欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：进一步降息将需要显著偏离通胀目标。 ...

不存在通胀持续低于目标水平的风险。 再次降息的门槛非常高。 欧洲央行执委Schnabel：欧洲央行处境不错。 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at new highs [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 192.34 points to 44,650.64, a rise of 0.43% [4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.27% to 6,280.46, marking its eighth record close this year [4] Company Highlights - Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion for the first time at closing [5] - Delta Airlines shares rose by 11.99% following a positive earnings outlook indicating a rebound in demand [8] - United Airlines and American Airlines also saw significant increases in their stock prices, rising by 14.33% and 12.72% respectively [8] Cryptocurrency Developments - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, climbing over 4% to $115,877.4, with earlier peaks exceeding $117,000 [14] - The surge in Bitcoin led to a significant number of liquidations in the market, with over 230,000 traders affected in the past 24 hours [14][16] Economic Commentary - Recent uncertainties in the market have eased, providing support for stock performance, as noted by Wells Fargo's global equity strategist [13] - President Trump urged the Federal Reserve to take swift action to lower interest rates, reflecting ongoing pressure on monetary policy [2][18] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that a rate cut could be discussed in the upcoming July meeting, with a 64% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with prices continuing to move downward in a volatile fashion, hitting new recent lows, and the price center of gravity continuing to shift downward due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [1][3]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates. There are pressures on the downstream start - up rates, and the price is expected to operate in a high - level range in the short - term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with a resumption of production expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, and an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the minutes of the Fed's last meeting boosted market optimism, with most policymakers believing that interest rate cuts later this year are appropriate. However, policymakers are still worried about the inflationary pressure brought by Trump's tariffs, and only a few officials think a rate cut could happen as early as this month [2]. - As of Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina has decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% compared to last week, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi undergoing maintenance and a decline in operating production capacity. As of the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises' factories increased by 81,000 tons [3]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% compared to last week [3]. - On July 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the ingot - casting volume of some electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, the arrival volume is still low, resulting in a short - term reduction in social inventory of aluminum ingots [3].

Group 1 - Silver TD prices have shown a significant increase, currently reported at 9009 yuan/kg, with a rise of 1.77% from the opening price of 8890 yuan/kg [1][4] - The highest price reached today was 9039 yuan/kg, while the lowest was 8885 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend in the silver market [1][4] - Resistance levels for silver TD are identified between 9040-9050 yuan/kg, with support levels at 8770-8780 yuan/kg [4] Group 2 - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, suggesting that two rate cuts this year are a possible outcome, although this prediction is subject to various uncertainties [3] - Daly emphasized the need for the Fed to balance the decision to cut rates to maintain economic stability, noting that inflation is gradually returning to the 2% target but has not fully achieved it [3] - There is a divergence within the Fed regarding the economic outlook, with some members, like Governor Waller, advocating for a more aggressive approach to rate cuts [3]

热点资讯 1. 7月10日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在吉隆坡会见俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫。双方就伊朗核问题交换意见。拉夫罗夫 介绍了俄方立场考虑。王毅表示，武力换不来和平，施压不解决问题，对话谈判才是根本出路。 2. 当地时间7月9日，特朗普宣布对铜征50%关税。中国外交部发言人毛宁对此表示：这个问题我们立场非常明确，我们一贯反 对泛化国家安全概念，我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。 3. 商务部回应美商务部长称可能于8月初与中方谈判代表会面：目前，双方在多个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通。 早盘速递 2025/7/11 4. 美联储官员穆萨莱姆表示， 当前经济形势良好， 关税的具体影响可能要到今年晚些时候或明年初才会完全显现出来。 5.旧金山联储主席戴利表示，她仍认为今年可能会有两次降息，并指出关税对价格的影响较预期更为温和的可能性正在上升。 重点关注 烧碱、纯苯、焦煤、尿素、菜油 夜盘表现 板块表现 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.75% 贵金属, 27.19% 油脂油料, ...

知情人士说，这位财政部长表示，在他们处理贸易公告时，他建议特朗普要有耐心。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在爱达荷州太阳谷对一屋子亿万富翁表示，美国总统特朗普与他的前老板 乔治·索罗斯有一个共同的性格特点：他们在进行高风险交易时都缺乏耐心。 贝森特周三在被称为"亿万富翁夏令营"的安伦公司（Allen & Co.）年度会议上发表了讲话。据在场人士 称，当被主持人要求比较他现任和前任老板时，贝森特表示，特朗普和索罗斯在性情、要求和不耐烦方 面都很相似。 贝森特定于下周前往日本，尽管财政部表示贸易问题不会在他访问期间被提及。预计他还将很快与中国 官员以及印度尼西亚的经济事务协调部长会面。 贝森特还对前白宫顾问、特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克进行了几次嘲讽，据报道他与马斯克曾发生冲突。 一位知情人士说，当被问及马斯克组建政党一事时，贝森特反问道："什么党？"然后他打趣说，马斯克 可能可以在火星上获得选票，这指的是马斯克希望通过其太空公司SpaceX将人类送上火星的雄心。 知情人士说，贝森特称赞特朗普有识别问题和找到解决方案的独特能力，但表示他在执行方面有时可能 会没有耐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for interest rate cuts may exceed expectations, and after fluctuations, gold prices are anticipated to rise again [1][6]. Market Performance - On July 10, international gold prices rebounded, closing up 0.32% after fluctuating between a high of $3330.16 and a low of $3310.15 [1]. - The dollar index experienced a rise but faced resistance at the mid-line, limiting the downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Economic Indicators - Some Federal Reserve officials indicated that inflation impacts are not yet visible, suggesting a delay until next year, which has pressured gold prices [3]. - However, the possibility of two interest rate cuts this year, as mentioned by Fed's Daly, has supported gold prices [5]. Future Projections - Economic growth consensus for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down from 2.2% to 1.5%, indicating a potential for more aggressive monetary easing by the Fed in the future [6]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts next year could lead to significant increases in gold prices, similar to or exceeding the gains seen in the past two years [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a potential top formation for gold prices, with risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 unless the price remains above the May moving average [8]. - Daily charts show that while gold prices have been fluctuating downwards, they remain above the support of the weekly ascending channel, suggesting a possible upcoming rebound [10]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading points for gold include support levels at $3313 or $3304 and resistance levels at $3334 or $3344 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $36.95 or $36.75, with resistance at $37.30 or $37.60 [10].

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - The US announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting August 1, prompting Brazilian President Lula to seek negotiations with the US and consider retaliatory measures if negotiations fail [1] - Lula emphasized that Brazil can survive without trading in US dollars and suggested that Trump should address tariff issues at the G20 [1] - The US Treasury Secretary hinted at the need for patience in trade discussions, comparing Trump's temperament to that of George Soros [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Major US stock indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.09%, S&P 500 up 0.27%, and Dow Jones up 0.43% [1][3] - Nvidia's stock rose 47% since the announcement of tariffs, reflecting strong performance in the tech sector [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 0.90%, with Alibaba rising over 2% and Netease dropping over 2% [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 were reported at 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [14] - The US Treasury yields showed slight changes, with the 10-year yield at 4.351% [5] - The dollar index increased by 0.10%, indicating a slight strengthening of the US dollar [5] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Tesla's stock rose by 4.73%, while AMD increased by 4.15% [2] - TSMC reported a 26.9% year-on-year increase in sales for June, with total sales for the first half of the year up 40% [11] - BYD announced its advanced parking assistance technology, claiming it can achieve L4-level autonomous parking [12]

Group 1 - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly believes that there may be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be smaller than expected [1] - Some companies are negotiating to share tariff costs, which reduces the burden on consumers, leading to a lower need to pass on costs [1] - The Fed's June meeting minutes revealed a divergence among officials regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation, with some expecting a one-time price increase while others foresee lasting effects [1][2] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that the effects of tariffs on prices may become more apparent in data from June to September [2] - Musalem emphasized that it is still too early to determine whether the inflation effects from tariffs will be temporary or persistent [2] - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 29-30, with investors currently expecting a rate cut in September based on futures contracts [3]