文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 秦楚媛 周昀锋 特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策后，或是出于对未来美国基本面的担忧，美元指数不涨反跌。考虑到对 个别国家和地区单独加征关税落地前仍是谈判窗口期，预计美元指数或波动加剧。中期维度下，美 元指数的交易逻辑或仍在于美国与欧日等非美经济体在货币政策以及基本面表现的差异，单纯的贸 易逆差收窄甚至转为顺差并不能支撑美元走强，同时美元指数或也难单边大幅下行。美元的长期逻 辑则相对复杂，且存在多个矛盾点。一是加征关税或率先引发贸易国货币走贬，与弱美元政策矛 盾。二是弱美元政策需要与同盟配合，采取人为操纵，这与美元维持国际货币地位矛盾。三是加征 关税背景下，美国通胀或反复并导致货币政策难以宽松，美元指数难以大幅走弱。 ▍ 美元指数的短期逻辑仍在于货政差和经济差。 特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策后，美元指数不涨反跌，日元和瑞郎作为传统避险货币表现亮眼。在 对个别国家和地区单独加征关税落地前，各经济体与美国的谈判存在不确定性，预计美元指数短 期维持高波动。中期维度下，美元指数的交易逻辑或仍在于美国与欧日等非美经济体在货币政策 以及基本面表现的差异，单纯的贸易逆差收窄甚至转为顺差并不能支撑美元走强，同时美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakening of the US dollar index since March is attributed to unexpected strength in the euro due to fiscal stimulus plans and market speculation around "Trump Recession," rather than the narrative of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" being the main cause [1][4]. Group 1: "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Concept - Stephen Miran's concept of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" suggests that the dollar's trajectory will follow two phases: an initial phase of strong dollar due to tariffs, followed by a weaker dollar phase due to currency agreements [2][12]. - The first phase, characterized by tariffs, is currently in effect, aligning with the strong dollar narrative promoted by the Trump administration [12]. Group 2: Impact of "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Narrative - The narrative surrounding the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" has circulated widely in the market, but it has not significantly influenced pricing, despite its weak dollar target seemingly correlating with the dollar index's decline [4][12]. - Concerns about a US recession are not as pronounced as they were in Q4 2023, indicating that the market's apprehension regarding a downturn is less than half of previous levels [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for the US Dollar Index - The expectation is that the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" narrative will not significantly impact the market in the short term, especially with the current economic data showing no clear signs of weakness [17]. - If Trump's tariff policies exceed expectations and the euro returns to a stronger fundamental position, the dollar index may experience a rebound [17].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a weak trend due to recent pullbacks and selling pressure, compounded by a strengthening US dollar index which has reduced bullish factors for gold [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has recently rebounded, indicating a potential strong upward trend, which may exert pressure on gold prices [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield has shown a strong bullish trend supported by the 200-day moving average, which could also negatively impact gold prices in the short term [3][4]. - Economic data releases, including the FHFA house price index and consumer confidence index, are expected to be favorable for gold prices, although uncertainty remains due to mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have encountered resistance in the $3050-$3060 range and are currently trading below the 5-day moving average, indicating a strengthening bearish sentiment [4]. - There is a potential for a rebound as gold tests the 10-day moving average support, but further declines are expected until prices stabilize above the 5-day moving average [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the US dollar to face downward pressure due to long-term economic challenges and uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's policies, suggesting that the dollar index may experience a "last hurrah" before a significant decline [1][2]. Summary by Sections Short-term Economic Outlook - The US is currently experiencing a short-term rebound in market expectations, but fiscal spending has not decreased as anticipated, with a 14% year-on-year increase in spending for the first two months of the year compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - The government initially planned to cut $2 trillion in spending but revised this to $1 trillion, indicating a lack of substantial fiscal tightening [1]. Long-term Economic Challenges - The US economy is on the brink of a long-term downtrend, primarily driven by an unsustainable debt cycle. The article outlines that the US economy is consumption-driven, heavily reliant on income and corporate profitability, which are influenced by financial leverage [2][3]. - The article references Ray Dalio's framework for understanding debt cycles, indicating that the US is currently in the "bubble burst stage," where debt defaults may soon occur [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve is expected to face significant challenges as it navigates through the debt cycle, with the potential for a loss of government creditworthiness as it moves from a phase of balance sheet expansion to one of increasing liabilities [4]. - The article suggests that the Fed may have limited options to control debt, with financial repression (lowering interest rates) and fiscal control being the two primary paths, but both face significant hurdles [4]. Currency Dynamics - The article analyzes the factors influencing the dollar index, including real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity, and monetary policy differences between the US and Europe [4][5]. - It predicts that the dollar may breach the 100 mark this year, particularly in the second and third quarters, contingent on economic performance and inflationary pressures in the US [6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The US is expected to face greater inflationary pressures this year, influenced by tariffs and potential labor market imbalances, while European inflation may ease due to lower energy prices [5][6]. - The article notes that market expectations for interest rate cuts differ significantly between the US and Europe, with the Fed facing more substantial risks of easing monetary policy [6].

作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨张铭心 图 源丨2 1世纪经济报道 梁远浩 摄 3月以来，人民币汇率月线上呈现稳中有升趋势。 月内，美元自高位回落，美国总统特朗普的关税政策落地不及此前市场预期，加之关税政策反 复导致市场对美经济前景担忧，美元指数持续走低，在岸、离岸人民币汇率自3月首个交易日 （3月3日）的7 . 2 9 3 1、7 . 3 0 2 6一度升破7 . 2 3。 3月1 7日、3月1 8日离岸和在岸人民币汇率分 别触及月内最高值 ，为7 . 2 2 6 2、7 . 2 2 1 6。 北京时间3月2 0日凌晨，美联储议息会议决定将联邦基金目标利率维持在4 . 2 5％至4 . 5％区间 不 变 。 同 时 ， 美 联 储 将 2 0 2 5 年 美 国 关 键 通 胀 指 标 PCE 同 比 增 速 从 1 2 月 预 估 的 2 . 5% 上 调 至 2 . 7%、核心PCE同比增速从1 2月预估的2 . 5%上调至2 . 8%。 点阵图显示，1 9位美联储官员中，有4位预计2 0 2 5年不降息，有4位预计将降息1次，9位预计 降息2次，2位预计降息3次及以上。中金公司分析称，点阵图显示2 0 2 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the patterns of gold price fluctuations, emphasizing that while gold can outperform inflation in the long term, its price is subject to significant volatility, which can lead to substantial losses if investment timing is poor [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Prices - In January 1980, the average gold price was $755 per ounce, followed by a 20-year bear market, with the price dropping to $280 per ounce by December 1999, a decline of 63% [3]. - In November 2011, the average gold price reached $1,771 per ounce, but a subsequent four-year bear market saw it fall to $1,062 per ounce by December 2015, a decrease of 40% [4]. - Historical examples illustrate that gold has experienced significant fluctuations in value over centuries, such as during the Song Dynasty in China, where gold's value relative to copper coins varied dramatically [4]. Group 2: Gold's Scarcity and Utility - Gold's scarcity is not a concern, as it is formed through extreme cosmic events, making its natural formation on Earth virtually impossible [5]. - The article outlines gold's historical role as a payment and wealth storage medium, highlighting its characteristics that make it preferable over other materials for wealth preservation [7]. - In modern times, gold primarily serves as a means of wealth storage, with 2024 gold consumption in China projected at 985 tons, primarily for jewelry and investment purposes [8]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Price Trends - Short-term gold price trends are influenced by three main factors: a declining US dollar index, lower interest rates, and heightened international tensions, all of which tend to drive gold prices up [17][19][22]. - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices rise when the risks associated with the currency system increase, particularly when the status of strong currencies is undermined [24]. - Historical analysis reveals three significant bull markets in gold since the end of the gold standard, each driven by factors that weakened the status of dominant currencies [25][27][30]. Group 4: Current Bull Market Dynamics - The current bull market in gold, which began in 2019, is primarily driven by concerns over the rapid growth of US debt, with the fiscal deficit rate surpassing 4% in 2019 and reaching 15.7% in 2020 [34]. - Additionally, the rise of China as a global power poses a challenge to the US dollar, contributing to the ongoing bullish sentiment in gold [36]. - The article concludes that gold remains an essential asset for wealth storage and risk diversification in the face of currency system uncertainties [14].

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a trend of gradual stabilization amidst fluctuations by 2025, influenced by both external and internal factors [1] External Factors - Increased uncertainty in the global economic environment, particularly due to the U.S. government's intensified measures against China, is likely to lead to greater volatility in the RMB exchange rate [1] - Recent market concerns regarding Trump's tariff threats have diminished, contributing to a weaker U.S. dollar index and declining U.S. Treasury yields, which may help stabilize the RMB [1] Internal Factors - Domestic issues such as insufficient demand and economic structural adjustments are also impacting the stability of the RMB exchange rate [1] - Continuous policy efforts are expected to improve the economic fundamentals in China, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate [1] - Specific measures include the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, and a fiscal deficit target of around 4% to boost consumption and investment efficiency [1] Central Bank Actions - In extraordinary circumstances, the central bank may take various measures, such as moderate intervention in the foreign exchange market and adjustments to foreign exchange reserves, to ensure the exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable equilibrium level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the offshore RMB exchange rate against the USD, highlighting the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) measures to stabilize the currency, including the issuance of central bank bills in Hong Kong [1][3][11]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - On March 3, the offshore RMB fell below the 7.3 mark against the USD, with the current rate at 7.2919, reflecting a slight increase of 0.11% [2][19]. - The RMB has shown a dual-directional fluctuation trend over the past decade, influenced by various factors including geopolitical events and economic conditions [12][15]. PBOC's Measures - In January, the PBOC issued 600 billion RMB in central bank bills in Hong Kong, followed by an additional issuance of 400 billion RMB in three-month bills and 200 billion RMB in one-year bills in February [3][11]. - The issuance of these bills is aimed at enriching high-credit RMB financial products in Hong Kong and improving the RMB yield curve [7][9]. Market Reactions - Following the PBOC's issuance of offshore central bank bills, both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced a strong upward trend in February [11]. - Experts indicate that the recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are normal, and despite some periods of depreciation, the RMB has appreciated compared to the end of the previous year [15]. Interest Rate Trends - Many banks have recently lowered their USD deposit rates, with some rates being cut by half, while others remain above 4% [17][18]. - The decline in USD deposit rates is attributed to expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a stable RMB exchange rate [18].

Core Viewpoint - The external pressure on the RMB exchange rate is currently manageable due to the decline in the US dollar index, the strong implementation of the central bank's stable exchange rate policy, and the good performance of domestic A-shares and other risk assets, suggesting a phase of narrow fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [1][4]. Group 1: External Pressure and Policy Response - The US dollar index has shown a volatile downward trend this year, primarily due to the slower-than-expected implementation of tariff policies following Trump's inauguration [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy report indicates a shift from "strengthening expectation guidance" to "stabilizing market expectations," emphasizing the importance of maintaining stable exchange rate targets [2]. - The central bank has issued a total of 1,200 billion yuan in offshore central bank bills this year, significantly higher than historical levels, which supports the stability of the RMB [2][3]. Group 2: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential risk of increased tariffs imposed by the US on China remains a major long-term risk factor for the RMB exchange rate, with the possibility of further escalation [3][4]. - There exists a discrepancy in expectations regarding the extent and pace of US tariffs on China, which may not meet market expectations, and there is potential for positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [3][4]. - The recent "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" released by the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission may help stabilize foreign direct investment in China, countering the risks posed by potential US tariffs [3].

看ip，刚到家，第一件事就是先想着上钟来了。 北京到临海有直达车，车程将近8小时，屁股都坐硬了，中间停靠的站点太多，乘坐体验很不好，但每天也就这么一班车没得选，每次到家都差不多晚上9 点半。 周末的新闻我倒是在车上大致看了一遍，就说几件最重要的事。 影响最大的是周五美国公布的非农就业数据很好，大超市场预期，严重削弱了美元在2025年的降息预期。我截一张国外下注网站的走势图给你们看看。 蓝线代表全年降息一次（0.25%），在周五经济数据公布后已经攀升至概率第一，有29%。红线代表全年降息两次（0.5%），之前一直概率领先，但周五 被蓝线反超，目前概率是21%。 央行这边也有一些应对，暂停买入国债操作，这让债券利率略有反弹，算是对冲了美元的强势冲击。 如果上面的内容你看着有点绕，我可以给一个简单粗暴的结论，这事偏利空，对全球资本市场，对港股都不是好消息，a股有外汇防火墙，影响会小一 点，但问题是a股现在自己正在闹腹泻，所以对周一不友好。 …… 周末重要的事就这一件，另外还有一些鸡零狗碎的，过一遍你有个印象就行。 1、财政部10日开了个国信办发布会，会上说了2025年赤字规模将有较大幅度增加，但是记者问具体数字的时 ...