Group 1 - The current trading price of silver TD is around 9887 yuan per kilogram, showing a decline of 1.76% from the opening price of 10111 yuan per kilogram [1] - The highest price reached today was 10124 yuan per kilogram, while the lowest was 9872 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bearish short-term trend in silver TD [1][5] Group 2 - The FOMC's internal divisions are likely to be reflected in the "dot plot," which shows Federal Reserve officials' predictions for future benchmark interest rates [3] - The dot plot may reveal whether officials are inclined to continue rate cuts in the upcoming meetings in October and December, with a first-time release of 2026 rate forecasts [3][4] - Market expectations are pricing in significant easing, with investors anticipating a total of 75 basis points cut this year and another 75 basis points in 2026 [3] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to have a significant negative impact on the US dollar, reducing its attractiveness to international capital [3][4]

周三(9月17日)亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅下跌，现报3680美元/盎司附近。周二(9月16日)，现货黄金价格 一度突破3700美元/盎司，创下历史新高，反映投资者加码押注美联储本周将降息。特朗普关税方面传 来新消息，美商务部考虑对更多进口汽车零部件加征关税，这利好黄金避险买盘。 金价周二触及3703.07美元/盎司的纪录新高。美元走弱提振了金价。美元兑主要货币跌至逾两个月低 点。 追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周二下跌0.7%，至96.64，为7月1日以来最低。美元走弱使 得黄金对其他货币持有者而言变得更便宜。 OANDA MarketPulse分析师Zain Vawda说："全球经济增长不确定性，以及地缘政治风险，持续让避险 需求处在高点。但黄金涨势主要来自对美联储将大举降息的期待。" 独立金属交易员Tai Wong说："黄金因美元大幅走弱而飙升，美元已跌至7月以来未见见过的低点。不 过，在周三至关重要的美联储决策出炉之前，市场可能吹起谨慎的风，部分获利了结并不令人意外。" 美商务部：考虑对更多进口汽车零部件加征关税 据英国路透社报道，美国商务部周二表示，将在未来几周内，基于国家安全理由，考虑行业 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The lead price is fluctuating without an obvious driving force [1] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,055 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,001.5 dollars/ton, down 0.87% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 54,978 lots, a decrease of 3,688 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,516 lots, a decrease of 964 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 45,095 lots, a decrease of 1,961 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 165,625 lots, a decrease of 277 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -48 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton [1] Import Profit and Loss - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -363.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.07 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -472.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 94.45 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 59,417 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 227,850 tons, an increase of 2,225 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] Other Data - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan/ton; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 29,350 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [1] Group 3: News Summary - The US Treasury Secretary said that the Fed has been lagging in response, and the market is digesting the expectation of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut from now to the end of the year [2] - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have increased for 11 consecutive months [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

本周二稍早公布的数据显示，美国8月零售销售数据增幅高于预期，显示美国消费者支出依然强劲，但这几乎没有改变市场对降息的预期。 Baird私人财富管理投资策略师Ross Mayfield表示："任何具有韧性的经济数据都只会强化联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)内部鹰派的立场……并可能让美联 储主席鲍威尔在措辞上比市场所希望的更为鹰派。" 投资者同时对其他消息反应平淡，包括美国参议院确认白宫经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事，以及上诉法院驳回特朗普要求罢免美联储理事丽莎·库 克的请求。 Principal资产管理公司全球首席策略师Seema Shah认为："尽管劳动力需求正在放缓，但当前的衰退风险依然有限。如果美联储此时降息50个基点，那更像 是出于政治压力，而非经济必要。相较之下，温和的25个基点降息才是更恰当的选择，它既能让美联储领先于经济放缓，又不会对初步的压力迹象反应过 度。" 美国银行最新月度调查显示，随着对关税引发经济衰退的担忧减弱，全球基金经理对股票的看多情绪升至自今年2月以来最高水平。 美东时间本周二，美国三大股指在震荡交投中收低，投资者在美联储公布利率决议前保持谨慎。 目前，投资者普遍预计美联储将在本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold prices have surged to a historic high of over $3700 per ounce ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The confirmation of Milan as a Federal Reserve Board member may influence the voting dynamics at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with potential support for a larger rate cut of 50 basis points or more [1] - Market expectations indicate that the U.S. job market is weakening significantly, leading to predictions of three rate cuts by the end of the year, with some analysts suggesting a possible 50 basis point cut in September [1] Group 2 - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" in the global monetary system and a weakening U.S. economy are expected to provide continued support for gold prices in the medium to long term [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider gold-related investment opportunities through gold ETFs, such as the Gold Fund ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400), especially if there is a short-term price adjustment [1]

2025.09.17 本文字数：3029，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 韦薇 美联储本周的降息预期、人工智能（AI）板块的持续推动，正将全球资本市场推向高潮。 降息幅度仍存分歧 华尔街机构之所以认为美联储降息"板上钉钉"，是因为就业市场明显放缓，通胀虽高于目标值，但并未 失控。 继8月公布的7月非农就业数据"爆雷"后，最新的8月数据亦令人大跌眼镜。美国8月非农新增就业2.2万 人，大幅低于预期，失业率4.3%创近四年新高。此外，6月和7月非农就业岗位又合计下修2.1万人。换 言之，实际上6月的非农是负增长，这也是疫情以来的首次实际负增长。上月，美国劳工部更将5月和6 月的数据累计下修超10万人，气得美国总统特朗普直接要求解雇美劳工统计局局长。 美国8月CPI同比2.9%，预期2.9%，前值2.7%，通胀并未高于预期，而美国9月6日当周首次申请失业救 济人数26.3万人，超过预期的23.5万人。因此，9月11日的CPI数据公布后，华尔街机构均认为9月降息 概率达到了100%。 "通胀和就业数据同时支持降息。面对这样的数据，鲍威尔也没法继续硬刚。现在的悬念是降25BP，还 是直降50BP。"外汇专家、浙商 ...

2025.09. 17 本文字数：3029，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 韦薇 美联储本周的降息预期、人工智能（AI）板块的持续推动，正将全球资本市场推向高潮。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将公布9月利率决议和经济预期摘 要，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行货币政策新闻发布会。市场预期美联储此次将降息25个基点（BP）， 将美国政策利率区间下调至4%〜4.25%。 据华尔街投行预测，本轮周期可能会降息5〜6次，甚至出现了9月降息50个BP的预期。尽管未来仍存 各种不确定性，近期的美股、日本股市、中国股市在AI的驱动下，依然在强劲冲高。 多位华尔街资管机构的投资经理对第一财经记者表示，每轮牛市都有一条主线，中、美股市的主线无 疑是AI，尤其是甲骨文的"疯狂"财报点燃了市场热情，进一步明确了各大科技公司未来在AI领域的 资本开支将持续增长。高盛数据显示，对冲基金此前一直是净卖家，但从上周三开始出现了逆转，机 构普遍认为应"逢跌买入"。 降息幅度仍存分歧 华尔街机构之所以认为美联储降息"板上钉钉"，是因为就业市场明显放缓，通胀虽高于目标值，但并 未失控。 继8月公布的7月非农就业数 ...

Market Performance - On September 16, U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.27%, S&P 500 down 0.13%, and Nasdaq down 0.07% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 2% and Oracle up over 1%, while Microsoft and Nvidia fell more than 1% [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 1.76%, reaching its highest level since February 2022 [3] - Notable gains included NIO up over 8%, Baidu up over 7%, JD.com and iQIYI up over 3%, and Alibaba rising over 2% [3][4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose on September 16, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by $1.22 to $64.52 per barrel (up 1.93%) and Brent crude oil futures rising by $1.03 to $68.47 per barrel (up 1.53%) [5] - Spot gold prices briefly surpassed $3700 per ounce [6] Retail Sales Data - The U.S. Commerce Department reported a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales for August, exceeding economists' expectations [10] - Excluding automobiles, sales rose by 0.7%, indicating consumer confidence [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations suggest a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 25 basis point reduction fully priced in according to CME's FedWatch tool [10] - Analysts anticipate that the Fed may lower rates to support the labor market, despite ongoing inflation concerns [11]

美联储官员预计将在周三通过降息来支撑疲软的美国劳动力市场，将标志着政策的转变。此前由于担心 关税引发通胀，美联储今年以来维持利率不变。美国总统特朗普也在持续施压，他本周再次推动"大幅 降息"。政治插曲也为谁将出席本周的政策会议带来了悬念，不过出席会议的人员名单很可能周一晚间 已经确定，之前参议院及时确认了新任美联储理事的提名，且上诉法院裁决允许美联储理事库克暂时留 任。投资者还将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，解读最新的经济预测，判断未来几个月利率的可能 走向。相关预测将于华盛顿时间下午2点与利率决定一同公布，鲍威尔的新闻发布会将在30分钟后举 行。美联储观察人士预计，由于官员们在就业和通胀方面存在分歧，预计不会承诺激进的降息步伐。 ...

美东时间周二，美国三大股指在震荡交投中收低，投资者在美联储公布利率决议前保持谨慎。 目前投资者普遍预计美联储将在周三(北京时间周四凌晨2点)宣布降息25个基点，以对冲美国劳动力市场持续恶化的趋势，这一状况已在近 期多项经济数据中有所体现。 市场关注的焦点在于，美联储对全年利率路径的预测，以及决策者们预计在2025年结束前究竟还会再降息一次，还是两次。 周二稍早公布的数据显示，美国8月零售销售数据增幅高于预期，显示美国消费者支出依然强劲，但这几乎没有改变市场对降息的预期。 美国银行最新月度调查显示，随着对关税引发经济衰退的担忧减弱，全球基金经理对股票的看多情绪升至今年2月以来最高水平。 市场动态 截至收盘，道指跌125.18点，跌幅为0.27%，报45758.27点；纳指跌14.79点，跌幅为0.07%，报22333.96点；标普500指数跌8.49 点，跌幅为0.13%，报6606.79点。 美股行业ETF中，公用事业ETF收跌1.82%，区域银行ETF跌1.04%，银行业ETF跌0.99%，科技行业ETF、网络股指数ETF、全球科技股 指数ETF至多跌0.35%，半导体ETF则收涨0.01%，可选消费ETF ...