基本面： 周一（11月24日）现货白银小幅走低，关注支撑位多单布局。白银现货价格49.90附近。美联储的政策基调一向是黄金白银市场的"风向标"，而本周的转变 尤为引人注目。上周五，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在公开讲话中罕见释放鸽派信号，他表示美联储"仍可能在不危及通胀目标的情况下，在短期内降低利 率"。这一表态如同一剂强心针，迅速点燃了市场对12月降息的热情。原本在过去两周，受几位美联储官员对通胀高于2%目标的担忧影响，交易员们曾大幅 下调降息预期——从更高的概率回落至仅40%左右。但威廉姆斯的发言一出，局面瞬间逆转。联邦基金期货交易员将12月降息概率上调至70%-74%，创下近 期新高。这不仅仅是数字的跳动，更是市场情绪的集体转向。黄金的避险属性历来与地缘风险高度绑定，而本周的国际动态呈现出明显的两极分化。一方 面，俄乌冲突的和平前景初露端倪，略微打压了金价的避险需求；另一方面，中东地区的紧张升级，又为黄金注入新的不确定性。这种"双刃剑"效应，让金 价在全球金市中维持了微妙的企稳状态。 这种押注的激增，直接为金价提供了强劲支撑。周五早盘，金价一度承压下跌逾1%，探至4023美元/盎司附近，眼看就要跌破心理防 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract operating in the range of 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market will likely maintain high - level oscillations, with the SHFE main contract in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [2]. Tin - In the short term, although macro fluctuations are large, considering the limited supply recovery this year and the strong fundamentals, a bullish stance on tin price corrections is maintained. The focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [4]. Zinc - The zinc market is likely to oscillate. The price has limited downward space in the short term, but the fundamentals also provide limited impetus for continuous upward movement. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 22800 [6]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract reference range is 85000 - 87800, with attention on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and other macro drivers [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 113000 - 118000. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 12200 - 12600. The focus is on steel - mill production cuts and ferronickel prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market may first decline and then oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton [15]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market is expected to have low - level oscillations, with the main price fluctuation range likely between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [17]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. For trading strategies, try to go long around 50,000 on the futures side; hold/sell put options on the options side, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 21380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss was 1798 yuan/ton, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.63 [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a 2.39% increase; electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a 3.52% increase [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price dropped to 21350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 4.48% [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a 2.42% decrease; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a 1.06% increase [2]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price dropped to 291300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import loss was 16328.60 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, a 15.13% decrease. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16090 tons, a 53.09% increase [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The import loss was 4165 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a 2.85% increase; imports were 1.88 million tons, a 16.94% decrease [6]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The refined - scrap price difference was 2675 yuan/ton, a 12.75% decrease [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a 2.62% decrease; imports were 28.21 million tons, a 15.61% decrease [8]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 116700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a 0.84% increase; imports were 38164 tons, a 124.36% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a 0.38% increase; exports were 35.81 million tons, a 14.43% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 92300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10%. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price dropped to 6807 dollars/ton, a 2.51% decrease [15]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a 5.73% increase; demand was 126961 tons, an 8.70% increase [15]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained at 9550 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 monthly spread increased by 200% [17]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a 7.46% increase; exports were 4.51 million tons, a 35.82% decrease [17]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The N - type re - feedstock average price remained at 52300 yuan/ton. The main contract price rose to 53360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% [18]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production was 2.71 million tons, a 1.12% increase; monthly production was 13.40 million tons, a 3.08% increase [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 24, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, alumina, nickel, tin, rebar, methanol futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year Treasury bond futures will probably oscillate widely; aluminum, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, PVC, and glass futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; thirty - year Treasury bond futures, coking coal, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures will probably oscillate weakly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 24, 2025, index futures are likely to oscillate strongly. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4457 and 4511 points, and support levels are 4400 and 4369 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2968 and 2994 points, and support levels are 2979 and 2963 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 6872 and 6970 points, and support levels are 6700 and 6622 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7116 and 7211 points, and support levels are 6956 and 6900 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to oscillate widely on November 24, 2025, with support levels at 108.36 and 108.31 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.54 and 108.59 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 115.4 and 115.2 yuan, and resistance levels at 116.0 and 116.1 yuan [2][3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 939.6 and 945.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 930.0 and 926.9 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 1244 and 12163 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11680 and 11649 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, alumina, nickel, and tin futures are likely to oscillate strongly; aluminum futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 86500 and 86800 yuan/ton, with support levels at 85600 and 85200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil, soda ash, fuel oil, PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are likely to oscillate weakly. For example, the crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels of 441 and 433 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 450 and 453 yuan/barrel [3][4]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil futures are likely to oscillate weakly [4][6]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **International Events**: The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa. China announced relevant initiatives, and leaders had bilateral meetings. The US is promoting a peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but negotiations have not reached an agreement [8][9][13]. - **Domestic Economic Data**: From January to October, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 621.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [10][12]. - **Domestic Policies**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will support enterprises in Xiongan New Area. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promotes urban renewal and urban management in communities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducts typical case collection [10]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On November 21, 2025, index futures showed a weak downward trend. Multiple factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the AI bubble led to the recent market correction, but Chinese assets are still expected to have a "slow bull" [18][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 21, 2025, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the short - term downward pressure on the ten - year Treasury bond futures slightly increased [43]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 21, 2025, gold and silver futures showed a downward trend. The short - term downward pressure increased, but in November, they are expected to oscillate strongly [49][55]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Most base metal futures showed a downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [60][64][72]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Energy and chemical futures showed different trends on November 21, 2025. For example, lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, and the short - term downward pressure increased [80]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Agricultural futures showed a weak downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [125][127][130].

11月24日黄金价格。 ·金店重点看这里：老凤祥、老庙黄金都是1295元/克，较昨日跌10元；周生生1293元/克，跌3元；周六 福1259元/克，跌7元；周大福、潮宏基1295元/克持平，菜百1272元/克性价比依旧能打，水贝实时价 1078元/克。 2025年11月24日黄金行情速报，1分钟吃透关键信息。 ·先看大盘：伦敦现货黄金冲高4076美元后回落，跌破4050美元报4046美元/盎司，日内跌0.49%；国内 实时金价924元/克，回收价914元/克，变现的朋友可以参考。 现在黄金因为美联储降息预期分歧震荡，接下来PPI和零售数据是关键，会影响后续走势！想入手的建 议多观望。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Trend**: The precious metals market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations. The market is currently in a special stage of "ambiguous policy expectations + official data vacuum", and prices are mainly determined by the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts [3][4][6]. - **Gold**: In the long - term, factors supporting the strength of precious metals remain unchanged. After a rapid rise in October, the market needs to consolidate through oscillations. In the short - term, gold is in a high - level wide - range oscillation. Technically, it is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $3950 - 4000 and resistance at $4200. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range, showing no clear long or short signals [4]. - **Silver**: In the short - term, silver prices are also determined by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, with increased volatility and high - level wide - range oscillations. Technically, it is in an ascending triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $48 - 48.5 and resistance at $55. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range. The long - term price center of silver will follow that of gold. The silver market has a fragile supply chain, and its price volatility is higher than that of gold [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - influencing Factors - **Fed Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is unclear. There are still differences within the Fed on whether to cut rates in December. The market is pricing in three rate cuts in 2026. After the Fed's dovish remarks on Friday, the probability of a December rate cut rebounded to 71%. The lack of official data for the December Fed decision will lead to repeated fluctuations in the market around rate - cut expectations [9]. - **Fed Independence**: The selection of the next Fed chair and related events may trigger market expectations regarding the Fed's independence and its interest rate cut path in December 2025 and 2026 [9]. 3.2 ETF Position Tracking - **Gold and Silver ETF Positions**: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 3.43 tons to 1040.57 tons this week. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased to 15257.92 tons, with a decrease of 39.5 tons this week. This shows that institutional investors' physical allocation demand for gold and silver is at a high level [11][33]. - **October Global Physical Gold ETFs**: Global physical gold ETFs achieved capital inflows for five consecutive months, with a single - month inflow of $8.2 billion in October. Gold ETF trading volume soared to a record $17 billion per day, mainly driven by North American funds [38]. 3.3 Exchange Inventories The report mentions gold and silver exchange inventories but does not provide specific analysis content. Only the data sources are given, which are WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [48][54]. 3.4 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences The report only mentions domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [60]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios The report only mentions precious metal ratios and does not provide specific analysis content. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index The report only mentions the gold ETF volatility index and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [70].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the A-share market are influenced by global market trends, particularly concerns over the "AI bubble," expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and cautious investor sentiment, although the fundamental factors supporting the Chinese stock market's upward trend remain unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 24, 2025, the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index increased by 0.20%, with notable gains from stocks such as Binjiang Group (up 4.64%) and China National Materials International (up 3.06%) [1]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) saw a slight increase of 0.09%, with a trading volume of 60.89 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.14% [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Huatai Securities reported that recent debates around AI narratives and tightening liquidity have contributed to increased market volatility, but the current market adjustment shows potential for support around the late September market center [2]. - China Galaxy Securities noted that the A-share market exhibits a "high cut low" characteristic, driven by previous gains and heightened market concerns, yet the upward trend in corporate profits and industrial development remains intact [2]. Group 3: Index Composition - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index accounted for 21.64% of the index, with Huagong Technology and Kaiying Network being the top two [3]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index selects 100 companies with high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow from the CSI 500 Index, providing diverse investment options for investors [2].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $4044 per ounce, showing limited movement after a previous decline to $4023 per ounce, but rebounded to $4100 following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, closing at approximately $4065 per ounce, reflecting a weekly decline of 0.47% [1] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, with traders raising the probability of a December rate cut to 70%-74%, a significant rise from a previous 40% [3] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year yield dropping to 3.52% and the 10-year yield to 4.067%, has contributed to the stabilization of gold prices as lower yields reduce the attractiveness of bonds, leading to a shift of funds towards non-yielding assets like gold [1][3] Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with a revised negative growth in August and rising unemployment rates, which has intensified speculation about the Fed's future actions [4] - The geopolitical landscape is mixed, with potential peace prospects in the Russia-Ukraine conflict slightly reducing gold's safe-haven demand, while escalating tensions in the Middle East inject new uncertainties [4] - The recent proposal by Trump regarding Ukraine has brought the issue to the forefront of European leaders' agendas, with various responses indicating ongoing geopolitical complexities that could affect market sentiment [5] Technical Analysis - The gold price is facing resistance around the $4080 level, with potential support at $4020/3990, indicating a short-term bearish outlook as the market continues to test these levels [7] - The formation of a potential double top pattern suggests that gold may experience further adjustments, and traders should closely monitor the $4000 threshold for significant movements [7]

二是纯债市场扰动有限。央行维持支持性货币政策，近期重启国债买卖，资金面宽松，纯债收益率难以 大幅上行。流动性宽松预期叠加资产荒背景下，转债市场估值有望得到支撑。 近期权益市场受局部地缘冲突、12月美联储降息预期降温以及年底收官部分机构止盈等因素扰动，主要 股票指数呈现高位震荡行情。受此影响，11月以来中证转债、上证转债、深证转债分别上涨1.39%、 1.15%、1.64%。相比主要股票指数，转债指数表现更为强势，转债市场情绪再度来到年内高点，期间 深证转债突破8月高点创年内新高。（数据来源：wind，截至2025年11月14日） 转债的全称是"可转换公司债券"，简单理解，它是一种可以在约定时间按照约定价格转换为股票的债 券。转债与普通信用债最大的区别是转债的转股权，它赋予投资者在一定期间内可以按照一定的规则转 换为本公司的股票（通常称为"正股"）。转债的转股权是投资者的一项权利而非义务，投资者既可以选 择行使转股权将手中的转债转换为股票，也可以选择将其作为一只债券持有至到期。 转债主要有四个特征：一是转债仍为债券，它需要定期支付本金和票息；二是在转股期限内转债可以按 照一定规则转换为股票；三是由于转债的转股权 ...

摘要今日周一（11月24日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4040美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4047.48美元/盎司，跌幅0.43%，最高上探至4076.69美元/盎司，最低触及4042.45美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。分析师表示，预计本周黄金将维持窄幅震荡。 今日周一（11月24日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4040美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4047.48美元/盎司，跌幅0.43%，最高上探至4076.69美元/盎司，最低触及4042.45美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。分析师表示，预计本周黄金将维持窄幅震荡。 【要闻速递】 即将公布的零售销售数据、生产者物价指数(PPI)报告以及其他数据，可能为美国经济健康状况提供新 的线索。若美国数据不及预期，可能重新点燃美联储降息押注——有望推动黄金重回每盎司4100美元上 方，"他说，"但如果强劲数据继续降低降息概率，黄金可能跌破每盎司4000美元的关键支撑位，进而向 每盎司3970美元和3930美元区间靠拢。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 黄金目前依旧处于震荡态势。周末期间，诸多消息并未能促使黄金摆脱震荡格局 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the USD/CAD exchange rate's slight decline due to the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, alongside fluctuations in international oil prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's officials show mixed signals regarding interest rate cuts, with a 71% probability of a rate cut in December according to CME data, while the Bank of Canada maintains its rate at 5% and emphasizes that inflation has not yet reached its target [1] - The 10-year yield spread between the US and Canada has narrowed to 0.35%, indicating a weakening support for the Canadian dollar, with upcoming US and Canadian inflation data expected to be pivotal [1] Group 2 - International oil prices are fluctuating between $77 and $78 per barrel, with doubts about OPEC+ production cuts putting pressure on oil prices, which in turn affects the commodity-linked Canadian dollar [1] - Canada's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, demonstrating economic resilience that supports the Bank of Canada's policy stance, although weak oil prices limit the Canadian dollar's rebound potential [1] - The technical analysis indicates a narrow trading range for the USD/CAD around 1.4094, with key support at 1.4087 and resistance between 1.4105 and 1.4110, suggesting a cautious trading strategy based on oil price movements [3]