Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the yield per unit may be further reduced, the overall production remains high. The import profit of foreign corn is declining. In the short - term, the domestic corn spot is relatively strong, but there is a potential selling pressure later. The corn starch spot is also strong due to the strength of corn, but the 01 starch on the futures market is expected to decline in the short - term [4][6][7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Futures Disk - For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2168, 2237, and 2264 respectively, with price drops of - 7, - 8, - 8 and percentage drops of - 0.32%, - 0.36%, - 0.35%. Their trading volumes are 405,905, 43,153, 1,958 with volume changes of - 4.81%, - 6.73%, 47.89%, and open interests are 932,364, 322,392, 16,703 with changes of - 1.44%, 4.02%, 0.57% [2]. - For corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2473, 2552, 2607 respectively, with price drops of - 7, - 8, - 5 and percentage drops of - 0.28%, - 0.31%, - 0.19%. Their trading volumes are 88,848, 889, 72 with volume changes of - 18.46%, 3.37%, 100.00%, and open interests are 219,992, 6,328, 551 with changes of 1.29%, 1.61%, 5.76% [2]. Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang is 1995 yuan, Songyuan Jiji is 2070 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2350 yuan, Shouguang is 2280 yuan, Jinzhou Port is 2210 yuan, Nantong Port is 2320 yuan, and Guangdong Port is 2370 yuan. The price in Shouguang increased by 10 yuan, while others remained unchanged. The corresponding basis is - 269, - 194, 86, 16, 42, 56, 106 [2]. - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng is 2680 yuan, COFCO is 2700 yuan, Cargill is 2800 yuan, Yufeng is 2890 yuan, Jinyu Corn is 2800 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2900 yuan, and Hengren Industry and Trade is 2820 yuan. All prices remained unchanged, and the corresponding basis is 128, 148, 248, 338, 248, 348, 268 [2]. Spreads - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 is - 69 with a change of 1, C05 - C09 is - 27 with no change, C09 - C01 is 96 with a change of - 1 [2]. - Starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 79 with a change of 1, CS05 - CS09 is - 55 with a change of - 3, CS09 - CS01 is 134 with a change of 2 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 343 with a change of 3, CS01 - C01 is 305 with no change, CS05 - C05 is 315 with no change [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment Corn - The U.S. corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the yield per unit will be further reduced, the production remains high. The import profit of foreign corn is declining, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2137 yuan. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable at around 2210 yuan, and the northeast corn spot price is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is still large. The wheat price in North China has risen to around 2500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, making corn more cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. Some enterprises are building inventory in the northeast. The supply of northeast corn is low recently, and traders' hoarding sentiment is strong. The 01 corn futures contract is oscillating weakly, and the spot basis is strengthening. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2770 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also strong. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 110.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still making good profits. The 01 starch futures contract is oscillating narrowly following the corn, but the North China corn price may decline in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. It is expected that the 01 starch futures contract still has room to decline in the short - term [7]. Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. For example, on November 20, 2025, for the C2605 - P - 2160.DCE option, the underlying asset price is 2237, and the closing price is 20.50; for the C2601 - P - 2080.DCE option, the underlying asset price is 2168, and the closing price is 3.00 [11]. Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread between the corn starch and corn 01 contracts [13][15][19].

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 20 日） ②进口大豆升贴水报价：墨西哥湾(12 月船期)240 美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比持平；美国西岸(12 月 船期)225 美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比持平；巴西港口(12 月船期)210 美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相 比持平。 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米延续震荡，主力 | 2601 | 合约在 | 10 | 日均线支撑下以小阳线收盘。本周前 | 两个交易日，玉米远期 | 2611 | 合约领跌，近月 | 2601 | 合约跟跌，市场担心反弹结束 | | | | | | 后期价遇阻调整。现货市场中北港上量，玉米报价承压下行。近期北港玉米到货 | 量略显提升，加之期货市场未继续上涨，市场气氛受到一定的影响，价格略有回 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 调趋势。东北产区价格也结束上涨的模式，行情 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market has a tightened global balance, with the bottom of import costs possibly emerging, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate [3][5] - The palm oil market is suppressed by over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia, but recent export improvements provide support. It may reverse the inventory build - up in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the strategy is to view it as oscillatory, turning bullish if production drops [7][8][10] - The sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season. With weak external markets and high import profits, the suggestion is to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [12][13] - The cotton market has weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year. After some negative factors were digested by previous price drops, short - term prices are expected to continue to oscillate [16][17] - The egg market's short - term focus is on demand support. Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures will likely oscillate. In the medium - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [20][21] - The pig market's long - term trend is bearish due to supply surplus, but short - term counter - rallies are possible. The recommended strategies are reverse spreads first, followed by short - selling on rallies [23][24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined after reaching the cost line, and Brazilian soybean premiums fell by 3 - 10 cents/bu. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly by 30 yuan/ton, with good sales and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3492 million tons, up from last week's 2.0776 million tons. Last week, soybeans and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In Brazil, soybean planting in areas with less rainfall in the early stage is expected to go smoothly as rainfall recovers, with a planting progress of 71% as of last Thursday. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was cut by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were also reduced, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton cut in inventory [3] - **Strategy**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward space needs more production cuts. With high domestic inventories, soybean meal is expected to oscillate [5] Oils - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, domestic oil prices opened high and closed low. ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the same period last month, and the first 15 days decreased by 10% - 15.5%. SPPOMA data showed different trends in production. China's palm oil imports in October were 220,000 tons, down 11.7% year - on - year, and 1.96 million tons from January to October, down 15.3% year - on - year. Domestic spot basis was stable [7] - **Strategy**: Over - production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market, but recent export improvements provide support. Observe the sustainability. Palm oil may reverse the inventory build - up in Q4 and Q1 next year. The strategy is to view it as oscillatory, turning bullish if production drops [8][10] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fall. The closing price of the January contract was 5,381 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing factories also decreased. The basis between Guangxi spot and Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 219 yuan/ton [11] - **Supply and Demand**: The International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 season, compared to a 2.92 - million - ton deficit in 2024/25. China's sugar imports in October were 750,000 tons, up 213,200 tons year - on - year, and 3.9054 million tons from January to October, up 13.8%. India's sugar production increased significantly this year [12] - **Strategy**: Stricter import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. With expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures slightly rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was 1,294 yuan/ton [15] - **Supply and Demand**: China's cotton imports in October were 90,000 tons, down 20,000 tons year - on - year, and 780,000 tons from January to October, down 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA report increased the global cotton production forecast in the 2025/26 season. As of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.28 million tons, up 370,000 tons year - on - year [16] - **Strategy**: With weak downstream demand and high domestic production, and after previous price drops digesting some negative factors, short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate [17] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 2.82 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, downstream demand was average, with a small inventory pressure. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with a few declines [20] - **Strategy**: The short - term focus is on demand support. Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures will likely oscillate. In the medium - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [21] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally rose slightly, with some areas stable. The average price in Henan rose 0.14 yuan to 11.76 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan rose 0.05 yuan to 11.32 yuan/kg. Farmers' reluctance to sell decreased, and supply may increase, but demand boost was limited. Today's pig prices are expected to stabilize [23] - **Strategy**: The long - term trend is bearish due to supply surplus, but short - term counter - rallies are possible. The recommended strategies are reverse spreads first, followed by short - selling on rallies [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [1]. - Soybean oil has no breakthrough driving force and mainly fluctuates within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,852 yuan/ton (up 1.65% during the day, down 0.66% at night), soybean oil主力 at 8,356 yuan/ton (up 0.43% during the day, up 0.05% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,813 yuan/ton (down 0.62% during the day, down 0.37% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,226 ringgit/ton (up 0.38% during the day, down 0.99% at night), and CBOT soybean oil主力 at 51.45 cents/pound (down 2.00%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 822,062 lots (an increase of 349,773 lots) and an open interest of 380,300 lots (a decrease of 40,243 lots). Soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 375,221 lots (an increase of 118,519 lots) and an open interest of 462,799 lots (an increase of 134 lots). Rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 311,645 lots (an increase of 96,313 lots) and an open interest of 243,297 lots (a decrease of 7,957 lots) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong was priced at 8,740 yuan/ton (an increase of 120 yuan/ton), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong at 8,720 yuan/ton (an increase of 50 yuan/ton), and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi at 10,240 yuan/ton (a decrease of 100 yuan/ton). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,055 dollars/ton (an increase of 10 dollars/ton) [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 112 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 364 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 427 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,279 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 496 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Sarawak Oil Palms Berhad aims to maximize the output of its existing plantations. Sarawak has 1.62 million hectares of oil palm plantations, accounting for 29% of Malaysia's total, but its output only accounts for 21.6% of Malaysia's palm oil output. The company's CEO expects a 5% year - on - year increase in output this year, with last year's total output at 1.25 million tons [2][3]. - **US Crop Planting**: S&P Global Energy predicts that the US corn planting area in 2026 will be reduced by 3.8% (3.7 million acres) compared to 2025, while the soybean planting area will increase by 4% (3.4 million acres) [3]. - **US Soybean Exports**: On November 19, private exporters reported the sale of 330,000 tons of soybeans to China for shipment in the 2025/2026 market year [3]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: Due to irregular rainfall, Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output at 178.76 million tons, a reduction of over 2 million tons from the September forecast. However, it will still reach a record high, a 4% increase from the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.4% to 48.31 million hectares. Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in November to reach 4.71 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.68 million tons [4]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of the week of November 12, Argentine farmers sold 533,500 tons of 2024/2025 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 39.3662 million tons, and 41,900 tons of 2025/2026 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 4.2166 million tons [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn rebounded after the November report lowered the yield, but the production remained high, and it was in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn declined, and the price of Brazilian imports in December was 2138 yuan. The domestic corn spot was relatively strong in the short - term, with stable demand from the breeding industry and low inventory of downstream feed enterprises. The 01 corn futures had room to fall later. The starch spot was strong due to the corn rebound, but the 01 starch futures on the disk also had room to fall in the short - term [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2175 with a 0.32% increase, C2605 at 2245 with a 0.18% increase, and C2509 at 2272 with a 0.22% increase. For starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2480 with a 0.52% increase, CS2605 at 2560 with a 0.23% increase, and CS2509 at 2612 with a 0.23% increase. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, etc., and the spot prices of starch in different enterprises such as Longfeng, COFCO, etc., were reported. The basis of corn and starch in different regions and enterprises was also provided [2]. - **Spreads**: Corn inter - delivery spreads (e.g., C01 - C05 was - 70 with a 3 increase), starch inter - delivery spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05 was - 80 with a 7 increase), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09 was 340 with a 1 increase) were presented [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn was in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn declined. The northern port's flat - hatch price in the north dropped, while the northeast and north China corn spots were stable. The price difference between northeast and north China corn was large. Corn had cost - effectiveness compared to wheat. The domestic breeding demand was stable, and the downstream feed enterprises' inventory was low. The 01 corn futures were strongly oscillating, and the spot basis strengthened. The market was concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn and downstream inventory building [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased, and the Shandong corn spot was stable. The starch inventory decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 110.9 million tons, a 2.4 - million - ton decrease from last week, a 1.7% monthly decrease, and a 25.6% year - on - year increase. The starch price depended on corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price was strong, and the enterprise's profit was good. The 01 starch futures followed the corn to oscillate strongly, but the north China corn price might fall in December, and the starch spot would also decline later [7]. 3.3 Corn Options - The option strategy was a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. Information about two option contracts (C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE) including the underlying price, closing price, and price change was provided [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments - Six figures were provided, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract [13][15][19].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 生猪 周二，生猪近月合约持续调整，远期跟随下跌跌幅有限。现货市场，销区猪价企 稳，部分地区报价上涨。今日江西生猪市场均价为 11.28 元/公斤，价格偏弱 0.01 元/公斤。今日头部集团厂稳定，大猪成交较好，走量较好，成交较昨日稍有改 善。广东市场生猪出栏均价为 12.16 元/公斤 ，较昨日价格稳定，与全国均价价 差相差 0.90 元/公斤， 规模场主流牌价为 11.9-12.4 元/公斤。7kg 仔猪规模厂牌 价 260 元/头左右。110-130 公斤标猪与 150 公斤以上肥猪价差为-0.84 元/公斤。 技术上，周五自本周二，生猪 7、9 月合约延续调整，短线警惕猪价调整，短多 离场，等待低位企稳的机会。 震荡 农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米近、远月合约联动调整，最近两个交易日，玉米远期 2611 合约领跌， 近月 2601 合约跟跌。今日北港价格持续上涨，东北产区粮源发北港已开始顺价。 东北产区价格 ...

生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月19日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 165 | 前值 -45 | 涨跌 210 | 张跃幅 466.67% | 单位 | | 主力合约基着 生猪2605 | 12040 | 12140 | -100 | -0.82% | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 11535 | 11695 | -160 | -1.37% | | | 生猪1-5价差 | -505 | -445 | -60 | -13.48% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 142417 | 137254 | 5163 | 3.76% | 글 | | 仓单 | 90 | 90 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11700 | 11650 | 50.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11750 | ...

1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预计略低于正常水平。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | 豆粕 | | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 西种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作，美农 11 月报告显示美豆期末库存虽然环比 | | | | 回落，但与 8 月期末库存预估一致。本周国内大豆及豆粕库存环比回落，短线关注 | | | | 调整后逢低短多机会，关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | | | 近日加方表示暂无法取消对中国关税，导致市场对于中加贸易关税改善预期降温。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨。港口库存依然同比偏高叠加豆粕调整，昨日菜粕延 | | ★ | 短线回落整理 | 续回落调整。短线关注调整后看多机会。做空谨慎对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 15 日出口数据环比较弱，累库 | | | 偏弱整理 | 预期依然存在，短期阶段性调整行情。近日进口盘面利润快速回升修复， ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-19 现货涨跌互现，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3041元/吨，较前日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.07%；菜粕2601合约2431元/吨，较前日 变动-18元/吨，幅度-0.73%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01+9， 较前日变动+2；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-41，较前日变动+2；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2990元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-51，较前日变动+2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差RM01+179，较前日变动-2。 近期市场资讯，11月17日，巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西11月前两周出口大豆230.2万吨，日均 出口量为23万吨，较上年11月全月的日均出口量13.4万吨增加71%。 上年11月全月出口量为255.3万吨。11月17日， 美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年11月13日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为117.6万吨，此前市 场预估 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including sugar, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, pulp, offset paper, and logs, providing short - and medium - term outlooks and trading strategies for each [1][6][7][9][11][14][16][17][18][21]. - Overall, different products face various market situations, with some showing short - term support but medium - to - long - term downward pressure, while others are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and cost, resulting in complex market trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price is testing the support at 5400 yuan/ton again [1][17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to see increased sugar production in Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, leading to a surplus in the international sugar market and downward pressure on prices. In the short - term, Brazil's export volume is decreasing, and the domestic market is supported by tightened import policies and expected reduced imports [1][17]. - **Outlook**: Medium - to - long - term is weak with a downward trend; short - term price range is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton, and the operation idea is to short on rallies [2][17]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: The cost of domestic soybean oil has increased, and it is oscillating strongly; palm oil is oscillating, and rapeseed oil is oscillating [6]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the market is waiting for US economic data, and there are differences in the Fed's monetary policy. From an industrial perspective, the expectation of US soybean exports is fluctuating, and the planting progress in South America is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high, and the de - stocking speed of soybean oil is slow. The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased, and the consumption of palm oil in Indonesia's biodiesel has increased. The supply of rapeseed in China is currently tight but is expected to increase later [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is oscillating strongly, palm oil and rapeseed oil are oscillating. The market is affected by multiple long and short factors [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **View**: China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and the internal and external market fluctuations have intensified [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the USDA has lowered US soybean exports, but China's procurement may return. US soybean crushing volume has reached a new high, and South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. Domestically, the import profit of soybeans has improved, but the January shipment is still at a loss. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased [6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean and rapeseed meals are oscillating. It is recommended to buy at low prices around 3000 - 3050 but not to chase the rise [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **View**: The spot price continues to rise, and the futures price has a slight correction [7]. - **Logic**: The supply of corn has decreased due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the demand has increased due to the tight inventory of feed - using enterprises in the sales area. The state - owned grain reserve rotation is ongoing, and the import auction has a high transaction rate. However, the new grain listing pressure has not been fully released [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.5 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs for slaughter is abundant, and the pig price is weak [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms has increased slightly, and the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow. In the medium - term, the number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase. In the long - term, the production capacity of sows is showing signs of reduction [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. In the near - term, the slaughter pressure at the end of the year is large; in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - **View**: It continues to oscillate in a narrow range [11]. - **Logic**: Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, providing some support. However, demand has not changed significantly recently. If there is no strong expectation difference or macro - drive, the rubber price may face downward pressure [13]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend. Pay attention to widening the RU - NR spread [13]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains an oscillating trend [14]. - **Logic**: The futures price has rebounded recently but has not reversed. The main reason for the support is the relatively stable transaction of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the market sentiment is still cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are high. It is recommended to short on rallies before butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions [15]. 3.8 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price is adjusting downward [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA's November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the domestic new cotton production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weakening, and the supply is increasing in the fourth quarter. The price is in a correction stage [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract has a correction risk; in the long - term, the valuation is low and it is oscillating strongly [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The 01 contract funds continue to flow out, and the correction pressure persists [17]. - **Logic**: The main reason for the recent correction of the 01 contract is the continuous exit of long - side funds. There is an obvious position - shifting phenomenon, which accelerates the capital exit. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. The market is mainly driven by funds [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures are mainly in a wide - range oscillation [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Offset paper is following the decline of pulp [18]. - **Logic**: In November, the overall fundamentals are at the bottom - building stage. The price is affected by factors such as the paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream demand, and cost. In December, the market may be dragged down by the dealers' price - cutting for sales. In the first quarter of 2026, the market may enter a stage of narrow - range oscillation [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly following the pulp as the paper mills' price - increasing sentiment is high [18]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: It is oscillating in a narrow range and is at the bottom - building stage [21]. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high in the long - term, and the demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026. The inventory is slowly decreasing in the short - term and is expected to increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no clear contradictions, and the spot price is under pressure. It is oscillating at a low level recently [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2234.87, down 0.86%; the commodity 20 index was 2534.70, down 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2208.90, down 0.88% [179]. - The agricultural product index on November 18, 2025, was 928.27, with a daily decline of 0.46%, a 5 - day decline of 0.79%, a 1 - month increase of 0.04%, and a decline of 2.77% since the beginning of the year [181].