农产品日报 | 2025-05-20 苹果受替代果品挤压，走货有所放缓 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7755元/吨，较前一日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.06%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+445，较前一日变动+5；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1845，较前一日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，苹果库内货源主流交易平稳，整体走货速度较前一般，多以前期包装货源发运为主。西部产区客 商货源交易稳定，现货商拿货尚可，存货商有序发市场为主；山东产区低价货源找货相对较多，价格略硬；好货 行情维持稳定，客商按需采购。销区市场市场走货尚可，下游批发商维持按需拿货，中转库基本无积压。陕西洛 川产区目前库内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3 元/斤，果农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 ...

2025年05月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：豆系驱动偏弱，区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：跟随市场情绪波动 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：短期调整为主 | 10 | | 生猪：情绪转弱，阶段性去库 | 11 | | 花生：偏强震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 20 日 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 豆油：豆系驱动偏弱，区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,984 | 涨跌幅 -0.80% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,054 | 涨跌幅 0.88% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,754 | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 15 日） | | 周三，鸡蛋期货震荡调整，2506 合约收涨 0.1%，报收 2921 元/500 千克；2509 合约收涨 0.18%。现货价格较前一日稳定，卓创数据显示，昨日全国鸡蛋价格 3.26 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/斤，环比持平，产区中，宁津粉壳蛋 3.2 元/斤，黑山市场褐壳蛋 2.9 元/斤， | | | | 环比持平；销区中，浦西褐壳蛋 3.31 元/斤，广州市场褐壳蛋 3.5 元/斤，环比持 平。销区市场到货量较昨日增多，终端市场需求一般，下游环节采购积极性尚可。 | | | 鸡蛋 | | 震荡 | | | 短期产区蛋价大局稳定，个别下跌；销区采购成本大局稳定，个别下跌。端午节 | | | | 日需求将对短期蛋价形成一定支撑，但后期梅雨季对需求的不利影响，叠加供给 | | | | 逐渐增加的压力，蛋价弱势概率大。后期关注饲料原料价格及养殖端淘汰意愿的 | | | | 变化对蛋价的影响。 | | | | 周三，生猪以小阳线收盘，近期生猪 9 月合约维持震荡表现，猪价偏强运行。目 前， 全国外三元生猪出栏均价为 14.71 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of the futures price falling and adjusting again due to potential negative factors such as increasing production and expected significant inventory growth at the end of May. The domestic palm oil futures may fluctuate after breaking through 8,200 yuan and could potentially rise to 8,300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: If the proposed extension of the 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy in the US is passed, the use of soybean oil in biofuel production will increase significantly. Domestically, the inventory of soybean oil will gradually increase after the Dragon Boat Festival, which may drag down the market [1]. Meals - The US soybean trend is strong due to eased Sino - US trade tensions and downward - adjusted estimates of US soybean production and ending stocks. However, the Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized, and the domestic soybean arrival is abundant without obvious positive support. The basis is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs is stable with little change in the supply - demand relationship. The price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. The 09 contract has returned above 14,000, with limited upward and downward movement [5][6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the corn market is stable with a strong bottom support. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. The corn starch market shows some fluctuations in relevant indicators [7]. Sugar - The short - term raw sugar is expected to fluctuate widely between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to remain volatile within the range of 5,800 - 5,950 yuan per ton [11]. Cotton - The downstream of the cotton industry is gradually weakening, and the supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 13,500 - 13,700 yuan per ton [12]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and the demand is average in most markets. The price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize this week [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On May 14, compared with May 13, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil generally increased, with different changes in basis, spreads, and inventory [1]. - **Policy Impact**: The proposed extension of the 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy in the US may increase the demand for soybean oil in biofuel production [1]. Meals - **Price Changes**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed various changes in spot, futures, basis, and spreads on May 14 compared with May 13. The import crushing margins also changed [2]. - **Market Situation**: The US soybean market is strong, while the Brazilian supply pressure is being realized, and the domestic soybean arrival is abundant [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the futures prices of some pig contracts increased, and the spot prices were stable. There were also changes in indicators such as slaughter volume, prices of piglets and sows, and breeding profits [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand relationship is stable, and the price is expected to remain volatile [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the corn futures price increased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and other indicators. The corn starch market also had corresponding changes in prices and indicators [7]. - **Market Situation**: The corn market has strong bottom support in the short term and is expected to rise in the long term due to supply - demand changes [7]. Sugar - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the futures and spot prices of sugar changed, and there were also changes in basis, spreads, and import - related prices. The production and sales of sugar showed year - on - year growth [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic sugar price will remain volatile due to supply - demand factors [11]. Cotton - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the cotton futures and spot prices changed, and there were also changes in basis, spreads, and inventory - related indicators. The downstream industry showed some changes in production, sales, and inventory [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term cotton price may fluctuate due to supply - demand and macro factors [12]. Eggs - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the prices of egg contracts, egg - related products, and indicators such as egg - to - feed ratio and breeding profit changed [14]. - **Market Outlook**: The egg price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize due to supply - demand conditions [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The ratings for different agricultural products are as follows: Corn - "Oscillation" [1]; Soybean Meal - "Oscillation" [1]; Vegetable Oils - "Weak" [1]; Eggs - "Oscillation" [1]; Pigs - "Oscillation" [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products on May 14, 2025, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment suggestions [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: Futures prices are under pressure and adjusting, with long - term moving averages providing support. Spot prices are strong, with the domestic average price at 2365 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. Northeast prices are stable, North China is generally stable, and the selling area prices are rising. The overall view is "oscillation" [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Spot market sentiment is divided, and prices are adjusting. The US soybean shows a de - stocking structure, but the export boost of US soybeans is expected to be limited. Domestic soybean meal prices follow the decline of rapeseed meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. The operation suggestion is to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread and have a long - side single - side thinking. The view is "oscillation" [1] - **Vegetable Oils**: BMD palm oil rises but is restricted by inventory growth. Malaysian palm oil exports, production, and inventory in April all increased. Domestic vegetable oil supply is gradually recovering, and the basis is expected to continue to decline. The strategy is to buy soybean oil and sell palm oil. The view is "weak" [1] - **Eggs**: Futures prices rebound in the morning and then fall, while spot prices rebound. However, considering the potential negative impact of the rainy season on demand and the increasing supply pressure, the probability of weak egg prices is high. The view is "oscillation" [1][2] - **Pigs**: The September contract shows an oscillating performance, and pig prices are running strongly. The national average ex - factory price of ternary pigs is 14.71 yuan/kg, basically flat from the previous day. The daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 2.50%. Pig prices continue to consolidate at a low level. The view is "oscillation" [2] 3.2 Market Information - Trump's senior envoys will go to Istanbul on Thursday for potential talks on ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national on - site promotion meeting for increasing the per - unit yield of grain and oil, emphasizing technology - supported yield improvement, spring sowing, and drought and flood prevention [3] - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff rate on US - imported goods from 34% to 10% and suspended the 24% additional tariff rate for 90 days [3] - As of May 11, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were 247 million tons, down from 303 million tons in the same period last year, while soybean imports were 1218 million tons, up from 1128 million tons last year [3] - On May 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 427,885 tons of imported soybeans, with an actual transaction volume of 151,064 tons and a transaction rate of 35.3% [4] - Malaysian palm oil exports, production, and inventory in April all increased compared to the previous month [4] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts for agricultural products such as corn, soybean, vegetable oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads and basis is provided in the given text [5][13]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 2025年5月14日 | | | 王浅辉 | Z0019938 | | | 员拥 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张庆 | 涨跌幅 | | 8320 | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8270 | 50 | 0.60% | | Y2509 | 期价 | 7952 | 7970 | -18 | -0.23% | | Y2509 | 墓差 | 368 | 300 | ୧୫ | 22.67% | | 09+400 | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 | | 09+390 | 10 | - | | 6370 | 仓車 | | 6370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 8670 | 现价 广东24度 | | 8600 | 70 | 0.81% | | P2509 | 期价 | 8324 | 8450 | -126 | - ...

农产品日报 | 2025-05-14 苹果关注坐果，红枣整体成交良好 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7744元/吨，较前一日变动-93元/吨，幅度-1.19%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+456，较前一日变动+93；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.05元/斤，现货基差AP10+1856，较前一日变动+193。 近期市场资讯，苹果产区行情继续维持稳硬运行，近期走货尚可，整体交易氛围较节前略清淡，现货商维持按需 找货，目前主要发运前期包装好货源为主。西部产区客商货源找货稳定，价格表现稳硬，部分客商包装自存货源 发市场；山东产区成交多以高性价比货源为主，中低价区货源走货顺畅，好货成交增加。陕西洛川产区目前库内 客商货源4.2-4.5元/斤，70#高次2.8-3.2元/斤左右，以质论价。山东栖霞产区果农三级1.8-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统 货2.5-3.5元/斤，80#一二级3.5-4.0元/斤，75#一二级2.9-3.2元/斤。广东批发市场到货量较昨日略有减 ...

苹果客商拿货正常，红枣端午备货持续 苹果观点 农产品日报 | 2025-05-13 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7837元/吨，较前一日变动+25元/吨，幅度+0.32%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+363，较前一日变动-25；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.45元/斤，现货基差AP10+1663，较前一日变动+875。 近期市场资讯，苹果节后市场客商按需找货，多以前期包装货源发运为主。西部产区客商货源交易稳定，现货商 拿货尚可，存货商有序发市场为主；山东产区客商找货较节前略有减少，高性价比货源走货仍表现顺畅，库内货 源价格偏稳定运行。销区市场市场走货尚可，下游批发商维持按需拿货，中转库基本无积压。陕西洛川产区目前 库内果农统货70#起步主流价格4-4.2元/斤左右，客商前期货源4.4-4.5元/斤，70#高次2.9-3.3元/斤左右，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.5-3.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4元/斤。 市场分 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米期价震荡下行，日线以小阴线收盘。现货主体卖粮意愿增加，市场情 绪有所改变。目前，国内玉米均价 2359 元/吨，价格上涨 7 元/吨。虽然今日期 | | | | 货市场表现一般，但东北玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，贸易商根据库存情况 | | | | 操作思路不一，深加工玉米收购价格处于高位，对行情有一定的支撑。周末企业 | | | 玉米 | 经过下跌后，今日华北地区玉米价格整体维持稳定，目前贸易商的心态依然是下 | 震荡 | | | 跌不出货，因此价格对市场供应的调整比较有效。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨， | | | | 港口贸易商报价上调 10-20 元/吨。产区贸易商挺价心态浓厚，中储粮玉米拍卖 | | | | 多溢价成交，但今日期货表现偏弱，市场整体交易一般。技术上，玉米期价高位 | | | | 震荡，现货市场情绪有所分化，警惕期价展开调整。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收高，创下三个月新高，因贸易紧张局势缓解以及美国农业部 报告利多帮助大豆价格回 ...

2025年05月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：关税预期缓和，宏观影响显现 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦缓和、美豆收涨，连粕或反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：市场乐观情绪推动棉花期货反弹 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：偏强震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：等待矛盾释放 | 11 | | 花生：现货偏强 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 13 日 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 豆油：关税预期缓和，宏观影响显现 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,886 | -0.28% | 8,022 | 1.72% | | | ...