Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence, leading to increased demand for precious metals as a low-risk alternative to the dollar [3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of January 12, 2026, the spot silver price is at $84.15 per ounce, with a trading range between $79.94 and $84.60 during the day [1][2]. - Other silver-related prices include silver T+D at 20,909 yuan per kilogram and paper silver at 18.897 yuan per gram [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Key events driving the current market include ongoing unrest in Iran and potential U.S. intervention, which heightens geopolitical risks [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing political pressure, raising concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy [3]. - KCM Trade's chief market analyst notes that in a low-interest-rate environment, the appeal of non-yielding precious metals like silver is increasing, with expectations of continued demand from central banks [3]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for Fed rate cuts to June and September 2026, indicating a significant delay from previous expectations [3]. - JPMorgan no longer anticipates a rate cut in January 2026, now predicting a rate hike in Q3 2027 [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Technical analysis indicates that silver prices remain in an upward channel, suggesting a bullish outlook [4]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 70.66, indicating overbought conditions and potential for short-term consolidation [4]. - Key resistance levels include the historical high of $85.87 and the upper boundary of the upward channel around $88.40 [4]. - Initial support is at the 9-day EMA of $77.94, followed by the lower boundary of the upward channel at approximately $76.40 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified due to threats of criminal prosecution from the U.S. Department of Justice, alongside rising demand for safe-haven assets driven by protests in Iran, leading to record highs in gold and silver prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the potential prosecution should be viewed in the context of ongoing government pressure to influence interest rate decisions [1][4]. - Following Powell's comments, gold prices surged to nearly $4,600 per ounce, while silver approached $85 per ounce [1][4]. - The U.S. dollar weakened, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose slightly [1][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Precious Metals - Protests in Iran have led to speculation about a potential regime change, increasing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven investments [1][5]. - Multiple favorable factors, including declining U.S. interest rates, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a decrease in trust in the dollar, have supported gold and silver prices [1][5]. - Fund managers expressed confidence in the long-term attractiveness of precious metals, opting not to significantly reduce their gold positions [1][5]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices surged nearly 6%, reaching a historical high of $84.6090 per ounce, with a 150% increase over the past year [2][6]. - The silver market is expected to face supply shortages through 2026, driven by strong investment demand and rising industrial needs [2][6]. - Concerns over U.S. tariffs affecting silver, platinum, and palladium are anticipated, with a report expected in January [2][6]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Interest Rate Expectations - Recent U.S. employment data did not alter market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports non-yielding precious metals [3][6]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates three times in the latter half of the previous year, with the market pricing in at least two more cuts this year [3][6]. - Analysts noted that weak labor market data reinforces expectations for an earlier and more aggressive shift to rate cuts, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7].

国际油价于周一走低。此前伊朗方面称，经过周末的暴力事件后该国局势已"完全可控"，这缓解了市场 对这个欧佩克产油国原油供应的部分担忧，与此同时，投资者也在评估委内瑞拉恢复石油出口的相关进 展。 截至格林尼治标准时间当日07：50，布伦特原油期货价格下跌9美分，报每桶63.25美元；美国西德克萨 斯中质原油期货价格下跌10美分，报每桶59.02美元。 尽管上周末抗议活动出现升级，但伊朗宗教领导层针对这场2022年以来规模最大的示威活动加大了弹压 力度，受此影响，两大原油基准价格上周均上涨超3%，创下自去年10月以来的最大单周涨幅。 伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐周一通过英文译员表示，经历周末的暴力冲突升级后，伊朗国内局势"已完全 在掌控之中"。 他还称，美国总统唐纳德・特朗普曾警告，若抗议活动演变为流血冲突，美方将对德黑兰采取行动，而 正是这一言论煽动"恐怖分子"将抗议者和安全部队列为袭击目标，企图以此招致外国势力介入。 日前，伊朗国内的动荡局势已造成超500人死亡。 他补充道："市场的态度是，在供应切实出现中断之前，不会作出显著反应。" 与此同时，随着委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯・马杜罗被抓获，该国预计将很快恢复石油出口。特 ...

2026.01.12-01.16 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在强势上涨阶段，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金在多重利好共振下震荡上行。地缘政治风险（如委内瑞拉事件） 与强化中的美联储降息预期是核心驱动力，全球央行持续购金则提供了 长期支撑。这使得金价展现出强韧性，在美元走强背景下独立上涨，沪 金站稳千元关口。后续需警惕美国通胀数据可能延缓降息节奏，以及地 缘局势缓和带来的避险溢价消退风险。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，上方压力位980－1000元/克，下方 支撑位950－970元/克，建议逢低买入，短期波动较大注意控制 仓位。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，上方压力位1011－1016元/克，下方 支撑位1000－1005元/克，建议逢低买入，短期高位波动较大注意 控制仓位。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选 ...

美元指数弱势运行为美元计价的油价和金银提供支撑。美国司法部调查美联储主席鲍威尔，加剧市场对 美联储独立性的担忧，亚洲时段美元指数短线急跌 0.3% 失守 99 关口。历史数据显示，美元与大宗商 品呈显著负相关，美元走弱降低持有成本，吸引全球资金增持。此外，市场对美联储 2026 年至少两次 降息的预期未改，宽松预期进一步削弱美元吸引力，间接助推大宗商品上行。 供需格局结构性调整从基本面强化上涨趋势。石油市场方面，欧佩克 + 决定 2026 年 2-3 月继续暂停增 产，缓解市场对供应过剩的担忧，其稳定市场的政策信号对油价形成短期支撑。贵金属市场则受益于全 球央行持续购金，世界黄金协会数据显示，2025 年 11 月全球央行净购金 45 吨，波兰、巴西等国持续 增持，全年累计近 300 吨。官方长期配置需求叠加 "去美元化" 进程中黄金储备占比提升趋势，构成金 银上涨的坚实基础。 值得注意的是，不同品种上涨逻辑存在细微差异。油价上涨更多受短期地缘风险驱动，长期仍受全球需 求乏力制约，路透社调查显示，经济学家对 2026 年布伦特原油均价预测低于此前水平。金银则更多受 益于货币信用担忧，美联储与白宫政策博弈、美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, with supply - side capital expenditure constraints supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom. Short - term prices are likely to stay strong due to the structural imbalance of global inventories and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. Focus on changes in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99000 - 100000 support level [1]. - Zinc: The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, but the import window for zinc ore is opening, limiting the downside space of TC. The supply pressure of refined zinc is relieved, and demand is suppressed. Overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and pressure from the expected supply of imported ore and weak demand feedback. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 23300 - 23400 support level [4]. - Nickel: The nickel market has seen significant price fluctuations. The unclear result of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market sentiment. High nickel prices have restricted downstream transactions, and the supply and demand situation is complex. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a wide range, with the main contract running in the 132000 - 142000 range [6]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is mainly driven by nickel raw materials. The unclear nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market expectations. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand in the off - season is weak. The cost support from the ore end and nickel - iron is strengthened. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the 13400 - 14200 range [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant increase in the price center last week. The supply - side shock expectation is strengthened, and demand is expected to be optimistic. The inventory situation has changed, with upstream inventory increasing and downstream inventory decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, with a focus on the 150000 breakthrough and liquidity risks [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease by 1 - 20,000 tons, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Exports may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton range [11]. - Polysilicon: In January, the polysilicon market is in a weak - demand situation, with high inventory and price pressure. There is a need for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. Pay attention to the impact of antitrust news, the possibility of production cuts, and the redistribution of industrial chain profits. The 50000 yuan/ton level may provide support, and trading is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Tin: The short - term price of tin is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The supply side may be affected by the situation in Congo (Kinshasa), and demand shows regional differences. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and operations should be cautious [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market has been oscillating widely. The supply is rigid, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton range. A rebound depends on capacity - control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has risen strongly, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices, and inventory starting to accumulate. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at a high level, with the main contract in the 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton range [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum - alloy market has shown a strong trend, mainly driven by cost factors. However, the supply and demand are both weak, with supply affected by raw - material shortages and demand being suppressed by high prices. Inventory has been gradually decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract in the 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 100275 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.77%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased to 41.94 dollars/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24170 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%. The import profit and loss was - 1887 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased to 141900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.80%. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 196 dollars/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained at 13800 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 increased to - 85 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 140000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.08%. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 was - 580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 9650 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased to 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 55000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.90%. The main contract price dropped to 51300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased to 349750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.49%. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to 370 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 24030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.12%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum was 176.8 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 23700 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to - 105 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a 6.80% increase month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 27.11 million tons, a 3.90% decrease [1]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a 7.24% decrease month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 1.82 million tons, a 3.22% decrease [4]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month. The import volume in November increased by 30.08% [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, a 4.04% increase month - on - month. The demand decreased by 2.50% [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the expected production of industrial silicon may decrease to 38 - 39 million tons. The demand is expected to decline by about 1 million tons [11]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, a 0.79% increase month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 2041.76% [12]. - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81% month - on - month. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly [13]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a 1.08% increase month - on - month. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [15]. Inventory Data - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 14.61% week - on - week to 27.38 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 1.49% day - on - day to 13.90 million tons [1]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 11.69% week - on - week to 11.85 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.51% day - on - day to 10.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% week - on - week to 46650 tons. LME inventory increased by

美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格11日创历史新高，一度突破每盎司4612美元。 2026年第一个完整交易周，在2025年表现强势的贵金属，继续牛市行情，黄金和白银期货价格均累计上涨，但波动性明显加剧。 综合多家金融机构的分析来看，本周有两个因素加剧了贵金属价格的下行压力： 不过，多家机构预计，即便面临短期下行压力，贵金属和工业金属价格今年仍有上涨空间。 一是彭博大宗商品指数本周启动年度再平衡调整，贵金属权重被大幅下调。分析人士称，预计这次再平衡调整会触发指数追踪型资金被 动减仓，使得黄金和白银面对获利了结压力。 另一方面，芝商所集团从周五盘后起，再次上调黄金、白银、铂金和钯金等贵金属期货履约保证金，这是最近一个月以来，芝商所集团 第三次上调贵金属期货保证金。其中，白银保证金本次上调幅度达28.6%。交易所大幅上调保证金，通常能遏制高杠杆交易和投机交 易。 总台央视记者高岩：美国突袭委内瑞拉引发地缘政治动荡和市场避险情绪升温，加之发达经济体债务膨胀，投资者增加贵金属配置，纽约商 品交易所黄金和白银期货主力合约价格在本周分别累计上涨3.96%和11.72%。 值得注意的是，贵金属价格波动在本周明显加剧。尤其是白银期 ...

摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚市时段，黄金价格一度冲高至约4600美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。在全球不确定 性加剧的背景下，避险资金持续涌入黄金市场，同时市场对美联储年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要 支撑。地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军 事选项，此前伊朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为 传统避险资产的吸引力。 今日周五(1月9日)亚市时段，黄金价格一度冲高至约4600美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。在全球不确定性加 剧的背景下，避险资金持续涌入黄金市场，同时市场对美联储年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要支 撑。地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事 选项，此前伊朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传 统避险资产的吸引力。 【基本面解析】 分析认为，鲍威尔或因政治压力选择留任理事至2028年，以限制特朗普对理事会的控制。特朗普与鲍威 尔的矛盾由来已久，第二任期批评更甚，甚至试图以欺诈指控驱逐其他理事，相关案件将由最高法院审 理。 【最新现货黄金 ...

周一(1月12日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格开盘高涨，目前交投于4569.29美元/盎司附近，现货黄金在近期 盘内交易中强势上涨，突破历史阻力位4550美元，创下历史新高，显示交易中多头势头占据主导地位， 黄金的长期前景依然向好，但由于价格处于高位，短期风险有所上升。 与此同时，美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔表示，针对他的刑事起诉威胁是因为中央银行根据 对公众利益的最佳评估设定利率，而不是遵循总统的偏好。 从技术面来看，周线级别，金价上周再度走强收复前景跌幅，减弱了其阴包阳的见顶看空形态，同时走 势也持稳运行在5-10周均线上方，布林带也有向上延伸的倾向，这暗示看涨前景加大，金价仍有再度向 上攀升刷新历史高点的潜力。就算再度遇阻回落，也是横盘调整为主，同时也再度入场的良机。 金价稳定运行在短期均线及中轨之上，布林带向上延伸，指标维持多头信号发展，看涨前景加大，今日 开盘多头再度发力，使此预期动力加大，将继续维持目前的震荡上升趋势保持不断测试新高的预期不 便。 相对强弱指数(RSI)目前为71.82(超买)，这可能会抑制即时涨幅，并邀请在上边界附近整合。回调将在 4365美元区域的通道底部找到支撑，200SM ...

上周（1月5日至1月9日当周）国际现货黄金开盘4354.87美元／盎司，最低4343.42美元／盎司，最高 4517.05美元／盎司，报收4510.26美元／盎司，当周上涨177.58美元或4.10%，当周收大阳。 尽管商品指数再平衡对金银形成技术性压力，但在地缘政治风险加剧以及美联储货币政策预期转变的共 同推动下，贵金属表现出了非凡的实力，上周现货黄金收涨超4%，累涨超177美元；现货白银收涨近 10%，累涨超7美元。 展望新的一周，地缘政治风险加剧与商品指数再平衡、CPI等数据以及美联储官员密集发声对降息预期 的影响等，尽管仍存在回撤风险，但金银震荡上行的趋势仍将延续，向上突破只是时间问题。 地缘政治风险加剧VS商品指数再平衡 地缘正式风险加剧与商品指数再平衡构成了上周贵金属市场的两条主线。 一方面，地缘紧张局势仍在持续。在刚刚过去的周末， 近期，伊朗多地出现针对物价上涨和货币贬值的抗议活动，其间发生骚乱，造成安全人员和民众伤亡。 美国总统特朗普10日在社交媒体上发文，再次威胁干涉伊朗当前局势，称美国随时准备提供"帮助"。伊 朗军方当天表示，将捍卫国家利益，保护战略基础设施和公共财产，并敦促伊朗人民团结起 ...