GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年11月2日 | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：短期关注地缘风险， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 不宜单边追多 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：短期关注地缘风险 ...

黄金市场在4000美元附近保持稳定，尽管美联储的鹰派言论和美元走强限制了黄金的上涨空间，但中长 期的支撑因素依然存在。投资者应关注未来几周美联储政策变化和贸易谈判进展，这些因素将深刻影响 黄金价格。短期内黄金可能维持震荡整理，投资者应保持谨慎，等待更多明确的市场信号。 美联储官员的鹰派言论加大了市场的不确定性。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克明确反对降息，而亚特兰大联 储主席博斯蒂克则支持继续降息，认为经济仍处于紧缩状态。政策意见分歧增加了市场对美联储未来政 策路径的猜测，也导致黄金价格波动。同时，美联储的鹰派立场使得美元和美国国债收益率得到支撑， 从而进一步限制了黄金的上涨空间。然而，央行购金和地缘政治风险仍为黄金提供了长期支撑，市场的 中期前景依然看好。 黄金价格在4000美元附近稳定，尽管经历了几次回调，依旧保持在关键支撑位。美元指数持续上升，接 近99.70，强势美元和高企的美国国债收益率对黄金价格构成压力。中美贸易局势稍有缓和，避险需求 减弱，进一步消减了黄金的吸引力。随着美联储在近期的会议中淡化降息预期，市场对降息的期待逐步 减弱，也使得黄金的上涨动力受到限制。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，未来几个月的货币政策将更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has decided to target military facilities in Venezuela, potentially linked to drug trafficking, which has led to a short-term increase in international oil prices [1]. Group 1: Military Actions and Reactions - The U.S. plans to strike military facilities associated with drug smuggling in Venezuela, with actions possibly imminent [1]. - Following the announcement, international oil prices saw a short-term rise, with WTI and Brent crude oil both increasing by nearly 1% [1]. - The U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyer "Gravely" recently completed exercises near Trinidad and Tobago, which prompted strong protests from the Venezuelan government [2]. Group 2: Oil Market Impact - WTI crude oil rose to $61.15, up by $0.58 or 0.96%, while Brent crude oil increased to $64.91, up by $0.54 or 0.84% [2]. - The main fuel futures contract saw an intraday increase of 2.00%, reaching 2807.00 yuan per ton [1].

Market Overview - Gold prices reached historical highs in October, driven by increased risk aversion due to multiple factors including U.S. government shutdown and Fed rate cut expectations[5] - The U.S. government shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of at least $18 billion, with potential permanent losses of up to $14 billion if it continues[8] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has led to a decline in gold prices as risk demand decreases[11] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on October 29, marking the fifth cut since September 2024[15] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, increasing uncertainty around future monetary policy[17] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped to 67.8% following Powell's comments, reflecting market skepticism about aggressive easing[18] Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with investment demand leading the growth, particularly through ETFs which saw inflows of 222 tons, amounting to $26 billion[28] - Central banks continued to increase gold reserves, with China's central bank adding 5 tons in Q3, maintaining a total of 2,304 tons[28] - The World Gold Council reported that Q3 2025 saw a 44% year-on-year increase in total demand value, reaching $146 billion[28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The oil price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. The weak fundamentals will continue to put pressure on the oil price, while the uncertainty of geopolitics will intensify market volatility. The "weak expectation" fundamentals will suppress the oil price performance, but the shale oil cost will provide psychological support, and the market's downward space may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil range of $55 - 65 per barrel [7][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the crude oil market showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, OPEC+ announced to maintain a small increase in production, and the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions suppressed the oil price from both supply and demand sides. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to a rebound in the oil price. In the future, the weak fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties will make the oil price continue wide - range fluctuations [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino - US Relations**: The Sino - US leaders' meeting and the positive results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have led to a warming at the macro - level. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. Both sides will adjust relevant measures and extend some tariff exclusion measures [10]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but there is uncertainty about a December rate cut. After Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" speech, the probability of a December rate cut is expected to be 71%, lower than the previous 90%. If economic data further decline, it will strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus and suppress the oil price [13]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: There were frequent geopolitical events in October, including US - Russia phone communication, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia. These sanctions have increased geopolitical risks, causing the oil price to rebound. However, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited [14]. - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Saudi Arabia is the main force of the increase. The market expects OPEC+ to continue a small increase in production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on the oil price [16]. - **IEA Forecast**: The IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [17]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - OPEC+ production increased in September. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran were the main contributors to the increase. OPEC+ is expected to fully implement the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase in the fourth quarter [19]. - US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.644 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24. The US oil drilling rig count increased slightly, but the rebound was limited, and it is expected to remain at a low level [22][24]. - **Demand Side** - In September, the US manufacturing PMI declined, and the Chicago PMI decreased slightly, which suppressed crude oil demand. The US refinery operating rate is expected to increase seasonally in the fourth quarter [26][32]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded but remained below the boom - bust line. The operating rates of Chinese refineries showed differentiation, and domestic crude oil consumption faces the pressure of a phased decline [40][44]. - **Inventory** - US EIA crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week ending October 24. Cushing crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories also decreased, but gasoline may face inventory accumulation pressure at the end of the fourth quarter [48][53].

金宝通(00320)公布，预期该集团截至2025年9月30日止6个月的股东应占溢利同比下降约80%-90%，去 年同期股东应占溢利约2880万港元。股东应占溢利下降的主要原因是由于(i)去年同期取得一笔约930万 港元的重大净外汇收益，该收益对当时的溢利带来正面影响，而本报告期内并无此项非经常性收益;及 (ii)为应对不断演变的地缘政治风险，并配合集团及其客户的策略方向，集团采取主动投资以加速业务 及技术发展，同时扩大其海外生产佈局。此等前瞻性举措涉及对其资源的审慎重整，以支持集团的可持 续及长远增长。此等效益尽管尚未完全实现，但将可为未来发展奠定稳固基础。 ...

Group 1 - The planned US-Russia summit in Budapest has been canceled, indicating a rapid decline in hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which adds new uncertainty to global markets [1] - US Secretary of State Rubio had a tense call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, following a memorandum from Russia reiterating its conditions for resolving the conflict [1] - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's stance and stated he does not want to "waste time" on a meeting with President Putin [1][2] Group 2 - The US Treasury announced sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which are expected to exert economic pressure on Russia [2] - President Putin responded to the sanctions by stating they are unfriendly but will not significantly impact the Russian economy, suggesting that buyers will need time to find alternatives to Russian oil [2] - Following the sanctions announcement, concerns over supply led to a rise in WTI and Brent crude oil prices, highlighting geopolitical risks as a key factor affecting energy prices [2]

中美峰会终于圆满结束，这次会晤在韩国举行，持续了近一小时40分钟，气氛既务实又友好，世界各国也都松了一口气。而且，这是第一次看到特朗普表现 得如此客气。 10月30日中午，当地时间，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山进行了会晤，这是自2019年以来中美首次面对面的会谈。双方进行了一个多小时的交流，讨论了多个 重要议题，氛围友好且充满务实精神。 会后，特朗普对这次会晤给予了高度评价，并表示希望与中国保持良好的关系。特朗普面带微笑，看起来对这次见面的结果非常满意。这次会谈的重要性不 仅在于中美将继续推进贸易谈判，更在于双方能够达成此次会面，这标志着中美关系的实质性进展。 特朗普上台不到一年，在此次出访中与中方在第三国进行会晤，成功打破了中美关系的僵局。上一次中美会谈还是在2023年11月，距今已有两年多的时间。 在如今复杂的全球格局下，高层之间的沟通显得尤为重要，有助于加深双方的理解，避免误判风险，特别是在当前中美因贸易等问题产生摩擦的背景下，减 少冲突升级的可能性。 尽管美国一直将中国视为竞争对手，但如果继续与中国对抗，最终只会增加美国与世界其他国家的风险，甚至可能导致全球局势的紧张，市场也可能因此陷 入恐慌。这是特朗普 ...

Core Insights - Mining stocks have been identified as "invisible winners" during the Trump era, significantly outperforming global stock indices and IT indices, with a notable increase of 20% and 30% respectively by the end of 2024 [2][4] - Recent declines in gold and rare earth stocks indicate a shift in market sentiment, as mining stocks have dropped 6% from their mid-October highs [2][4] - The easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and China has led to a reduction in investments in mining stocks, which were previously seen as a hedge against these risks [5][8] Group 1: Mining Stock Performance - The "Metals and Mining" sector saw a peak increase of 54% compared to the end of 2024, but has since reverted to September levels, losing momentum [4] - Mining stocks outperformed the aerospace and defense index, which rose by 55%, during a period of heightened geopolitical tensions [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The initial surge in mining stock investments was driven by concerns over geopolitical risks, particularly the US-China trade tensions, which prompted countries to compete for critical mineral resources [5] - The recent news of potential trade agreements between the US and China has contributed to a decline in mining stock prices, with MP Materials' stock dropping 30% from its mid-October peak [8] Group 3: Market Reactions - The stock prices of companies like Lynas Rare Earths and MP Materials surged due to their strategic importance in the US's efforts to establish a non-China reliant rare earth supply chain [7] - Gold prices have also been influenced by geopolitical factors, with a notable rise in demand from emerging market central banks, leading to a peak of over $4000 per ounce [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of mining stocks remains uncertain, as speculative investments have receded, yet they still maintain higher levels compared to early 2025 [8] - Analysts suggest that the trend of buying mining stocks as a hedge against inflation may continue, given their historical resilience in inflationary environments [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure from supply and geopolitical factors. Crude oil faces supply pressure and geopolitical risks, and most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The polyester terminal demand is improving, but the supply side of chemicals is a key negative factor. The market's response to the Sino - US summit is "buy on the rumor, sell on the news," and the OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production at the upcoming meeting. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Logic - The polyester chain's demand side is improving, with better terminal fabric shipments, inventory reduction, and improved nominal cash flow. However, the supply side of chemicals is a major negative factor. The meeting of the PTA and bottle - chip leading enterprises on the 30th had no substantial policies, which led to a decline in the day - trading session. [3] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: The Sino - US summit results are in line with expectations, but concerns about Russian oil remain. The macro and geopolitical drivers for oil prices are limited. Supply pressure suppresses prices, but geopolitical concerns still support prices to some extent. The price is expected to decline slowly and fluctuate weakly. [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price has no support. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ may increase production in November, Saudi Arabia reduces the export discount of crude oil to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict and the realization of the positive news from the Sino - US summit lead to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the asphalt inventory pressure is large. [7] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil, the fuel oil futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ supply increase and falling oil prices lead to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. The demand for fuel oil is still weak. [8] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows crude oil fluctuations, has low valuation, and faces supply increase and demand decline trends. [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory pressure still exists, the olefins have declined, and methanol fluctuates lower. - **Main Logic**: The futures price fluctuates lower. The high port inventory suppresses prices, but there is still low - buying value considering the potential Iranian disturbances in winter. [26] 3.2.6 Urea - **View**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is under continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the lack of export information updates from the nitrogen fertilizer association meeting. [26] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: The coal - based production rate is continuously rising, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorates month - on - month. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, the coal - based production rate is high, the supply - demand pattern weakens, and the port inventory accumulates. [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - **View**: The meeting has no substantial measures, and PX returns to the fundamental pricing logic. - **Main Logic**: The crude oil price fluctuates and falls. Some PX factories have maintenance, and the supply is temporarily stable. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the market gives back the previous emotional premium. [11] 3.2.9 PTA - **View**: The meeting has no substantial resolution, and PTA processing fees are still under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost fluctuates and falls, the meeting has no substantial production reduction, some devices may restart, and the downstream polyester demand provides some support. [12] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The meeting has no positive news, the market sentiment turns cold, and polyester staple fiber remains consolidated. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is poor, the meeting has no clear production reduction measures, the supply side has a device restart, and the downstream demand is for rigid replenishment. The inventory is at a healthy level, and the profit has some support. [22][23] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The PTA anti - involution meeting has no positive news. - **Main Logic**: The meeting fails to support the price, the supply - demand is stable, and the absolute price follows the upstream fluctuation, while the processing fee has some support. [24] 3.2.12 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by macro - events, pure benzene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The naphtha price is strong, but the opening of the Shandong - East China arbitrage window and the rumored maintenance of styrene devices suppress the price. [14][15] 3.2.13 Styrene - **View**: After the macro - disturbance, styrene rises and then falls. - **Main Logic**: Styrene follows the oil price to rebound, but the rebound is weak due to new production capacity and weak downstream follow - up. [16] 3.2.14 LLDPE - **View**: Maintenance slightly increases, and LLDPE is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The macro - situation, oil price, and its own fundamentals limit the upside space, and the short - term price fluctuates within a range. [28] 3.2.15 PP - **View**: Maintenance is stable, the propane CP price is reduced, and PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price drags down PP, and its own fundamentals have limited support. [29] 3.2.16 PL - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in PL prices. [30] 3.2.17 PVC - **View**: Market sentiment cools down, and PVC weakens. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the PVC fundamentals are under pressure due to increased production, limited downstream demand, and anti - dumping pressure on exports. [31] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the supply is high while the demand is inelastic, leading to inventory accumulation. [32]