【黄金期货行情表现】 1月7日，沪金主力暂报998.90元/克，跌幅0.17%，今日沪金主力开盘价1006.00元/克，截至目前最高 1011.00元/克，最低997.64元/克。 【宏观消息】 美国供应管理协会(ISM)发布的调查显示，12月制造业指数降至47.9，为 2024年10月以来最低，且连续 第10个月低于50，新订单进一步萎缩，投入成本持续攀升，显示该行业仍深受特朗普政府进口关税的拖 累。调查显示，短期内制造业复苏的可能性不大，但随着特朗普的减税政策生效，经济学家仍对今年的 反弹抱有希望。 明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利表示，通胀正在缓慢下降，但失业率仍有可能"跳升"。他表示："我认 为通胀风险在于其持续性，这些关税影响需要数年时间才能在系统中被消化，而我确实认为失业率可能 会从当前水平跳升。"他认为失业率约为4.6%，这表明劳动力市场正在降温。但他对显示通胀也在降温 的数据持怀疑态度，指出秋季创纪录的政府停摆导致数据收集出现问题。 【机构观点】 金银价格高位波动加剧，一方面，地缘政治紧张局势持续升温，有效提振了市场的避险情绪，资金流入 黄金等传统避险资产，为其价格提供了核心支撑。另一方面，白银在 ...

每经AI快讯，1月7日，德国12月季调后失业率为6.3%，预期6.3%。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices rose significantly due to heightened geopolitical tensions, reaching close to $4500 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline, currently trading at approximately $4450.56 per ounce, down nearly 1% [1] - New York gold futures reported a price of $4455.99 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.89% [3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that gold prices will reach $4800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and continued buying by central banks and funds [17] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver prices fell over 3% during trading, currently at $78.36 per ounce, with New York silver futures down 3.5% at $78.20 per ounce [4][8] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that 2025 will see a peak in the silver market supply gap, with additional upward price risks due to China's new export licensing system [17] - Bank of America has set a target price range for silver between $135 and $309 per ounce, noting that silver's price increase of over 140% in 2025 is nearly double that of gold [19] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve officials express differing views on the need for aggressive interest rate cuts, with some suggesting a potential reduction exceeding 100 basis points this year [10][11] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction, with predictions of job growth slowing and an unemployment rate holding at 4.6% [10][15] - Analysts suggest that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.7%, the Fed may proceed with a 25 basis point cut, with a significant likelihood of more than 60 basis points in total cuts if labor market conditions worsen [16]

摘要今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1001元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1002.89元/ 克，跌幅0.26%，最高触及1002.99元/克，最低下探1002.97元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向震荡走 势。 各界普遍预期12月失业率由4.6%小幅回落至4.5%。若回暖，美联储在1月底更可能按兵不动，且暂停期 或延长；当前官员口径与市场定价均偏谨慎。官方预测指向2026年或仅降息一次、2027年再降一次，而 期货定价隐含今年或至降息两次、年末区间3.00%–3.25%。 若非农显著弱于预期(如新增显著低于10万)，降息概率上升、长端收益率走低；若意外强劲(如>15 万)，"更高更久"叙事或强化、压制估值；若大致符合预期(约5–10万)，市场或延续震荡，等待更多数据 确认趋势。 今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1001元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1002.89元/克，跌 幅0.26%，最高触及1002.99元/克，最低下探1002.97元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 【要闻速递】 工行纸黄金(2026年1月7日)技术分析：报价978.50元/克，日 ...

Core Insights - The unemployment rate in the Philippines decreased to 4.4% in November 2025, down by 0.6 percentage points from October [1] - The number of unemployed individuals in November 2025 was 2.25 million, a reduction of 290,000 from October [1] - The labor force participation rate increased to 64.0%, up by 0.4 percentage points from October, indicating enhanced labor market activity [1] Employment Sector Analysis - The services sector accounted for the highest employment, with 30.59 million jobs in November 2025, representing 62.1% of total employment [1] - Agriculture and industry contributed 20.0% and 17.9% to total employment, respectively [1] - Significant year-on-year employment growth was observed in public administration, defense, compulsory social security, education, and administrative support services [1] - Month-on-month increases in employment were noted in wholesale and retail, as well as automotive and motorcycle repair sectors [1] Employment Quality Improvement - The underemployment rate in the Philippines improved to 10.4% in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from October [1] - Underemployment indicates that workers are seeking more hours or better job opportunities [1] Youth Employment Trends - The unemployment rate for the youth aged 15 to 24 years was 11.7% in November 2025, down by 2.4 percentage points from October [1] - The youth underemployment rate was 9.4%, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October [1]

今日周三(1月7日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于18.031一线上方，今日开盘于18.174元/克，截至发稿， 纸白银暂报18.184元/克，上涨0.85%，最高触及18.189元/克，最低下探18.189元/克，目前来看，纸白银 盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格区域震荡，目前价格小幅上涨，一小时布林带扩大，表明仍有上涨空间，开口向 上，走势处上涨轨道，RSI处于中性偏涨，市场买盘活跃，纸白银走势下方关注17.00-17.50支撑，上方 关注18.50-19.00阻力。 美联储巴尔金表示，鉴于失业率上升与通胀依然高企所带来的矛盾压力，货币政策前景仍处于微妙的平 衡之中。巴尔金表示，去年的75个基点政策宽松意味着利率目前已处于所谓的"中性利率"估值范围内， 他将其比作购买保险。 巴尔金指出："展望未来，政策将需要进行精细调整，以平衡我们在履行双重职责各方面所取得的进 展。"尽管失业率按历史标准衡量仍处于低位，但决策者正在关注其双重职责的两个方面，希望在控制 通胀的同时促进就业。 巴尔金说："由于招聘率处于低位，没人希望劳动力市场进一步恶化；而由于通胀偏离目标已接近五 年，也没人 ...

Group 1 - China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves data for December 2025 will be released on January 7 at 16:00 [1] - The Eurozone's preliminary CPI for December 2025 is expected to be 2.0%, slightly down from the previous value of 2.1% [1] - The Eurozone's core harmonized CPI for December 2025 is expected to remain stable at 2.4% [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment change for the US in December 2025 is anticipated to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, a recovery from the previous decrease of 32,000 jobs [2] - If the ADP employment figures exceed expectations, it may positively impact the prices of non-ferrous metals and crude oil [2] Group 3 - The Eurozone's unemployment rate for November 2025 is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4% [2] Group 4 - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3, 2025, are projected to be 195,000, slightly down from 199,000 [3] - A lower than expected jobless claims figure may support non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices [3] Group 5 - China's CPI for December 2025 is expected to grow by 0.90%, up from the previous 0.70%, while the PPI is expected to decline by 2.05%, a slight improvement from the previous decline of 2.20% [4] - A higher CPI and a lower PPI could positively influence industrial product futures while potentially suppressing stock index and government bond futures [4] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for December 2025 is expected to show a seasonally adjusted increase of 53,000 jobs, down from 64,000 [5] - The unemployment rate is projected to decrease to 4.5% from 4.6%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - A lower non-farm payroll figure could reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026 [5] Group 7 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2026 from the University of Michigan is expected to be 53.2, slightly up from 52.9 [5] - A higher consumer confidence index may support non-ferrous metals and crude oil prices while potentially suppressing precious metals prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - Future interest rate decisions need "fine-tuning" due to risks associated with unemployment and inflation targets [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Current policy interest rates are within a neutral range [1] - Inflation has decreased but remains above target levels, while the unemployment rate is low, indicating a desire to avoid further deterioration in the job market [1] - Last year demonstrated economic resilience, but demand and job growth were concentrated in certain sectors, leading to a decline in market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Uncertainty from last year is expected to diminish by 2026, with anticipated improvements in consumer and business confidence [1] - Changes in taxation, regulatory easing, and the impact of interest rate cuts are expected to stimulate the economy this year [1]

【紧盯周五非农，美联储1月降息的关键因素：失业率升至4.7%】花旗预测，12月美国失业率可能升至 4.7%，促使美联储在本月降息25个基点。在劳动力市场走弱和通胀降温的风险平衡下，今年实际降息 幅度基准预测为75个基点，且不排除超过100个基点的可能性。 ...

隔夜，货黄金高开高走，一度站上4450美元关口，创一周新高，最终收涨2.74%，最终收报于4449.04美元。今日亚市时段，黄金一度震荡上涨0.5%，刷新 一周高点至4473美元，延续前两个交易日涨势，目前在4456美元附近徘徊。 美联储向世界预告！ 隔夜，美国三大股指全线收涨，截至收盘，道指涨1.23%、创历史新高，纳指涨0.69%，标普500指数涨0.64%。 消息面上，第一个交易日美联储官员的讲话。 隔夜，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利在接受 CNBC 采访时表示："我认为通胀风险在于其持续性，这些关税影响需要数年时间才能在系统中消化，而我 确实认为失业率可能会从目前的水平跳升。" 要知道，卡什卡利历史上以"偏鹰"著称，不轻易替降息站台。当一个"曾经的鹰派"开始公开强调"通胀正在缓慢下降，但失业率仍有可能跳升"，这在联储 内部语言里，已经是明显偏鸽。 而且，此次讲话的时间点也极其敏感，选在了非农之前。 联储官员在非农前发声，通常只有两个目的，要么，压住市场过度解读非农的方向性风险；要么，提前校准预期，避免数据出来后市场剧烈波动。这次， 明显是第二种。卡什卡利选择强调"失业率可能跳升"，等于是在说如果非农不 ...