Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have slightly retreated from historical highs due to a rebound in the US dollar and improved global risk sentiment, but the downside potential for gold remains limited due to concerns over a potential US government shutdown and strong expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a strong reversal with gold prices recovering previous losses and reaching new highs, indicating robust buying sentiment [3] - Despite the strong upward movement, there are signs of stagnation at high levels, suggesting a potential short-term decline in momentum and a shift towards a consolidation phase [3][4] - Key resistance levels are identified at 4300-4320, with significant support at 4245-4230, which could guide trading strategies [3] Technical Analysis - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to the market's reaction to various fundamental factors, with a focus on the importance of recognizing trends and managing risk in a highly fluctuating environment [4][6] - The presence of speculative trading and the behavior of institutional investors are critical in understanding current market dynamics, especially during periods of high volatility [7][8] Trading Strategy - Recommendations suggest focusing on buying on dips while being cautious of the risks associated with chasing prices at high levels [3][10] - The market is currently in a range-bound phase, with attention needed on key price levels to determine potential breakout or breakdown scenarios [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The performance of domestic futures contracts on October 21, 2025, was mixed. Some contracts like shipping container freight on the Europe route and precious metals showed significant gains, while others such as coking coal and coke declined. Different commodities have different market outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and geopolitical situations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of the close on October 21, shipping container freight on the Europe route rose over 5%, Shanghai gold rose over 2%, and rubber rose nearly 2%. Coking coal fell over 3% and coke fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, CSI 500 index futures (IC) rose 2.08%, etc. Among treasury bond futures, 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.16% [6][7]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:17 on October 21, funds flowed into CSI 500 2512 (2.453 billion), CSI 1000 2512 (1.412 billion), and SSE 50 2512 (1.179 billion). Funds flowed out of coking coal 2601 (735 million), Shanghai silver 2512 (288 million), and styrene 2511 (244 million) [7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper**: Copper opened low and closed high with a strong intraday trend. Supply is tight due to inventory reduction and smelter maintenance. High prices are not well - accepted by downstream, but demand has rigid support. With the end of the peak season, the upward space is limited [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and closed low with a weak intraday trend. It shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The production profit is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, the price is supported, but demand may decline next month [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the demand peak is over. The supply - demand situation is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, it will fluctuate weakly. With upcoming Sino - US trade talks, price volatility may increase [12]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. With upcoming Sino - US trade talks and a strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工率 is low, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The supply - demand pressure is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][17]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is at a neutral level, and new production capacity has been added. The peak season demand is not as expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **PVC**: Supply is still at a relatively high level, and export expectations are weak. Social inventory is high, and the pressure is large. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and closed low with a weak trend. Supply is tight, and demand is affected by the profitability of coke enterprises. The peak season provides some support [21]. - **Urea**: The futures price opened low and closed high. The cost is rising, and demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak and stable [23].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period without significant increases [2][3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with ongoing demand from official purchases and ETF holdings providing a stabilizing effect [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the key resistance level of 4270, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend, with short-term support identified at 4320 [5][6] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently facing downward pressure, with WTI crude oil prices nearing a low of 55.12 USD per barrel, influenced by easing trade concerns and market sentiment [6][7] - Despite short-term support around 57 USD for WTI and 61 USD for Brent, the long-term outlook remains cautious due to ongoing supply-demand dynamics and potential trade uncertainties [6][7] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for oil, with MACD showing a downward momentum, indicating that the market may continue to experience downward pressure in the near term [7]

Core Points - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare-related spending, leading to a halt in federal operations since October 1 [1] - The shutdown is causing widespread negative impacts on various sectors, particularly tourism and small businesses, as government services are suspended [1][3] Impact on Tourism and Small Businesses - Numerous museums and attractions in Washington D.C. have closed, resulting in a significant drop in tourist activity in the National Mall area, which traditionally attracts large crowds [3] - The closure of national parks and other tourist sites is affecting local businesses, including restaurants, transportation, and hotels, which rely on tourist traffic [3][10] Economic Losses - The U.S. tourism economy is reportedly losing approximately $1 billion per week due to the shutdown, while the overall GDP is estimated to be losing about $150 billion weekly [12] - The Federal Aviation Administration has reported flight delays and cancellations due to air traffic control staff shortages, with over 5,800 flights delayed in a single day [10] Public Sentiment - Many Americans express disappointment and frustration over the shutdown, feeling exhausted by the ongoing political conflicts and concerned about increasing societal division [5][8] - There is a growing sentiment among the public that the political stalemate is causing undue hardship for ordinary citizens and visitors alike [8][10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but be wary of the repetition of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will continue to support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to turn into a fluctuating trend. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term. The prices of various commodities in different industries are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations, government shutdowns, production capacity, inventory, and policy changes, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices; the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will support the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term, but the physical tightness in London needs to be noted [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term global trade frictions are repeated, copper price fluctuations intensify. The continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of domestic and foreign macro - liquidity are expected to drive the copper price to continue to operate strongly [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The alumina production capacity is continuously released, and the production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Pay attention to the cost support recently [1]. - **Zinc**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Sino - US trade frictions have slightly eased, and the Fed rate cut expectation at the end of the month remains high. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in the fourth quarter. The nickel price may be dominated by the macro situation and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of high - inventory suppression. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices in the medium and long term [1]. Chemical Industry - **Polysilicon**: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. The production plan in October has increased unexpectedly. Organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - **Other Chemicals**: For various chemicals such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, urea, PE, PP, PVC, ES, LPG, etc., their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, market demand, and international market conditions, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Black Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coils are unclear, and the valuations are low. It is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month of iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward potential. The supply of silicon iron and glass is in excess, and the prices are under pressure. The price of coal and coke may fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to the new提法 of "anti - involution" in the domestic major meeting communique [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Grains**: For palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, etc., the market is affected by factors such as international trade policies, production areas' supply and demand, and inventory. The market is in a state of multiple - factor entanglement, and different trading strategies are recommended [1]. - **Cotton and Sugar**: The short - term domestic cotton price is likely to fluctuate widely, and the market may face pressure in the long term. The raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. The domestic sugar price is expected to have limited rebound space, and the idea of selling at high prices is maintained [1]. - **Corn and Soybean Meal**: The selling pressure of US soybeans suppresses the US market price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by Sino - US trade policies and supply - demand relationships, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1]. Energy and Others - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are affected by factors such as OPEC + production increase, seasonal demand changes, and US tariff policies, showing a fluctuating trend. The prices of other products such as BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are also affected by multiple factors such as production capacity, inventory, and market demand [1]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping price has fallen to a relatively low level, with the possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - China's economic growth slowed in September, with a widening gap between domestic and external demand. Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, while exports in September were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. Amid increasing external tariff pressure, China has introduced frequent growth - stabilizing policies [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea from October 28th to November 1st [2] - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown, as the market has not fully priced in the severity of the issue [3] - In the commodity market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach in the near term. Each commodity sector has its own characteristics and risks [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption." In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a new low for the year. External tariff pressure increased, and China introduced growth - stabilizing policies. The Third Quarter GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% for the first three quarters. Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, while social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3%. Fixed - asset investment continued to decline [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated. The delay in Sino - US tariff implementation will expire on November 10th. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing tariffs on imports, and China has responded with counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea [2] - The US government shutdown issue persists. The Republican temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate, and economic data releases have been delayed. The market has not fully priced in the severity of the shutdown [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints but is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply; the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals; precious metals have short - term price volatility risks but long - term buying opportunities [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing. The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and 4.8% in the third quarter. Social consumer goods retail总额 in September increased by 3% year - on - year. The national urban survey unemployment rate in September was 5.2%. The stock market showed mixed trends, with coal and gas sectors rising and precious metals sector falling. Sino - US officials agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon. The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses starting from November 1st. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached an agreement on coalition government [6]

第11次表决仍未通过！美政府"停摆"继续 多领域面临更多混乱 由于美国共和、民主两党在医保相关福利支出等核心议题上分歧巨大，国会参议院未能在9月30日上一 财年结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 分析认为，美国共和、民主两党在关键问题上互不妥协，加上两党都试图利用"停摆"服务各自政治目 的，政府"停摆"恐仍将持续，其多重负面影响也将加剧。 中新网10月21日电 综合报道，当地时间10月20日，美国参议院第11次就政府拨款法案进行投票表决， 仍未获得通过。分析称，随着美国政府"停摆"继续，其多重负面影响也将加剧。 图片来源：美国政治新闻网Politico报道截图 "停摆"继续：第11次表决仍未通过 据报道，当地时间10月20日，美国参议院第11次就政府拨款法案进行投票表决，仍未获得通过，因此美 国政府自10月1日开始的"停摆"继续。 该法案原计划将政府资金延长至11月21日，最终以50票赞成、43票反对未达通过所需的60票门槛。 更多混乱：美核安全管理局开始强制休假 目前，美国政府"停摆"已波及航空运输、公共服务、数据发布等多个领域，在影响民众日常生活的同时 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a market style shift, with a transition from "storytelling" to "performance" as liquidity tightens and investors focus on companies with high earnings visibility [6][7] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a tightening liquidity condition, with the Federal Reserve signaling the potential end of balance sheet reduction, which may lead to lower long-term interest rates benefiting gold and long bonds [7][9] - The report highlights the importance of cash flow stability and reasonable valuations in the current market, suggesting a preference for high-quality companies while avoiding high beta small-cap stocks [9][10] Market Performance Summary - The Nasdaq ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust) experienced a decline of 1.17% over one day and 2.34% over five days, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) saw a decrease of 0.10% and 1.18% respectively [4] - The Russell 3000 Index fell by 0.37% over one day and 1.41% over five days, indicating a general downturn in the broader market [4] - Gold prices increased by 1.33% over one day, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset amid market volatility [4][9] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the VIX index, a measure of market volatility, rose by 6.40%, indicating increased market uncertainty [4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is reported at 4.0%, with a slight increase of 2 basis points, suggesting a stable interest rate environment [4] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) showed a slight decline, reflecting a potential weakening of the dollar in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties [4][9] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining positions in gold and high-quality long bonds as a hedge against market volatility, while favoring defensive equities with strong cash flows [9][10] - It suggests a tactical shift towards larger companies with solid earnings and avoiding small-cap stocks that exhibit high volatility [9][10] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to prepare for potential fluctuations in trade negotiations and Federal Reserve policies, advocating for a cautious approach in the current environment [9][10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that recent events suggest short-term volatility in the Hong Kong stock market may not have ended, but the long-term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - Economic data, US-China tariff news, US tech earnings, and the Fourth Plenary Session are expected to influence trading patterns and styles in the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The technology sector is facing increased volatility risks, with US tech earnings impacting the trading rhythm of Chinese tech stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the US stock market showed resilience despite concerns over US-China tensions and credit worries, with the Nasdaq leading gains at 2.1% [1][4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance suggests a likelihood of maintaining the current policy path, with a potential rate cut in October being the optimal solution [1][5] - The report notes that the average win rate for October over the past decade is low, while the advantages of November and December are relatively prominent [1][23] Group 3 - The report discusses the ongoing US government shutdown, which has entered its third week, potentially exacerbating negative impacts on the economy [3] - Concerns over credit quality in regional banks have emerged, but these are viewed as isolated incidents rather than indicative of a broader liquidity crisis [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring US-China trade relations, as further escalation could negatively impact the US economy and inflation risks [3][4] Group 4 - The report notes that developed markets saw an increase of 1.4% while emerging markets declined by 0.3% during the week [4][12] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 8.0%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.0%, with public utilities leading sector gains [4][12] - The report highlights significant inflows into financials and non-essential consumer sectors, while the information technology sector experienced outflows [4][12] Group 5 - The report indicates that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $446.43 billion, with the US stock ETFs leading at $231.7 billion [7][49] - The technology sector was the top recipient of inflows among global stock ETFs, while the communication sector experienced the most significant outflows [7][51] - The report also notes that institutional investors marginally increased their holdings in gold, with significant inflows into major gold ETFs [6][54]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in gold prices has led major jewelry brands to announce price increases for their gold products, with some brands experiencing price hikes of up to 35% [2][6]. Group 1: Price Adjustments by Jewelry Brands - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise retail prices of gold products by 12% to 18% by the end of October due to the impact of rising gold prices on costs [1]. - Lao Pu Gold announced its third price adjustment of the year, with increases expected on October 26, following previous hikes of under 10% in February and 10% to 12% in August [1]. - Other brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Sheng are also set to increase their gold jewelry prices, with Chow Sang Sang's increase ranging from 25% to 35% and Chow Tai Sheng's expected to be around 15% [2]. Group 2: Consumer Experiences and Issues - Consumers have reported delays and cancellations in receiving their gold orders, with some experiencing significant price differences between the purchase price and current market prices [2][3]. - A consumer named Jia Jia faced issues with an order for a gold bar, where the seller canceled the order after the market price increased, leading to frustration over the lack of fulfillment [2]. - Another consumer, Mr. Zheng, had his order canceled unexpectedly while it was in transit, highlighting the challenges faced by buyers in the current market [3][4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The price of gold has surged significantly, with London gold prices surpassing $4,000 per ounce and reaching over $4,200 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 60% [6]. - Major investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Bank of America predicting a target price of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce [6]. - Analysts attribute the rising gold prices to factors such as increased demand for defensive assets amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7].