Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting significantly impacted global markets, leading to a sharp recovery in the Dow Jones index and a drop in the 2-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since September 2022, with a near certainty of interest rate cuts by the end of October [1][3]. Economic Context - Powell's statement that "there is no risk-free path for policy" reassured the market amid a challenging economic environment characterized by government shutdowns affecting data availability and a softening job market, while inflation remains above target [3][5]. - The government shutdown has delayed critical economic reports, including the September non-farm payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions [5][7]. Employment Market Insights - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in a year, indicating a growing difficulty for job seekers despite companies reporting challenges in finding suitable candidates [7][9]. - The non-farm payrolls data showed a disappointing increase of only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below market expectations, with previous months' data also revised downward [9][10]. Inflation Concerns - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-over-year, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, primarily driven by tariffs and potential new tariffs under the previous administration [12][13]. - There are concerns about rising service sector inflation amidst weakening job growth, placing the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [13][15]. Federal Reserve's Policy Dilemma - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions reflect a divide on the pace of interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for more aggressive action to support the job market, while others caution against rapid cuts that could reignite inflation [15][17]. - Powell hinted at the potential end of the balance sheet reduction (QT) plan, signaling a shift towards providing liquidity to the market, which was positively received by analysts and led to market reactions [17].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican temporary funding bill with a vote of 51 to 45, requiring 60 votes to proceed [1] - This marks the 10th consecutive vote in the Senate to reject the temporary funding bill since the government shutdown began [1] - The government shutdown is expected to continue at least until next week [1]

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices opened higher on October 17, surpassing $4,360 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4,392 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] - As of the report, spot gold was priced at $4,357.19 per ounce, reflecting a 0.71% increase from the previous day [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also rose, with brands like Lao Miao and Zhou Sheng Sheng seeing significant daily increases in their gold prices per gram [2][3] Group 2 - The surge in gold trading is partly supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, amid uncertainties regarding the U.S. government shutdown and its potential economic impacts [3][4] - Global central banks are actively purchasing gold, and there is a trend of reallocating funds from U.S. Treasury securities to gold among various investors [4] - Bank of America predicts that factors such as the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and rising debt levels will continue to drive gold prices higher in the coming year [4] Group 3 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on October 16, urging member units to enhance risk control measures due to recent volatility in international precious metal prices [4] - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have issued warnings about increased market risks associated with precious metal price fluctuations [5] - China Bank announced an adjustment in the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation products, increasing it from 850 yuan to 950 yuan [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that spot gold prices have surged, breaking through $4,300 per ounce and reaching a new historical high of over $4,370 per ounce [1] - Domestic brands of gold jewelry have also seen prices exceed 1,200 yuan per gram [3] - The current trading surge in gold is partly supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, amidst uncertainties regarding the U.S. government shutdown which may impact the economy [4] Group 2 - A global trend of central banks increasing gold purchases and rising holdings in gold ETFs is contributing to the increase in precious metal prices [5] - There is a noticeable shift of funds from U.S. Treasury securities to gold among global central banks, institutional investors, and individual investors [5] - Factors such as the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and rising debt levels are expected to continue driving gold prices higher in the coming year, according to Bank of America [5]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 铝：具备上涨弹性 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20975 | ર્સ | -115 | 330 | 620 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21060 | l | l | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2796 | 52 | 14 | 177 | 230 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | ୧୧୫୦3 | -16299 | -93920 | -92783 | -51574 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：昨夜金价持续强势，纽约金和伦敦金逼近 4400 美元/盎 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a historical high of $4,322.04 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising global tensions and economic uncertainty [1][2] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a store of value and a hedge against inflation [2][18] - The rapid increase in gold prices may lead to potential adjustments and increased volatility in the market [2][18] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and high smelting output, despite the smelting profits being at breakeven levels [2][19] - Investment in electric grids continues to grow, while other sectors like real estate show weakness, indicating mixed demand dynamics for copper [2][19] - The recent mining accident in Indonesia is likely to create a supply gap in the global copper market, providing long-term support for copper prices [2][19] Group 3: Oil - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with recent geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, influencing market sentiment [3][12] - OPEC projects a significant increase in global oil demand, with an expected rise of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year [3][12] - Short-term oil prices may face downward pressure despite the anticipated demand growth [3][12] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated a potential extension of tariff exemptions on China if strict rare earth export controls are lifted, signaling ongoing trade negotiations [6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed openness to equal consultations with the U.S. regarding trade issues, highlighting the importance of mutual respect [7] - Domestic industrial enterprises are accelerating equipment upgrades, with a notable increase in machinery procurement, indicating a positive trend in capital investment [8]

Market Overview - On October 16, US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, Nasdaq down 0.47%, and S&P 500 down 0.63% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly fell, with Tesla and AMD dropping over 1%, while Nvidia rose over 1% [1] - Cryptocurrency, rare earth concepts, and regional bank stocks saw significant declines, with Zion Bank down over 13% and HUT 8 down over 9% [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.91%, with most popular Chinese concept stocks declining, including Century Internet down over 5% and Kingsoft Cloud down over 2% [3] - Bitcoin experienced a downward trend, trading at $107,925.7, down 2.56% as of October 17 [3] - In the last 24 hours, 208,860 individuals were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, totaling $733 million (approximately 5.2 billion RMB) [5] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.36%, closing at $57.46 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 1.37%, closing at $61.06 per barrel [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 3.4%, closing at $4,344.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 3.99%, closing at $53.43 per ounce, both reaching new closing highs [6] Gold Market Insights - On October 17, COMEX gold opened higher, surpassing $4,360 per ounce, and spot gold reached a high of $4,379.38, closing at $4,367.30, up 0.96% [7] - Analysts attribute the current gold trading surge to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, alongside increased gold purchases by global central banks and rising gold ETF holdings [9] - Bank of America suggests that the White House's "non-traditional policy framework" will continue to favor gold, with factors like expanding US fiscal deficits and rising debt likely to push gold prices higher next year [9] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated a preference for a 50 basis point rate cut, but expects a 25 basis point cut instead, emphasizing the need to observe market reactions [11] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is 96.3%, while the likelihood of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 85% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican temporary funding bill for the tenth consecutive time, highlighting ongoing challenges in government funding negotiations [2] Group 1: Legislative Context - The Senate voted 51 to 45 against the temporary funding bill, which requires 60 votes to proceed [2] - This bill aims to fund the government until the end of November [2] - The failure to pass the bill follows a government shutdown and marks the tenth consecutive vote against it in the past two weeks [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican temporary funding bill with a vote of 51 to 45, requiring 60 votes to proceed [1] - This marks the tenth consecutive vote in the Senate that has rejected the temporary funding bill since the government shutdown began two weeks ago [1] Summary by Category - **Legislative Action** - The Republican party's temporary funding bill aimed to provide government funding until the end of November [1] - The Senate's inability to secure the necessary votes highlights ongoing political challenges in reaching a consensus [1] - **Government Shutdown Context** - The failure to pass the funding bill contributes to the ongoing government shutdown, which has persisted for two weeks [1] - The repeated rejections of the bill indicate a significant impasse in the legislative process [1]