Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to see a slight increase in both supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations due to policy influence. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weakening demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. Option market sentiment is bullish, and it is advised to trade with a light position in a volatile way [2]. - The cast aluminum market is likely in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. Light - position volatile trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,735 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the alumina futures main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main - to - second - consecutive contract spread for Shanghai Aluminum is 50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; for alumina, it is - 41 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Aluminum main contract positions decreased by 4,524 hands to 210,986 hands; alumina main contract positions decreased by 18,724 hands to 96,168 hands. LME aluminum inventory increased by 5,275 tons to 475,850 tons; alumina total inventory increased by 38,284 tons to 85,472 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 600 yuan to 110 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 55 yuan to - 105 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina production increased by 26.13 tons to 774.93 tons, and demand decreased by 23.83 tons to 696.19 tons. The supply - demand balance increased by 52.40 tons to 27.14 tons [2]. - **Trade**: Alumina imports increased by 3.38 tons to 10.13 tons, and exports decreased by 4 tons to 17 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: Electrolytic aluminum total capacity increased by 2.5 tons to 4,523.2 tons, and the开工 rate increased by 0.10% to 97.78%. Aluminum product production increased by 11.17 tons to 587.37 tons [2]. - **Trade**: Unwrought aluminum and aluminum product exports increased by 5.2 tons to 54.2 tons; aluminum alloy exports increased by 0.16 tons to 2.58 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: Automobile production increased by 16.66 million to 280.86 million; aluminum alloy production increased by 2.4 tons to 166.9 tons [2]. - **Index**: The National Real Estate Prosperity Index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 7.79%; the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.01% to 8.68% [2]. - **Ratio**: The purchase - to - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options increased by 0.0403 to 1.19 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House may announce the candidate this fall [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by October, consumers will bear 67% of the tariff cost, and enterprises' share will drop to less than 10% [2]. - In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle production and sales up 26.3% and 27.4% respectively, and new energy vehicle exports up 1.2 times [2]. - China opposes the politicization, instrumentalization, and weaponization of science, technology, and economic and trade issues [2].

Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - The US stock market faced pressure with all three major indices closing down: Dow Jones down 0.45%, Nasdaq down 0.30%, and S&P 500 down 0.25% [1] - In the tech sector, Nvidia fell by 0.3%, AMD by 0.28%, and Apple by 0.95%, while Tesla saw an increase of 2.85% after applying for a household electricity supply license in the UK [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.29%. Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Baidu all fell over 1%, while Tencent Music rose over 2%, XPeng Motors increased over 5%, and Bilibili rose over 1% [1] Group 2: Gold Market Reaction - President Trump stated that gold would not be subject to tariffs, but this did not lead to significant short-term fluctuations in gold prices, with spot gold maintaining a 1.58% decline [2][3] - Following an unexpected ruling by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) that gold imports would incur tariffs, gold futures surged to a historical high, causing disruptions in gold transportation [4] - Analysts noted that if the CBP's decision remains, it could have profound implications for the global gold market and the smooth operation of US futures contracts, distinguishing gold from other commodities affected by tariffs [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has expanded to eight, including current Vice Chairs Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan [5] - The selection process is being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who will interview more candidates in the coming weeks [5] - Other candidates still under consideration include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Marc Sumerlin, Kevin Warsh, and James Bullard [5]

Market Performance - The US stock market faced pressure with all three major indices closing lower: Dow Jones down 0.45%, Nasdaq down 0.30%, and S&P 500 down 0.25% [1] - In the tech sector, Nvidia fell 0.3%, AMD dropped 0.28%, and Apple decreased by 0.95%. Conversely, Tesla saw an increase of 2.85% after applying for a household electricity supply license in the UK [1] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 0.29%, with Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Baidu each falling over 1%, and JD.com dropping nearly 1%. In contrast, Tencent Music rose over 2%, Xiaopeng Motors increased by over 5%, Bilibili gained over 1%, and Beike rose by 1% [2] Gold Market - President Trump stated that gold would not be subject to tariffs, but this did not lead to significant short-term fluctuations in gold prices. Spot gold maintained a 1.58% decline, stabilizing around $3,341.40, while COMEX gold futures held a 2.55% drop near $3,402 [3] - The situation arose from an unexpected ruling by the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which announced that gold imports would be subject to tariffs, affecting 1 kg and 100 oz gold bars. This decision was made in response to an inquiry from a Swiss gold refinery [4] - The ruling caused market turbulence, with gold futures soaring to a historical high last Friday. Analysts noted that if the decision remains, it could have profound implications for the global gold market and the smooth operation of US futures contracts [4] Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has expanded to eight individuals, including current Fed Vice Chairs Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, as well as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan [5][6] - Other candidates still under consideration include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Marc Sumerlin, Kevin Warsh, and James Bullard. The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will interview more candidates in the coming weeks [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump team is expanding the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, including current Fed Governor Bowman and Vice Chair Jefferson, with an announcement expected this fall [1] Group 1 - The Trump administration is actively considering new candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position [1] - Current Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Vice Chair Jefferson are now included in the candidate pool [1] - An official announcement regarding the new Federal Reserve Chair is anticipated in the fall of this year [1]

Group 1 - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair include James Bullard and Mark Sullivan, expanding the list to about 10 candidates [1][2][4] - Morgan Stanley economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, followed by three additional cuts, bringing the benchmark rate to between 3.25% and 3.5% [5][6] - The appointment of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve Board member is expected to influence the Fed's future monetary policy, with a more dovish stance anticipated [5][6] Group 2 - The current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, is under pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, with several candidates expressing support for rate cuts [3][5] - The upcoming employment data in August will be crucial in determining the extent of potential rate cuts, with a 4.4% unemployment rate possibly leading to larger cuts [5] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds may steepen if Trump's key appointments succeed, reflecting market reactions to the Fed's policy direction [6]

Stock Market Performance - All three major indices in the US closed higher this week, with the Dow Jones up 1.35%, S&P 500 up 2.43%, and Nasdaq up 3.87% [1] - On Friday, the Dow rose by 206.97 points (0.47%) to close at 44,175.61 points, Nasdaq increased by 207.32 points (0.98%) to 21,450.02 points, and S&P 500 gained 49.45 points (0.78%) to 6,389.45 points [1] - Nasdaq reached an intraday all-time high of 21,464.53 points during Friday's trading [1] Individual Stock Movements - Apple (AAPL.US) surged over 4% on Friday and accumulated a 13% increase for the week, marking its best weekly performance since July 2020 [1] - Tesla (TSLA.US) rose by 2.29%, while Google (GOOG.US) increased by 2.44% [1] - Freddie Mac (FMCC.US) saw a significant rise of over 20% [1] European Stock Market - The German DAX30 index fell by 38.84 points (0.16%) to 24,151.86 points, while the UK FTSE 100 index decreased by 13.02 points (0.14%) to 9,087.75 points [2] - The French CAC40 index rose by 33.68 points (0.44%) to 7,743.00 points, and the Spanish IBEX35 index increased by 145.70 points (0.99%) to 14,823.20 points [2] Asian Stock Market - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose over 1.8%, while the KOSPI index in South Korea fell by 0.55% [3] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for September settled at $63.88 per barrel, unchanged from the previous day, while October Brent crude oil futures rose by 16 cents to $66.59 per barrel, a 0.24% increase [3] - Gold futures in New York rose by 0.13% to $3,458.2, reaching an intraday high of $3,534.1 [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin decreased by 0.54% to $116,889.9, while Ethereum increased by over 3% to $4,044.24 [5] Employment Data in Canada - Canada saw a reduction of 40,800 jobs in July, with the employment rate dropping to 60.7%, the lowest level since the pandemic began [9] - The youth unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 rose to 14.6%, the highest level since September 2010, excluding the pandemic years [9] Company News - Tesla (TSLA.US) received approval for a rideshare license in Texas, paving the way for its autonomous taxi service [10] - The US government is preparing to list Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (FMCC.US) later this year, potentially raising around $30 billion [11] - The automotive industry, particularly companies like Ford (F.US) and General Motors (GM.US), is facing significant losses due to tariffs, with projected losses of $7 billion in profits by 2025 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively seeking a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate due to his willingness to base policy on forecasts rather than existing data and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system [1][4] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Christopher Waller is currently the most prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump's team to discuss the role [1] - Other candidates include former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, both of whom are also in contention for the position [1][2] - Trump has narrowed the candidate list to three individuals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2] Group 2: Waller's Background and Experience - Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve in 2020 and previously served as the research director and executive vice president of the St. Louis Fed [4] - He has engaged in public debates with influential economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and has successfully argued that inflation could be reduced without significantly increasing unemployment [4] - Waller has emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the proper functioning of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3: Recent Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Waller and fellow board member Michelle Bowman voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [3] - A recent employment report indicated a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past three months, supporting Waller and Bowman's dissenting opinions [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has shown a divide in opinions, with some members believing the labor market remains strong and advocating for patience in adjusting interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller is emerging as a favored candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, supported by former President Trump, which has led the market to reassess future monetary policy directions [2][3]. Group 1: Waller's Profile and Market Impact - Waller has been a Federal Reserve Governor since 2020, known for his academic background and policy flexibility, advocating for quicker monetary easing when inflation risks are manageable [3]. - His potential appointment is seen as a stabilizing factor for long-term U.S. Treasury yields and maintaining dollar inflows, alleviating market concerns about abrupt shifts in monetary policy [2][3]. - The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index rising by 0.23% to 98.400 following the news of Waller's candidacy [2]. Group 2: Other Candidates and Market Sentiment - Other candidates mentioned by Trump include Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, with Waller, Hassett, and Warsh being the top contenders according to betting platforms [5]. - Analysts express concerns that candidates closely aligned with the White House may raise fears about the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially negatively impacting asset prices [5]. - Hassett is viewed as favoring aggressive fiscal stimulus, which could pressure the dollar and increase bond market volatility if appointed [5]. - Warsh's history of advocating for tighter monetary policy raises questions about his potential approach if he were to take office, with concerns about a more aggressive balance sheet reduction [5].

据外媒报道，知情人士透露，在美国总统特朗普的顾问们为鲍威尔寻找替代者之际，美联储理事沃勒正 成为担任美联储主席的热门人选。 知情人士称，特朗普的顾问们对沃勒愿意基于预测而非当前数据来调整政策，以及他对整个美联储体系 的深刻了解印象深刻。 这些因讨论私人审议而要求匿名的人士表示，沃勒已就该职位与总统的团队会面，但尚未与特朗普本人 会面。 上周，沃勒是投票反对央行连续第五次维持基准利率不变的两名美联储理事会成员之一。他和他的同事 鲍曼两人都倾向于降息25个基点，理由是劳动力市场出现越来越多的疲软迹象，另外，二者均由特朗普 提名。 在美联储宣布维持利率不变的决定几天后，一份就业报告显示，在截至7月份的前三个月里，就业增长 急剧放缓，这证实了沃勒和鲍曼异议的可信度。 知情人士称，前美联储官员凯文·沃什和现任特朗普国家经济委员会主任的凯文·哈塞特也仍在竞争之 列，该职位将在鲍威尔的主席任期于2026年5月届满时空出。 白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）在一份声明中说，"特朗普总统将继续提名最称职、最有经验的人 选，然而，除非消息来自特朗普总统本人，否则任何关于人事决定的讨论都应被视为纯粹的猜测。" 美联储的一 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美联储理事沃勒被特朗普团队视作美联储主席的优先人选之一。沃勒已经会见特朗普的团队。他们对沃 勒的降息意愿感到印象深刻。 ...