Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is in a stage of simultaneous growth in supply and demand and benign inventory digestion, with potential support for aluminum products [6] - For the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, consider light - position short - term long trading at low prices; for the Alumina main contract, consider light - position oscillating trading [6] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed an oscillating trend, with a weekly change of - 0.6%, closing at 19,910 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 4.11%, closing at 2,729 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, Trump relaxed automobile tariff policies, and the US reached a trade agreement with an anonymous country. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission allocated 81 billion yuan in super - long - term special treasury bond funds. Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite will seasonally decrease later. The alumina market has a slight contraction in supply and a steady increase in demand. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of simultaneous growth in supply and demand and inventory digestion [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices for the Shanghai Aluminum main contract and light - position oscillating trading for the Alumina main contract [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Movement**: As of April 30, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum closing price was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (0.33%) from April 23. As of April 29, 2025, the LME Aluminum closing price was 2,465.5 US dollars/ton, up 85.5 US dollars/ton (3.59%) from April 23. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 8.11, up 0.27 from April 23 [9][10] - **Position Changes**: As of April 30, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 512,828 lots, down 15,640 lots (2.96%) from April 23. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 12,582 lots, down 875 lots from April 23 [13] - **Price Spread Changes**: As of April 30, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 2,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from April 23. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,310 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton from April 23 [18] - **Spot Price Movement**: As of April 30, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,090 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton (0.7%) from April 23. The spot discount was 20 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [21] - **Inventory Changes**: As of April 29, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 417,575 tons, down 14,125 tons (3.27%) from April 22. As of April 30, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 175,857 tons, down 2,740 tons (1.53%) from the previous week. As of April 28, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 610,000 tons, down 31,000 tons (4.84%) from April 21. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 68,563 tons, down 9,255 tons (11.89%) from April 23. The LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 250,875 tons, down 1,200 tons (0.48%) from April 22 [25] 3. Industry Situation - **Bauxite**: In March 2025, the monthly bauxite imports were 16.4657 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.26% and a year - on - year increase of 39.06%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative bauxite imports were 47.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.93% [29] - **Alumina**: As of April 30, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,745 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton (2.38%) from April 23. In March 2025, the alumina output was 7.4752 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative alumina output was 22.5959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In March 2025, the alumina imports were 11,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 96.31%. The alumina exports were 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.86% and a year - on - year increase of 114.29%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative alumina imports were 77,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87.94% [32][35] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In March 2025, the electrolytic aluminum imports were 222,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.94%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum imports were 361,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51%. In March 2025, the electrolytic aluminum exports were 8,700 tons. From January to March 2025, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum exports were 21,000 tons. In 2024 from January to November, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 295,100 tons. In March 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 374,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 1.1066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [38][43] - **Aluminum Products**: In March 2025, the aluminum products output was 598,170 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum products output was 1.5405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In March 2025, the aluminum products imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%. The exports were 510,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum products imports were 950,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. The exports were 1.36 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [46] - **Aluminum Alloys**: In March 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 165,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 414,400 tons. In March 2025, the aluminum alloy imports were 89,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. The exports were 18,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.93%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum alloy imports were 280,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.81%. The exports were 53,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% [49] - **Real Estate**: In March 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.96, an increase of 0.17 from the previous month and 2.1 from the same period last year. From January to March 2024, the new housing construction area was 129.964559 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.8%. The housing completion area was 130.602722 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51% [53] - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to March 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 11.5% year - on - year. In March 2025, Chinese automobile sales were 2,915,476 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The automobile production was 3,005,833 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% [56] 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillating movement of aluminum prices in the future, consider constructing a double - selling strategy to short volatility [60]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view for TL2506 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with an overall view of "range oscillation" due to the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range oscillation". Although currently in a high - level consolidation, future macro - policies will be concentrated, giving treasury bond futures upward momentum. In the short term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillating weakly" respectively, with a "range oscillation" view. The core logic is the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures rebounded comprehensively, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.69%. The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds benefits the 30 - year treasury bond futures. Currently, domestic macro data is good, and the overseas Fed's reserve - reduction cycle has not arrived, so the central bank will remain stable in the short term. After the April Politburo meeting, the time for monetary policy interest rate and reserve - ratio cuts is approaching, and treasury bond futures have upward momentum in the future while mainly oscillating in the short term [4].

财政部拟第一次续发行2025年超长期特别国债(二期)。本次续发行国债为30年期固定利率附息债。竞争 性招标面值总额710亿元，不进行甲类成员追加投标。本次续发行国债票面利率与之前发行的同期国债 相同，为1.88%。本次续发行国债的起息日、兑付安排与之前发行的同期国债相同。自2025年4月25日 开始计息，按半年付息，每年4月25日(节假日顺延，下同)、10月25日支付利息，2055年4月25日偿还本 金并支付最后一次利息。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent Central Political Bureau meeting is to enhance the income of low- and middle-income groups and to significantly develop service consumption to boost economic growth [1][2] - The issuance of special long-term government bonds, including 500 billion yuan for 20-year bonds and 710 billion yuan for 30-year bonds, aims to support consumption and stimulate domestic demand [1][2] - The total social financing scale increased by 15.18 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, which is 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial support for consumption [2] Group 2 - Expanding service consumption is viewed as a systematic project that requires a multi-faceted approach, including demand expansion, supply optimization, and environmental improvement [3] - Policies need to be coordinated across various sectors, including fiscal, financial, and industrial policies, to effectively stimulate consumption [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop tailored financial products to meet the diverse needs of consumers, particularly in new consumption scenarios such as digital and green consumption [6]

近日，2025年超长期特别国债发行"开闸"，两期共计1210亿元债券顺利发行。与此同时，中央金融 机构注资特别国债也启动发行。中央政治局会议强调，"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用 足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使 用"。宏观政策加速落地显效，推动我国经济稳中有进、持续向好，更有效应对外部变化的不确定性。 从2024年起连续几年发行超长期特别国债，是党中央作出的一项重大决策部署。2024年我国发行1 万亿元超长期特别国债，其中，7000亿元用于支持国家重大战略和重点领域安全能力建设；3000亿元用 于支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，特别是加大汽车报废更新、家电产品以旧换新补贴力度，拉 动消费效应明显。1万亿元超长期特别国债的发行使用，有力支持了"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 今年我国财政政策进一步加力，明确要"更加积极"，超长期特别国债也更加给力。一方面，资金规 模更大。按照预算安排，今年我国拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，比上年增加3000亿元，其中， 8000亿元用于更大力度支持"两重"项目，5000亿元用于加力扩围实施"两新"政策。另一方 ...

Primary Market - A total of 19 offshore bonds were issued this week, including 6 offshore RMB bonds, 6 USD bonds, 4 HKD bonds, and 3 EUR bonds, with issuance sizes of 54.2 billion RMB, 615 million USD, 798.8 billion HKD, and 1.9 million EUR respectively [1] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 1 billion RMB by the Asian Development Bank, while the highest coupon rate was 6.5% issued by Huangshi Chantuo Holdings Group [1] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 200 million USD by Chengdu Economic Development Investment Group, with the highest coupon rate of 7.0% from two issuers: Fuzhou Digital Economy Investment Group and Emei Mountain Modern Agriculture Development Group [1] Secondary Market - The yield on Chinese offshore USD bonds rose across the board this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond composite index increasing by 0.33% to 240.93 [2] - The real estate USD bond index saw a significant increase of 1.94%, closing at 180.28, while the city investment bond index rose by 0.14% to 148.05 [2] Price Movements - The largest weekly price increase in Chinese offshore bonds was for the MOLAND 8% 12/30/24 bond from Contemporary Land, which rose by 56% to 2.75 [3] - The largest weekly price drop was for the HONGSL 5% 8/19/29 bond from Hongyang Group, which fell by 125.84% to 6.72 [5] Benchmark Spread - The spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the US narrowed to 265.35 basis points, a decrease of 3.21 basis points from the previous week [6] Rating Changes - Moody's maintained the "A3" issuer ratings for China Railway Group and China Railway Construction, changing the outlook from "stable" to "negative" on April 24 [9] - Moody's also maintained the "Baal" issuer rating for China Communications Construction Group, adjusting the outlook to "negative" on April 25 [9] Defaults and Extensions - Xinyuan (China) Real Estate's bond "H20 Xinyuan 1" received approval for a 2-year extension, with the new maturity date set for November 13, 2027 [10] - Sunshine City Group failed to make timely payments on its 2020 first phase medium-term notes, with the company unable to raise sufficient funds by the accelerated maturity date [11] Market News - The issuance of the 2025 ultra-long special treasury bonds began on April 24, with a total planned issuance of 1.3 trillion RMB [12] - The first data center holding-type real estate ABS in the country was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, raising a total of 1.6092 billion RMB [13] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 600 billion RMB MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [14] Overseas News - Some Federal Reserve officials hinted at the possibility of earlier interest rate cuts if economic conditions worsen [15] - Demand for US Treasury bonds from overseas reached a new low, with indirect bidders accounting for only 56.2% of the latest auction [16] Offshore Bond Alerts - Zhengrong Real Estate's proposal to extend the "H20 Zhengrong 2" bond was not approved, leading to a failure to repay interest [17] - Futong Group plans to pay interest on "H21 Futong 1" by April 28, 2025 [18] - The proposal for delisting 18 company bonds from AVIC Industrial was not approved, and the bonds will resume trading [19] - Aoyuan Group announced that three bonds, including "H20 Aoyuan 1," will be suspended from trading starting April 28 [20]

2025年超长期特别国债今起发行 今天，2025年超长期特别国债和中央金融机构注资特别国债开启发行。其中： 2025年超长期特别国债： 20年期500亿元 ，中标利率为1.98%； 30年期710亿元 ，中标利率为1.88%。 2025年中央金融机构注资特别国债： 5年期1650亿元 ，加权中标利率1.45%。 2025年中央金融机构注资特别国债今天发行 按照财政部有关安排，2025年中央金融机构注资特别国债今天启动发行， 发行金额为1650亿元， 发行期限为5年期，从4月25日开始计息，每年支付利 息， 本期国债将在4月29日起上市交易。 记者从财政部了解到，2025年超长期特别国债今天（24日）首次发行， 其中20年期500亿元，30年期710亿元 。根据安排，此次发行将通过财政部政府债 券发行系统进行招标发行， 两种期限的国债将在4月29日起上市交易。 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 根据预算安排，我国今年拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，较2024年增加3000亿元。其中，8000亿元用于更大力度支持"两重"项目建设，5000亿元用于 加力扩围实施"两新"政策。今年，支持消费品以旧 ...

"今年超长期特别国债提前发行，既是2024年政策的延续，也体现了更加积极的财政政策'靠前发 力'。"陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司投资顾问总监郭一鸣也告诉记者，今年的超长期特别国债提前发 行能够为全年经济增长目标达成提供有力支持，使财政资金更早投入到"两重""两新"项目中，加速释放 国内投资和消费需求。 数据显示，4月24日发行的20年期、30年期超长期特别国债中标利率分别为1.98%、1.88%，全场倍数分 别为3.11、3.66，边际倍数分别为8.42、3.43。 今年的《政府工作报告》提出，拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元、比上年增加3000亿元。记者注意 到，今年超长期特别国债不仅发行规模更大，而且从发行节奏看，去年的超长期特别国债于2024年5月 17日首发，今年的首发时间也提前了近一个月。 此外，今年将发行的1.3万亿元超长期特别国债，其中8000亿元用于更大力度支持"两重"项目；5000亿 元用于加力扩围实施"两新"政策，其中3000亿元支持消费品以旧换新，比上年增加1500亿元，2000亿元 用于支持设备更新，比上年增加500亿元。 "今年超长期特别国债发行时间较去年提前近一个月，体现了财政政策 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of 2025 ultra-long special government bonds has commenced, with a 20-year term of 50 billion yuan at a winning interest rate of 1.98% and a 30-year term of 71 billion yuan at a winning interest rate of 1.88% [1][4] - The 2025 central financial institution capital injection special government bonds have been issued with a 5-year term of 165 billion yuan and a weighted winning interest rate of 1.45% [2][3] - The total planned issuance of ultra-long special government bonds for this year is 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to 2024, with specific allocations for supporting "two heavy" project constructions and "two new" policy implementations [4] Group 2 - Ultra-long special government bonds are defined by three key terms: ultra-long, special, and government bonds, which are typically bonds with a maturity of over 10 years [5] - The term "special" indicates that the funds raised are designated for specific purposes, requiring dedicated use [5] - Government bonds are issued by the state to raise fiscal funds and are considered the safest investment tool due to their highest credit rating [5]

中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞分析，根据测算，参考去年"两重""两新"的政策效果，今年1.3万亿元的 超长期特别国债或拉动GDP增长1.7至1.9个百分点。（上证报） ...