Economic Overview - Economic indicators have shown a decline in October due to external uncertainties, reduced working days, and elevated year-on-year bases, but the economy remains above target levels, leading to a moderate policy support stance [1][2] - The export growth rate in October dropped significantly to -1.1% from 8.3% in the previous month, with industrial export delivery value declining by 2.1% year-on-year [1][2] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed by 1.3 percentage points to 2.7% from January to October [1] Demand Side Analysis - Consumer demand showed resilience, with retail sales growing by 2.9% year-on-year in October, slightly better than market expectations [1] - Restaurant revenue increased by 3.8% year-on-year in October, up 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, while durable goods consumption growth slowed [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth decreased by 1.2 percentage points to -1.7% from January to October, with infrastructure investment also slowing to -0.1% [2] - Real estate development investment saw a larger decline of 0.8 percentage points to -14.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [2] Supply Side Analysis - Industrial value-added growth fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% in October, while the service production index decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 4.6% [2] - Despite the decline, cumulative growth rates for industrial and service sectors remain above last year's figures [2] Policy Response - Current policies are characterized by moderate implementation, with limited likelihood of significant increases in policy measures this year [3] - The central bank emphasizes providing ample liquidity for the real economy while balancing short-term growth stabilization and long-term structural adjustments [3] Fiscal Measures - Recent fiscal policies include the allocation of 500 billion yuan to local governments to enhance financial capacity, with specific funds directed towards investment projects [3] - The Ministry of Finance has outlined six key areas for future fiscal policy, including boosting consumption and supporting local government bonds [3] Private Investment Initiatives - The State Council has introduced measures to promote private investment, focusing on easing market access and supporting private projects in emerging sectors [4] - These initiatives aim to optimize investment structures and enhance the flow of private capital into new productive areas [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving high-quality development and achieving Chinese-style modernization, as outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan proposed by the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - The fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with adjustments made according to changing circumstances, including an increase in the deficit ratio from 2.7% to 3.8%, and further to 4% this year [1][2]. - New local government special bond quotas amounting to 19.4 trillion yuan have been arranged, alongside over 1 trillion yuan in new tax reductions and deferred payments, expanding fiscal policy space [1][2]. Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - The total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, a 24% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan, with over 70% of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods, totaling nearly 10 trillion yuan in social welfare investments [2][3]. - The ability to respond to risks and challenges has strengthened, providing a more solid foundation for safe development [2]. Strategic Focus for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan is seen as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, with a focus on adapting to complex domestic and international changes, including rising unilateralism and protectionism [3][4]. - The fiscal department aims to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and macroeconomic regulation to better support high-quality development [3][4]. Key Areas of Fiscal Policy Action - The fiscal policy will focus on three main areas to support domestic market construction: boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and promoting a unified market [5][6]. - Specific measures include using fiscal subsidies and tax adjustments to enhance consumer spending, optimizing government investment towards strategic projects, and improving the fiscal system to eliminate market fragmentation [5][6]. Fiscal Reform and Management - The establishment of a high-level socialist market economy requires a balance between market freedom and effective regulation, with fiscal funds directed towards public goods and areas with high social returns [6]. - The focus will be on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing tax systems, and ensuring a sustainable fiscal environment while promoting both development and safety [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in achieving high-quality development and modernizing China's economy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, as outlined by the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Considerations - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for solidifying the foundation of socialist modernization, with complex changes in the development environment both domestically and internationally [2]. - The external environment is characterized by instability, intensified great power competition, and rising unilateralism and protectionism, while the domestic economy remains resilient with strong fundamentals and potential [2]. - Fiscal policy must adapt to these changes, enhancing its effectiveness and macro-control capabilities to better support high-quality development [2]. Group 2: Key Strategies for Fiscal Policy - The government will ensure sufficient fiscal strength by maintaining a proactive stance, adjusting deficit rates and debt levels according to changing circumstances, and utilizing various fiscal tools to sustain economic support [2][3]. - Fiscal resources will be allocated precisely to high-quality development areas, including modern industrial systems, technology, education, social security, agriculture, and environmental protection, ensuring effective use of funds [3]. - A coordinated approach will be adopted in fiscal policy design, aligning it with monetary, industrial, and regional policies to create a synergistic effect that promotes high-quality development [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving high-quality development and modernizing China's economy, as outlined in the 20th Central Committee's proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - Fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the deficit rate increasing from 2.7% to 4% and the issuance of new local government special bonds amounting to 19.4 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 24% increase compared to the previous plan, with over 70% of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Focus for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on enhancing fiscal policy effectiveness in response to complex domestic and international challenges, including geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. - Key strategies include ensuring sufficient fiscal strength, precise targeting of investments in high-quality development areas, and promoting policy coordination across various sectors [5][6]. Group 3: Domestic Market Development - The construction of a strong domestic market is identified as a strategic priority, with fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption, increasing effective investment, and advancing the establishment of a unified market [6][7]. - Specific actions include leveraging fiscal subsidies and tax adjustments to enhance consumer spending and optimizing government investments to support strategic projects [6][7]. Group 4: Fiscal Reform and Management - The establishment of a high-level socialist market economy requires a balance between effective market mechanisms and appropriate fiscal regulation, focusing on public goods and minimizing direct government intervention [8][9]. - The emphasis will be on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing fiscal management, and ensuring a sustainable fiscal framework that aligns with high-quality development goals [9].

Economic Analysis - The report highlights a renewed focus on "expanding domestic demand," marking the first increase in emphasis for the year, indicating a shift from previous reports that concentrated on supply-side issues[2] - It notes that the overall economic performance is expected to improve, with a reduction in the difficulty of achieving annual economic targets due to easing US-China relations and signs of price stabilization[1] - The report identifies a significant change in policy direction, emphasizing the need for a dual-pillar regulatory framework to maintain financial market stability and prevent moral hazards[3] Policy Direction - The report suggests a high probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut to alleviate bank liquidity constraints, with a focus on maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions[3] - It emphasizes the importance of consumer finance, proposing measures to restore personal credit limits and reduce consumer finance interest rates, with current average loan rates dropping below 24%[14] - The adjustment in the approach to RMB internationalization indicates a shift from "cautious advancement" to "promotion," suggesting an increase in available RMB assets for foreign investors[15] Market Signals - The report indicates that the central bank expects a downward trend in social financing and M2 growth rates, suggesting that demand-driven interest rates are more likely to decrease than increase[20] - It highlights the limited upward space for interest rates, as the central bank aims to maintain reasonable interest rate relationships amidst a backdrop of low credit demand and stable deposit needs[22] - The overall expectation of a "double reduction" in monetary policy remains, with potential policy surprises being a trigger for market movements towards the end of the year[25]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The current internal and external environment is increasingly complex and severe, necessitating counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. The report aligns with the Fourth Plenary Session's assessment of the economic situation, highlighting the impact of trade issues on global economic growth and the need for a consumption-driven economic model in China [4][5]. - The report indicates improvements in price operations, with both CPI and PPI showing year-on-year increases in October. It emphasizes the need for coordinated macro policies to promote reasonable price recovery, including advancing the construction of a unified national market and boosting consumption [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The report outlines changes in the monetary policy framework, emphasizing the construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system. This indicates a future focus on systematic development in monetary policy [5][6]. - The importance of stabilizing growth has been elevated, with monetary policy expected to remain "moderately loose," including potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions as necessary. The report suggests that the broad fiscal or social financing will be a major support in 2026, with a need for lower financing costs for residents and enterprises [6][7]. Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - Banks are accelerating the disposal of non-performing assets, particularly real estate, due to multiple considerations including capital consumption and market risks. This strategy aims to alleviate capital pressure and supplement profits amid rising retail risks [11][12]. - The report highlights significant disparities in the scale and impairment provisions of non-performing assets among listed banks, with state-owned banks accelerating asset disposals to release capital and enhance profitability [12][13]. Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - The pig farming sector is entering a destocking cycle driven by policy and market factors, with a recommendation to actively invest in leading companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods due to the sector's defensive attributes amid low prices [17][18]. - The beef cattle sector is experiencing a favorable demand cycle, with expectations of continued profitability improvements through 2027. The report suggests investing in companies within the beef cattle industry chain [18]. Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The report discusses the promising results of DR10624 for treating severe hypertriglyceridemia, showing significant reductions in triglyceride levels and liver fat. The company maintains a "buy" rating based on projected net profits for 2025-2027 [30][31]. - The competitive landscape in the pharmaceutical sector is intensifying, with multiple multinational corporations targeting the FGF21 pathway, indicating a potential for differentiated market positioning for the company [31].

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank maintains a stance of "appropriate monetary easing" and emphasizes the need for consistency in macro policies[1] - The report highlights the importance of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy[5] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in September was 3.24%, down 0.05 percentage points from June, with corporate loans at 3.14% and personal housing loans unchanged at 3.06%[6] Global Economic Concerns - The central bank expresses ongoing concerns about global economic growth, citing insufficient momentum and the impact of tariff policies on certain economies[2] - Geopolitical conflicts are identified as potential risks to economic and financial stability[2] - The report indicates a decrease in concerns regarding global inflation, with a noted divergence in inflation trends among major economies[4] Domestic Economic Outlook - The central bank is optimistic about domestic economic performance, citing strong production supply, released consumption potential, and proactive macro policies as key support factors[3] - The report stresses the need for a development model driven by domestic demand and consumption[3] - The central bank acknowledges the complex and uncertain environment for domestic development, urging confidence and strategic focus[3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract rebounded with a decrease in positions. The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report emphasized strengthening the consistency of macro - policy orientation and conducting counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The weekly output of rebar decreased and remained at a low level, with Xinjiang expected to reduce construction steel output by about 2 million tons during the winter shutdown period, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total construction steel output in Xinjiang in 2025. Terminal demand declined, but inventories have been falling for four consecutive weeks. Overall, the macro - environment shows positive signals, and there is an expectation of further contraction in construction steel output, causing steel prices to fluctuate within a range. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that the centers of DIFF and DEA are moving up. The recommended operation is to go long on dips and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the position volume was 1,868,036 hands, down 55,665 hands. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 80,255 hands, up 14,373 hands; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts was - 58 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 117,093 tons, down 5,119 tons; the spread between HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 217 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,313 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the RB main contract was 192 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 148.9481 million tons, up 3.5557 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 361,500 tons, down 12,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2656 million tons, down 23,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.2 million tons, up 4,300 tons. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, up 1.42 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.79%, down 0.80 percentage points. - The output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0854 million tons, down 40,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.72%, down 0.88 percentage points. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.6684 million tons, down 48,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.257 million tons, down 51,100 tons. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. - China's monthly rebar output was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 0.50%, down 1.00 percentage points. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 13.90%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, down 0.90 percentage points. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters. - The area of unsold commercial housing was 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Starting from 18:00 on November 12, 2025, Handan will launch a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which is expected to be lifted around November 16. - Last week, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.2796 million square meters, down 26.6% month - on - month and 38.3% year - on - year; the total transaction area of second - hand housing (contract signing) was 2.0211 million square meters, down 4.8% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 12, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5762, down 0.41%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5580, down 20 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks. [2] - On November 12, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5490, down 0.83%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5240, down 30 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,762.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,490.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00. [2] - The SM futures contract position was 582,481.00 lots, up 2096.00; the SF futures contract position was 379,354.00 lots, up 20468.00. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 46,046.00 lots, up 3175.00; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 25,289.00 lots, up 4776.00. [2] - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 56.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 26.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00. [2] - The SM warehouse receipt was 18,263.00; the SF warehouse receipt was - 20.00. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,580.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00; the price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,300.00 yuan/ton, up 144.00. [2] - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5580.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,240.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00. [2] - The manganese - silicon index average was 5595.00 yuan/ton, down 51.00; the SF main contract basis was - 250.00 yuan/ton, down 32.00. [2] - The SM main contract basis was - 182.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port was 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 439.70 million tons, up 8.30. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 40.24%, down 2.75; the ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 36.26%, up 0.18. [2] - The manganese - silicon supply was 201,880.00 tons, down 5845.00; the ferrosilicon supply was 114,100.00 tons, up 900.00. [2] - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 319,500.00 tons, up 5000.00; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 78,690.00 tons, up 6700.00. [2] - The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 15.70 days, down 0.23; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 15.67 days, up 0.15. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 121113.00 tons, down 3379.00; the demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19813.70 tons, down 461.60. [2] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, up 1.42; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.79%, down 0.80. [2] - The crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84. [2] 3.6 Industry News - Xinjiang steel mills' winter maintenance and production cuts are advancing. It is estimated that during the winter shutdown and production cut period, Xinjiang will reduce the production of construction steel by about 2 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total production of construction steel in Xinjiang in 2025. [2] - The central bank pointed out in the Third - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report that it will strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation, conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, study and implement policies to support individuals in repairing their credit, promote the internationalization of the RMB, and improve the level of capital account opening. [2] - The current RMB loan balance in China has reached 27 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing has reached 43.7 trillion yuan. As the base increases, the growth rate of financial aggregates will decline in the future, which is in line with China's economic transformation from high - speed growth to high - quality development. The central bank will continue to optimize intermediate variables of monetary policy and gradually淡化 its focus on quantitative targets. [2] - The central bank will conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments according to changes in the economic and financial situation, and closely monitor changes in the monetary policies of major overseas central banks, and strengthen the analysis and monitoring of the supply and demand of bank system liquidity and changes in the financial market. [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For manganese - silicon, on November 12, the contract price decreased, the spot price decreased, the inventory rebounded rapidly, the output continued to decline slightly from a high level, the inventory increased for 6 consecutive weeks, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 83,000 tons, and the demand for hot metal decreased seasonally. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 190 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 280 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement price in October was 5820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month. [2] - For ferrosilicon, on November 12, the contract price decreased, the spot price decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory rebounded significantly this period. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 390 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 580 yuan/ton. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices showed a narrow - range overnight oscillation, with domestic spot refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The weak ADP employment data in the US boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market was still cautious, and copper might be short - term optimistic but overall in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas financial market performance and domestic inventory [1]. - Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed an oscillatingly stronger trend overnight. Alumina factory profits were continuously compressed, with sporadic production cuts in loss - making capacities. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, with a short - term high - level adjustment rhythm. Attention should be paid to the potential for the market to recover during the mid - month northern heating season production restrictions [1][2]. - Nickel prices declined overnight. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and overseas copper prices oscillated narrowly. The US ADP employment data in October showed a decrease of 45,000 in private - sector employment, the largest decline in two and a half years. This boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the central bank emphasized policy balance. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons, Comex inventory increased by 3,925 tons to 341,677 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 10,135 tons. Downstream demand was restricted by high - price concerns. LME was soliciting opinions on new permanent rules. Short - term copper might be optimistic, but overall it would likely oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended oscillatingly stronger. AO2601 closed at 2,826 yuan/ton with a 0.01% increase, AL2512 closed at 21,740 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and AD2512 closed at 21,135 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Alumina factory profits were compressed, with sporadic production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, and the short - term would continue the high - level adjustment rhythm. Aluminum alloy followed the adjustment, and attention should be paid to the long - AD space after the spread narrowed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.5% to $15,025 per ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.25% to 119,150 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,715 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan from the previous day. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 136,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2,663 tons to 337,749 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 29.2 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 574 tons to 23,769 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 2,583 tons to 38,582 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 11, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the Nanhai price was 21,490 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 547,225 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 62.7 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 3.2 million tons to 16.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 11, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 253,404 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 436 tons to 37,187 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 0.5%. The LmeS3 price was $2,505.5 per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price increased, and the inventory at SHFE increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 287,410 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540 per ton, down 2.1%. The spot price increased, and the SHFE inventory increased by 73 tons to 5,992 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premiums from 2019 - 2025 were presented, showing the historical trends of these premiums [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin SHFE near - far month spreads from 2020 - 2025 were provided, demonstrating the historical trends of these spreads [16][19][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were shown, indicating the historical inventory trends [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were displayed, presenting the historical inventory trends [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel social inventories were presented, with time - span data from 2019 - 2025 for some and 2020 - 2025 for others, showing the historical social - inventory trends [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate were provided, with data from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of these smelting - related indicators [44][46][48]. 4. Introduction of the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and a top industrial - futures analyst in the futures and securities fields. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [51]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He provides timely market and policy interpretations and has written many in - depth reports [51]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and provides timely market and policy interpretations [52].