Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues its upward trend, with the Dow Jones potentially reaching new highs, although synchronized increases across major indices could signal a clearer reversal [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are experiencing relatively moderate gains, while the Dow Jones and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index show signs of acceleration [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been consolidating in the 5500-5800 point range for over a month, indicating significant resistance [1] - Recent breakthroughs in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lack sufficient volume, raising concerns about a potential "false breakout" leading to a genuine pullback that could negatively impact tech stocks [1] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The decline in oil prices may be masking underlying inflation pressures, as energy constitutes a significant portion of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - Core CPI, excluding energy factors, has shown a slight increase, although market expectations for interest rate cuts have overshadowed inflation concerns [1] Group 3: Tariff Implications - Tariff issues have seemingly faded from market focus, but new tariffs that took effect on August 1 are expected to have a gradual impact over the next 3-6 months [1] - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data release is anticipated to be significant for market analysis [1]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose significantly in July, exceeding market expectations and indicating renewed inflationary pressures in the upstream industrial chain [1] - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in July, a substantial rise compared to June's zero growth and the market forecast of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI rose by 3.3% in July, up from 2.3% in June and surpassing the expected 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [1] Industry Analysis - Over three-quarters of the PPI increase in July can be attributed to the service sector, which saw a month-on-month price index increase of 1.1%, the largest since March 2022 [1] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, significantly higher than June's zero growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, up from 2.6% in the previous month [1] Market Reaction - Following the release of the PPI data, U.S. stock markets weakened, while the dollar and long-term U.S. Treasury yields increased [1] - Analysts suggest that the data indicates rising cost pressures for U.S. businesses, which may lead to further cost pass-through to downstream consumers, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts [1]

星展银行：日本二季度经济增长温和，出口与消费仍显疲软 瑞士宝盛：需求放缓抑制美国通胀压力，为美联储降息提供空间 德意志银行：欧元计价信用利差压缩至年内最窄区间 贝莱德：市场加大押注美联储9月降息50基点 【机构分析】 星展银行分析指出，经过季节性调整后，日本第二季度的年化增长率预计仅温和上升0.2%，这一增长 幅度大致能够弥补第一季度经济收缩带来的影响。对于日本经济现状，由于对美出口下降和全球需求疲 软，第二季度出口增长势头减弱。同时，国内私人消费依旧低迷，主要原因是工资增长速度未能跟上通 胀步伐。日本央行短期内不太可能采取加息措施。尽管与美国的贸易协议有助于缓解关税不确定性，但 央行期待更强劲的工资增长和稳定的通胀水平以实现政策正常化。 野村证券策略师指出，美国7月CPI数据公布后，市场情绪明显缓和，乐观情绪有效传导至日本股市， 推动日经225指数进一步走高。美联储降息预期的升温是本轮上涨的重要驱动。 瑞士宝盛经济学家指出，美国通胀压力正受到需求放缓的有效抑制。尽管在服装、电子产品等领域已观 察到关税对价格的推动作用，但作为通胀最大构成部分的住房成本在6月份仅温和上涨，使得整体通胀 动能保持稳定。考虑到8月 ...

太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）经济学家Tiffany Wilding表示，与关税相关的压力包含在CPI报告的某 些领域，这主要集中在商品领域，传导过程较慢，除此之外，通胀压力看起来非常可控。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

美国7月CPI数据显示通胀压力仍相对温和，市场担忧的关税推动通胀急剧上升的情况尚未出现。总体CPI环比上涨0.2%，符合市场预期，同比涨幅为 2.7%，低于预期的2.8%。核心通胀率升至2月来最高水平，主要受服务业价格上涨推动。 市场认为，尽管核心通胀略有反弹，但7月CPI数据整体温和，消除了美联储降息的一大障碍。交易员大幅提高了对美联储9月降息的预期，目前概率高 达95%。 8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示： 核心CPI方面，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份环比上涨0.3%，符合预期；但同比涨幅达到3.1%，高于预期的3.0%，创下 自2月份以来的新高。 报告显示，医疗服务、机票、娱乐、家庭用品以及二手车和卡车等分项指数在7月有所上涨，而酒店住宿和通讯等少数分项指数则有所下降。 服务业价格全面上涨，机票价格出现三年来最大涨幅 燃料油和交通运输成本涨幅最大，但汽油和家庭食品成本环比有所下降。 | | | | | Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month | | | | Un- adjusted | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）经济学家Tiffany Wilding表示，与关税相关的压力包含在CPI报告的某 些领域，这主要集中在商品领域，传导过程较慢，除此之外，通胀压力看起来非常可控。所以Wilding 认为，对美联储来说，这是一个非常好的信号。 ...

当地时间周一，投资者更多关注美国经济增长放缓以及关税政策带来的负面影响，同时也在等候将于当地时间本周二公布 的美国7月消费者价格指数(CPI)数据，市场交投较为谨慎，美国三大股指当天集体收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.45%，标普 500指数跌0.25%，纳指跌0.30%。美国银行的一份最新行业调查显示，约91%的受访基金经理认为美股估值已经过高，这 一比例创下2001年以来新高。 11日国际金价显著下跌 跌幅近2.5% 国际金价方面，美国总统特朗普周一在社交媒体上发文称，"黄金不会被征收关税"，令投资者担忧情绪降温。同时，市场 普遍预计美国关税政策引发的物价上涨，将推动美国7月CPI数据进一步反弹，通胀压力加剧或影响美联储降息路径，以 上因素导致国际金价周一大跌近2.5%，创下近3个月来最大单日跌幅。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎 司3404.7美元，跌幅约为2.48%。 欧洲方面，德国德意志银行最新发布的研报显示，有17%的欧洲上市企业在近期发布的财报中都下调了业绩指引，以化工 和汽车制造等行业企业为主。下调原因包括受美国关税政策冲击和美元贬值预期等。欧洲三大股指周一涨跌不一。截至收 盘，英国股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the US dollar index and the implications of recent employment data on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, highlighting a strong market expectation for a rate cut in September. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is currently priced at 98.49, with a slight decline of 0.01% from an opening price of 98.51 [1] - There is a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September due to weak employment data [1] - The ISM services price index is showing signs of increasing inflation pressure, which could challenge the prevailing view of an assured rate cut [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The recent rebound of the dollar index from a low of 96.3729 to a resistance level of 100.2599 indicates a potential false breakout [1] - The dollar index has moved upward within a short-term consolidation range of 98.00 to 99.00 but has not yet broken through the upper resistance of this range [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be crucial; if inflation data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess its rate cut predictions [1] - The nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board may further bolster the dovish sentiment in the market [1]

据新华网消息，近期美国再度调整对中国部分商品关税政策，中美关税博弈持续引发全球关注。自特朗普再次执政以来，对中国发起的关税战便成为国际经 济与政治领域焦点。如今局势突变，特朗普正面临极为棘手的局面。 美国有线电视新闻网评论称，在短短六个月内，特朗普 "重塑了全球贸易格局，颠覆了长达一个世纪的惯例"。一些企业主公开表示，若关税战持续，企业 将被迫裁员甚至倒闭，这将对美国就业市场造成沉重打击，普通民众也将深受其害。美国部分政客也对特朗普的关税政策提出批评，认为其可能导致美国经 济衰退，仅依靠加征关税这一简单粗暴的手段，无法实现美国的繁荣发展，反而可能使美国经济陷入困境。 从经济数据对比来看，特朗普的关税战并未达到预期效果。在关税战背景下，美国经济增长动能受到抑制。美国 6 月贸易逆差虽出现收窄，据美国人口普查 局与商务部经济分析局 8 月 5 日联合公布的数据，2025 年 6 月美国货物和服务贸易逆差为 602 亿美元，比修正后的 5 月 717 亿美元减少 115 亿美元，环比 下降 16%，但这主要是由于内需放缓导致消费品及原材料进口降至新冠疫情以来最低，并非关税政策的积极成效。 与此同时，美国国内通胀压力 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates a significant shift in the cost-sharing structure of tariffs in the U.S., with consumers expected to bear 67% of the costs by October, while businesses' share will drop to less than 10% [1][2][9] - This transition is anticipated to exert upward pressure on inflation, with the core PCE inflation rate projected to reach 3.2% by the end of the year [1][10] Cost Distribution Changes - As of June, U.S. businesses absorbed 64% of the tariff costs, while consumers and foreign exporters bore 22% and 14%, respectively [2][6] - The delay in cost transmission means that businesses initially absorbed the tariff impacts to maintain market share, but these costs will eventually be passed on to consumers through higher prices [2][7] Impact on Import Prices - The report notes a slight decrease in import prices post-tariff implementation, suggesting that foreign exporters are lowering their prices to absorb some of the tariff costs [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates that foreign exporters will bear 25% of the tariff costs by October, with a potential overall decrease in U.S. import prices of 3.7% by the end of 2025 due to a cumulative effective tariff rate increase of 14 percentage points [5] Inflationary Pressure - The analysis predicts that the majority of tariff costs will be transferred to U.S. consumers in the coming months, significantly impacting inflation [7] - By October, the share of tariff costs borne by consumers is expected to rise sharply from 22% to 67%, while the share for businesses will plummet from 64% to 8% [9] Specific Product Impact - The report highlights that companies heavily reliant on imported components may face greater cost pressures, while domestic producers protected from import competition may benefit from raising their prices [8]