Group 1 - The average weekly earnings in the UK for the first three months of 2025 increased by 5.6% compared to the same period last year, slightly below the forecasted growth of 5.7% [1] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring inflationary pressures in the UK labor market as it considers the possibility of accelerating interest rate cuts [1]

2025年前三个月英国工资水平增长5.6% 金十数据5月13日讯，英国国家统计局周二表示，与去年同期相比，2025年前三个月英国人的平均一周 薪资（不包括奖金）增长了5.6%。经济学家预计增幅为5.7%。英国央行正在密切关注英国劳动力市场 的通胀压力，同时考虑是否加快降息步伐。 ...

智通财经5月12日电，美联储理事库格勒表示，通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标。非住房市场服务的通胀 率在三月仍维持在3.4%，表明持续存在的通胀压力。 美联储理事库格勒：通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标 ...

美联储理事库格勒：通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标。非住房市场服务的通胀率在三月仍维持在3.4%， 表明持续存在的通胀压力。 ...

IPD劳动力市场资深经济学家James Cockett表示："雇主们的招聘计划直接反映了他们目前的信心水平较 低。" 新华财经北京5月12日电一项调查结果显示，在近期增税措施实施以及全球经济不确定性显著增加的背 景下，英国雇主对于未来三个月的招聘意向保持谨慎态度。这一趋势与英国央行对劳动力市场疲软状况 的预测相符，并进一步突显了当前经济环境给企业带来的挑战。 英国人力发展协会（CIPD）指出，最近一个季度对未来就业市场的预期指标从正13降至正8，触及除疫 情期间外的历史低位。特别是大型民营企业在本季度的表现尤为低迷，推动了整体指数的下滑。 与此同时，毕马威（KPMG）和英国招聘与就业联合会（REC）联合发布的另一项调查显示，尽管上个 月招聘单位的就业安排再次出现下降，但其降幅较3月份有所放缓。然而，总体人员需求萎缩的速度却 在加快。这两项调查结果共同印证了英国央行上周降息时所强调的劳动力市场降温现象，并显示出工资 增长强度可能成为通胀压力的一个潜在来源。 KPMG集团首席执行官Jon Holt评论道："尽管REC报告中提到招聘活动略有回暖，但这并不意味着市场 将迎来转机。求职者人数持续上升的事实表明，企业目前 ...

美联储理事Cook：预计特朗普政府的贸易政策和相关的不确定性将在短期内拖累生产率的增长，这可 能促使美联储在更长时间内维持政策利率不变。 由于生产率下降，潜在经济增速的下滑将带来更大的通胀压力。 在其他条件相同的情况下，较低的生产率可能会促使我支持在更长时间内将利率保持在较高水平。 由于企业不知道关税的最终水平或持续时间，贸易政策的不确定性可能会减少商业投资，从而影响生产 率。 如果保护主义贸易政策支持效率较低的公司，或者如果这些变化导致供应链中断，生产率也可能受到影 响。 人工智能可以在未来几年提高美国的生产率，潜在地抵消贸易政策的负面影响。 ...

智通财经5月10日电，美联储COOK表示，关税政策可能会降低生产率，限制潜在产出，增加通胀压 力。生产率较低的经济可能需要更高的利率来遏制通货膨胀。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the May 2025 meeting, the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. The meeting statement emphasized an increase in stagflation risks, and Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing the current economic activity is robust and the cost of waiting is low [3]. - The changes in the meeting statement are mainly in two aspects: an increase in the uncertainty of the economic outlook and a rise in the risks of both high unemployment and high inflation [3]. - Powell's wait - and - see stance is due to the Fed having cut interest rates by 100BP, with the current interest rate being only moderately restrictive, and the economy remaining in good condition [3]. - Future prospects are highly uncertain. Inflation pressure may appear earlier than the upward pressure on unemployment. In the short term, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, constraining the Fed's probability of easing, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low [3]. - In terms of strategies, for US Treasuries, the better - than - expected April non - farm payroll data led to a callback in market rate - cut expectations, and the US Treasury yield curve flattened bearishly. There is a good opportunity to enter the short - end US Treasuries, and a bullish view is maintained on the long - end in the short term. For the US dollar index, it is expected to oscillate overall this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation in the US may support its performance [3]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting - The Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the May 2025 meeting, and the meeting statement emphasized stagflation risks [3]. - The statement changes included increased economic outlook uncertainty and rising risks of high unemployment and high inflation [3]. Powell's Stance - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing there's no need to act in a hurry as the current monetary policy is only moderately restrictive and the economy is in good shape [3][4]. - He thought the cost of waiting is low, with the labor market stable, unemployment low, and no large - scale layoffs [3][4]. - He also mentioned that the relationship between expected survey data and consumer spending is weak [3][4]. Future Outlook - Inflation pressure may appear earlier than unemployment pressure. Considering corporate inventories, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, and the probability of a June rate cut is low [3]. Investment Strategies - For US Treasuries, there's a good entry opportunity for short - end bonds, and a bullish view is held on long - end bonds in the short term. If policy uncertainty decreases, it may improve long - end liquidity and term premium [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation may support it [3].

英国央行行长贝利：预计通胀压力将逐步缓解。 ...

英国央行：货币政策委员会考虑了国内通胀压力可能演变的多种情景，以及可能需要调整政策方向的各 种情况。 ...