油气和炼化及贸易板块 2024 和 2025Q1 综 述：油气板块仍将保持较高景气度，炼化 及贸易板块业绩承压期待改善 2025 年 6 月 19 日 看好/维持 石油石化 行业报告 分析师 莫文娟 电话：010-66555574 邮箱：mowj@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480524070001 投资摘要： 2024 年海外通胀有所减缓，国内经济有所修复，从而间接支撑大宗商品需求。2024 年以来，美国 CPI 同 比上涨幅度逐步下降，截至年底低于 3%。2025 年第一季度美国通胀压力继续减缓，始终维持在 3%以下， 2024 年国内制造业 PMI 为 49.78，2025 年 1 月至 4 月，国内制造业 PMI 分别为 49.1，50.2，50.5，49.0， 围绕荣枯线 50 上下波动，有助于缓解估值压力并稳定市场预期，从而间接支撑大宗商品（如原油）需求。 2024 年油价宽幅震荡，同比下降；2025 年一季度，Brent 现货均价环比上涨。2024 年 1-12 月，Brent 原油现货均价整体价格在 69.19-91.17 美元/桶宽幅震荡，全年来看油价中枢小幅下跌，月度均价为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index has shown a decline, with mixed results among constituent stocks, indicating a cautious market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in dividend-focused strategies [1][4]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of June 19, 2025, the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index decreased by 0.72% [1]. - The ETF associated with this index, the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300), has undergone adjustments [1]. - The ETF's recent trading volume was 1.22%, with a total transaction value of 66.48 million yuan [4]. Group 2: ETF Metrics - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF has a current scale of 5.462 billion yuan [4]. - Over the past five years, the ETF's net value has increased by 81.64%, ranking 35th out of 987 index equity funds, placing it in the top 3.55% [4]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 13.89% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being five months [4]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index account for 36.97% of the index, with significant players including China Shenhua, Gree Electric, and China Petroleum [4][6]. - The individual weightings of these stocks range from 2.89% to 4.53%, with China Shenhua having the highest weight at 4.53% [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Long-term capital inflows into the market are expected to continue, with public funds and insurance capital projected to reach approximately 4.2 trillion yuan in 2025 [6]. - Insurance funds, which prioritize certainty in returns, are likely to favor high-dividend stocks, providing upward momentum for the dividend sector in the second half of the year [6]. - The market is anticipated to experience higher volatility in the third quarter, making dividend stocks a suitable core allocation strategy [6][7].

值得注意的是，易方达基金旗下的恒生红利低波ETF（159545）、红利低波动ETF（563020）、红利价 值ETF（563700）三只产品均按季度进行分红评价、满足条件后可分红，三只产品的分红评价月份合计 覆盖全年各月，同时持有三只产品有机会每个月获得现金分红。此外，易方达中证港股通高股息投资指 数基金（A/C：023389/023390）每月进行分红评价，加入投资组合有助于进一步增加分红金额和稳定 性。 每经记者｜叶峰 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 港股早盘震荡调整，近期备受投资者关注的恒生港股通高股息低波动指数也跟随回调。据Wind数据统 计，截至6月18日，跟踪上述指数的恒生红利低波ETF（159545）已连续25个交易日获资金加仓，最新 规模突破20亿元，连续创下新高。 而除了港股外，A股的高股息配置机遇同样被市场所关注。跟踪中证红利低波动指数的红利低波动ETF （563020）最新规模约20亿元，较年初几乎翻倍。 有券商表示，在海内外投资者对中国资产关注上升、港股扩容带来趋势性增配环境下，市场大幅下行风 险相对可控。此外，长期资金入市在持续推进，公募基金和保险资金2025年入市规模有望达4.2万亿元 左右。由 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance and growth of the Robot ETF (562500), which has seen significant inflows and trading activity, indicating a robust market interest in robotics investments [1][2] - As of the latest data, the Robot ETF has a net inflow of 29.45 million yuan, with a total of 380 million yuan attracted over the past 10 trading days, leading among comparable funds [1] - The Robot ETF's current scale is 12.997 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.86 billion yuan year-to-date, which is the highest growth among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The mechanical industry is expected to see concentrated hotspots, with the sector ranking 6th in A-share performance in the first half of the year, and 40 out of the top 100 stocks being related to robotics [2] - The industry is facing weak domestic demand but is increasingly focusing on international markets, with hard technology expected to drive growth in the second half of the year, particularly in embodied intelligence and controllable nuclear fusion [2] - The Robot ETF is the only robot-themed ETF in the market with a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, covering various segments such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and service robots, providing investors with a comprehensive investment option in the robotics supply chain [2]

Group 1 - The recent geopolitical uncertainties have suppressed global risk appetite, leading to fluctuating market sentiment in the short term. Defensive assets, particularly Hong Kong dividend stocks, have become a focus for capital allocation [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) has seen continuous net inflows for 35 trading days since April 24, 2025, reaching new highs in both shares and scale. As of June 17, the total shares and scale were 1.479 billion and 2.419 billion CNY, respectively, with a single-day net inflow of 93 million CNY, marking a year-to-date high [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) offers a high dividend yield of 7.85%, significantly higher than mainstream A-share dividend indices, indicating a strong high-dividend advantage. The latest price-to-book ratio is only 0.65, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) is the first ETF to invest in the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index through the QDII model, providing a more favorable tax structure compared to traditional channels, which may enhance investor experience [1] - On May 23, 2025, the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513530) and its linked funds announced an adjustment to their income distribution principles, allowing for up to 12 distributions per year based on fund performance [2] - Huatai-PineBridge Fund has over 18 years of experience in index investment and has established a comprehensive "dividend family" in the dividend-themed ETF sector, managing over 40.2 billion CNY in dividend-themed ETFs as of June 17 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector, particularly the leading bank ETF (512820), is experiencing a strong performance driven by high dividend yields and low valuations, making it an attractive investment opportunity [5][10][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 17, the A-share market showed mixed trends, with the bank ETF (512820) experiencing a slight decline of 0.2% after reaching a historical high during the day [1]. - The bank ETF (512820) has attracted over 25 million yuan in capital inflow over the past three days, indicating strong investor interest in high-dividend sectors [1]. - The index of the bank ETF (512820) has seen a 15.33% increase over the past six months, outperforming the CSI 300 by 16.51% [5]. Group 2: Fundraising and Capital Injections - Recently, major banks like the Bank of Communications and Bank of China announced successful A-share stock issuances, raising 120 billion yuan and 165 billion yuan respectively, contributing to a total of 520 billion yuan in capital injections for the four major state-owned banks [5]. - This capital injection is expected to enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of state-owned banks, thereby improving their ability to support the real economy [5]. Group 3: Investment Appeal - The banking sector is characterized by high dividend yields and low valuations, making it more attractive compared to other industries [7][10]. - The current price-to-book ratio (PB) of the bank ETF (512820) is 0.68, indicating a significant undervaluation [12]. - The latest dividend yield for the bank ETF (512820) is 5.4%, which is competitive in the market [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is strong momentum for long-term capital inflows into the banking sector from insurance funds, state-owned enterprises, and public funds, which is expected to support the valuation of bank stocks [8][15]. - The banking sector's fundamentals remain robust, with stable operations and sustainable dividends, which are likely to strengthen its high dividend characteristics [9][15].

大金融配置机会展望 20250616 摘要 房地产市场数据走弱，房价低于去年 9 月水平，止跌回稳政策面临压力， 政策边际宽松必要性提高，国常会或将更大力度推动市场稳定。 短期内房地产政策放松力度预计有限，宏观层面压力不显著，5 月销售 面积同比小幅下降，新房备案基本持平，7 月或有宽松措施，但预期不 宜过高。 地产股跌至较低位置，可逢低配置，关注库存压力低、减值充分、区域 布局好且产品端有优势的公司，如滨江、建发和绿城，以及稳定现金流 或潜在高股息标的，如华润置地。 商业地产公司如华润置地 PB 为 0.6 倍左右，本质是高股息逻辑，开发 业务拖累小，周转效率高，值得战略性配置。物业公司如贝壳及龙头央 国企物管公司受益于二手市场成交量稳定，具长线配置价值。 市场对公司自由现金流和账面现金估值不足，未来资产交易扩散将受重 视。政策有必要进一步宽松以维持市场稳定，但短期政策宽松的紧迫性 和力度保持中性判断。 Q&A 如何看待当前房地产市场的基本面情况及政策边际宽松的必要性？ 当前房地产市场的基本面情况显示出明显的恶化迹象。统计数据显示，房价环 比跌幅在显著扩大，尤其是从 4 月份开始，预计 6 月份单月跌幅可能 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun's team has released a series of reports indicating that the mid-term investment value of Chinese private enterprises has improved due to macroeconomic, policy, and micro factors [1] - The research team has identified the "Top Ten Private Enterprises" in China, which includes Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Ctrip, and Anta, similar to the "Big Seven" in the US stock market [1] - Goldman Sachs expects these "Top Ten Private Enterprises" to expand their dominance in the Chinese stock market, with all stocks rated as "Buy" by analysts [1] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the "Top Ten Private Enterprises" is estimated at $1.6 trillion, accounting for 42% of the MSCI China Index weight, with an average daily trading volume of $11 billion [1] - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share (EPS) over the next two years is 13%, indicating high market influence and investment appeal [1] - These enterprises demonstrate significant advantages in market capitalization, trading volume, profit growth potential, and valuation, making them worthy of investor attention [1] Group 3 - In the equity market, there are 5,121 listed private enterprises, with 3,771 listed on the A-share market and 1,350 on offshore markets, totaling a market capitalization of $9 trillion, which is 71% of the total MSCI China Index market capitalization [2] - The earnings weight of these private enterprises accounts for 31% of the index [2]

2025 年 06 月 16 日 硫酸、硫磺等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替代、纯 内需、高股息等方向 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 0.7 -0.8 9.3 沪深 300 -0.6 -3.6 9.1 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：天然气、 盐酸等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替 代、纯内需、高股息等方向》2025- 06-09 2、《基础化工行业周报：磷矿石、 草甘膦等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-06-03 3、《基础化工行业周报：丁二烯、 煤焦油等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-05-26 · 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 ▌硫酸、硫磺等涨幅居前，氯化铵、尿素等跌幅较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：硫酸（CFR 西欧/北 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 重视建筑板块港股与 A 股高股息的投资机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 继续看好建筑板块高股息投资机会：1）建筑央企：资质齐全，经营稳健受益稳增长，高股息 首选中国建筑；2）地方国企：聚焦政策发展趋势和方向，四川省战略腹地建设，首选四川路 桥；3）国际工程：重视"一带一路"投资机遇，标的包括中钢国际&中材国际；4）优质民 企：筛选经营基本面稳健，分红率提升标的，首选江河集团。 分析师及联系人 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 重视建筑板块港股与 A 股高股息的投资机会 [Table_Summary2] 建筑港股保持强势，高股息+稳增长受到市场青睐 近期建筑港股高股息标的表现较好，5 月以来中国交通建设（1800 ...