最近，国际现货黄金价格"跌跌不休"。 中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢认为， 目前国际黄金价格处于3500美元遇阻承压回落调整阶段，长 期上涨趋势并未改变 ，预计年内突破3500美元概率较高。值得一提的是，中国、越南、印度等新兴市 场国家官方增持黄金也是金价维稳的关键。 欧洲中央银行近日发布的报告指出， 黄金供给的变化是未来金价走势的重要变量 。以往经验表明，黄 金供给曾对需求上升做出弹性反应，未来官方部门的黄金储备需求若进一步上升，可能会带动全球黄金 供给进一步增加。 国内各品牌金饰价格也随之波动， 金饰克价4天跌15元~19元不等 。其中，周生生足金饰品价格呈现出 5天4跌态势。6月15日-20日周生生足金饰品克单价分别为1038元、1037元、1024元、1023元、1023元、 1020元，6月20日较15日每克下跌18元。 此外，老庙黄金为1012元/克，较16日下跌19元/克；周大福为1020元/克，较16日下跌15元/克；老凤祥 为1018元/克，较16日下跌17元/克。 | EASIX | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 避险抗通胀,长期配黄金 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 18, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 790.5, down 0.57%, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 701 on the spot side. The supply on the raw material side shows signs of marginal improvement, and the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate has declined for 5 consecutive weeks. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 18, the closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1375.0, up 0.62%, and the third round of coke price cuts was implemented on the spot side. In May, China's crude steel output was 8655000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply on the raw material side shows signs of marginal improvement, and the molten iron output has declined from a high level. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1375.0 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan. The JM futures contract positions were 700071.00 lots, down 6625.00 lots; the J futures contract positions were 56080.00 lots, up 839.00 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 coking coal contracts were - 47200.00 lots, down 11166.00 lots; the net positions of the top 20 coke contracts were - 1525.00 lots, down 962.00 lots. The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 25.00 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 28.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 90.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu was 701.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 110.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 6.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM main contract basis was 189.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the J main contract basis was 70.00 yuan/ton, down 9.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 336.13 million tons, up 8.72 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 251.47 million tons, up 6.41 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 57.36%, down 3.23 percentage points; the raw coal output was 40328.00 million tons, up 1397.40 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 187.80, down 2.10. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 544.73 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 258.69 million tons, down 8.16 million tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 798.07 million tons, down 20.85 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 125.71 million tons, down 1.30 million tons. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons, up 3.07 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.84 million tons, down 2.96 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample were 12.32 days, up 0.06 days; the available days of coke of 247 steel mills were 11.62 days, up 0.04 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons. The output of coking coal was 3926.16 million tons, down 235.31 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, down 1.40 percentage points [2]. - The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 27.00 yuan/ton; the output of coke was 4238.00 million tons, up 78.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points. The crude steel output was 8655.00 million tons, up 53.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On June 17, Li Zhen, a member of the Party Committee and Deputy Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, stated at the second special promotion meeting of the 2025 Deepening and Upgrading Action of State - owned Enterprise Reform that state - owned assets and enterprises should pay attention to planning guidance, systematically connect with the national key industrial development strategy, and scientifically formulate the "15th Five - Year Plan" for state - owned assets and enterprises [2]. - After Israel's sudden attack on Iran, some shipowners began to actively avoid the Strait of Hormuz, and freight rates soared by 24% [2]. - The European Commission proposed a legislative proposal that the EU will gradually phase out the direct or indirect import of pipeline natural gas (PNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia by the end of 2027 and completely stop importing Russian oil [2].

Group 1 - The latest international gold price is reported at $3,384.33 per ounce, with a slight decline of -0.08% [1] - COMEX gold is priced at $3,401.4 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.16% [1] - The gold ETF (159937) has seen a minor increase of 0.04%, with a trading volume of 206 million yuan [1] Group 2 - According to the World Gold Council, nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year, indicating a growing interest in gold [3] - Over 95% of surveyed central banks believe that global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, marking the highest level since the survey began in 2019 [3] - The proportion of central banks actively managing gold reserves has risen from 37% in 2024 to 44% in 2025, primarily driven by the need to enhance returns and manage risks [4] Group 3 - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is anticipated to maintain current rates, with market focus on policy statements and Powell's press conference [5] - If signals for a potential rate cut in September are confirmed, it may suppress the dollar and support an increase in gold prices [5] - The ongoing global geopolitical tensions and the trend of "de-dollarization" are encouraging central banks to increase their gold holdings [5] Group 4 - The gold ETF (159937) aligns closely with domestic gold prices and offers low entry barriers, low costs, and diverse trading options, supporting T+0 trading [5] - Long-term, gold's value is expected to rise with the scale of credit money, and it serves as a hedge against tail risks in asset portfolios [5] - Gold assets have historically performed well during both overheated and recessionary economic cycles, suggesting a potential for regular investment in gold ETFs [5]

Domestic - Jiangsu Province is experiencing a surge in sales of cultural and creative products as well as sports goods, attributed to the popularity of "Su Super" [3] - The Chinese government is supporting 60 counties to enhance rural water supply capabilities, with three projects in Jiangsu receiving a total subsidy of 240 million yuan, distributed over two years [3] - A financial event focused on industrial software was held in Nanjing, aiming to address financing challenges for software companies, with participation from national financial platforms [3] Global - In May, there was a net inflow of 33 billion USD in cross-border funds from non-bank sectors in China, with high levels of trade-related fund inflows and increased foreign investment in domestic stocks [4] - China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports are projected to reach approximately 2.71 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with exports expected to grow by 16.9% [4] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued new regulations for managing information related to civil unmanned aerial vehicle incidents, effective July 1 [4] Enterprise - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel may lead to an earlier-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to recession risks outweighing inflation risks [5] - The European Union is considering implementing carbon taxes on household heating and gasoline [5] - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% and plans to slow the pace of bond purchase reductions [5] - The International Energy Agency forecasts that electric vehicle sales will reach a record 17 million units in 2024, pushing global oil demand to its peak [5] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [5] - Baidu announced the launch of the industry's first dual digital human interactive live broadcast room during its "AI Day" event [5] - Rokid and Alipay have developed the world's first payable smart glasses, allowing direct payments without a mobile phone [5] - The third Chain Expo will take place in Beijing from July 16 to July 20, featuring participation from various AI companies and Nvidia [5]

新华财经北京6月18日电根据世界黄金协会于6月17日发布的《2025年全球央行黄金储备调查》(CBGR) 数据，95%的受访央行认为，在未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金。这一比例不仅创下自2019年首 次针对该问题进行调查以来的新高，也较去年上升了17个百分点。 世界黄金协会全球央行兼亚太区（中国除外）负责人樊少凯（Shaokai Fan)指出："我们的调查显示，近 半数的受访央行计划在未来一年内增储黄金，这表明在全球金融和地缘政治环境日益复杂多变的背景 下，黄金作为一项战略性资产的重要性愈发凸显。" 随着全球经济不确定性的增加，以及利率、通胀和地缘政治局势等因素的影响，黄金作为抵御风险的战 略性资产的角色变得更加重要。越来越多的央行正通过增持黄金来应对这些挑战，并优化其国际储备结 构。 （文章来源：新华财经） 央行持有黄金的主要动机已经转变为：长期价值储存（80%）、有效实现投资组合多样化（81%），以 及危机时期的表现（85%）。新兴市场和发展中经济体（EMDE）央行对黄金在储备组合中的作用尤其 乐观。 在58家受访的EMDE央行中，有28家（占比48%）预计其黄金储备将在未来12个月内增加；而在发达 ...

世界黄金协会：95%央行预计未来12个月黄金储备将上涨 金十数据6月17日讯，世界黄金协会表示，该协会《2025年央行黄金储备调查》创下新基准，共收到73 份回复——这是该调查八年前启动以来的最高值。如此高的参与度有力表明， 央行界对黄金的关注度 正在提升。调查结果显示： 2. 创纪录的43%的央行表示，其所在机构的黄金储备在同一时期也将增加，且无人预期黄金持有量会下 降。 3. 主动管理黄金储备的央行比例从2024年的37%升至2025年的44%，提升收益仍是主因，但风险管理超 越战术交易，成为第二大动机。 4. 英国央行仍是最受欢迎的黄金储备存放地（64%），不过选择国内存储黄金的央行比例从2024年的 41%升至2025年的59%，但仅7%计划未来12个月增加国内存储。 黄金在危机时期的表现、投资组合多元化功能及抗通胀特性，是推动各国央行计划在未来一年增持黄金 的关键因素。这些特质，也是央行对黄金进行战略配置的核心原因。 1. 各国央行对黄金的预期持续向好，95%的央行认为，全球央行黄金储备在未来12个月将增加。 ...

Group 1 - The emphasis on deepening the implementation of the free trade zone enhancement strategy to explore broader and deeper areas for higher-level free trade zones [1][5] - The steady expansion of institutional openness in various free trade zones this year, promoting innovation across the entire industry chain [1][5] - The role of free trade zones as a demonstration and leading force in economic development [1][5] Group 2 - The opening of the Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo, with participation from 53 African countries and over 3,000 enterprises and organizations [13] - The establishment of a domestic trade credit insurance co-insurance body to enhance domestic trade insurance capacity, providing an initial insurance guarantee of 10 billion yuan [18] Group 3 - The launch of a new batch of reserve rice by the Japanese government to stabilize rice prices, with 120,000 tons released [28][29] - The continuous rise in rice prices in Japan due to extreme heat and poor harvests, with the average price for 5 kilograms of rice around 210 yuan [29]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank's report indicates that by 2024, gold's share in global central bank reserves will rise to 20%, surpassing the euro's 16%, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1] - Central banks' demand for gold is projected to account for over 20% of global gold demand in 2024, significantly higher than the 10% average from 2010 to 2020 [1] - The net purchases of gold by central banks are expected to exceed 1000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, setting a historical record [1] Group 2 - Jewelry and investment in gold continue to dominate global gold demand, accounting for approximately 70%, remaining stable over the past three years [1] - A survey by the World Gold Council reveals that central banks primarily hold gold for diversification and as a hedge against economic risks such as inflation, cyclical downturns, and debt defaults [1] - Geopolitical factors have increasingly influenced central bank investments in gold, with one-quarter of emerging market central banks citing these factors as a primary driver for their gold holdings [1] Group 3 - Gold prices are expected to surge by approximately 30% in 2024, with the inflation-adjusted price exceeding the peak during the 1979 oil crisis [1] - Traditionally, gold is viewed as a hedge against fluctuations in real interest rates; however, since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has been disrupted, with geopolitical risks becoming a significant factor affecting gold prices [1] Group 4 - Changes in gold supply are identified as a crucial variable for future gold price trends, with historical data suggesting that gold supply has previously responded elastically to rising demand [2] - An increase in official sector demand for gold reserves may lead to a further rise in global gold supply [2]

Group 1 - The global official reserve status of gold is increasing, with its share in central bank reserves projected to exceed 20% in 2024, surpassing the euro's 16% share, making gold the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1] - Central banks are expected to account for over 20% of global gold demand in 2024, a significant increase from 10% in the 2010s, with net purchases surpassing 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year, setting a historical record [1] - Jewelry and investment consumption still dominate global gold demand, accounting for approximately 70%, remaining stable over the past three years [1] Group 2 - Central banks primarily hold gold for diversification and as a hedge against economic risks such as inflation, cyclical downturns, and defaults, with geopolitical factors also playing a significant role in driving central bank investments in gold [1] - The nominal price of gold is projected to rise by about 30% in 2024, exceeding historical highs seen during the 1979 oil crisis, with geopolitical risks becoming a crucial factor influencing gold prices [1] - Future changes in gold supply will be an important variable for price trends, with central bank demand's impact on prices depending on the "stickiness" of gold supply, which has historically responded elastically to rising demand [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector has seen significant growth, with ETFs such as the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF rising over 70% year-to-date [1][3] - The sector demonstrated resilience, with a slight decline of less than 1% followed by a recovery, contrasting with broader market declines, as the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index surged by 4% [1] - The year-to-date performance of the top three ETFs in the innovative drug sector includes 71.59% for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF, 71.27% for the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF, and 70.79% for the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF [1][3] Group 2 - The capital inflow into the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index was notable, attracting 2.51 billion yuan, while other indices experienced significant outflows [7] - The report indicates that the innovative drug sector's growth is attributed to factors such as low valuations, policy support, and international business development [5][6] - The potential for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF to double in value within a short timeframe is highlighted, assuming a daily growth rate of 3% [5][6]