Market Overview - On December 17, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.47%, S&P 500 down 1.16%, and Nasdaq down 1.81% [1] - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Oracle dropping over 5%, Tesla down over 4%, and Nvidia falling nearly 4%, resulting in a total market value loss of $164.8 billion (approximately 1160.8 billion RMB) [2] Sector Performance - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 3.78%, with notable declines in stocks such as ASML, ARM, and AMD, each dropping over 5%, while Broadcom fell over 4% and TSMC and Intel dropped more than 3% [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.73%, with individual stocks like Huya down over 4% and several others, including NIO and Li Auto, down over 3% [3] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil prices surged, with an increase of over 3% during the day, closing up more than 2.9% due to geopolitical concerns following U.S. President Trump's order to block all sanctioned oil tankers from entering Venezuela [4] - Silver reached a new historical high at $66 per ounce, while gold was reported at $4338 per ounce [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective decline, with Bitcoin dropping to $86104 per coin, reflecting a decrease of 1.87% [5] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 154,000 traders experienced liquidation, totaling $526 million in losses [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 24.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 75.6% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to impose a complete blockade on all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela has heightened geopolitical risk concerns, leading to an increase in oil prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - International crude oil prices rose nearly 2% following the geopolitical developments [1] - As of 13:02 London time, Brent crude futures increased by $0.99, approximately 1.7%, reaching $59.91 per barrel [1] - West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $0.97, about 1.8%, to $56.24 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to impose a complete blockade on all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela has heightened geopolitical risk concerns, leading to an increase in oil prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - As of 13:02 London time, Brent crude futures rose by $0.99, an increase of approximately 1.7%, reaching $59.91 per barrel [1] - West Texas Intermediate crude increased by $0.97, reflecting a rise of about 1.8%, priced at $56.24 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a sharp increase due to reports of the U.S. preparing new sanctions against Russia if Moscow refuses to accept a peace proposal regarding the Ukraine conflict [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions on Russia - The U.S. is considering new sanctions targeting the "shadow fleet" of oil tankers used for transporting Russian oil, as well as traders facilitating these transactions [4][5]. - These sanctions are being prepared to apply pressure on President Putin to accept a peace agreement with Ukraine, with potential announcements expected as early as this week [5]. - Ongoing negotiations between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives have made progress on potential peace agreement terms, although key issues remain unresolved [5]. Group 2: Impact on Oil Prices - Brent crude oil futures rose by as much as 2.4%, surpassing $60 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of sanctions against both Venezuela and Russia [1][4]. - The recent actions taken by the Trump administration against Venezuela, including a comprehensive maritime blockade, have also contributed to the upward trend in oil prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.42%, the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 5.05%, the main contract of platinum increased by 7%, and the main contract of palladium climbed 6.99%. [1] - In the short - term, the hedging demand from trade wars has subsided, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment situation has weakened, and inflation is moderate, causing the expectation of interest rate cuts to slow down. [1] - After the US and Europe consider providing security protection to Ukraine after a cease - fire, the German Chancellor stated that military action against the Russian army could be taken if necessary. Consensus has been announced from the Sino - US economic and trade consultations. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other regions still remain. [1] - In November, the US employment rebounded more than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. The Fed cut the interest rate amidst various disagreements, hinting at a suspension of action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. Powell pointed out that the Fed's interest rate policy is in a good position to handle future economic trends, but he refused to provide guidance on whether there will be another interest rate cut in the near future. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak while silver will be strong, and platinum and palladium will rise; in the medium - term, they will oscillate at a high level; in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step. [1] - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is advisable to sell high and buy low. It is suggested to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Data - **International prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract was $4332.20 per ounce, down $2.10 (-0.05%) from the previous day and up $95.60 (2.26%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $4324.20 per ounce, up $8.35 (0.19%) from the previous day and up $126.20 (3.01%) from the previous week. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 979.72 yuan per gram, up 8.30 yuan (0.85%) from the previous day and up 23.32 yuan (2.44%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 972.93 yuan per gram, up 8.26 yuan (0.86%) from the previous day and up 21.80 yuan (2.29%) from the previous week. [2] - **Basis, spreads, and ratios**: The difference between the Shanghai gold main contract and London gold was - 7.43 yuan per gram, up 8.74 yuan (-54%) from the previous day and up 3.18 yuan (-30%) from the previous week. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.79 yuan per gram, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day and down 1.52 yuan from the previous week. The gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 67.70, down 2.28 (-3.26%) from the previous day and down 4.21 (-5.86%) from the previous week. The gold - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.08, up 0.06 (0.78%) from the previous day and up 0.13 (1.63%) from the previous week. The gold - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 78.67, up 2.20 (2.87%) from the previous day and up 6.11 (8.42%) from the previous week. [2] - **Positions**: The position of Comex gold was 432,946 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The position of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 197,105 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 899 lots (0.46%) from the previous day and up 4,446 lots (2.31%) from the previous week. The position of gold TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 45,964 lots (1 kilogram per lot), down 1,736 lots (-0.79%) from the previous day and up 16,318 lots (8.13%) from the previous week. [2] - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The Shanghai gold inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18 tons, unchanged from the previous day, up 1.57% from the previous day, and up 1.32% from the previous week. [2] - **CFTC managed - fund net positions**: The weekly position of asset management institutions was 107,976 lots, with an increase of 11,291 lots compared to the previous week. [2] - **Gold ETF**: The SPDR gold ETF was 952.53 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 3.15 tons (-0.33%) from the previous week. [2] - **Futures warehouse receipts**: The registered warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 18 tons, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.38% from the previous week. [2] Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies' Members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - **Long positions**: The total long positions of the top 5 members were 80,129 lots, an increase of 2,211 lots (23.17%); the total long positions of the top 10 members were 115,253 lots, an increase of 2,264 lots (33.33%); the total long positions of the top 20 members were 151,017 lots, an increase of 3,649 lots (43.67%). [3] - **Short positions**: The total short positions of the top 5 members were 10,555 lots, a decrease of 500 lots (3.05%); the total short positions of the top 10 members were 13,468 lots, a decrease of 519 lots (3.89%); the total short positions of the top 20 members were 14,364 lots, a decrease of 534 lots (4.15%). [3] Silver Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is advisable to sell high and buy low. It is suggested to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Data - **International prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract was $64.13 per ounce, up $2.04 (3.29%) from the previous day and up $5.63 (9.62%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $63.87 per ounce, down $0.64 (-0.99%) from the previous day and up $5.50 (9.41%) from the previous week. [6] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 15,512 yuan per kilogram, up 846 yuan (5.77%) from the previous day and up 1,139 yuan (7.92%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 15,455 yuan per kilogram, up 806 yuan (5.50%) from the previous day and up 1,078 yuan (7.50%) from the previous week. [6] - **Basis and spreads**: The difference between the Shanghai silver main contract and London silver was 1,058.46 yuan per gram, up 990.83 yuan (1465.09%) from the previous day and down 63.02 yuan (-5.62%) from the previous week. The basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 57 yuan per kilogram, down 40 yuan from the previous day and down 61 yuan from the previous week. [6] - **Positions**: The position of Comex silver was 144,541 lots (5000 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The position of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,834,910 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 373,980 lots (6.85%) from the previous day and down 923,445 lots (-13.66%) from the previous week. The position of silver TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 3,762,134 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 35,016 lots (0.94%) from the previous day and down 71,616 lots (-1.87%) from the previous week. [6] - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory was 27,186 tons, an increase of 932 tons (3.55%) from the previous week. The Comex silver inventory was 14,115 tons, down 22 tons (-0.00%) from the previous day and down 61 tons (-0.43%) from the previous week. The Shanghai silver inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 912 tons, an increase of 170 tons (22.93%) from the previous week. The silver inventory on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 714 tons, an increase of 21 tons (3.04%) from the previous week. The total explicit inventory was 42,836 tons, down 22 tons (-0.05%) from the previous day and up 93 tons (0.22%) from the previous week. [6] - **CFTC managed - fund net positions**: The weekly position of asset management institutions was 20,127 lots, a decrease of 806 lots compared to the previous week. [6] - **Silver ETF**: The iShare silver ETF was 16,018.29 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 64.87 tons (-0.40%) from the previous week. [6] - **Futures warehouse receipts**: The registered warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 820,921 kilograms, an increase of 132,965 kilograms (19.33%) from the previous week. [6] Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies' Members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - **Long positions**: The total long positions of the top 5 members were 126,825 lots, an increase of 11,877 lots (15.88%); the total long positions of the top 10 members were 172,346 lots, an increase of 26,401 lots (21.58%); the total long positions of the top 20 members were 212,404 lots, an increase of 29,129 lots (26.59%). [7] - **Short positions**: The total short positions of the top 5 members were 51,487 lots, an increase of 6,995 lots (6.45%); the total short positions of the top 10 members were 81,083 lots, an increase of 12,039 lots (10.15%); the total short positions of the top 20 members were 100,625 lots, an increase of 16,277 lots (12.60%). [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value; the discount rate was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value; the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value; the Fed's total assets were $6,590.319 billion, an increase of $4.134 billion (0.00%) compared to the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) was 4.65%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared to the previous value. [8] - **US Treasury yields and related spreads**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.52%, down 0.02 (-0.79%) from the previous day and up 0.01 (0.40%) from the previous week; the US dollar index was 98.22, down 0.06 (-0.06%) from the previous day and down 1.02 (-1.03%) from the previous week; the US Treasury spread (3 - month to 10 - year) was 0.16, up 0.02 (14.29%) from the previous day and up 0.04 (25.00%) from the previous week; the US Treasury spread (2 - year to 10 - year) was - 0.51, up 0.05 (-8.93%) from the previous day and up 0.06 (13.33%) from the previous week; the US - Europe spread (10 - year bond yield) was 1.61, down 0.03 (-1.83%) from the previous day and up 1.61 (100.00%) from the previous week; the US - China spread (10 - year bond yield) was 2.90, down 0.03 (-0.98%) from the previous day and down 0.00 (-0.17%) from the previous week. [8][10] - **US inflation**: CPI (year - on - year) was 3.00%, unchanged; CPI (month - on - month) was 0.30%, unchanged; core CPI (year - on - year) was 3.00%, unchanged; core CPI (month - on - month) was 0.30%, unchanged; PCE price index (year - on - year) was 2.79%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; core PCE price index (year - on - year) was 2.83%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 4.10%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points; the 5 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.20%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points. [10] - **US economic growth**: GDP (annualized year - on - year) was 2.00%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points; GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) was 3.80%, an increase of 4.40 percentage points. [10] - **US labor market**: The unemployment rate was 4.60%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 6.40 million, an increase of 1.69 million; the labor participation rate was 62.40%, unchanged; the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.50%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points; the weekly working hours were 34.30 hours, an increase of 0.10 hours; ADP employment was - 3.20 million, a decrease of 7.90 million; the initial jobless claims for the week were 23.60 million, an increase of 4.40 million; the number of job openings was 8.179 million, an increase of 0.502 million; the number of Challenger corporate layoffs was 7.13 million, a decrease of 8.18 million. [10] - **US real estate market**: The

富格林作为稳健营运近16年的资深企业，凭借享誉亚洲500强名企的雄厚实力为投资者严厉曝光各式欺诈套路，坚持护航资产增值之路。周二（12月16日） 现货黄金价格在高位震荡，受到了美国就业数据、地缘政治紧张局势以及美联储政策预期的多重影响。最新公布的非农数据强化了市场对美联储进一步降 息的预期，俄乌冲突的最新进展为黄金提供了潜在的避险支撑。投资者们正密切关注即将公布的CPI和PCE数据，以及美联储官员的讲话，这些因素将共同 塑造黄金的短期走势。投资者如面对欺诈套路疑惑，可随时在线联系富格林分析师团队，善用提供的即时策略意见高效把握曝光的获利良机。 富格林据讯，周二现货黄金盘中一度重回4330美元上方，但未能站稳此处，再次回至4300大关附近震荡，最终收跌0.07%，报4302.36美元/盎司。 在经历政府停摆导致的多次延迟后，美国周二公布数据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于市场普遍预期的5.1万人，显示就业增长出现一定反弹。 尽管就业增长超出预期，但失业率从9月的4.4%升至4.6%，创下四年多来最高水平。总体来看，美国劳动力市场仍保持韧性，但增长速度减缓，这增强了市 场对美联储在2026年可能进一步 ...

昨日12月16日（星期二），黄金早盘上涨至4318附近受阻下跌，到欧盘前最低跌至4271附近，欧盘低位震荡。美盘前开始企稳上涨，美盘初延续上涨，最高 触及4335附近，随后受阻下跌，凌晨下探4291附近后反弹4300上方震荡，日线收出一根十字阴线。 一、基本面 1、美国11月就业数据"撕裂" 积极面：非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，显著高于市场预期的5万个，扭转10月减少10.5万个岗位的颓势（10月减少因43天政府停摆导致联邦政府职位锐减16.2 万个）；私人部门就业平均每月增加7.5万个，被视为劳动力市场健康的积极信号。 局势动态：俄罗斯控制哈尔科夫地区诺沃普拉托诺夫卡定居点，对乌军设施实施154次打击；乌克兰在多方向击退俄军进攻；美欧考虑停火后向乌提供安全 保护，德国总理默茨称必要时维和部队可对俄军动武，且欧洲有50%可能性用冻结的俄罗斯资产为乌提供至少两年资金支持。 消极面：失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来（四年多）最高水平，部分受技术因素影响（政府停摆后联邦雇员自报失业、调查回应率仅64%低于正常 水平、"轮换偏差"），且失业率数据标准误差高于正常，需谨慎解读。 市场影响：就业反弹支撑美元缩 ...

Core Insights - Russia has exempted Chinese citizens from visa requirements for various purposes, including tourism and cultural activities, marking a significant step in strengthening bilateral relations [3] - The Russian e-commerce market is experiencing rapid growth, with online retail sales reaching 4.4 trillion rubles (approximately 400 billion RMB) in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a 39% year-on-year increase [3] - The geopolitical shifts due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have created a substantial market gap, presenting new opportunities for Chinese goods with supply chain advantages [3] Economic Overview - The Russian economy is under pressure, with the central bank selling gold reserves to meet budgetary needs, reducing its gold reserves from 405.7 tons to 173.1 tons since the onset of the conflict [4][5] - The fiscal deficit for Russia reached 3.69 trillion rubles (approximately 325.5 billion RMB) in the first half of the year, over five times the deficit for the same period in 2024 [5] - The Russian government is expected to spend at least 16.55 trillion rubles (approximately 1.4715 trillion RMB) on military-related expenditures in 2025 [5] Currency and Payment Challenges - The ongoing conflict has led to significant currency fluctuations, with the ruble experiencing volatility of up to 50% annually, impacting merchants' profitability [6] - The ruble has appreciated over 40% against the dollar in 2025, but geopolitical risks remain a critical factor influencing its value [6][7] - Payment processing has been disrupted due to sanctions, with fewer banks willing to engage in transactions involving Russian funds, although some local banks are beginning to accept payments from Russia [7][8] Logistics and Supply Chain - The logistics landscape has been reshaped by the conflict, with transportation costs increasing by 69% over the past three years due to the need for new infrastructure and alternative routes [8] - Ozon has established fulfillment centers in ten Chinese cities and is optimizing logistics services for cross-border sellers, potentially reducing logistics costs by about 40% [9] - The platform is also enhancing return policies to alleviate operational costs for Chinese sellers, allowing for easier re-listing of returned items [9] Marketing and Brand Localization - The tightening of control over foreign social media platforms has led to a shift towards local platforms like VK and Telegram for brand marketing in Russia [10][11] - Ozon plans to launch the "Ozon Alliance Program" in 2026 to connect Chinese sellers with over 1 million KOLs on VK, facilitating off-site traffic generation [11] - The restructuring of the Russian e-commerce market necessitates adaptation to new operational rules, with early adopters likely to benefit from growth opportunities [11]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月16日16时29分 一、黄金 报告导读： ①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美 国官员与乌克兰总统泽连斯基旨在结束战争的重要会谈取得进展。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币 属性方面，美联储威廉姆斯表示，政策已从温和限制性转向中性，料通胀明年回落。美国初请失业金人数创近四年半最大增幅。美 联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来 经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4 月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短 期需求仍有任性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银 强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | --- | | 策略 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remain stable near a key breakout area despite a brief pullback, supported by the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which enhance safe-haven demand [1][3][8] Group 1: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut marks the third reduction since 2025, with Chairman Powell indicating a continued accommodative stance, boosting expectations for low rates to persist until 2026 [3] - The dovish shift from the Fed has lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading investors to favor metal assets amid declining yields [3][8] - Recent comments from Fed officials reinforce dovish expectations, with New York Fed President John Williams stating that the current policy is appropriate as the economy progresses towards 2026 [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical developments, including hints of a potential peace agreement regarding Ukraine, may temporarily ease safe-haven demand, although unresolved border disputes and security concerns continue to support gold demand [3][8] - The market sentiment remains influenced by geopolitical uncertainties, which contribute to the overall bullish outlook for gold [1][3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has formed a third arc bottom within a sustained upward channel, indicating a consolidation phase within a broader bullish trend [4][7] - The current price action suggests that if gold successfully breaks through the key resistance level, it could trigger a new wave of upward momentum, with potential targets around $4900 if the $4350-$4400 range is surpassed [7][8] - The technical outlook remains optimistic as long as prices stay above the support level near $4100 [7]