Core Insights - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons in Q2 2025, with a value surge of 45% to $132 billion, marking a historical high [1] - The growth was primarily driven by investment demand, central bank purchases, regional market differentiation, and structural changes in consumption trends [2] Investment Demand: Core Growth Engine - Gold ETFs and similar products were the main drivers of demand growth, with a net inflow of 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with slight outflows in the same period of 2024 [3] - Cumulative inflows for the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020, reflecting institutional investors' hedging against geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3] - In China, gold ETF inflows amounted to 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion), with holdings increasing to 200 tons and assets under management (AUM) surging 116% year-on-year to 152.5 billion RMB [3] - Demand for gold bars and coins grew by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons, with Chinese investors leading globally with a demand of 115 tons, a 44% increase year-on-year [3] Central Bank Purchases: Long-term Support - Global central banks net purchased 166 tons of gold in Q2 2025, remaining at historically high levels, 41% above the average from 2010-2021 [6] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold holdings in the next 12 months, highlighting a trend towards de-dollarization [6] - The People's Bank of China added 6 tons in Q2, totaling 19 tons for the first half of the year, with official reserves reaching 2299 tons, accounting for 6.7% of foreign reserves [6] Consumption Demand: Structural Changes - Global gold jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, nearing 2020 pandemic lows, with China's demand dropping 20% year-on-year to 69 tons, the weakest Q2 since 2007 [7] - Despite the decline, high-end jewelry demand remained resilient, while the mass market shifted towards lighter, more innovative designs, leading to a 21% increase in consumption value to $36 billion [7] - India's demand decreased by 17% year-on-year, although pre-wedding season purchases and trade-in policies mitigated some of the decline [8] Price and Supply: Market Balance Amid High Prices - The average gold price in Q2 reached $3280.35 per ounce, a 40% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [12] - In China, the average physical gold price surpassed 1000 RMB per gram, with retail prices fluctuating between 984-1018 RMB per gram [13] - Gold mine production increased by 3% year-on-year to 909 tons, a record high for the quarter, while recycled gold supply grew by only 4%, indicating a reluctance among holders to sell [14] - Overall, gold prices rose by 26% in the first half of the year, outperforming most mainstream assets [15] Regional Market: Differentiation and Resilience - The Chinese market exhibited strong investment but weak consumption, with total retail gold demand reaching 245 tons, a 28% increase year-on-year, despite weak jewelry demand [16] - In India, demand for gold bars and coins rose to 46 tons, but jewelry consumption fell by 17% due to price-sensitive consumers reducing purchases [17] - European demand doubled due to post-energy crisis risk aversion, while U.S. demand for bars and coins fell to 9 tons due to a high-interest rate environment [17] - The growth in gold demand underscores its dual value as a safe-haven asset and a long-term allocation tool [17] Future Outlook - Geopolitical developments, monetary policy trajectories, and changes in consumer behavior will be key variables influencing the gold market [19]

Group 1 - The global economy in 2025 is characterized by uncertainties, including trade wars, technological transitions, and geopolitical risks, making financial markets a key window for observing macro trends [1] - The recent roundtable discussion at Fudan University focused on the themes of economic and trade competition, technological transitions, and the current international financial situation, aiming to provide academic references for China's capital market in response to new international changes [1][2] - The chief economist from ICBC International highlighted that the global economic recovery cycle is confirmed for 2023-2024, but recent trade wars have caused fluctuations in expectations, with Hong Kong stocks rising nearly 30% in the past three months, outperforming global markets [2] Group 2 - The resilience of the Chinese economy is attributed to its large-scale market and complete industrial system, with a focus on the integration of digital and real economies [3] - The chief economist from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation emphasized the need for China to manage its relationships with the US and neighboring countries carefully to avoid isolation, suggesting a focus on domestic demand and long-term strategies [3] - The Fudan University professor pointed out that the capital market is crucial for activating property income and addressing the decline in regular income, which is essential for the internationalization of the RMB [4] Group 3 - The discussion highlighted the importance of capital markets in supporting early-stage financing for technology companies and accelerating breakthroughs in advanced technology fields [5] - Experts agreed that the global economic recovery is subject to fluctuations, but China's manufacturing advantages and technological potential provide resilience against challenges [6] - The need for China to be cautious of deflation and geopolitical risks was emphasized, advocating for counter-cyclical policies and technological breakthroughs to achieve quality growth [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, the outlook suggests that the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate, and some chemical products with high inventories may face pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US second - quarter GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, and the Chinese economy showed vitality and resilience. The energy and chemical sector continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors and economic data influenced the prices of energy and chemical products. The high - level meeting in China indicated good economic indicators, which may reduce the possibility of introducing economic stimulus policies, dragging down the demand side of commodities and energy chemicals to some extent [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical support continued, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: The US imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil, and concerns about Trump's possible increased sanctions on Russia continued. Geopolitical factors drove oil prices. High refinery operations in China and the US and strong margins provided support, but OPEC + was in a period of rapid production increase, and supply pressure was still present. - **Outlook**: The strong reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure balanced each other, and oil prices fluctuated. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9]. 3.2 LPG - **Viewpoint**: The support from the cost side weakened, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained loose, and the PG futures market might fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.3 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices rose, it was a good time for short - sellers of asphalt to enter the market. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price rebounds drove asphalt price increases. The spot market of asphalt was stronger in the north than in the south, and the futures market might shift from Shandong - based pricing to East and South China - based pricing. The demand side was weak, and the valuation of asphalt was relatively high. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt was over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt might decline as the number of warehouse receipts increased [11]. 3.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation was affected. The supply of heavy oil increased, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil were weakening. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to increase and demand to decrease. Geopolitical upgrades would only cause short - term price fluctuations, and high - sulfur fuel oil would fluctuate weakly [12]. 3.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It followed the trend of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread increased, low - sulfur fuel oil faced negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. The supply was expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it would maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited demand for high - sulfur fuel oil substitution, but with a low current valuation, it would fluctuate following crude oil [13]. 3.6 PX - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the fundamental pricing logic, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations. - **Main Logic**: The impact of commodity sentiment subsided, and the market returned to fundamental pricing. Many PX plants were scheduled to restart in August, and new PTA plants were put into operation, so the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and there was limited upward or downward space. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of US secondary sanctions on Russia on oil prices [14]. 3.7 PTA - **Viewpoint**: New plants were put into operation, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. - **Main Logic**: The supply and demand of PTA both increased, but the marginal supply - demand relationship was still weak, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. The price would follow the cost of upstream products, and the processing fees might improve after large - scale plant maintenance in early August. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15]. 3.8 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil rebounded, the price of pure benzene increased slightly. - **Main Logic**: The price of pure benzene increased slightly following the rebound of crude oil. The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved in the third quarter, but the rebound was limited by inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate [16]. 3.9 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The commodity sentiment cooled down, while crude oil prices broke through. Styrene fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved, but it did not strongly support styrene. Styrene's own supply - demand was expected to weaken, and port inventories were accumulating. - **Outlook**: Although styrene inventories at ports were increasing recently, the inventories of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain were not high. If the macro - sentiment continued to improve, there might be inventory replenishment in the industry chain, which could support the market. Attention should be paid to changes in commodity sentiment [19]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The fundamental driving force was limited, and typhoons affected the arrival rhythm of goods. - **Main Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol changed little. Although the demand increased slightly due to the rising polyester load, the supply was expected to increase in August, and the market was in a wide - balance state. Typhoons affected port inventories, but there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium term. - **Outlook**: There was an expectation of an inventory inflection point [20]. 3.11 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It followed the trend passively. - **Main Logic**: Under the fluctuating raw material prices, the supply - demand of short - fiber changed little, and it mainly followed the upstream products. The downstream sales were still not good. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of short - fiber would remain stable, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [22]. 3.12 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the cost - pricing model. - **Main Logic**: With the fluctuating upstream polyester raw materials, the price of bottle - chip was mainly determined by cost, and its own supply - demand changed little, and the processing fees were weak. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of bottle - chip had support at the bottom, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [23]. 3.13 PP - **Viewpoint**: There was still some macro - support, and PP fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Short - term oil price increases and positive signals from the macro - level provided support, but the supply side was expected to increase, and the demand side was weak. - **Outlook**: PP would fluctuate in the short term [31]. 3.14 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: It mainly followed the fluctuations, and PL might fluctuate in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot supply of propylene was abundant, and the enterprise inventory was controllable. The market followed the fluctuations of PP and methanol. Due to the new product listing and far - month contracts, the influence of spot was limited, and the market might fluctuate at a relatively high level. - **Outlook**: PL would fluctuate in the short term [32]. 3.15 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: As oil prices strengthened, plastic fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Oil price increases, macro - uncertainties, and the pressure on the supply side and weak demand side of plastic itself affected the market. - **Outlook**: The short - term oil price increase and macro - uncertainties led to short - term fluctuations in the plastic 09 contract [30]. 3.16 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The policy expectation cooled down, and PVC mainly fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: There were no unexpected policies in the high - level meeting, and the market sentiment cooled down. The fundamental situation of PVC was under pressure, with increasing production, weak downstream demand, and an expected increase in costs. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price declined [35]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Supported by low inventories in Shandong, caustic soda fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment cooled down. The demand for caustic soda from the alumina industry increased marginally, but the overall supply was high. There was a balance between low inventories in Shandong and cost support. - **Outlook**: The policy expectation cooled down, and there was pressure from near - month warehouse receipts. The downward space of caustic soda was limited [35]. 3.18 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Port inventories were accumulating, and methanol fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of methanol fluctuated. Port inventories increased, and the actual impact of policies was limited. The production profit was relatively high, and there was still a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin industry. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate in the short term [26]. 3.19 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The supply was strong and the demand was weak. The sentiment was temporarily boosted, and exports supported the market. Urea fluctuated in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot price increased, but the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained unchanged, with strong supply and weak demand. The market was expected to fluctuate due to the influence of coal policies. - **Outlook**: In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support was limited. The market sentiment temporarily boosted the price, and the futures price of urea would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the development after the market returned to fundamentals [26]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provided the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data reflected the price differences between different delivery months of each variety [37]. 4.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report presented the basis and the number of warehouse receipts for each variety, such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, PX, etc., which were important indicators for analyzing the relationship between the spot and futures markets [38]. 4.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report showed the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., which helped to understand the relative price relationships between different energy and chemical products [39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant performance variations among Hong Kong-listed companies, with some sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, education, and finance showing notable growth, while banks like Hang Seng Bank and HSBC experienced substantial declines in their earnings [2][5][9] Group 2 - Over 60 Hong Kong-listed companies have reported their mid-year results for 2025, with companies like Hong Kong Broadband and Yu Hua Education seeing their mid-year earnings double year-on-year [2][3] - Hong Kong Broadband reported a staggering 6911.73% increase in profit attributable to shareholders, reaching HKD 108 million, driven by improved operational efficiency and reduced financing costs [3] - Yu Hua Education's revenue for the six months ending February 28, 2025, was approximately CNY 1.278 billion, a 7.2% increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 108.7% to CNY 435 million, attributed to increased enrollment and optimized cost management [3] - WuXi AppTec achieved a revenue of CNY 20.799 billion for the first half of 2025, marking a 20.6% year-on-year growth, with net profit attributable to shareholders soaring by 95.5% to CNY 8.287 billion [3][4] - Huaneng International Power's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 112.032 billion, a decrease of 5.7%, while net profit increased by 23.19% to CNY 9.578 billion, attributed to effective fuel cost management [4] - IMAX China reported a revenue of USD 57.802 million for the first half of 2025, a 31.66% increase, with net profit rising by 88.9% to USD 23.893 million, driven by increased content solutions and technical services revenue [4] Group 3 - Hang Seng Bank's total operating income for the first half of 2025 was HKD 20.975 billion, a 3% increase, but pre-tax profit fell by 28.39% to HKD 8.097 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.46% to HKD 6.880 billion [5][7] - HSBC's pre-tax profit for the first half of 2025 was USD 15.8 billion, a decrease of USD 5.7 billion, with total revenue declining by 9% to USD 34.1 billion [9][12] - Following the earnings releases, Hang Seng Bank's stock price dropped by 7.4%, bringing its market capitalization down to HKD 214.2 billion [7] - HSBC's stock price also fell by 3.82%, resulting in a market capitalization of HKD 1.69 trillion [12] Group 4 - The overall earnings growth for the Hang Seng Index is expected to significantly increase compared to the previous year, with sectors like healthcare, information technology, and consumer discretionary leading the growth [13][15] - Retail, semiconductor, education, diversified finance, and gaming sectors are projected to see continued profit growth, while the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors remain at high levels of activity despite lower growth rates compared to the previous year [15]

在全球地缘政治局势持续紧张的背景下，美国总统特朗普近日对俄罗斯发出强硬警告，称若俄罗斯在结 束俄乌冲突问题上没有实质性进展，美国将在10天后对其实施严厉的关税和其他制裁措施。 摘要美国总统特朗普近日对俄罗斯发出强硬警告，称若俄罗斯在结束俄乌冲突问题上没有实质性进展， 美国将在10天后对其实施严厉的关税和其他制裁措施。特朗普的强硬立场加剧了地缘政治紧张局势，黄 金作为传统避险资产可能因此受益，短期内金价可能上涨。 特朗普在"空军一号"上对记者表示，他对俄罗斯的态度感到失望，认为普京似乎无意结束这场已持续三 年多的冲突。他明确指出，如果俄罗斯在10天内未能展现出结束冲突的诚意，美国将迅速采取行动，包 括对俄罗斯实施关税及其他经济制裁措施。 特朗普的强硬立场加剧了地缘政治紧张局势，黄金作为传统避险资产可能因此受益，短期内金价可能上 涨。然而，如果制裁导致全球经济放缓或美元走强（因美国加征关税可能提振美元），金价可能面临一 定下行压力。总体来看，短期内地缘政治风险主导，黄金价格更可能受到上行支撑。 需要注意的是，俄罗斯是全球主要石油出口国之一，若美国实施制裁，尤其是针对俄罗斯石油出口的二 级制裁，可能导致全球石油供应 ...

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, reaching a high of 3334.11 USD/oz after a prior low, indicating a successful low-buy strategy implemented at 3310-3320 USD/oz [1] - The current price of London gold is reported at 3327.36 USD/oz, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.98 and a slight rise of 0.03% [4] Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The recent agreement on the US-EU trade deal has alleviated some trade war concerns, which previously contributed to a decline in gold prices, although ongoing disputes may still provide opportunities for price rebounds [4] - Strong economic data has led to a recovery in the US dollar, which has negatively impacted gold prices; however, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve may limit further dollar gains, providing potential support for gold [4] - Geopolitical risks have temporarily decreased but continue to restrict significant declines in gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening and stabilizing, with gold prices operating above the lower band; MACD shows a bearish crossover with increasing green bars, while RSI indicates a retreat from overbought levels, currently between 50-40 [5] - The 4-hour chart shows narrowing Bollinger Bands, with prices near the middle band; a bullish crossover in MACD is emerging, and RSI indicates a rebound from oversold conditions, suggesting a clear demand for upward movement [5] - The hourly chart indicates stable Bollinger Bands, with prices above the middle band; MACD lines are converging, and RSI shows a rebound from oversold levels, reinforcing the demand for price recovery [5] Future Trading Strategies - For aggressive traders, a buy position can be established near the support level of 3300 USD/oz, while conservative traders may consider entering around 3265-3275 USD/oz, relying on the 3250 USD/oz support [7] - For short positions, aggressive traders can look to sell near the resistance level of 3400 USD/oz, while conservative traders may wait for a confirmation at 3445-3435 USD/oz [7] - Specific trading recommendations for futures and gold products include monitoring key support and resistance levels, with 770 RMB/kg as a critical support for futures and 765 RMB/kg for gold T+D [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, most are rated as "震荡" (sideways), with some "震荡偏弱" (weakly sideways) and no "偏强" (strongly bullish) or "偏弱" (strongly bearish) ratings [266] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market has warmed up again, with energy and chemical products generally showing a strong sideways trend, supported by the strength of raw materials such as crude oil and coking coal. The futures market has rebounded, but the spot market is relatively weak, especially for polyolefins. The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on the oil market and the supply - demand dynamics of various chemical products [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Influencing Factors - The upcoming Politburo meeting has led to a warm - up in the domestic commodity market. The energy and chemical sector is influenced by both crude oil and coking coal, with futures rebounding but spot prices being weak, especially for polyolefins. The situation in Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's remarks on Russia continue to support oil prices, while OPEC+ is in a period of rapid production increase, and there is a balance between strong demand from refineries and supply pressure [1][2][5] 3.2 Outlook for Each Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and the market should watch out for Russian oil risks. The high refinery operations in China and the US and geopolitical factors support prices, while supply pressure from OPEC+ exists. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5] - **Asphalt**: With the rise in crude oil prices, it is a good time for short - sellers to enter the market. The spot market shows a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south, and the futures market may shift the pricing from Shandong to East and South China. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the rebound of crude oil, but overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Geopolitical upgrades may only cause short - term price fluctuations, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [7] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price follows the rebound of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Although the current valuation is low, it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [8] - **PX**: After the cooling of market sentiment, it returns to cost and fundamental pricing logic. The supply is stable, and the demand from downstream PTA is weakening, with production profits narrowing [9] - **PTA**: Major suppliers have reduced production, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, and the processing fee has been repaired. The overall supply - demand situation in August is expected to improve, but the absolute price still mainly follows raw material fluctuations [9] - **Pure Benzene**: With the rebound of crude oil, its price has slightly increased. The third - quarter fundamentals have improved, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [10][11] - **Styrene**: As market sentiment cools, its price has declined. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventories are accumulating. If the macro - sentiment continues to improve, there may be inventory replenishment in the industry chain [12] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Market sentiment has cooled, and typhoon weather has led to a reduction in port inventories. The supply - demand situation in August - September is expected to turn to a wide - balance state, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation after the typhoon [13] - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the upstream polymerization cost has declined. The production and sales rate has increased, and some factories have carried out maintenance. The processing fee is expected to remain stable, and the absolute price will follow raw material fluctuations [14] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The support from upstream polyester raw materials has weakened, and the "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided. The market price is expected to follow raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee has support at the bottom [15][16] - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in the inland area is not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate. The domestic main production areas are in a state of weak supply and demand, and the port inventory has decreased. The profit of methanol production is still relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by the negative feedback from olefins [17] - **Urea**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. The market sentiment has received short - term support, and exports support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to its return to fundamentals [18] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The commodity sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply side still has pressure, while the demand side is in the off - season [21] - **PP**: The commodity sentiment is volatile in the short - term, and it is expected to fluctuate. The macro - support has weakened, and the supply side is expected to increase, while the demand side is weak [22] - **Propylene (PL)**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and it may fluctuate in the short - term. The spot supply of propylene is abundant, and the downstream follows the demand. The short - term macro - end may still fluctuate after the decline [23] - **PVC**: The policy expectation is positive, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The production is expected to increase, and the cost may rise [24] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by the low inventory in Shandong, it is expected to run sideways. The policy expectation is positive, and the demand from alumina is increasing, while the export price has rebounded slightly [24] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: The report provides cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads for various commodities, showing the price relationships and changes among different contracts and commodities [25][26][27] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists different commodities such as methanol, urea, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text, only the commodity names are mentioned [28][40][51]

昨夜，中国光伏行业协会发布澄清公告。 中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行 据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯 德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。双方就中美经贸关系、宏观经济政策等双方共同关心的经贸议题开展了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流，回顾并肯定了中美 日内瓦经贸会谈共识和伦敦框架落实情况。根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 何立峰表示，中美双方经贸团队要以两国元首6月5日通话重要共识为指引，秉持相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，尊重各自关切，进一步巩固共 识，加深互信。中方对中美经贸关系的立场是一贯的，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，双方在经贸领域拥有广泛共同利益和广阔合作空间，中美合则两 利、斗则俱伤。稳定、健康、可持续的中美经贸关系不仅有利于实现各自的发展目标，也有利于促进世界经济的发展与稳定。下一步，双方应继续按照两 国元首通话重要共识，充分发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作，进一步深化对话磋商，不断争取更多双赢结果。 美方表示 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of having a well-defined investment strategy before entering the market, akin to preparing for a battle [1] - It highlights the necessity of being proactive in predicting market trends and taking advantage of favorable conditions while maintaining strict risk control [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Recent gold prices have shown volatility, with a significant drop to a near three-week low of $3301.29 per ounce, influenced by a strong dollar and improved global risk appetite [2] - The article notes that gold is currently facing multiple challenges, including a strong dollar, rising risk appetite, and increasing real interest rates, which could lead to further declines [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3300, they may test the $3250 support level, while a recovery above $3340 could signal a bullish trend [2][3][5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are experiencing upward momentum due to rising geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Brent crude nearing $70 per barrel [6] - The article discusses the complexities in market sentiment due to geopolitical uncertainties and upcoming OPEC+ meetings that may influence supply decisions [6] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a mid-term upward trend, with short-term movements influenced by recent news, indicating a potential for further gains [7]

海外业务的高韧性成为业绩增长的重要驱动力。今年上半年，公司持续经营收入204.1亿元，海外客户 收入占比约85%。其中，来自美国客户的收入有140.3亿元，同比增长38.4%；来自欧洲客户的收入有 23.3亿元，同比增长9.2%。 信达证券研报指出，从2024年生物安全法案到2025年中美关税冲突，市场对于地缘政治风险的担忧已经 充分演绎，2025年H1公司来自美国客户的业务增速依然强劲，再次打消市场疑虑，全球化趋势难以抵 挡，公司在全球产业链中地位稳健。 细分业务中，TIDES（寡核苷酸和多肽）表现尤为亮眼。上半年，药明康德TIDES业务保持高速增长， 成为拉动业绩的关键因素之一。其业务收入50.3亿元，同比增长1.42倍，约占公司整体收入的24%。 7月29日，药明康德港股涨超11%，带动今日港股CRO板块逆势走强，泰格医药涨超9%，昭衍新药涨超 9%，康龙化成涨超7%。板块集体上扬的背后，是药明康德前一日发布的半年报数据为市场注入强心 针。 前一日晚间，药明康德公布2025年半年报。药明康德上半年营业收入208亿元，同比增长20.6%。归母 净利润85.61亿元，同比增长101.9%。今年上半年，公司持 ...