Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core View - In the off - season for consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a pattern of weakness on both sides, and macro uncertainties will continue to interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On May 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.64/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, the waste white shell remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,740 yuan/ton and closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 44,962 lots, an increase of 8,816 lots from the previous day. The position was 36,929 lots, a decrease of 1,525 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,875 yuan/ton and a low of 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,720 yuan/ton and closed at 16,830 yuan/ton, a 0.57% decrease from the previous afternoon's close [1] Spot Market Transactions - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton. In Henan, traders offered discounts of 100 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Jiangxi, smelters offered premiums of 50 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price and had some transactions; in Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and traders offered discounts of 60 - 50 yuan/ton, with sparse spot transactions; in Yunnan, holders offered discounts of 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price and had some transactions. Lead smelters sold according to the market, downstream buyers generally waited and watched, and only made a small amount of purchases for rigid demand. The overall spot market transactions were relatively light [2] Inventory - On May 7, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,700 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The upward movement of the futures market has boosted the atmosphere of the asphalt spot market, but the supply - demand weakness pattern generally continues, with a slight increase in refinery operating rates and production [1] - The overall inventory pressure is currently limited, but attention should be paid to the marginal supply changes after profit restoration [1] - The strategy for the asphalt market is a unilateral oscillation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Market - On May 7, the closing price of the main BU2506 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3432 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton or 2.66% from the previous day's settlement price; the open interest was 114,336 lots, a net increase of 418 lots, and the trading volume was 233,614 lots, a net increase of 39,209 lots [1] Spot Market - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3700 - 4086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3410 - 3720 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3320 - 3430 yuan/ton in South China, and 3500 - 3570 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The asphalt spot prices in the Northwest, North China, and Shandong regions increased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1] Fundamental Situation - As of May 6, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 881,000 tons, a 2.2% increase from April 28 [1]

1、\t5月7日地区价格：山东市场，4740—4880；东北市场，4430—4760；华北市场，4790—4905；华东市场，4900—5050； 沿江市场，5260—5500；西北市场，4700—4750；华南市场，5200—5280。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年6月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷641美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷587美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5081元/吨，跌40元/吨，丁烷4633元/吨，跌60元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年6月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷638美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷585美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5057元/吨，跌40元/吨，丁烷4637元/吨，跌40元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日东北民用气稳中个别小涨，整体出货氛围尚可，卖方库压可控，但进口端冲击仍存，预计今日主流维稳居多。 当前市场心态不一，民用端资源压力不大，但进口冲击犹存。原油上行缓和悲观情绪，但醚后下游有待改善，市 场情绪较为谨慎。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船 ...

2025 年 05 月 08 日 铝：价格承压 氧化铝：继续磨底 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 19465 | -320 | -565 | -1060 | -950 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 19340 | ー | । | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2381 | -47 | -57 | -124 | -271 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 266742 | 128036 | 105362 | 131711 | 162672 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 194811 | 11053 | -473 | 1037 | -6315 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 12659 | 3079 | 2620 | -3457 | -11861 | | | LME注销仓单占比 | 38. 50% | ...

农产品日报 | 2025-05-08 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7886元/吨，较前一日变动-28元/吨，幅度-0.35%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+314，较前一日变动+28；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.30元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+714，较前一日变动+28。 近期市场资讯，苹果节后市场走货较节前略清淡，节后价格运行趋于稳定，客商按需找货，多以前期包装货源发 运为主。西部产区客商货源交易稳定，现货商拿货尚可，存货商有序发市场为主；山东产区客商找货较节前略有 减少，高性价比货源走货仍表现顺畅，库内货源价格偏稳定运行。销区市场市场走货尚可，下游批发商维持按需 拿货，中转库基本无积压。陕西洛川产区目前库内果农统货70#起步主流价格4-4.2元/斤左右，客商前期货源4.4-4.5 元/斤，70#高次2.9-3.3元/斤左右，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.5-3.5元/斤， 80#一二级片红3.8-4元/斤。 市场分析 昨 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤430元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润760元/吨（-5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2095元/吨（-5），内蒙北线基差456元/吨（-25），内蒙南线2100元/吨（-50）；山东临沂2350元/吨（-30），鲁 南基差311元/吨（-50）；河南2300元/吨（-20），河南基差261元/吨（-40）；河北2325元/吨（-20），河北基差346元/ 吨（-40）。隆众内地工厂库存303910吨（+20560），西北工厂库存192000吨（+21000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单237780 吨（-11850），西北工厂待发订单120000吨（+7200）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2422元/吨（+2），太仓基差183元/吨（-18），CFR中国268美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差24元/ 吨（-23），常州甲醇2505元/吨；广东甲醇2370元/吨（+0），广东基差131元/吨（-20）。隆众港口总库存561870吨 （+24470），江苏港口库存230000吨（-18000），浙江港口库存149500吨（+5100），广东港口库存109000吨（+ ...

油料日报 | 2025-05-08 销区消费需求较为清淡，大豆价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2505合约4236.00元/吨，较前日变化+27.00元/吨，幅度+0.64%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05-116，较前日变化-27，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周二，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，基准期约收低0.41%，因为中美贸易紧张局 势，芝加哥豆油价格下跌，美国春播工作进展顺利 。4月7日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮 装车报价2.06元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较昨 日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷 河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.14元/斤，较昨日涨0.02元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.15元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日国内大豆价格震荡。4月压榨厂、蛋白厂对国产豆需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg industries is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - For the pig industry, it is expected that the spot price will remain weak in May, but the downside space of the futures contracts is limited due to large discounts. Although supply data shows an oversupply, low frozen product inventory and limited secondary fattening support the bottom of the pig spot price [2] - For the egg industry, the short - term supply - demand pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, but the increase in breeding costs provides some support for the spot price [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 15.04 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 15.23 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 14.70 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Wholesale market: On May 7, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 116.64, up 0.02 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 117.25, up 0.03 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 21.02 yuan/kg, up 0.3% [1] Market Analysis - From the supply - demand perspective, the spot price is expected to be weak in May. The large discounts of futures contracts limit the downside space. Low frozen product inventory and limited secondary fattening support the spot price, but their large - scale participation depends on price drops [2] Strategy - The strategy for the pig industry is neutral [3] Egg Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2506 contract was 2,890 yuan/500 kilograms, up 6 yuan (+0.21%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.10 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.73 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan [3] - Inventory: On May 7, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.34 days, unchanged; the circulation - link inventory was 1.79 days, up 0.03 days (1.70%) [3] Market Analysis - After the Qingming Festival, the spot price was weak. The post - festival restocking and the May Day holiday boosted demand and prices, but high - price acceptance at the consumer end was limited. Entering the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period, overall demand is slowly increasing, but the short - term oversupply pattern persists, and increased breeding costs support the price [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for the egg industry is neutral [6]

碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月7日电池级碳酸锂报价6.525-6.805万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.045万元/ 吨，工业级碳酸锂报价6.45-6.55万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.04万元/吨。部分锂盐企业陆续检修或减产，周度产 量环比继续小幅下降，但整体来看，减产力度不及预期，碳酸锂产量仍处于高位，减产难以对供需过剩格局造成 实质性改变。工电价差进一步收窄，根据SMM调研，五一假期结束，上下游普遍处于观望态度，市场成交寥寥。 且在价格持续落入新低的趋势下，下游亦等待价格的进一步下探，持续观望。虽矿价也在同步下跌，但上游锂盐 厂的亏损程度并未有所好转，其碳酸锂出货意愿较差。当前更多是贸易商因担心后市，目前出货意愿较强。4月动 力终端需求表现较好，但部分储能订单受到一定影响，一方面是由于国内强制配储要求取消，另一方面是受到美 国增加关税导致的需求有小幅下滑。5月储能市场需求将继续受到美国关税政策和国内取消强制配储的影响，小幅 减量；但动力市场仍有较好表现，预计5月电芯排产整体保持增量，磷酸铁锂材料5月产量也将增加。 策略 整体来看，现货成交重心下移，带动矿价下跌，锂盐虽有检修，但矿端未见减产，过 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are in a downward trend. The supply in the northwest region remains relatively high, and the demand is weak. The industry is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures price hit a new low, while the spot price remained stable. There is a game between production cuts by polysilicon enterprises to support prices and weak demand. The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit a new low. The main contract 2506 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8290 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 182,782 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on May 8 was 68,686 lots, a decrease of 244 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9900 - 10300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption of organic silicon DMC was stable, with a quotation of 11300 - 11800 yuan/ton. The overall operating capacity of domestic monomers decreased due to the resumption of some plants in East and North China and the maintenance of an 800,000 - ton plant in the northwest [1]. Strategy - The industry's total inventory pressure is relatively high, and the short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly. For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 36,670 yuan/ton and closing at 35,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 63,290 lots, and the trading volume was 135,166 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; the price of dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 20.62GW (with a month - on - month change of 5.58%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.29GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67% [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - In May, the polysilicon output decreased by about 0.2 million tons month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output decreased by about 4GW month - on - month. Some enterprises have new production capacity investment expectations in May, and the registration of warehouse receipts has started [6]. Strategy - The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games. Investors can choose to build long positions opportunistically. If the rebound is significant, upstream enterprises can sell hedging [7].