Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The price of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by multiple factors. The short - term price of US soybeans is under pressure due to the trade war and good planting progress, but there is strong support from low valuation, reduced planting area, and expected significant increase in US soybean oil demand. The cost of soybean arrival in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but the trade war and other factors may suppress the price of the soybean series [2][3][5]. - The price of palm oil is affected by factors such as US tariffs, export volume, and production volume. The current production of palm oil has recovered significantly, and the decline pressure of oil and fat is relatively large, but it may be supported if the macro - economy stabilizes [7][8][11]. - The price of sugar is affected by factors such as Brazilian production and domestic and foreign supply and demand. The supply shortage has been alleviated, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [13][14]. - The price of cotton is affected by domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16][17]. - The price of eggs is mainly determined by supply. With the increase in temperature and new production pressure, the upward pressure on egg prices is increasing, and a short - selling strategy is advocated [19][20]. - The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the pressure accumulates due to the increase in weight. A short - selling strategy after the price rebound can be considered under the shock pattern [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: Overnight US soybeans closed down. The sowing progress is higher than in previous years, and the demand side of US soybean oil lacks clear guidance. Some institutions expect the USDA to lower exports in the May monthly report, and the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio increases. The Brazilian soybean premium was stable yesterday, and the arrival cost decreased. The domestic soybean meal spot was stable on Wednesday, with the lowest price in East China at 3,100 yuan/ton. It is estimated that the soybean arrivals in May, June, and July will be 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively, and the inventory of soybean meal and soybeans will increase strongly in the next three months [2]. - **Weather and Cost**: In the next two weeks, there will be more rainfall in the southern part of the US soybean - producing area and sporadic rainfall in the central part, and the planting progress is expected to be normal. Due to high tariffs on US soybeans, China's soybean imports only rely on Brazil, and the Brazilian soybean premium has the motivation to strengthen later. The cost of soybean arrival in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but the trade war may suppress the price of the soybean series [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. It is expected that soybean meal will be relatively weak compared with US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: ITS and AMSPEC expect the export of Malaysian palm oil to increase by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, and the production of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly from May 1 - 5, 2025 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center will significantly suppress the valuation of oils and fats, and the production of palm oil has recovered significantly. The pressure on the decline of oils and fats is relatively large. In the medium term, if the macro - economy stabilizes, oils and fats may be supported [11]. 3.3 Sugar - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated weakly on Wednesday. The closing price of the September contract was 5,868 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The spot prices of sugar in various regions also decreased. In the first half of April, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply shortage has been alleviated, and the price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. The price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [14]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose on Wednesday. The closing price of the September contract was 12,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22%. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. There are some positive macro - policies [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by domestic macro - policies, the cotton price fluctuates. The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17]. 3.5 Eggs - **Market Situation**: The domestic egg price mainly declined yesterday, with sufficient supply and general downstream digestion speed. It is expected that the egg price will be mostly stable and a few will decline today [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply still dominates the current egg price. With the increase in temperature and new production pressure, the upward pressure on egg prices is increasing. A short - selling strategy should be maintained [20]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic live pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with a slight increase in some areas. The slaughter enterprise orders are difficult to increase, and the live pig price is expected to be stable today [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the pressure accumulates due to the increase in weight. A short - selling strategy after the price rebound can be considered under the shock pattern [23].

受房产税上调和唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战影响，英国房地产市场备受关注的指标跌至近两年来的最低水 平。皇家特许测量师学会表示，其4月份的成交量指数跌至-31，这意味着报告成交量下降的房地产经纪 人数量远远超过报告成交量增长的经纪人数量。该指数上一次走低是在2023年8月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Donald Trump's tariff policies on the global market and specifically on China's technology industry, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions and the strategic responses from China [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's "liberation day" tariff policies have raised concerns about a prolonged trade war, despite signals of potential agreements [1]. - Since the initiation of the first round of tariffs in 2018, China has been preparing for further trade conflicts, focusing on building a robust technology supply chain [1][2]. - The U.S. bipartisan consensus on technology restrictions against China, including chip export controls, is expected to persist regardless of tariff adjustments [2]. Group 2: China's Technological Advancements - China's self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry has significantly improved compared to five years ago, despite still lagging behind in cutting-edge technology [2]. - The success of the DeepSeek AI model has lowered the barriers for applying large language models, showcasing China's growing tech capabilities [2]. - Chinese companies are shifting their focus from reliance on controversial foreign chips, such as Nvidia's H20, to domestic alternatives like Huawei's AI systems, which may lead to substantial revenue growth for Huawei [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - Since 2018, many companies have relocated manufacturing to countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, but they still cannot completely abandon the Chinese market due to its scale and infrastructure advantages [3]. - Trump's punitive tariffs are expected to increase consumer costs and force U.S. tech giants to reassess their long-standing supply chain strategies [3]. - Chinese firms are adopting a cautious approach by pausing U.S. operations and focusing on non-U.S. markets to mitigate risks [3]. Group 4: AI Ecosystem and Future Outlook - Tariffs indirectly affect China's AI planning, as executives reassess AI initiatives, impacting the startup ecosystem [4]. - The development of AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors relies on international collaboration, despite the emphasis on strategic autonomy [4]. - The U.S. may attempt to maintain its tech leadership through tariffs and export controls, but these actions could accelerate China's self-sufficiency in technology [5]. - Future cooperation in areas like climate technology and healthcare remains a possibility, despite competitive tensions [5].

花旗集团的一位亚洲理财业务高管表示，尽管在贸易战升温之际，美国经济放缓、企业纷纷下调盈利预 期，但投资者不应撤离美国市场。"我们不建议客户完全退出美国市场，"Yeo Wenxian表示。Yeo负责花 旗的南亚地区及阿联酋的零售境内外理财业务。Yeo还表示，目前不是增加风险的时候，敦促投资者不 要"逢低买入"。 ...

据每日经济新闻报道，美国有线电视新闻网民调机构进行的一项最新民调显示，59%的民众认为美国总统特朗普的政策 恶化了美国经济状况，这一比例较3月份的51%有所上升。调查还发现，美国人对本国经济状况普遍不满，对白宫新贸易 政策缺乏热情。60%的民众称特朗普政策提高了所在社区生活成本，仅12%的民众认为其政策有助于降低物价。此外，仅 有34%的美国人对经济持乐观态度，29%的人感到悲观，37%的人表示担忧。 特朗普（资料图） 曾任美国总统高级经济顾问、现任纽约大学商学院经济学教授的劳伦斯·怀特指出，特朗普政府采取的经济政策违背了基 本经济原则。"各国应专注于最具效率的产业，通过贸易互补优势。关税只会推高成本，削弱福祉、收入与财富。这不仅 未能实现双赢，反而导致多方受损。"在全球供应链高度互联的背景下，业内人士和专家普遍担忧，持续升级的贸易壁垒 将对经济复苏和消费者福利产生长期负面影响。他们呼吁政府采取更加理性、可持续的经济政策以减缓冲击。 贸易战的双刃剑效应。特朗普的"对等关税"政策直接引发了中美贸易战。这场贸易战对美国而言主要导致通胀压力，而 中国则面临就业压力。双方都在通过补贴等政策手段来缓解这些压力，但长期来 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][52]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the impact of the trade war on the banking sector, indicating that as tariff shocks become evident, capital market trading will return to fundamentals. It reviews the banking industry's performance during the 2018-2019 trade conflicts and suggests that while there are similarities, the current trade war is not entirely comparable to the previous one [3][7][8]. - The report predicts that the current trade conflict will likely lead to a more severe impact on the banking sector, but due to China's economic structural transformation and enhanced response capabilities, the overall impact on bank performance will be limited. It emphasizes that the banking sector's performance is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions [5][37][48]. Summary by Sections Trade Conflict Review - The 2018-2019 trade conflict involved a cycle of "tariff increase - countermeasures - negotiation relief - escalation," affecting various sectors, including finance and technology. The trade conflict led to a 12.5% year-on-year decline in China's exports to the U.S. in 2019, prompting a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies [4][13][18]. - In 2019, China's GDP growth was 6.1%, within the target range of 6.0%-6.5%, indicating a stabilizing economy. The banking index showed absolute returns but lacked excess returns, with significant individual stock performance variations [4][25][28]. Current Trade War Impact - The current trade war is characterized by more intense tariff negotiations, with potential spillover into financial and technological conflicts. However, China's ability to respond has significantly improved due to years of economic restructuring [5][8][47]. - The report anticipates that the banking sector will face short-term challenges in scale growth and asset quality, but overall performance will remain stable due to high provisioning coverage and effective risk management practices [37][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector may not achieve excess returns but is expected to provide absolute returns. It highlights high-growth banks such as Changshu Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank as favorable investment options, while also recommending Jiangsu Bank for its stable performance and high dividend yield [6][44][48].

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/5/7 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 环比 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1288.200 | -24.0↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1559.6 | | +56.00↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2506-EC2508价差 -271.40 | -61.00↓ EC2506-EC2510价差 | | 0.30 | | -34.20↓ | | EC合约基差 90.87 | +11.30↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 39510 | 0↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 1379.07 | -50.32↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 1,320.69 | | 90.41↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1340.93 | -6.91↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | 1,227.97 | | 0.07↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1121.08 | -1.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced increased volatility due to trade war developments, significantly impacting gold prices and market risk appetite [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - Gold prices exhibited a V-shaped trend from April 28 to May 5, initially declining before rebounding, influenced by changing risk preferences amid tariff negotiations [1] - Following a rapid increase in April, gold prices require time for consolidation, with recent headwinds emerging from signals of easing tensions from the Trump administration and better-than-expected U.S. economic data [1][3] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly three years, while personal consumption expenditures rose by 1.8% [3] Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - The U.S. and Ukraine reached agreements on resource development, which initially boosted market sentiment, but subsequent trade negotiations with Japan and China faced setbacks, reigniting concerns over trade tensions [2] - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, surpassing expectations, but previous months' data were significantly revised downward [3] Currency Movements - Asian currencies appreciated during the May Day holiday, with the New Taiwan Dollar reaching a 22-month high, and the Hong Kong dollar rebounding within its trading range [4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened in the market, indicating a significant capital flow [4] Investment Opportunities - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds provide investors with exposure to gold prices through investments in Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, enhancing investment options for gold [4]

Core Viewpoint - Asian investors are significantly selling off their dollar assets, potentially amounting to $2 trillion, which could impact global markets amid the dual pressures of the Trump trade war and a weakening dollar fundamental [1]. Group 1: Dollar Asset Sell-off - Stephen Jen warns that the sell-off of dollar assets by Asian countries could lead to a "tsunami" pressure of $2.5 trillion on the world reserve currency, the dollar [1]. - The report by Eurizon SLJ Capital indicates that Asian exporters and investors have accumulated substantial dollar reserves, which have widened the trade surplus between Asia and the U.S. [1]. - The ongoing trade war led by Trump may prompt some Asian investors to repatriate large amounts of funds, resulting in significant outflows from the dollar [1]. Group 2: Currency Trends - The dollar index has dropped approximately 8% since its peak in February, with all Asian currencies appreciating against the dollar over the past month [3]. - If this trend continues, it could exert immense pressure on long-term dollar bullish positions [3]. - The Taiwanese dollar has seen a significant appreciation, surpassing 30 TWD per USD for the first time since summer 2022, driven by hedging activities and previous financing arbitrage trades [6][7]. Group 3: Regional Currency Impact - UBS forecasts that the Taiwanese dollar may continue to rise, potentially triggering a regional currency response in countries like South Korea and Singapore [8]. - Countries in Asia, excluding financial centers, such as South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, hold substantial foreign assets, which could lead to a significant decline in the dollar against these currencies if dollar assets are sold off [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - International oil prices rebounded recently after approaching the low in early April. The potential implementation of Kazakhstan's production - cut commitment may lead to a correction of OPEC+'s rapid production - resumption policy. The strategy of buying put options and selling call options on crude oil proposed on April 15 can take profits [2]. - Precious metals rose for the second consecutive night. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported by the US dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties. However, short - term prices are volatile, and the focus is on the Fed meeting [3]. - Different commodities have different trends, including copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as various chemical and agricultural products, with corresponding trading strategies proposed based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [4 - 44]. Summary by Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rebounded. OPEC+ policy may change, and the previous option strategy can take profits [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Prices rose, with long - term upward support but short - term volatility. Focus on the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: LME copper led the rise, while SHFE copper and COMEX copper faced resistance. Consider short - selling the 2507 contract or continue long - spread arbitrage between near - month contracts [4]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum oscillated weakly. High inventory during the May Day holiday, and resistance exists at 20000 - 20300 yuan. Consider selling hedging [5]. - **Alumina**: Production decreased due to maintenance, but re - production may occur. The price rebound is limited, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - **Zinc**: Domestic inventories increased after the holiday. Demand faces pressure, and short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [7]. - **Lead**: Inventories increased slightly. There is a game between cost and consumption. Pay attention to the internal - external price ratio and support levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and prices decreased. Short - selling opportunities are being observed [9]. - **Tin**: Prices rebounded, but the upper resistance is obvious. Short - selling is the main strategy [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices continued to be weak. Inventories changed, and short - positions should be held [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are expected to decline in May due to supply and demand factors [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices continued to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to remain weak [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. Supply decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience. The trend is expected to be volatile [15]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices rebounded at night. Demand and supply have different trends. The market may stabilize in the short term [14]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Freight rates are under pressure. Seasonal recovery is limited, and new capacity in June may suppress prices. Pay attention to potential short - term market opportunities [16]. Energy - Related Products - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are volatile. High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and the sustainability of low - sulfur fuel oil's improvement needs to be observed [17]. - **Bitumen**: Prices followed oil prices but were relatively strong. Demand increased seasonally, and the crack spread reached a new high [18]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has support, while the domestic market is under pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Prices were boosted by export news. Supply is sufficient, but the supply - demand contradiction may emerge after the peak agricultural demand [20]. - **Methanol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak [21]. - **Styrene**: The bear market continues. Production increases, and prices decline [22]. - **Polypropylene and Plastic**: Inventories increased during the holiday. Demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [23]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate at a low level due to supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but there is no clear long - position driver [24]. - **PX and PTA**: Prices rebounded. PX valuation recovered, and PTA inventory decreased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices rebounded, but the supply - demand drive is limited [26]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber prices followed the raw materials' rebound. Bottle - grade resin is in the peak demand season, and pay attention to the raw materials and potential production cuts [27]. - **Glass**: Production and sales were affected by the holiday, and inventory increased. The market is weak, but be cautious about short - selling near the cost [28]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure may ease in May due to maintenance. Do not be overly bearish in the short term, but look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Short - term soybean supply is sufficient, but there are uncertainties in the long - term. Soybean meal futures may be stronger than the spot in the short term [31]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil may see inventory increases in April. The market is expected to oscillate in the long term [32]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed futures market fluctuated. Pay attention to trade policies and look for long - position opportunities [33]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to policy guidance [34]. - **Corn**: The market is volatile. Be cautious about chasing long positions and wait for new supply [35]. - **Hogs**: The supply is expected to increase in the future. Pay attention to the decline in spot prices [36]. - **Eggs**: The supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. A bearish view is taken in the long term [37]. - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progresses smoothly. Domestic demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations [38]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian production data is initially bearish. Domestic sugar may oscillate in the short term [39]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on new - season output estimates. The output may be lower than expected, but there is uncertainty [40]. - **Timber**: The market is weak. Supply and demand are both in the off - season [41]. - **Pulp**: Prices continue to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the market is expected to remain weak [42]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares rebounded, and the short - term risk preference may continue to repair. Technology stocks may be stronger [43]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. Domestic liquidity may improve, and the market may remain range - bound [44].