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黄金价格不断创历史新高:多重国际因素推动避险资产狂飙
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-21 12:00
Group 1 - The international spot gold price has surpassed $3,387 per ounce, doubling from the low in 2022, with a year-to-date increase of 28.3% [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have reached a historical high of 1,040 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant market trend [2] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, a crisis in dollar credibility, a global central bank gold-buying spree, and shifts in monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have escalated, with tensions in the Middle East and the Iran nuclear facility attack causing a single-day gold price spike of 3% [2] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the intensifying US-China trade war are increasing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The World Bank estimates that if the trade war continues, global GDP growth could decline by 1.8% by 2025, further driving investment into gold due to supply chain disruptions [2] Group 3 - Global central banks have net purchased 420 tons of gold from January to April 2025, with emerging markets like China and India increasing their gold reserves [3] - China's central bank gold reserves have risen to 4.9%, the highest in 20 years, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization and gold as a sovereign credit stabilizer [3] - The risk of stagflation and recession is prompting investors to view gold as a hedge against inflation, with the US March CPI rising by 3.5% [3] Group 4 - The international and domestic gold markets are experiencing significant price increases, with London gold rising by 2.1% and COMEX gold futures surpassing $3,315 [5] - Demand for investment gold bars has surged by 27.1%, while gold jewelry consumption has decreased by 20% due to high prices [5] - Lightweight investment products, such as 10-50 gram gold jewelry and "gold beans," are gaining popularity, with sales increasing by 12%-20% [5] Group 5 - Analysts predict bullish trends for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs forecasting prices could reach $3,700-$4,000 by the end of 2025, and UBS projecting $3,400-$3,500 [5] - The long-term bull market for gold is supported by central bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks [5] - Despite the bullish outlook, some institutions warn of potential technical corrections in gold prices, which could face a 10%-15% decline if the Federal Reserve changes its policy or geopolitical tensions ease [5] Group 6 - The doubling of gold prices over the past 30 months reflects a restructuring of the global economic order and a collective market response to uncertainty [7] - While short-term volatility risks are increasing, long-term support for gold remains strong due to de-dollarization, stagflation threats, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts [7] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach in asset allocation amidst the current market fervor [7]
现货黄金首破3400!再刷历史新高
news flash· 2025-04-21 11:38
涨疯了!黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> 金价势不可挡,现货黄金成功站上3400美元/盎司,为历史上首次,日内拉升超70美元,今年迄今累涨 逾29%。 ...
专家访谈汇总:这才是黄金狂飙的真正推手
阿尔法工场研究院· 2025-04-21 10:07
1 、 《 金价,继续狂飙 》摘要 ■ 在初期因流动性紧张导致黄金短线被动回调后,市场回归"避险逻辑",推动金价再度上涨。 潜力的真实压力测试 。 4 、 《 黄金价格再创历史新高 》摘要 ■ 以"超硬材料"为例, 2024年9月、12月、2025年2月 三次政策发布即为明显波段上涨窗口。 ■ ■ 宇树科技表示并未参与此次比赛,视频中的G1机器人由 第三方客户购买后自主参赛 ,算法控制等 均由用户自行开发。 ■ 熊友军(北京具身中心)指出:"中国已处于全球第一梯队",但距离规模商业化仍有5~10年。 ■ 4月21日早盘, 黄金价格再度大涨,刷新历史新高 ,显示全球市场在高通胀、美元信用风险和地缘 冲突背景下对避险资产的强烈需求。 ■ 黄金已不再只是防御型资产,而成为主流资金布局的重要方向之一 ,尤其是亚洲央行和全球机构持 续加仓,推动金价节节攀升。 5、《 "出口管制"板块集体攀升 》摘要 ■ 中国在" 关键战略资源与高端材料领域 "逐步强化出口管制策略,以应对中美科技对抗的背景,并 催生出若干产业与资本市场的结构性机会 ,尤其是在"超硬材料、培育钻石、高纯石英、石墨"这四 大细分赛道。 ■ 2024年至今, ...
黄金投资热成财富焦虑场:从金荣中国看散户的“避险”迷思
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-21 09:09
2025年的黄金市场如同一场过山车式的狂欢,国际金价突破3300美元/盎司,国内足金饰品迈入千元时代,社交媒体上充斥 着菜市场大妈抢金的热搜。然而,这场看似全民参与的财富盛宴背后,却暗涌着市场波动、政策博弈与人性贪婪交织的焦 虑暗流。 一、金价疯涨与市场狂欢:避险需求还是投机泡沫? 今年4月中东地缘冲突升级、美联储降息预期升温、全球央行更是连续4个月持续囤金,多重因素推动了黄金价格屡创新 高。数据显示,国内金价年初以来涨幅超23%,黄金ETF资金净流入额超21亿元。 然而,市场喧嚣中潜伏着矛盾信号:知名机构唱多金价至3500美元的同时,CME黄金期货未平仓合约骤降15%,暗示大资 金悄然撤退。散户的避险信仰与机构的冷静离场形成鲜明对比,从而折射出市场情绪的分化。 三、财富焦虑的深层逻辑:谁在制造"黄金信仰"? 黄金热潮背后,是普通投资者对经济滞胀、货币贬值与资产缩水的集体焦虑。年轻一代通过黄金ETF、积存金等数字化工 具入场,试图在消费+投资的双重属性中寻找安全感。然而,平台与机构的推波助澜亦不可忽视: 1. 合规平台的作用:以金荣中国为例,其提供的实时行情、风控工具(如止损止盈、负余额保护),在降低交易门槛 ...
涨!涨!涨!黄金期货突破800元/克,创造历史记录!“拥有黄金者制定规则”,特朗普一句话,金价直线拉升!
雪球· 2025-04-21 07:26
长按即可参与 A股三大指数今日延续反弹态势,截止收盘,沪指涨0.45%,深证成指涨1.27%,创业板指涨1.59%。沪深两市成交额超一万亿,较上周五放量逾 千亿。 盘面上,随着黄金价格一路走高,A股黄金板块掀涨停潮,带动小金属集体走高,此外消费、跨境电商概念涨幅居前,银行板块领跌两市。 一起来看今天的热点。 01 黄金期货突破800元/克, 创造历史记录! 今日,上期所黄金期货主力合约突破800元/克关口,再创历史新高。 COMEX黄金也拿下重要整数关口3400美元/盎司。 A股黄金板块也持续攀升,赤峰黄金、 晓程科技、莱绅通灵、潮宏基、鹏欣资源强势涨停。 | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2170.13 (+191.40 +9.67%) | | | | 讨论 板块分析 | 成分股 | 相关ETF | 资讯 | | 全部(12) 连板 | 关注度 | 主力资金 | 北向净流 | | 名称 | 最新价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 市盈率 ◆ | | 晓程科技 | 21.20 | +19.98% | 124.77 | | SZ300139 | | | | | 赤峰 ...
ETF收评:黄金股票ETF领涨10.01%,港股通ETF领跌3.64%
news flash· 2025-04-21 07:03
Group 1 - The article highlights a significant surge in gold-related ETFs, with the Gold Stock ETF (517400) leading the gains at 10.01% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 100 ETF (159788) also increased by 10.01%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) rose by 10.00% [1] - Conversely, the Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (159711) experienced the largest decline at 3.64%, followed by the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (159318) which fell by 3.46%, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect 100 ETF (513900) decreased by 2.7% [1]
现货黄金冲上3390美元
news flash· 2025-04-21 06:24
现货黄金涨势不停,向上触及3390美元/盎司,持续逼近3400美元/盎司大关,日内涨超1.8%。 涨疯了!黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> ...
金价还在涨!基民涌入黄金ETF,蚂蚁基金:超760万用户开启定投
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-17 10:34
4月17日,伦敦金现货价格已站上每盎司3350美元,上海交易所上海金实时金价已超790元/克。金饰价 格也大幅飙升,有品牌足金饰品标价1027元/克,较前一日标价大涨24元/克。伴随避险情绪升温,交易 便捷灵活的黄金ETF也不断走热。据上海交易所数据,截至一季度末,国内的场内外黄金ETF规模达到 1019.88亿元,同比增长185%。蚂蚁基金公布数据显示,截至一季度末,用户平均持有黄金ETF基金的 时长达到1570天,累计超760万用户开启定投。 黄金ETF走热 在杭州打工的陈先生,4月初刚下场买的10万元黄金ETF基金,现在就赚了5000多块。陈先生很激动地 表示,"这个月房租有着落了!"陈先生的投资风格相对谨慎,4月初投资时他没有选择一次性买入,而 是在支付宝里选择进行定投,一笔是每天定投,一笔是每周一定投。 "现在国际局势变换太快,完全无法预测,但可以看到的是黄金的货币属性在增强",陈先生说,作为普 通人,没办法预判的情况下,选择用长期定投来为自己规避风险。 周女士也从年初开始定投黄金ETF,6万块本金已经赚了7500多元。她没有选择买金条,"买了后还得操 心保管安全、鉴定纯度,到时卖也是个麻烦事儿。" ...
美国国债需求下降, 转向非美避险资产
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-14 10:23
Group 1 - The U.S. bond market experienced significant volatility due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, with China announcing an increase in tariffs on U.S. imports from 84% to 125%, effective April 12 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields surged to two-month highs, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.48% and the 30-year yield at 4.85%, indicating substantial selling pressure on long-term U.S. debt [2][4] - A report indicated that countries, including China, are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, contributing to rising yields and putting pressure on the dollar [2] Group 2 - The weak demand for U.S. Treasuries may lead to further increases in yields, raising the government's financing costs, posing a new challenge for the Trump administration, which is attempting to push for interest rate cuts [5] - The decline in demand may reflect a weakening market confidence in U.S. fiscal management and economic stability, potentially exerting greater pressure on the overall financial market [5] Group 3 - Gold prices surged over $200 in just three days, reaching a new historical high, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid increasing global uncertainty [7] - The current "risk-averse" environment is prompting funds to move away from traditional assets into safe-haven instruments like gold, especially as demand for U.S. Treasuries declines [7] - From a technical perspective, gold maintains an overall bullish trend, with a key support level at the breakout point of $3167, and the next target for upward movement is around $3300, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level [8]
反弹持续性有待确认,拥抱黄金
Eddid Financial· 2025-04-14 07:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sustainability of the rebound remains to be confirmed, and it is advisable to embrace gold. The current primary contradiction is not employment and inflation but tariff policies. After a significant valuation correction, the PE has become reasonable but not undervalued. Whether corporate earnings expectations will be adjusted due to tariffs depends on the ongoing Q1 earnings reports, and whether there will be an earnings correction in the future requires further confirmation. Although the 90 - day delay in tariff implementation has provided some relief to the market, uncertainties still persist. Therefore, a defensive approach is the main strategy, and it is recommended to invest in gold, which has a hedging property [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - As of the week ending April 5, the number of initial jobless claims was 223,000, in line with the forecast, and the four - week moving average remained unchanged, indicating overall stability in the employment market. In March, the CPI was 2.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 2.5%; month - on - month, it was - 0.1%, better than the expected 0.1%. The core CPI was 2.8% year - on - year, better than the expected 3%; month - on - month, it was 0.1%, better than the expected 0.3%. In April, the preliminary reading of the 1 - year inflation expectation in the University of Michigan survey soared to 6.7%, a new high since 1981, higher than the expected 5.2% and the previous value of 5%; the preliminary reading of the 5 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.1%. The preliminary reading of the consumer confidence index was 50.8, significantly lower than the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 57 [3][8][9]. Market Sentiment - The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) reached 678.44 points, with a weekly moving average of 676.57 points, a new high since 2018, mainly due to the inconsistent tariff policies of the Trump administration, which disrupted market expectations and caused significant market fluctuations. The retail sentiment indicator compiled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed that 58.9% of US retail investors were bearish on the stock market, while 28.5% were bullish, with a bull - to - bear ratio of 0.48, an improvement from the previous value (0.35), but pessimism still prevailed. The Fear and Greed Index remained in the 'Extreme Fear' zone for three consecutive weeks, closing at 13 points; among its seven sub - indicators, only 'Junk Bond Demand' showed 'Fear', while the other six showed 'Extreme Fear' [3][16][17]. Global Market - The global equity market rose 3.4% last week, with developed markets (4.4%) outperforming emerging markets (- 3.9%), and the US stock market led the global market. Gold continued its upward trend, rising 7.2% last week, and it has been rising across all observed time frames. Bitcoin was weak, with a weekly increase of - 0.3% [3][22]. Industry Performance - Among the 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 31 rose and 5 fell. Industries such as national defense and military, non - ferrous metals, and semiconductors had relatively large increases. The absolute values of the top three gainers were much larger than those of the bottom three. Eleven secondary industries outperformed the S&P 500 index (5.7%) [24]. S&P 500 Component Stocks - Among the S&P 500 component stocks, 372 stocks rose last week, accounting for 74%, and the number of rising stocks increased significantly compared to the previous week. The top - ranked stocks in terms of gains were NEWMONT, BROADCOM, CONSTELLATION ENERGY, PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES, GE VERNOVA, etc. Among the 20 core component stocks, Broadcom led with a weekly increase of 24.4%, while ExxonMobil performed the worst with a weekly decrease of - 1.2% [26][28]. Volume and Price Indicators - The strong secondary industries were semiconductors, software services, medical equipment and services, etc. The estimated average daily capital intensity of the semiconductor industry last week was approximately $325.4 billion, ranking first. Last week, the estimated capital inflows were relatively concentrated in stocks such as NVIDIA, TESLA, and PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES [30][32]. Market Valuation - In the past week, the static PE of the S&P 500 was 24.3 times, the Bloomberg Forward PE rose slightly from 19 times to 19.8 times, an increase of 4.3%; the Bloomberg - predicted EPS decreased slightly from $268 to $266, a decrease of 0.5% [34]. Gold Industry - As of April 10, 2025, the price of the gold industry was in the range of 10.7x P/E to 19.3x P/E, at a relatively low level; the P/E in Q2 2025 is expected to rebound significantly, and the earnings per share (EPS) in Q2 2025 is expected to rebound significantly. In the short term, the gold price has shown obvious fluctuations due to tariff policies. In the long term, factors such as the expectation of more severe stagflation in the US after the tariff increase, global economic and political uncertainties, and the gold - buying demand of emerging market central banks may support the gold price [37][41].