Group 1 - The central economic meeting has a "preview" effect on the main sectors for the upcoming year, with most sectors showing excess performance within 20 trading days after the meeting [2][36] - The main sectors for the year need to meet both the "pre-selection" effect of the meeting and industrial logic, with communication, electronics, home appliances, and automobiles showing significant gains [2][36] - The report suggests that the AI sector and new consumption will be the main themes for the upcoming year, with a potential early performance in Q1 due to the DeepSeek catalyst [2][36] Group 2 - The report indicates that when the economic cycle is in the Plinger phase 2-4, stocks generally perform well, with a focus on the sustainability of M1 recovery as a key indicator [3][41] - The social financing pulse has shown a rebound, with new government bonds increasing year-on-year, while new RMB loans have turned negative [3][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external shocks, such as the US economic recession risk, as the AH market may continue to be revalued globally [3][41] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance of the AI sector, particularly with the upcoming GTC conference and the expected launch of the GB300 series, which may significantly enhance computing performance [12] - The global data center investment is projected to reach $57 billion in 2024, driven by AI demand, with a notable increase in the share of intelligent computing centers [12] - The report suggests that the demand for computing power remains strong, with a significant reduction in vacancy rates in data centers [12] Group 4 - The report discusses the strong performance of the rare earth sector, with prices steadily rising and expectations for policy support to boost confidence [21] - The report identifies strategic opportunities in the rare earth sector, particularly for companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and leading companies in the magnetic materials field [21] - The report notes that the prices of light rare earth oxides and heavy rare earth oxides have increased, indicating a tightening supply situation [21] Group 5 - The report outlines the high demand for photovoltaic materials, with a focus on the carbon fiber sector, which is expected to see continued growth due to the expansion of the renewable energy sector [22] - The report highlights the importance of electronic materials, particularly in the context of domestic substitution trends in upstream raw materials [22] - The report suggests that the wind power sector is experiencing significant growth, with a focus on the concentrated market for wind turbine blades [22]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Xiangxin Technology and TCL Technology, with specific earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [24][28]. Core Insights - The central economic meeting has a "preview" effect on the main sectors for the upcoming year, with significant performance expected in the 20 trading days following the meeting [2][36]. - The report identifies key sectors for investment in the coming year, including communication, electronics, home appliances, and automobiles, with a focus on AI and new consumption trends [2][36]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity and economic indicators, particularly M1 and long-term loans, as they are critical for determining market trends [3][41]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the economic cycle is currently in a phase where stock performance is generally positive, particularly during the recovery of M1 and long-term loans [3][41]. - It highlights that the social financing pulse has shown a rebound, with an increase in new government bonds and a notable rise in social financing stock [3][41]. Sector Performance - The report notes that sectors such as AI and new consumption are expected to lead the market, particularly following the central economic meeting [2][36]. - It also mentions that the consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, supported by low valuations and favorable policies [3][38]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the "DeepSeek" breakthrough in technology and the gradual recovery of consumer stocks as key investment strategies [2][38]. - It suggests that the market may experience fluctuations but maintains a positive outlook as long as key indicators remain above critical levels [10][38]. Market Data - The report provides market data indicating significant increases in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3419.56, reflecting a 1.81% increase [8][15]. - It also notes the performance of various sectors, with communication and electronics showing strong growth potential [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the current downturn in consumer investment, there is still optimism for emerging consumer brands, as brand establishment takes time but can lead to stable growth once achieved [2] Group 1: Company Overview - The company "参半" has evolved from a mouthwash brand to focus on toothpaste, capturing a significant market share in a competitive landscape dominated by established brands like Yunnan Baiyao and Colgate [4][5] - In 2024, "参半" is projected to surpass 2 billion in overall sales, becoming the leading brand in the online toothpaste market [4] Group 2: Market Challenges - The offline market presents significant challenges, with high entry costs and the risk of substantial losses if not managed properly [5][19] - "参半" has established over 500,000 sales terminals across more than 1,000 cities, indicating a strong offline presence that has grown to match its online sales [5][8] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The company has shifted its target demographic from primarily urban women aged 18-30 to a more diverse customer base, including children, older adults, and rural consumers [8][9] - The strategic pivot to toothpaste was planned from 2021, aiming to create a national brand rather than serving a niche market [9][11] Group 4: Marketing and Distribution - "参半" views platforms like Douyin (TikTok) primarily as advertising channels rather than direct sales platforms, leveraging them for brand awareness and customer outreach [13][15] - The brand's ability to penetrate various demographics on Douyin has contributed to its success, as toothpaste is a universally needed product [15][17] Group 5: International Expansion - "参半" is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the U.S., capitalizing on the rapid adoption of online payment methods and the demand for new consumer products [22][24] - The company aims to leverage cultural output and emotional value in its marketing strategy to resonate with local consumers in these new markets [24]

作 者丨易佳颖 编 辑丨包芳鸣 蜜雪冰城的"甜蜜事业"再攀高峰。 3月3日，蜜雪冰城股份有限公司（简称"蜜雪冰城"）在香港交易所上市。蜜雪冰城每股发行 价为2 0 2 . 5 0港元，募资净额为3 2 . 9 1亿港元。截至当日收盘，蜜雪冰城大涨4 3 . 2 1%，总市值 1 0 9 3亿港元。 无论是此前招股期间荣膺"冻资王"的盛况，还是上市首日股价的亮眼表现， 蜜雪冰城都打破 了新式茶饮企业上市即破发的魔咒，为沉寂多时的茶饮资本市场注入了一股久违的活力。 "蜜雪冰城有着鲜明的价值创造的特质，对消费者、对生态合作伙伴的普惠是蜜雪冰城创造的 最核心价值。"高瓴投资团队解释道，2 0 1 9年前后，消费市场谈论最多的，是诸如消费升级、 新消费等话题。彼时，蜜雪冰城已凭借加盟模式开设了4 0 0 0多家门店，但由于其聚焦下沉市 场，门店装修风格和产品外观并不 "高大上"，因而未受到外界的广泛关注。 "蜜雪冰城与其他茶饮品牌有着本质区别。 "在接受2 1世纪经济报道记者采访时，从打新散户 到餐饮业内人士，再到专业投资机构，多位受访者不约而同地表达了这一观点。虽然他们给 出的理由各不相同——有的强调其完善的供应链体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities for new consumer companies, particularly in the context of their IPOs in Hong Kong versus A-shares, highlighting the increasing trend of companies like Mixue Ice City choosing to list in Hong Kong due to stricter regulations in the A-share market [1][16][21]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 18.58% this year, with Hong Kong consumer ETFs increasing by 29.41%, indicating a strong market for new consumer companies [2][3]. - In 2024, several new consumer brands have flocked to the Hong Kong stock market for IPOs, with significant interest leading to high stock prices [3][11]. - Mixue Ice City achieved a record-breaking IPO subscription with a funding amount of HKD 1.77 trillion and a subscription multiple of 5125 times, marking it as a "frozen capital king" [5][8]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The tightening of IPO regulations in the A-share market has led to a significant decrease in the number of companies going public, with only 100 IPOs in 2024 compared to 313 in 2023, a drop of 68.05% [13][14]. - New consumer companies face significant barriers to listing in A-shares, categorized as "restricted" due to their low industry barriers [16][21]. - The Hong Kong stock market offers more lenient IPO conditions, making it an attractive option for new consumer companies [17][18]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - The demand for private equity funds to exit their investments is a driving factor for companies like Mixue Ice City to pursue IPOs despite having sufficient capital [23][24]. - The average time from initial application to listing in Hong Kong is 393 days, with some companies completing the process in as little as 103 days [22]. - The trend of new consumer companies listing in Hong Kong has become a "new normal" due to the favorable regulatory environment and government support [21][19]. Group 4: Market Challenges - Despite the high subscription rates for IPOs, liquidity in the Hong Kong market remains a concern, with average daily trading volumes significantly lower than those in the A-share market [28][29]. - Some companies have opted for privatization due to the lack of trading liquidity in the Hong Kong market, indicating potential challenges for newly listed firms [30][31]. - The article highlights that even popular companies can experience volatility in stock prices post-IPO, with examples of companies facing low trading volumes despite high initial interest [32].

编辑丨钱杨 回顾创立 MAIA ACTIVE 的九年时间，欧逸柔脑中的画面是，"满地闪亮亮的碎屑"。她是新消费时期少数 成功的创业者之一，做出了某些层面可以挑战巨头的产品与品牌。2023 年，她决定将品牌卖给理想买家安 踏，收获了她能想象的最好结局。 一个关于创业和创伤的故事。 文丨朱丽琨 创业最后两年，她感觉到 MAIA 作为独立品牌生存前景会很难。卖掉公司让她如释重负，但又很伤感。 如今，欧逸柔觉得自己看得更清楚了：当时做对了什么，做错了什么，在哪里释放了最多的热情，又迷失 于什么。 她和品牌完整经历了没人投消费、所有机构疯狂投消费、再到热潮退却的全过程，"新消费最疯狂那几 年，所有人都不正常。" 比如，每年都在寻找拐点式增长，没有两倍增长不好意思对外说，"处在一种魔怔 的状态里"。 除此之外，她还有自己的问题需要理出头绪。"我其实不知道说这些大家会怎么看，会不会觉得，你都财 务自由了，还在这说什么呢？但创业时的创伤还没有解决。" 欧逸柔说。 12 月的一天，上海安福路，一间干净明亮、宽敞安静的白色屋子里，欧逸柔准备好回忆。她家中点缀着不 少鲜亮颜色的装饰品、家具，那些跳动的色彩让人想起 MAIA 产品的 ...

2 泽平宏观 下 深圳人才集团 S = 2 = 1 = 1 = 1 = 1 = 萬出友 2025|毕典经济 年 甘泽亚 波 秀 倒 坛 日本 0 1 2024年全力拼经济，拉开新一轮经济提振计划的序幕，宏观政策全面转向友好，优化房地产调 控，活跃资本市场，财政政策积极，货币政策宽松，提振信心，凝聚共识。 泽平宏观 在这个巨变的时代，光有勤奋还不够，比勤奋更重要的是顺势而为。 不要用战术上的勤奋，掩 盖战略上的懒惰。 2024 年即将过去了， 12 月 20 日，我将在改革开放的前沿阵地——深圳，和大家一起展望 2025 年，未来将有哪些新趋势？发生什么大事件？诞生哪些新机遇？ 泽平宏观/诚邀您参与 【 点燃希望 再出发2025中国经济十大预测 】 活动相关调研，本问卷共 9 问，希望您能抽出几分钟时间，将您的关切告诉我们。 12 月 20 日 19:00 ， 我们将在改革开放的前沿阵地——【深圳】与您一起讨论、分享， 共赴点燃希望： 再出发2025中国经 济十大预测 感谢您的参与,投票结果将于12.31公布，参与投票并分享本文至朋友圈，添加课程助理，即可参与点 燃希望, 再出发 2025 中国经济十大预测 福 ...