2024年，A股银行股上演了一出惊心动魄的"财富大戏"。 曾经被公募基金冷落，常年低配的银行股，如 今却成为机构争相追逐的"香饽饽"，股价扶摇直上，甚至创下历史新高。 农业银行、建设银行股价屡 创新高，工商银行市值逼近3万亿，稳坐A股"一哥"宝座。 这背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的秘密？ 外资的谨慎态度与内资的狂热形成鲜明对比。北向资金在四大行股价创新高之际选择反手减持，这一幕 与2023年"中特估"行情中内资拉高、外资撤退的景象如出一辙，预示着潜在的风险。 而保险资金，无 疑是这波行情中当之无愧的绝对主力。2025年一季度，险资重仓A股银行股市值高达2657.8亿元，占其 股票持仓的45%；仅恒生金融指数前七大银行股，险资持仓就超过5600亿元，占流通市值的58%！ 平安 人寿更是凶悍，半年内七次举牌农行、邮储等H股，对招行H股的持股比例甚至飙升至15%。 中央汇金 一季度通过沪深300ETF间接加仓银行股5.02亿份，社保基金也紧盯常熟银行等优质标的。 港股通资金 也参与其中，6月份从腾讯、阿里等科技股撤出400亿港元，迅速转向银行股，上演了一场"乾坤大挪 移"。 然而，保险资金的疯狂举牌背后，还隐藏着另一个关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital has been actively acquiring shares in listed companies, with 19 instances recorded in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong demand for stable investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The companies favored by insurance capital are primarily in sectors such as banking, environmental protection, transportation, and public utilities, characterized by low valuations and substantial dividend payouts [2][10]. - The shift in investment strategy reflects a broader trend of long-term funds moving from fixed-income assets to equity markets due to declining long-term interest rates [7][10]. - High dividend stocks are regaining investor attention as they provide stable cash flow and lower price volatility compared to other equity assets [7][10]. Group 2: Dividend Strategy - The diversity of dividend strategies is evident, with companies opting for either high dividend payouts or more cost-effective dividend distributions [3][4]. - High dividend-paying companies are typically found in mature industries, where growth opportunities are limited, leading to a focus on returning profits to shareholders [5][10]. - The China Securities Dividend Index, which tracks the top 100 high dividend stocks in A-shares, currently shows an overall dividend yield of approximately 5.5%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.67% [9][10]. Group 3: Central Enterprises and Market Dynamics - Insurance capital is increasingly targeting Hong Kong-listed central enterprises, which exhibit stable earnings and high dividend yields [16][21]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has historically been lower than that of A-shares, making them more attractive from a dividend yield perspective [17][18]. - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) has a dividend yield of 7.94%, even after accounting for a 20% dividend tax, outperforming similar A-share assets [21][28]. Group 4: Policy and Management Improvements - Recent improvements in the management efficiency of central enterprises, driven by policies such as the inclusion of cash dividends in market value management metrics, have led to a systematic revaluation of these companies [27][28]. - The proportion of institutional investors in central enterprises has increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, indicating growing confidence in these entities [26]. Group 5: Strategic Insights - The investment behavior of insurance capital mirrors that of Berkshire Hathaway, focusing on stable, high-dividend yielding assets that are essential to the economy [31][33]. - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) is positioned as an optimal choice for investors seeking to benefit from both dividend income and the potential gains from central enterprise reforms [34].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has been experiencing significant growth, with the China Securities Banking Index outperforming both gold and the Nasdaq 100 since the beginning of 2024, indicating its status as a high-yield asset globally [2]. Group 1: Reasons for Banking Sector Growth - The banking sector's rise is attributed to multiple factors, including high dividends, improved return on equity (ROE), and substantial inflows from passive index funds, particularly in the context of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [6][10]. - The valuation recovery is a key driver, as the price-to-book (PB) ratio has decreased faster than ROE from 2021 to 2023, suggesting significant room for valuation correction [11]. - The introduction of policies to alleviate real estate financing pressures has reduced systemic risk concerns, thereby improving the asset quality outlook for banks [14]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - By the end of 2024, core institutional investors, including active public funds, passive funds, insurance capital, and northbound funds, held 23.9% of the free-floating market value of bank stocks [18]. - Passive funds and northbound capital have been the primary contributors to the increased holdings in banking stocks, with active funds also showing a trend of rising positions [19]. Group 3: Evolution of Dividend Investment Logic - The past few years have seen a shift in investment logic towards high-dividend assets, which have provided a psychological safety net for investors amid declining interest rates [23]. - The performance of dividend assets has shown resilience, particularly during market downturns, with banking and non-banking sectors demonstrating relative stability [29]. - The relationship between dividend yield and stock price movements is expected to evolve, with a growing emphasis on the sustainability of dividends based on free cash flow rather than solely on historical yields [31][34]. Group 4: Free Cash Flow as a New Investment Strategy - Free cash flow is identified as a critical metric for assessing a company's ability to sustain dividends, with a focus on the stability and growth potential of earnings [35]. - The development of the National Free Cash Flow Index has provided a new tool for investors, emphasizing the importance of free cash flow in selecting high-quality stocks [41]. - Historical performance data indicates that the free cash flow index has outperformed traditional dividend indices, highlighting its effectiveness as an investment strategy [42][47].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Capital Flows of Exchange-Traded Index Funds [1] - Data Date: June 30, 2025 - July 4, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Jin Ling [1] - Report Date: July 8, 2025 [1] Core Content Domestic Passive Stock Funds - **Composite and Industry Themes**: Different concepts have varying fund sizes, weekly price changes, and net weekly capital inflows. For example, the SSE 50 has a fund size of 159.456 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.41%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 2.765 billion yuan; the large technology concept has a fund size of 216.688 billion yuan, a weekly decrease of 0.32%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 6.066 billion yuan [4]. - **Style Strategies and Other Categories**: Similar to the above, different concepts show different performance. For instance, the dividend low - volatility concept has a fund size of 43.535 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.82%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 1.419 billion yuan [4]. Overseas - Related Funds - **Composite and Industry Themes**: Concepts like the Nasdaq 100 have a fund size of 78.421 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 0.032 billion yuan; the Hong Kong stock technology concept has a fund size of 92.609 billion yuan, a weekly decrease of 2.43%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 2.88 billion yuan [5]. - **Style Strategies**: The dividend concept has a fund size of 126.9 million yuan, a weekly increase of 0.99%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 0.0016 billion yuan; the dividend low - volatility concept has a fund size of 77.7 million yuan, a weekly increase of 1.26%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 0.00154 billion yuan [5]. Other Investment Types - **Bonds**: Different maturities and types of bonds have different performances. For example, 30 - year bonds have a fund size of 8.969 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 0.18%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 0.0257 billion yuan; convertible bonds have a fund size of 43.859 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 0.0098 billion yuan [6]. - **Commodities**: Gold has a fund size of 70.887 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.13%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 2.252 billion yuan; energy and chemical products have a fund size of 293 million yuan, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 0.0093 billion yuan [6]. - **Index Enhancement**: Different index - related concepts also show different trends. For example, the SSE 50 index - enhanced concept has a fund size of 76 million yuan, a weekly increase of 2.55%, and no net weekly capital inflow or outflow [6].

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：山水Alex 来源：雪球 （ 2 ） 利率大环境 。 西方经济学教材经常提到股市跟利率有很大的相关性 ， 其实在A股这规 律几乎是失灵的 ， 为什么 ？ 因为A股缺长线资金 。 A股的参与者90%以上都是散户 ， 大部分 公募的思路也是偏短期化的 ， 真正有长期资金属性的 ， 也是最近这几年才开始出现 。 不是说保险是长线资金吗 ， 当然不是 ， 保险是这几年才开始皈依长期投资的 ， 之前保险做波 段做的比公募还欢乐 ， 赚不赚钱不知道 ， 但肯定没在股市赚到大钱 ， 那这几年险资为什么老 实了 ， 主要是因为利率大环境 、 资产的可得性 。 险资的资金运营 ， 几年前跟目前有着巨大 的差异 ， 目前50%以上资金配置是债券资产 ， 10-15%的股票和权益类基金 ， 还有其他存款 、 流动性资金啥的 ， 非标资产和房地产类的占比已经非常低 。 以前投资债券占比可能只有 30%左右 ， 股票10%左右 ， 还会有各种非标资产 、 房地产投资等比债券收益率更高的资产可 以挑选 。 但这几年被市场教育后 ， 非标已经非常少 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the special valuation system in China is a response to the breakdown of the original global output and capital circulation, reflecting a long-term change in economic development models [2][21] - Recent trends show that U.S. manufacturing capital expenditure continues to slow down, leading to a potential stagnation in the capacity cycle, while the employment situation in the manufacturing sector is deteriorating [2][7] - Short-term fiscal support from China is expected, with mid-term exports likely to exceed expectations, and long-term consumption is anticipated to continue its recovery [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the spread of dividends towards low price-to-book (PB) ratios is a sign of rising market risk appetite, indicating a waiting period for economic recovery [2][21] - The long-term trend of rising return on equity (ROE) suggests a revaluation of Chinese assets, with large-cap stocks trading at a premium and small-cap stocks at a discount as a result of the economic development model [2][21] - The report expresses optimism towards core asset styles, including low PB industries, large financials, and sectors such as gold, energy, and non-ferrous metals, while also advising caution regarding micro-cap risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the weekly capital flow and performance data of various types of trading - index funds from June 16, 2025, to June 20, 2025, including domestic passive stock funds, overseas - related funds, bond funds, commodity funds, and index - enhanced funds [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Passive Stock Funds - **Fund Scale and Performance**: The scale of different concept funds varies greatly, such as the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 fund with a scale of 9834.49 billion yuan, while the State - owned Enterprise Reform fund has a scale of only 0.61 billion yuan. The weekly price changes also differ, with the ChiNext Index rising by 5.61% and the Public Utilities rising by only 0.65%. The net weekly capital inflows and outflows are also diverse, with the A500 fund having a net inflow of 75.70 billion yuan and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 fund having a net outflow of 71.25 billion yuan [4] Overseas - related Funds - **Fund Scale and Performance**: For overseas - related funds, the Nasdaq 100 fund has a scale of 784.21 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.68% and a net capital outflow of 10.53 billion yuan. The Hong Kong Stock Medical fund has a scale of 272.31 billion yuan, with a 2.24% increase and a net capital inflow of 13.37 billion yuan [5] Bond Funds - **Fund Scale and Performance**: Among bond funds, the 30 - year bond fund has a scale of 89.69 billion yuan, with a - 0.33% change and a net capital outflow of 16.93 billion yuan. The convertible bond fund has a scale of 438.59 billion yuan, with a 1.97% increase and a net capital inflow of 24.94 billion yuan [6] Commodity Funds - **Fund Scale and Performance**: In commodity funds, the gold fund has a scale of 708.87 billion yuan, with a - 1.49% change and a net capital inflow of 14.52 billion yuan. The energy - chemical fund has a scale of 2.93 billion yuan, with a - 4.15% change and a net capital outflow of 0.12 billion yuan [6] Index - enhanced Funds - **Fund Scale and Performance**: For index - enhanced funds, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index - enhanced fund has a scale of 32.09 billion yuan, with a 1.82% increase and a net capital outflow of 5.18 billion yuan. The CSI 1000 index - enhanced fund has a scale of 6.56 billion yuan, with a 4.58% increase and a net capital inflow of 0.24 billion yuan [6]

Report Overview - The report presents the top ten convertible bonds for July 2025, along with an analysis of the issuing companies [1][2][11] Company Summaries 1. Zhongte Convertible Bond (Zhongte Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 109.399 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 108.66%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 11.5 [5][11] - Company is a global leader in special steel manufacturing with a production capacity of about 20 million tons. It has a complete industrial chain and multiple production bases [11][12] - In 2024, revenue was 109.203 billion yuan (down 4.22% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.126 billion yuan (down 10.41% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 26.84 billion yuan (down 5.59% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.384 billion yuan (up 1.76% YoY) [11] - Company highlights: largest variety - specification range, leading cost - control, and potential expansion through asset injection [12] 2. Shanlu Convertible Bond (Shanlu Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 113.766 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 50.91%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 3.9 [5][20] - Company focuses on road and bridge construction and maintenance, with a comprehensive business system [20] - In 2024, revenue was 71.348 billion yuan (down 2.3% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.322 billion yuan (up 1.47% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 9.764 billion yuan (up 1.95% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.249 billion yuan (up 1.89% YoY) [20] - Company highlights: state - owned background, potential in debt - resolution, local infrastructure opportunities, and overseas expansion [21] 3. Jintong Convertible Bond (Jintong Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA+; 6 - month - end closing price: 128.025 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 5.74%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 20.7 [5][31] - Company engages in non - ferrous metal processing, providing materials for emerging industries [31] - In 2024, revenue was 124.161 billion yuan (up 12.36% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.462 billion yuan (down 12.29% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 27.285 billion yuan (up 9.89% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.151 billion yuan (up 38.55% YoY) [31] - Company highlights: rebound in copper processing, growth in rare - earth permanent magnets, and expansion in electromagnetic flat wire business [32] 4. Aima Convertible Bond (Aima Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA; 6 - month - end closing price: 123.919 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 37.61%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 14.1 [5][40] - Company is a leading player in the electric two - wheeler industry [40] - In 2024, revenue was 21.606 billion yuan (up 2.71% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.988 billion yuan (up 5.68% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 6.232 billion yuan (up 25.82% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.605 billion yuan (up 25.12% YoY) [40] - Company highlights: subsidy - driven demand, new national standard benefits, and potential margin improvement [41] 5. Xingye Convertible Bond (Xingye Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 124.495 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 13.03%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 6.4 [5][52] - Company is a large - scale joint - stock commercial bank with multiple financial licenses [52] - In 2024, revenue was 212.226 billion yuan (up 0.66% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.205 billion yuan (up 0.12% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 55.683 billion yuan (down 3.58% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.796 billion yuan (down 2.22% YoY) [52] - Company highlights: stable growth in net interest income, stable asset quality, and expanding scale [53] 6. Youfa Convertible Bond (Youfa Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA; 6 - month - end closing price: 126.782 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 6.47%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 14.7 [5][64] - Company is the largest welded steel pipe manufacturer in China [64] - In 2024, revenue was 54.822 billion yuan (down 10.01% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.425 billion yuan (down 25.46% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 11.402 billion yuan (up 6.06% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.133 billion yuan (up 9680.17% YoY) [64] - Company highlights: national layout, overseas market expansion, and high dividend policy [65] 7. Chongyin Convertible Bond (Chongyin Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 125.956 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 12.15%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 7.3 [5][77] - Company is a regional joint - stock commercial bank in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River [77] - In 2024, revenue was 13.679 billion yuan (up 3.54% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.117 billion yuan (up 3.8% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 3.581 billion yuan (up 5.3% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.624 billion yuan (up 5.33% YoY) [77] - Company highlights: regional economic development opportunities, asset scale growth, and strategic risk management [78] 8. Baidian Convertible Bond (Baidian Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA; 6 - month - end closing price: 131.325 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 2.85%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 24.3 [5][88] - Company is a high - tech enterprise in power distribution equipment [88] - In 2024, revenue was 4.985 billion yuan (up 15.12% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.196 billion yuan (up 79.05% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 0.976 billion yuan (up 4.68% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.037 billion yuan (up 11.47% YoY) [88] - Company highlights: improving profitability and strong order backlog [89] 9. Huayuan Convertible Bond (Huayuan Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AA -; 6 - month - end closing price: 129.19 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 14.24%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 26.3 [5][101] - Company focuses on the vitamin D3 industrial chain [101] - In 2024, revenue was 1.243 billion yuan (up 13.58% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.309 billion yuan (up 60.76% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 0.326 billion yuan (down 1.18% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.097 billion yuan (up 5.5% YoY) [101] - Company highlights: leading products in the industry, product expansion, and new drug approvals [102] 10. Yushui Convertible Bond (Yushui Zhuanzhai) - Bond Rating: AAA; 6 - month - end closing price: 124.888 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 30.54%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 26.6 [5][112] - Company is the largest water supply and drainage enterprise in Chongqing [112] - In 2024, revenue was 6.999 billion yuan (down 3.52% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.785 billion yuan (down 27.88% YoY). In Q1 2025, revenue was 1.652 billion yuan (up 8.66% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.237 billion yuan (up 28.91% YoY) [112] - Company highlights: stable local business, market expansion, and cost control [113]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to exhibit a "volatile upward + structural differentiation" pattern in the second half of the year [4][24]. - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong resilience in the first half of the year, driven by multiple factors including domestic monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and significant inflows of southbound capital exceeding 700 billion HKD [17][19]. - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive compared to other major markets, with the Hang Seng Index's forecasted P/E ratio for 2025 at 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2% [21][22]. Group 2 - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year are expected to focus on technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend assets, driven by policy support and technological advancements [27][30]. - The technology sector, particularly AI commercialization and capital expenditure expansion, is anticipated to drive earnings for internet giants, while the healthcare sector is expected to benefit from policy relaxations and international strategies [28][31]. - The consumption sector, including new consumer trends and brands, is also highlighted as having strong resilience and growth potential due to ongoing domestic consumption recovery [31][32]. Group 3 - The market is likely to experience a structural shift with a focus on high-quality growth companies, particularly in technology and innovative sectors, as well as low-valuation assets in cyclical industries [25][32]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve with continued inflows of southbound capital and a potential increase in foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks [24][25]. - The anticipated economic recovery and supportive macro policies are expected to further enhance the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the latter half of the year [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to exhibit a "volatile upward + structural differentiation" pattern in the second half of the year, driven by macroeconomic policies, technological innovation, and domestic demand recovery [4][25][26]. Group 1: Market Performance in H1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong resilience in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index nearly 20%, leading global markets [2][16]. - Multiple factors contributed to this performance, including domestic monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and a significant net inflow of over 700 billion HKD from southbound funds [16][18]. - The market experienced two major rallies, driven by technological advancements and a recovery in investor sentiment following geopolitical tensions [17][19]. Group 2: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - Despite the recovery, the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive compared to historical averages, with the Hang Seng Index's forecasted P/E ratio at 11 times and P/B ratio at 1.2 times [21][22]. - The market is characterized by a "funding boom + asset scarcity" structural trend, with high dividend yield sectors like banking and utilities showing strong performance [10][22]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and technological advancements [28][30][31]. Group 3: Outlook for H2 - The market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by policy measures aimed at economic recovery and the ongoing influx of capital [25][26]. - Structural opportunities are expected to emerge in technology and healthcare sectors, with significant growth potential in AI and innovative drug development [24][32]. - The investment focus will likely shift towards growth-oriented industries, with an emphasis on high-quality technology assets and emerging consumer sectors [14][28][33].