据新华社，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法 治国工作条例》。 对于如何做好明年的经济工作，会议提出一些重要表述，包括"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争""实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策""持续扩大内需、优化供给"等，并提出八项"坚持"的重点工作。多位受访专家表 示，明年经济增长转型诉求不减，政策需要兼顾短期与长远，内需将继续发挥助力经济总体回升向好的"助推 器"作用，并坚持以开放促改革促发展，重点领域风险化解将更加积极稳妥。 延续"更加积极有为"取向，明年加大逆周期与跨周期力度 今年以来，我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，支持实体经济发展力度加大，推动经济持续回升向好。根据中 央政治局会议部署，"十五五"开局之年，我国宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不变，继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策。同时，明年将加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 "继续实施"今年的财政、货币政策取向，不仅意味着明年政策将保持连续性、稳定性，营造出稳定的宏观政策 环境，还意味着明年政策力度依然可期，将坚持支持性的政策立场。 报道组记者：贺觉渊 韩忠楠 郭博昊 秦燕玲 程丹 从 ...

·投资要点 · 本次会议保持了"更加积极有为"的宏观政策定调，同时更加注重"提质增效"，扩大内需和民 生仍是重点任务，关注后续中央经济工作会议具体政策部署。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议通稿内容精炼，奠定 了"内需主导，提质增效"的总基调，更多具体政策的增量信息需关注后续召开的中央经济工 作会议。 总体来看，会议通稿体现出三大特征： ✔一是，内需置于工作任务首位，"坚持内需主导"也是对"十五五"规划建议提出"促进形成更 多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式"的有效落实。 具体政策抓手有望在12月 中央经济工作会议中披露更多信息。 ✔ 二是，宏观政策保持"更加积极有为"的定调，同时更加注重提升政策有效性。政策取向 上，货币政策延续了"适度宽松"的表述。 二十届四中全会提出"构建科学稳健的货币政策体系 和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系"，更多意味着政策调控范式的深化，从"逆周期"到"跨周期与 逆周期"并重，并不一定是短期政策取向的"稳健"。 财政政策需在积极和可持续之间精准施 策， 预计2026年狭义财政赤字率在4%左右，新增地方专项债预计发行4.6万亿左右，超长期 特 ...

全面布局'十五五' 2025 年 12 月政治局会议学习体会 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 8 日 相关研究报告 《宏观和大类资产配置周报》20251207 《策略周报》20251207 《债市测试'平衡边界'》20251207 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 政治局会议表示，2025 年'经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现'，以及 ''十四五'即将圆满收官'。我们认为 2025 年实际 GDP 增速大概率 能够完成 5%的年初设定目标。 2026 年，'更加积极有为的宏观政策'将延续。 从工作思路和政策措施看： 一是'增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性'，与 2024 年 12 月政治局会议措 ...

Core Viewpoint - The December Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable yet progressive approach to economic work in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to enhance resource allocation efficiency [1][6][21]. Economic Goals and Policy Framework - The meeting highlights the need to continue expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, aiming for both qualitative and quantitative growth in the economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][21]. - The overall policy framework for 2026 will maintain a proactive stance, with a focus on enhancing the quality and effectiveness of development, alongside a more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [2][8][22]. Industry Policy Deployment - The meeting outlines a clear path for industry planning in 2026, prioritizing domestic demand and innovation, which will benefit sectors such as consumer goods, AI, digital economy, and new energy [3][10][24]. - Emphasis is placed on reform, opening up, and coordinated development to enhance high-quality growth, benefiting state-owned enterprises and infrastructure-related sectors [3][10][24]. Implications for A-Share Investment - The meeting provides initial guidance for economic work in 2026, focusing on domestic demand, innovation, and reform, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and boost confidence in the A-share market [4][17][26]. - Upcoming central economic work meetings are anticipated to detail specific fiscal, monetary, and industrial measures, further activating market vitality [4][17][26]. Investment Focus Areas - The current policy window indicates a clearer structural focus for 2026, with attention on new productive forces such as AI, renewable energy, and quantum technology, alongside recovery paths for manufacturing and resource sectors [12][26]. - The consumer sector is expected to see a favorable investment environment due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, while the trend of companies expanding overseas will enhance profit potential [12][26].

策略点评 2025 年 12 月 8 日 稳中有进谋开局，法治护航启新程 事件： 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国 共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。 主要政策解读： （1）政策基调：稳中求进筑牢发展根基。会议提出"实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策"，并特别强调增强政策的"前瞻性、针对性、协同性"。这预示着 未来宏观调控将更注重政策组合拳的效能，财政、货币、产业、科技等政策 将加强协调配合，旨在精准滴灌实体经济特别是薄弱环节与重点领域，避免 政策空转，切实提升宏观治理效能。 （2）多维协同的政策体系，聚焦质效双升。八大坚持构建了覆盖供需两端的 政策体系，内需主导与创新驱动聚焦经济增长动能转换，改革攻坚与对外开 放着力破解制度性障碍，双碳引领与协调发展优化区域和产业布局，民生保 障与风险防控则筑牢社会稳定底线。 （3）制度固本，夯实治国理政根基。会议审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治 国工作条例》，核心价值在于将党领导全面依法治国的实践经验上升为制度 化规范，实现科学化、制度化、规范化三重提升，展现了党中央推进国家治 理体系和治理能力现代化的坚定决心与清晰路径。 总结 ...

中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 定调"十五五"开局之年的经济工作，这场会议极为重要，传递出三个有力信号。 信号一：内需主导 三里河注意到，在2026年经济工作具体部署中，"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"居于重要位置。为 何？ 2013—2024年中国经济保持年均6.1%的增长，内需对经济增长的平均贡献率达93.1%。 清华大学中国发展规划研究院常务副院长董煜对三里河表示，这表明有效需求不足仍是当前短期经济工 作需破解的主要问题，需通过纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、打造强大国内市场加以解决。 作为拉动经济增长的主动力，内需之于中国经济非常重要。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒对三里河表示，解决好内需不足、建设强大市场，不仅能更好实现更高水 平的供需循环，而且有利于改善外部地缘政治经济关系，更是增强中国经济稳定性、对冲外部不确定性 的重要力量。 信号二：提质增效 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。 "稳中求进"作为经济工作总基调延续不变，而"提质增效"四字，蕴含着发展导向的深化。 董煜认为，这意味着开局之年将坚定推进高质量发展这一主题的贯彻落实，同时在政策实施中会更加注 ...

核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-80927696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 王雪莹 策略研究 · 策略点评 12 月中央政治局会议对投资的启示 2025 年 12 月 08 日 ：wangxueying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060003 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 孔玥 ：kongyue_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525100001 相关研究 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，公募基金三季度持仓有哪些看点？ 2025-10-30，2025 年 11 月投资组合报告："十五 五"新蓝图与市场新机遇 2025-10-29，变局蕴机遇，驶向新蓝海——《"十五 五"规划建议》解码 A 股投资全景图 2025-10-22，布局消费主题 ...

会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强 高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联 动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in November shows a slight recovery to 49.2%, indicating improvements in both domestic and overseas demand, although it remains in a contraction zone for the eighth consecutive month [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The November PMI reflects improvements in 11 sub-indices, including new orders and production expectations, with a composite PMI output index at 49.7%, suggesting overall economic stability [2][5]. - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, while the production index rose to the critical point of 50.0%, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction [5][6]. Policy Impact - Recent government policies, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds, are expected to stimulate domestic market demand and infrastructure investment [5][8]. - The positive outcomes from recent US-China trade talks have also contributed to a marginal increase in export orders, with the new export orders index rising by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the largest increase in six months [5][6]. Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing sectors continue to show strong demand, with their PMIs remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, while traditional energy-intensive industries are still in contraction [6]. - Specific industries such as agricultural processing and non-ferrous metal smelting are experiencing active demand, whereas sectors like petroleum and chemical manufacturing are lagging [6][7]. Price Trends - The main raw material price index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating ongoing expansion since the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [7]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to see a slight month-on-month increase, although year-on-year comparisons may still reflect a decline due to higher base effects from the previous year [7][8]. Future Outlook - The construction PMI is anticipated to rise into the expansion zone as the effects of the new policy financial tools and special bonds materialize [8]. - The overall industrial product prices remain subdued, influenced by weak consumer demand and declining real estate investments, with the long-term effects of "anti-involution" policies on prices still under observation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for qualitative and effective economic growth, promoting comprehensive human development and common prosperity, ensuring decisive progress towards socialist modernization [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The plan highlights the importance of forming an economic development model driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth, which is a strategic decision for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][10]. - A significant focus is placed on improving the income distribution system to support a consumption-driven growth model, which is crucial for achieving modernization in the Chinese context [3][11]. - The plan sets a target for per capita GDP to reach approximately $23,000 by 2035, requiring an average nominal growth of around 5% annually over the next decade [4]. Group 2: Principles for Economic and Social Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines six essential principles for economic and social development, including the necessity of the Party's comprehensive leadership, which is fundamental for achieving modernization [7][8]. - Emphasizing a people-centered approach, the plan aims to meet the growing needs of the populace while expanding development opportunities [7]. - High-quality development is identified as the primary task, focusing on innovation-driven growth and enhancing domestic consumption [8]. Group 3: Income Distribution and Employment - The plan stresses the importance of fair income distribution and increasing residents' income as a prerequisite for expanding consumption and meeting the people's needs [11][12]. - New policies are proposed to create an employment-friendly development model, ensuring that income growth aligns with economic growth [11]. - The introduction of a "Rural and Urban Residents' Income Increase Plan" is highlighted as a significant initiative to enhance the financial well-being of the population [12].