（原标题：日本将迎来首位女首相） 【导读】高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁，预计将成为史上首名女性日本首相 中国基金报晨曦综合整理 大家好！来一起关注日本政坛最新消息。 据新华社，日本前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗在10月4日举行的自民党总裁选举中胜出，当选自民 党第29任总裁。新总裁任期将延续石破茂的剩余任期，至2027年9月届满。 根据当前日本国会席位情况，她极大概率将会在预计10月15日举行的临时国会上被选为新一任日本首 相，届时她将成为历史上首名女性日本首相。 据悉，参加此次选举的有5位参选人，除了高市早苗还有自民党前干事长茂木敏充、现任内阁官房长官 林芳正、农林水产大臣小泉进次郎以及前经济安全保障担当大臣小林鹰之。 公开信息显示，高市早苗（日文名：，英文名：Takaichi Sanae），女，1961年3月7日出生于日本奈良 县，毕业于神户大学经营学部，近畿大学经济学部教授。 2012年，安倍晋三首次出任首相后大量选用女性政治家，高市早苗正是代表之一。在经济主张方面，她 被认为是"安倍经济学"的继承者，提出通过减税措施降低企业与个人负担，并计划发放现金补贴以刺激 消费和经济增长。 今年9月，日本央行"按兵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to lead Japan's economic policies to revert to the "Abenomics" era, potentially increasing government spending and boosting the stock market [1][2][6]. Group 1: Election Details - Sanae Takaichi won the LDP presidential election, becoming the first female prime minister of Japan, after securing a majority in the second round of voting [2]. - The election had five candidates, with Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi leading in the first round but neither surpassing 50%, leading to a runoff [2]. - The current prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, announced his resignation, paving the way for Takaichi's election [2]. Group 2: Background of Sanae Takaichi - Takaichi, born in 1961 in Nara Prefecture, comes from a modest background, contrasting with many politicians from political families [4]. - She has a diverse career, including working as a television host and music creator before entering politics in 1992 [4]. - Takaichi has been involved in significant political roles since 2002, aligning closely with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policies, earning her the nickname "female Abe" [5]. Group 3: Economic Policies - Takaichi advocates for maintaining monetary easing and expansionary fiscal policies, positioning herself as a successor to Abenomics [6]. - She has proposed reducing the food consumption tax from 8% to zero and has expressed opposition to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [6]. - Analysts predict that her victory could lead to a depreciation of the yen, although some expect the yen to strengthen if U.S. economic data weakens [6]. Group 4: Foreign Policy and Political Stance - Takaichi plans to continue a hardline foreign policy, including the establishment of a "National Intelligence Agency" for enhanced diplomatic and security information gathering [7]. - Despite her ambitions, she has faced criticism for not advocating for women's rights and holding conservative views on family roles [7]. - Takaichi has attempted to soften her hardline image, presenting herself as a moderate conservative focused on economic strategies [7].

据悉，参加此次选举的有 5 位参选人，除了高市早苗还有自民党前干事长茂木敏充、现任内 阁官房长官林芳正、农林水产大臣小泉进次郎以及前经济安全保障担当大臣小林鹰之。 公开信息显示，高市早苗（日文名：たかいちさなえ，英文名： Takaichi Sanae ），女， 1961 年 3 月 7 日出生于日本奈良县，毕业于神户大学经营学部，近畿大学经济学部教授。 2012 年，安倍晋三首次出任首相后大量选用女性政治家，高市早苗正是代表之一。在经济主 张方面，她被认为是 " 安倍经济学 " 的继承者，提出通过减税措施降低企业与个人负担，并 计划发放现金补贴以刺激消费和经济增长。 今年 9 月，日本央行 " 按兵不动 " ，维持基准利率 0.5% 不变。此前，日本前央行高级官 员下田知行表示，即使是支持激进宽松货币政策的高市早苗赢得执政党党首选举并出任新首 相，日本央行仍有可能最快在 10 月加息。 【导读】高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁，预计将成为史上首名女性日本首相 中国基金报 晨曦 综合整理 大家好！来一起关注日本政坛最新消息。 据新华社，日本前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗在 10 月 4 日举行的自民党总裁选举中胜 出 ...

在经济主张方面，她被认为是"安倍经济学"的继承者，提出通过减税措施降低企业与个人负担，并计划发放现金补贴以刺激消费和经济增长。 日本执政党自由民主党总裁选举于10月4日举行，最终64岁的高市早苗胜出。 10月15日，日本政府和自民党将召集临时国会，进行新首相指名选举。届时高市早苗将组建新内阁。 高市早苗在早期被称为"日本版撒切尔夫人"。有分析指出，她的胜选象征意义重大，但同时强硬风格可能导致自民党与公明党的执政联盟解体，在野党合作 意愿低。 高市早苗出生于奈良县，毕业于神户大学经营学部，后任近畿大学经济学部教授，还曾在朝日电视台、富士电视台担任新闻节目主持人。她的丈夫是自民党 议员山本拓，两人共领养了2个孩子。 2012年，安倍晋三首次出任首相后大量选用女性政治家，高市早苗便这些"安倍女孩"的代表，多次担任总务大臣。 自民党主导日本政坛近70年。石破茂的任期原本应到2027年9月。在今年7月20日的国会选举中，由自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟均未过半数议席。直到9 月7日下午，石破茂宣布，考虑到与美国的关税谈判取得阶段性成果，以及避免自民党内分裂，不得已作出辞职决定。 参加此次选举的有5位参选人，除了高市早苗还 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming election for the president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to be a contest primarily between current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, and former Minister of Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, with predictions indicating that political instability will persist regardless of the outcome [2][3][4]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - The resignation of former LDP president and Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, after internal party pressure highlights the ongoing political instability in Japan, characterized by frequent changes in leadership [4][5]. - Since Shinzo Abe's second term, Japan has experienced a pattern of "one prime minister per year," indicating a lack of political continuity and stability [5][6]. - The internal factional struggles within the LDP are expected to continue, making it difficult for any new leader to maintain a stable government [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Policy Challenges - The absence of clear economic policies among the LDP candidates is a significant issue, as previous leaders failed to revitalize the economy, leading to public disillusionment [6][12]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese exports is a pressing concern, with estimates indicating that Trump's tariffs could reduce Japan's GDP by 0.4% and lead to a decline in consumer spending and corporate profits [15][16]. - The candidates have not proposed a coherent strategy to address the economic challenges posed by U.S. trade policies, which could further hinder Japan's economic recovery [17][18]. Group 3: Sino-Japanese Relations - Despite political tensions, economic relations between Japan and China remain stable, with bilateral trade figures showing a slight increase over the years [22][23]. - The new LDP president is unlikely to change the confrontational stance towards China, as candidates have continued to emphasize national security concerns and the need to address perceived threats from China [21][22]. - The duality of maintaining economic ties with China while adopting a politically adversarial stance is a defining characteristic of Japan's current political landscape [22][23].

2025.10. 03 本文字数：2737，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 封图 | 日本自民党总裁选举候选人（来源：新华社图） 经过两周的备选，日本自民党总裁选举即将迎来"最后时刻"。 根据日本自民党总裁选举管理委员公告，共有5人报名参加本届自民党总裁选举 ， 投票将于10月4日 举行，届时将选出新一任总裁。这次选举的胜者如无意外，将成为日本下任首相。 农林水产大臣小泉进次郎、前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗、内阁官房长官林芳正、前经济安全保 障担当大臣小林鹰之以及自民党前干事长茂木敏充，5位候选人已在做"最后冲刺"。 选前最接近投票日的民调显示，25%的受访者支持高市早苗，21%的受访者支持小泉进次郎。但针 对自民党内议员的民调却结果截然不同：截至9月28日，有日媒采访了295名自民党议员中的265 人。结果显示，小泉进次郎获得的支持率最高，有71人支持；其次是林芳正，获得52人支持；38名 议员支持高市早苗；小林鹰之和茂木敏充均获得29人支持。 与以往不同，9月22日选战开始正式开始后，5位候选人争相在社交平台"圈地"。比如，小泉进次郎 在9月22日当天就开通个人社交平台账号，要求其阵营内 ...

这次选举的胜者如无意外，将成为日本下任首相。 经过两周的备选，日本自民党总裁选举即将迎来"最后时刻"。 根据日本自民党总裁选举管理委员公告，共有5人报名参加本届自民党总裁选举，投票将于10月4日举行，届时将选出新一任总裁。这次选举的胜 者如无意外，将成为日本下任首相。 与以往不同，9月22日选战开始正式开始后，5位候选人争相在社交平台"圈地"。比如，小泉进次郎在9月22日当天就开通个人社交平台账号，要求 其阵营内成员在网络上发布称赞自己并暗讽竞争对手的评论；高市早苗在正式宣布参选后，个人社交账号6天内已发布了7条视频；茂木敏充则把 日常工作，比如把视察儿童食堂的情况搬到了社交媒体上；小林鹰之晒出"忙碌竞选中的午餐"等。网友对此评论不一。比如，网友捕捉到了茂木 敏充在工作视频中的尴尬表情，称其"作秀"成分太多；而小林鹰之的午餐视频则遭网友群嘲。 值得注意的是，在一次电视辩论中，当主持人要求5位候选人用英文回应未来的日美关系时，仅有林芳正与茂木敏充用英语回答。此事也让日本网 友为未来首相与美国政府打交道的能力捻一把汗。 在各大民调支持率领先的两位候选人小泉进次郎和高市早苗也差点在线上"翻车"。选战开始后，有日媒爆 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming election for the president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) features candidates including current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, and others, with predictions indicating a competitive race primarily between Koizumi and Takaichi [1][2][3] - Regardless of who wins the election, Japan's political landscape is expected to remain unstable, with a pattern of frequent leadership changes likely to continue [1][6][11] - The political cycle in Japan has been characterized by a lack of clear economic policies, contributing to the ongoing instability and dissatisfaction among the populace [7][21] Group 2 - The relationship between Japan and China is anticipated to remain unchanged despite the new party leader, with ongoing tensions likely to persist [2][24] - The economic ties between Japan and China have shown stability, with bilateral trade figures indicating a slight increase from 32.55 trillion yen (approximately 312.4 billion USD) in 2014 to 32.65 trillion yen (approximately 269.86 billion USD) in 2024, suggesting that economic relations are not significantly affected by political tensions [24][25] - The candidates for the LDP presidency have not proposed new strategies for Japan's economic relationship with the United States, which is crucial given the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy, including a projected GDP decrease of 0.4% due to these tariffs [17][18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Sanae Takaichi is a strong proponent of "Abenomics," advocating for monetary easing, yen depreciation, and fiscal expansion. If elected, the price fluctuations of various Japanese assets may align with the trends observed during the "Abenomics trade," although the magnitude of changes is expected to be weaker than in 2012-2013 due to significant transformations in Japan by 2025 [2]. Candidate Background - Sanae Takaichi, born on March 7, 1961, is a female politician from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan. She comes from a non-political family background and has a diverse educational and professional history, including studying at Kobe University and working in the U.S. Congress [3][4]. Political Career - Takaichi's political journey began in 1992, and she has held various significant positions, including Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications and Minister of Economic Security. She has been a prominent figure in the LDP and has supported Shinzo Abe in past elections [4][5]. Economic and Financial Policies - Takaichi's economic policies include: - **Tax Reduction**: Proposing to raise the income threshold for tax exemptions and implement cash subsidies for low-income families, reflecting a cross-party collaboration approach [7]. - **Monetary Policy**: She shows a clear preference for monetary easing, emphasizing the negative impacts of rapid interest rate hikes on corporate investment and housing loans [8]. - **Exchange Rate**: Takaichi appears to favor a weaker yen, arguing that yen depreciation benefits export industries and enhances foreign reserves [9]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Advocating for fiscal expansion and deficit financing, she emphasizes the importance of strategic investments to stimulate economic growth [10]. Market Outlook if Elected - If Takaichi is elected, the market may experience trends similar to those during the "Abenomics trade," including yen depreciation, rising Japanese stock prices, and a gradual increase in bond yields. However, the expected changes in magnitude are likely to be less pronounced than those seen in 2012-2013 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) plans to sell approximately 3.3 trillion yen worth of ETFs annually, indicating a commitment to tightening monetary policy despite not raising interest rates at the recent meeting. The current pace suggests it would take 113 years to completely divest its holdings [1] Group 1: Bank of Japan's Actions - The BOJ has held 37 trillion yen in ETFs, which represents 3.5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange [1] - The BOJ began purchasing Japanese stocks significantly in 2013 to support Abenomics and ceased these purchases only at the beginning of the interest rate hike cycle in early 2024 [1] - At its peak in 2020, the BOJ's holdings accounted for nearly 6% of the total market capitalization of Japanese stocks, with the recent decline in share percentage attributed to the rise in Japanese stock prices over the past two years [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The BOJ is now one of the top shareholders in over 200 companies within the Nikkei 225 index, highlighting its significant influence on the Japanese stock market [1]