首席点评：贵金属巨震 当地时间 1 月 29 日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。特 朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔 " 再次拒绝降息 " ，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于 最低水平。特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将 " 干得不错 " ，美联储目前利率 " 高得不可接受 " 。 1 月 29 日，国务院办公厅发布《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，提出聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服 务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费 6 个重点领域，以及演出服务，体育赛事服务，情绪式、体验式服 务 3 个潜力领域，加快培育服务消费新增长点，促进服务消费提质惠民，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。国 际贵金属期货普遍收涨， COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32% 报 5410.80 美元 / 盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98% 报 115.78 美元 / 盎司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铝 贵金属： 贵金属一度大幅下挫，随后震荡回升。近期国际金价持续飙升并迭创历史新高，这是地缘政治格局剧 烈动荡、全球政治经济秩序动摇与流动性环境持续宽松共同作用的必然结果。今年 ...

| 名称 | 最新点位 | 、涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4157.98 | +6.74(0.16%) | | 深证指数 | 14300.08 | -42.81(-0.3%) | | 创业板指 | 3304.51 | -19.05 (-0.57%) | | | 日期:1月29日 制图:21投资通 | | 昨日A股 1月29日，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指窄幅震荡，上证50指数涨超1%，创业板指冲高回落，科创50指数跌 超3%。截至收盘，沪指涨0.16%，深成指跌0.3%，创业板指跌0.57%。沪深两市成交额3.23万亿，较上 一个交易日放量2646亿。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超3500只个股下跌。从板块来看，白酒板块午后爆发，泸州老窖、 水井坊、舍得酒业、皇台酒业、酒鬼酒涨停。有色金属板块反复活跃，金属铜、贵金属领涨，西部黄金 7天4板，中国黄金5连板，北方铜业2连板创历史新高。油气股延续强势，洲际油气7天5板，准油股份2 连板，中曼石油4天3板。房地产板块震荡反弹，大悦城、三湘印象、我爱我家涨停。下跌方面，芯片产 业链下挫，美埃科技、京仪装备跌超9%。 隔夜外盘 ...

Group 1: Economic Policies and Initiatives - The State Council released a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on six key areas: transportation services, housekeeping services, online audio-visual services, travel services, automotive aftermarket services, and inbound consumption, along with three potential areas: performance services, sports event services, and experiential services [2] - The People's Bank of China reported that the weighted average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q4 2025 is 3.06% [3] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - The World Gold Council reported that China's gold investment and consumption demand reached 274 tons in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a significant 60% rise compared to Q3, marking the second-best performance for Q4 in history [3] - The total gold demand for 2025 was 1003 tons, a 6% increase year-on-year, with a total value of 796 billion RMB (approximately 111 billion USD), representing a 53% surge [3] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Apple reported Q1 2026 revenue of 143.76 billion USD, a 16% year-on-year increase, exceeding the forecast of 138.4 billion USD [7] - North Mo High-tech projected a net profit increase of 1076.16% to 1261.87% for 2025 [12] - Jiang Bolong expects a net profit increase of 150.66% to 210.82% for 2025, driven by rising storage prices [13] - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz, with stock suspension starting on January 30 [14] Group 4: Market Adjustments and Risks - China Bank adjusted the margin ratio for silver deferred contracts from 48.26% to 50.8% [8] - Hunan Silver's stock price has significantly deviated from market trends, indicating high speculation risks [9] - Baishan Nonferrous's revenue from gold and silver products constitutes a low proportion of total revenue [10] - Zhaojin Gold noted that the prices of its gold and concentrate products are highly influenced by gold price fluctuations, which could significantly impact its operating performance [11]

Group 1 - The State Council of China has issued a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on key areas such as transportation services, housekeeping services, and inbound consumption [3] - The China National Space Administration plans to develop more "space+" future industries, including space tourism and space resource development, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - Apple reported a revenue of $143.76 billion for the first fiscal quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [5] Group 2 - The Ministry of Civil Affairs has issued guidelines to promote technological innovation in civil affairs, aiming for significant improvements in innovation levels and the emergence of leading talents and enterprises by 2030 [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics will enhance monitoring of new consumption formats and structural changes in consumption by 2026 [3] - Jiangbolong expects a net profit of between 1.25 billion to 1.55 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 150.66% to 210.82% [9] - Tianqi Lithium anticipates a profit of 369 million to 553 million yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 7.905 billion yuan in the previous year [9]

Group 1 - The Chinese government aims to develop a long-term stable comprehensive strategic partnership with the UK, as discussed in a meeting between President Xi Jinping and UK Prime Minister Starmer [1] - The State Council has issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on optimizing and expanding service supply to support high-quality economic development [1] - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance have jointly issued guidelines to improve the temporary assistance system, ensuring quick aid for families or individuals facing severe difficulties due to unexpected events [1] Group 2 - The State Administration for Market Regulation has approved the establishment of 11 new national measurement standards, with a total of 45 new standards created during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, marking a 150% increase from the previous period [2] - In 2025, the tax revenue collected by tax authorities is projected to reach 33.1 trillion yuan, with a 2.7% year-on-year increase in tax revenue excluding export tax rebates [2] - The shopping center industry in China is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2025, with over 70% of projects achieving sales growth and 85.5% of shopping centers experiencing an increase in foot traffic [2] Group 3 - International gold futures and spot prices reached new highs, surpassing $5,500 per ounce [3] - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand is expected to reach 5,002 tons in 2025, setting a new historical record [3]

Group 1 - The State Council of China has issued a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, which includes optimizing loan interest subsidy policies for service industry entities and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit support for these sectors [1][5] - The work plan outlines 12 specific measures aimed at stimulating development in key areas such as transportation, housekeeping, and the automotive aftermarket, thereby reducing uncertainties for enterprises entering and expanding in the service consumption market [5][22] Group 2 - The Ministry of Civil Affairs is exploring the establishment of a civil affairs technology innovation fund through investment financing and charitable donations to support the research and industrialization of suitable technology products [2][18] - The goal is to enhance the innovation system by 2030, increase technological investment, and improve innovation levels, ultimately leading to breakthroughs in key technologies and the emergence of leading talents and enterprises in civil affairs technology [2][18] Group 3 - There is a significant performance divergence among funds labeled as "cyclical," with some funds focusing heavily on the non-ferrous sector for maximum elasticity, while others adopt a diversified approach across multiple cyclical areas for varied returns [3][19] - This divergence raises questions about fund positioning and the active management capabilities of fund managers, with market expectations influencing single-strategy approaches [19] Group 4 - Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have opted to maintain current interest rates, indicating a slowdown in the pace of global interest rate cuts, which could have significant implications for global asset allocation [4][21] - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% reflects internal divisions, with some members advocating for a rate cut, highlighting the challenges of maintaining independence amid political pressures [6][23] Group 5 - The demand for optical fiber in the telecommunications industry is surging due to the construction of AI data centers, with Meta committing to pay $6 billion for fiber optics from Corning by 2030 [7][24] - The rapid growth of AI applications is expected to drive higher bandwidth requirements, influencing the demand trajectory for optical fiber and related industries [24] Group 6 - The REITs market is witnessing innovation with the launch of mixed-asset REITs, as demonstrated by the recent expansion of the Zhonghang Jingneng photovoltaic REIT, which combines hydropower and solar assets [8][25] - This development marks a significant step in diversifying public REITs and revitalizing dormant assets [25] Group 7 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is addressing "involution" in the photovoltaic industry by promoting coordinated efforts to regulate competition and enhance industry standards [9][26][27] - The focus is on using market-oriented and legal methods to foster healthy competition and rational development within the photovoltaic sector [27] Group 8 - The consumer electronics industry is facing a cost defense battle due to skyrocketing storage prices, with major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix raising NAND flash supply contract prices by over 100% [10][28] - The ongoing supply tightness in DRAM is also contributing to rising prices, impacting the overall cost structure of consumer electronics [28] Group 9 - The Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global reported a 15.1% return in 2025, with its total assets reaching approximately 15.47 trillion RMB, highlighting the fund's robust performance [11][29] - This fund is one of the largest sovereign wealth funds globally, indicating strong investment management capabilities [29] Group 10 - China is planning to expand its "space+" future industries, focusing on commercial space applications and infrastructure development, which includes initiatives in space resource management and space tourism [12][30] - The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is leading these efforts, aiming to foster collaboration across the industry chain [30] Group 11 - The China Commercial Rocket Corporation is preparing for the first flights of reusable rockets this year, emphasizing the importance of resource coordination and successful recovery operations [13][31] - This initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance China's capabilities in commercial spaceflight [31] Group 12 - The AI industry is experiencing a surge in new model releases, with major companies like Tencent and Baidu competing for application traffic through significant promotional efforts [14][32] - The release of advanced AI models, such as Alibaba's Qwen3-Max-Thinking, reflects the rapid evolution and competitive landscape of the AI sector [32] Group 13 - The chemical sector is gaining attention in the A-share market, with chemical ETFs seeing significant growth in their share volumes as the sector aligns with cyclical market trends [15][33] - The recovery of profitability in the chemical industry is enhancing its appeal for investment, particularly in the context of "anti-involution" strategies [33] Group 14 - Several banks have adjusted the margin requirements for personal clients trading in Shanghai Gold Exchange's deferred contracts, increasing the margin ratio from 44% to 60% for specific gold and silver contracts [16][34] - This adjustment reflects changing market conditions and regulatory responses within the financial sector [34]

Core Insights - The "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" was officially released on January 29, focusing on innovative business models, rapid growth, and strong driving effects in the service consumption sector [1][17] - The plan outlines 12 key measures aimed at continuously releasing the potential of service consumption and activating the endogenous power of economic development [1] Group 1: Key Measures - The plan targets six major areas of service consumption: transportation services, housekeeping services, online audio-visual services, travel and residence services, automotive aftermarket services, and inbound consumption, proposing policies to optimize service supply and promote innovation [1][12] - It emphasizes the development of performance services, sports event services, and experiential services, suggesting the establishment of incentive mechanisms and the cultivation of quality brands [3][16] - The plan includes strengthening support and guarantees, such as improving standards and credit systems, enhancing financial support, and guiding financial institutions to increase support for service consumption growth areas [7][20] Group 2: Economic Impact - Experts believe that expanding and upgrading service consumption will better promote the high-quality development of the service industry, stabilize employment, and increase residents' income, creating a virtuous cycle from employment to consumption [5][16] - The service consumption sector is showing strong growth, with retail service revenue expected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year by 2025, outpacing goods retail growth by 1.7 percentage points [18][22] - The integration of various service sectors, such as food, culture, and tourism, along with the deep empowerment of artificial intelligence and digital technology, is expected to enhance the quality and accessibility of services [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" by the State Council, which aims to enhance service consumption and stimulate economic growth through 12 key measures targeting six major service sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Key Measures and Focus Areas - The "Work Plan" emphasizes six major service sectors: transportation services, housekeeping services, online audio-visual services, travel and accommodation services, automotive aftermarket services, and inbound consumption, proposing policies to optimize service supply and stimulate development [1][2]. - It highlights the importance of enhancing service quality and meeting diverse consumer needs, particularly in areas like elderly care, childcare, and cultural tourism, to improve residents' sense of well-being and happiness [2][3]. Group 2: Specific Sector Initiatives - In transportation services, the plan focuses on niche areas such as tourism trains, cruise ships, and night boats, proposing the development of specialized tourism routes and immersive cruise products [3]. - For housekeeping services, it addresses the growing demand for specialized services like cooking, wardrobe organization, and elderly care, encouraging innovation and smart service models among qualified service providers [3]. - The plan also aims to promote competition and innovation in online audio-visual services, while in travel and accommodation, it seeks to cultivate destination cities and develop niche markets [5]. - In the automotive aftermarket, it encourages events and activities related to RV camping, automotive competitions, and self-driving tours, promoting cross-industry integration [5]. - To boost inbound consumption, the plan proposes creating the "Shop in China" brand and enhancing the convenience of shopping for foreign visitors [5].

（上接1版） 《方案》的印发旨在优化和扩大服务供给，促进服务消费提质惠民，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。 对企业而言，投资与创新方向更清晰，为企业开展经营活动提供了有力加持；对消费者而言，意味着可 选择的服务更多、质量更稳定、体验更丰富，尤其是在家政、旅居、文化娱乐等领域，将更好满足其个 性化、多样化和情绪价值需求。 展望未来，洪勇表示，服务消费仍将是我国扩大内需和促进高质量发展的重要引擎，其增长动力将更多 来自人口结构变化、生活方式升级和技术赋能。随着标准、监管和信用体系不断完善，服务供给质量提 升，服务消费将在稳增长、稳就业和改善民生中发挥更加基础性、长期性的作用。崔丽丽认为，服务消 费结构将持续升级、继续深化，同时技术发展与服务深度融合，促进产业迭代创新升级，中国服务品牌 也将有机会脱颖而出。 洪勇认为，目前部分服务消费领域标准体系、信用体系和监管规则尚不健全，影响消费者信心。并且服 务消费对时间、收入和场景依赖度高，居民预期和消费环境改善仍需持续推进。 同时也要看到，制约因素依然存在。在崔丽丽看来，目前限制服务消费发展的最核心矛盾是优质供给不 足与结构失衡：一方面，高品质、精细化、个性化的服务供给短缺 ...

◎记者 白丽斐 国务院办公厅1月29日发布《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》（简称《方案》），在激发重点领 域发展活力、培育潜力领域发展动能、加强支持保障等三方面提出12条具体举措。 受访专家认为，《方案》通过明确重点方向、完善配套制度等，降低企业进入和扩展服务消费市场的不 确定性，有利于企业加大供给侧投入、做长服务链条、做深细分市场。同时，职业体系与标准化体系的 建立，为营造公平开放的市场环境保驾护航，有效提升了市场运行效率。更重要的是，这种以服务为核 心的扩消费方式，有助于形成"收入—消费—就业"的良性循环。 服务消费政策从"补缺口"走向"塑生态" 洪勇认为，《方案》更加注重服务属性本身，而非简单视为商品或配套，强调慢旅行、内容消费、体验 消费和跨界融合，这标志着服务消费政策开始从"补缺口"走向"塑生态"。 最核心矛盾是优质供给不足与结构失衡 《方案》聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费等六大重点 领域：从优化服务供给、推进先行先试、创新消费场景、加强人才培养等方面发力，激发发展活力；聚 焦演出服务、体育赛事服务、情绪式体验式服务等三大潜力领域，从健全激励机制、优化安 ...