一、现货黄金基本面： 1.避险需求方面：6月23日凌晨，以色列中部多地响起防空警报，胡塞武装声称对以色列发动导弹袭击。23日早，有消息称伊朗支持的组织正准备袭击美国 在伊拉克和叙利亚的基地，随后伊朗攻击了美军驻卡塔尔基地，还向巴林发射了导弹等。这些冲突事件使得中东地区局势的不确定性和紧张程度大幅上升。 不过，6月24日特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗同意停火，紧张局势有所缓和。这会使市场的避险情绪降温，对黄金的避险需求减少，金价面临回调压力。 2. 市场预期方面：中东战局的发展可能会对全球经济产生一定的影响，进而影响货币政策预期。例如，如果冲突持续升级，可能会导致石油等大宗商品价格 上涨，引发通胀预期上升，这将对黄金构成支撑。但如果冲突导致全球经济增长放缓，各国央行可能会采取宽松的货币政策来刺激经济，这也会对黄金有 利。然而，目前来看，虽然中东局势紧张，但市场对美联储货币政策的预期主要还是受美国国内经济数据的影响。6月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，市场 对9月降息的预期从55%降至25%，导致美元指数反弹，压制了黄金的吸引力。 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应根据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance is undergoing subtle changes, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its interest rate cut expectations from a single cut in December to three cuts starting in September, reflecting a reassessment of the U.S. economic environment and inflation trends [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Inflation - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that preliminary evidence suggests the impact of tariffs on inflation is less severe than previously expected, with May's personal consumption expenditure data showing an unexpected decline due to the fading effects of pre-tariff purchasing [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that without the Trump administration's tariff policies, the Fed would likely have begun cutting rates this year, indicating that tariffs have significantly raised inflation forecasts [3]. Group 2: Divergence in Market Expectations and Policy - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with 10 officials advocating for at least two cuts this year while 7 officials express concerns over persistent price pressures from tariffs [4]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintains a forecast for one cut this year and three cuts by 2026, emphasizing the gradual impact of tariffs on prices and the need for more information before making rate adjustments [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Policy Outlook - Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that if tariffs remain around 10%, the Fed might start cutting rates in the second half of 2025, contingent on the resolution of tariffs by July [5]. - Several investment banks, including Citigroup and Wells Fargo, expect the Fed to cut rates three times in 2025, with Goldman Sachs predicting two additional cuts in 2026, bringing the final rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline of the US dollar, which has led to a strong rebound in gold prices, marking a potential new trend in the market [1][3]. - The US dollar index has experienced its worst start in 50 years, dropping over 10% in the first half of 2025, while gold has surged by 5.5% in the second quarter, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven [3][5]. - The upcoming ADP and non-farm payroll data are expected to further influence gold prices, with historical data suggesting that lower non-farm payroll numbers could lead to substantial gains in gold [1][3]. Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including expansive fiscal policies leading to increased national debt and concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal health [7]. - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves by 30% year-on-year, providing structural support for gold prices amid rising demand [7]. - Market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also driving gold prices higher, with predictions of multiple rate cuts in the coming year [7]. Group 3 - The second quarter's performance of gold, with a 5.5% increase, breaks the typical seasonal volatility patterns, reflecting strong market reactions to global economic uncertainties and the weakening dollar [5][6]. - The investment strategies that contributed to gold's performance include geopolitical tensions, interest rate cut bets, and opportunistic trading in response to the dollar's decline [4]. - Historical data indicates that significant economic data releases can lead to notable price fluctuations in gold, creating trading opportunities for investors [8].

换资前言： 面对剧烈波动的市场行情，我们需要的是等待机会，一击而中，而不是在频繁的交易中迷失自己！合理 的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意进场，请 对自己的资金负责，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。经常 做错方向和进出场点位把控的不是很好，操作中亏损的朋友，可与晟富一起交流。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三（7月2日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3340美元/盎司附近。特朗普减税议案点燃 避险热潮，美联储降息预期再升温 ，黄金市场在2025年7月初迎来了新一轮的上涨热潮，现货黄金价格 周二飙升逾1%，触及6月24日以来的最高水平3357.82美元/盎司，收盘报3338.77美元/盎司，为连续两 个交易日上涨。这一涨势不仅受到美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案的推动，还与即将到 来的7月9日贸易关税暂停期限、全球储备货币格局的讨论以及美联储货币政策的最新动向密切相关。日 内将可关注美国6月挑战者企业裁员人数(万人)、美国6月ADP就业人数(万人)等数据，市场预期偏向利 空金价 ...

据新华社报道， 当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院以51票赞成、50票反对的表决结果通过"大而美"税 收与支出法案 。对经济状况更为敏感的道指收涨，在前一日创下新高的纳指、标普500指数走低。 金价油价反弹 当地时间7月1日，美股科技股遭到抛售，特斯拉股价盘中重挫逾7%，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真 实社交"上发帖，回应美国企业家马斯克对其力推的"大而美"减税及支出法案的抨击。 特斯拉盘中暴跌逾7% 当地时间7月1日，美股迎来下半年首个交易日，三大指数表现分化。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指 涨0.91%，纳指跌0.82%，标普500指数跌0.11%。 随着美国参议院通过"大而美"税收与支出法案，对经济较为敏感的道指走高，材料板块以及小盘股表现 亮眼；被视为经济晴雨表的道琼斯运输业平均指数（DJT）飙升2.85%，创下自5月12日以来的最大单日 涨幅。 在近期积累了一定涨幅后，美股科技股遭到抛售。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，万得美国科技七巨头指 数下跌1.18%，英伟达、Meta跌逾2%，微软跌逾1%，谷歌母公司Alphabet微跌；苹果涨1.29%、亚马逊 涨0.49%。 特斯拉盘中一度暴跌逾7%，收跌5 ...

一、基本面 制造业低迷：6月制造业PMI显示制造业依然低迷，关税政策的不确定性导致供应链瓶颈，工厂等待原材料时间延长，企业对长期采购决策持谨慎态度。 黄金周二（7月2日）早盘开盘后就一路慢涨，欧盘延续上涨，到美盘初最高上涨至3358附近，美盘震荡下探3337/3336附近，日线收出一根阳线。 1、特朗普减税议案通过：7月1日，美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案，该议案预计将在未来十年内导致财政赤字增加3万亿美元。这会刺激通 胀压力，加重美国债务负担，而黄金作为传统避险资产，在这种情况下吸引了更多投资者关注，推动价格上涨。 2、贸易政策不确定性：美国财政部长贝森特警告称，随着7月9日贸易关税暂停期限临近，各国可能面临大幅提高的关税税率。特朗普对日本等国可能征收 更高关税的表态，加剧了市场对全球贸易环境的紧张情绪，进一步推动金价上涨。 3、美国经济数据复杂： 职位空缺增加：美国5月职位空缺意外增加37.4万个，达到776.9万个，超出市场预期。 支撑位上，关注3315-3310区域支撑，这里是5日均线和60日均线目前位置，金价转强站上均线上方，回落关注均线支撑情况。 劳动力市场动能减弱：5月裁员人数减少 ...

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 我在前文《》谈及黄金的日线走势的时候，提到了重要的均线。当然啦，如果你们认真看留言板的话，实际上应该知道是哪一天，看图(绿色线)—— 6月27日金价收盘在3273美元/盎司，已经形成了破位。不过根据《四维共振》基础篇的突破三原则，即突破在外，保持在外，充分回吐，还需要一次回抽 确认。 汇丰银行最新的一份报告剖析黄金的走势逻辑，并指出，黄金的上涨动能或已接近极限。 那么，之所以说这条均线重要，是因为年内的这一波黄金上攻行情，实际上是经历了去年10月底到今年1月中旬的一波收敛整理。均线系统在收敛之后， 再次扩散，形成了均线系统的看多做多走势。 大家可以仔细日线图，从今年1月至今，价格从未有效击穿过这根均线。如今是年内首次失而复得，变相的也在意味着有部分之前做多的资金在出逃。 或者我这么直白的跟你讲， 这次是假破位，那么下次呢？ 当然，从日线的区间来看，目前整体震荡的态势倒没有发生变化。 汇丰在最新报告中写道，虽然地缘政治风险、央行购金需求和美元走弱等因素将继续支撑金价在历史高位运行，但随着实物需求减弱、供应增加、美联储 降息预期减弱等因素的影响，预计2025年下半年金价 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：美元怎么了？ 国内商品方面，黑色系与地产后周期品种承压，情绪偏弱。黑色系中，焦煤和焦炭价格跌幅较大，分别下 跌 3.32%和 2.46%，铁矿石、螺纹钢分别下跌 1.32%、0.20%，仅热轧卷板录得 0.06%的小涨。后地产链的玻璃同 样表现较弱，大幅下跌 3.73%。此外，光伏产业链上游的工业硅与多晶硅价格也出现明显回调，分别下跌 4.31% 和 2.39%。 复盘与思考: 7 月 1 日，股债双牛。股市中季末走弱的几个板块均迎来反弹，债市收益率在季初宽松的底色下重回下行。 除了股债以外，黄金与美元是另一条重要主线，美元指数经历"九连跌"后来到 96.5 附近，黄金价格顺势反 弹，各交易所金价涨幅均在 1.40%以上。 美元到底发生了什么？2025 上半年，美元指数累积跌幅达到 10.8%，创出最近 52 年（1973 以来）上半年 最糟糕表现。今日美元指数继续下跌 0.3%。近期美元指数疲软，可能受到几个因素影响： 一是降息预期升温，CME FedWatch 显示，美联储 9 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Global stock market risk appetite has steadily increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching record closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6204.95 points, up 25% from its low on April 9, while the Nasdaq rose over 34% from its low [5] - The Korean Composite Index surged over 28%, leading global stock markets, while the German DAX index saw a cumulative increase of 20% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices rose significantly, with a 25.59% increase in the first half of the year, following a 19% rise in Q1 and a 6% increase in Q2 [1][8] - Platinum experienced a notable "catch-up" rally, with a cumulative increase of 48% in the first half of the year, while silver futures rose by 32.61% [1] - The COMEX gold futures saw a 5.67% increase in Q2, while platinum prices surged approximately 36.14% in the same period [8] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, while non-US currencies strengthened [1][5] - The euro appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar, and both the yen and pound rose by 8% [1] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced wide fluctuations, with WTI crude oil reaching a high of nearly $80 per barrel and a low of around $55 [10] - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July [11] - Analysts predict that oil prices may have reached their peak for the year, with expectations of a downward trend influenced by OPEC+ production increases [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the US dollar due to uncertainty surrounding US policies, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in over a decade [1] - Analysts indicate that both the Swiss franc and the euro are primary beneficiaries as investors look for alternatives to the US dollar [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, noted that the rise of the Swiss franc occurred despite low yields on Swiss government bonds, suggesting a shift in liquidity preferences among investors [1] - There is an increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, which is putting additional pressure on the US dollar [1]