Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced the third round of trade talks between the U.S. and China to be held on July 28-29 in Stockholm, indicating a proactive approach from the U.S. ahead of the August 12 tariff truce expiration [1][3] - The U.S. is under pressure as the trade war has not reversed the trade deficit, which is projected to reach $918.4 billion in 2024, the second highest in nearly 60 years [3][5] - The U.S. is seeking to leverage the upcoming talks to mitigate potential market panic from the August 1 deadline for trade agreements with multiple countries [5][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is showing a shift in its approach to China, with recent statements from President Trump acknowledging China's cooperation, contrasting with earlier aggressive tariff increases [1][3] - China's economic resilience is highlighted by a recovery in trade figures, with exports to the U.S. rebounding to over 3500 billion yuan in June, indicating strong performance despite U.S. tariffs [5][7] - The U.S. hopes to pressure China into increasing energy imports from the U.S. while reducing purchases from Iran and Russia, aiming to address trade imbalances [9][11] Group 3 - The U.S. is experiencing domestic political and economic pressures, with farmers and businesses expressing dissatisfaction with tariff policies, influencing the government's willingness to negotiate [11][13] - The depth of economic interdependence between the U.S. and China remains significant, with China accounting for 14.7% of U.S. exports and 6.3% of imports, suggesting that complete decoupling is unlikely [11][13] - The Chinese government maintains a firm stance on trade negotiations, emphasizing the need for equal and mutually beneficial discussions, particularly in the context of technology and trade restrictions [13]

实际上特朗普在宣布对日本关税降低到15%的同时，根据外媒报道，特朗普也公布了日本的让步，日本已经对美国开放汽车（包括卡车）的进口，同时允许 美国向日本出口大米。 特朗普在其社交平台上发布的内容，不仅仅是关于关税税率的降低。他还宣称，美国与日本达成了一项 "巨大" 的协议，甚至可能是有史以来最大的一项。 按照他的说法，日本将向美国投资 5500 亿美元，并且美国将获得其中 90% 的利润，这项投资还将创造数十万个就业岗位。 此外，日本将开放其市场进行贸易，涉及汽车、卡车、大米以及其他部分农产品和商品领域，而作为交换，日本将向美国支付 15% 的对等关税。 特朗普的这一系列表述，无疑显示出他对这份协议的高度满意，认为这对美国来说是一场 "大获全胜" 的交易。 美国总统特朗普在7月22日通过社交媒体宣布，美国对于日本的关税从原来的25%降低到15%，如果仅仅从税率来看，日本首相石破茂顶住压力，已经颇有 赢了的节奏。 日本和美国已经举行了多轮谈判，但是美国总统特朗普在7月7日宣布，要对日本产品加征25%的关税，从美国的计划来看，是要从8月1日开始新的关税税 率，当时美国是通过美国总统致函日本首相石破茂的方式，从而通知 ...

Economic Context - The 1980s marked a critical turning point in the global economy, with the U.S. facing severe economic challenges such as rising fiscal deficits and trade imbalances, prompting the government to seek new economic strategies [4] - Japan, in contrast, experienced rapid economic growth, becoming the world's second-largest economy, leading to an overheated economy and a need for measures to control this growth [4][5] - The Plaza Accord of September 1985 was a significant moment, aiming to address global economic imbalances by promoting the depreciation of the dollar, particularly against the yen, which had implications for both U.S. and Japanese economic policies [5] Real Estate Boom - Following the Plaza Accord, the depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yen had positive short-term effects on both economies, with Japan's real estate market entering a phase of unprecedented prosperity [5][6] - Real estate became a high-return investment tool, with banks loosening lending policies and providing low-interest loans, leading to a surge in demand for real estate [6][7] - The real estate market in Japan saw extreme price increases, particularly in major cities like Tokyo, where property prices reached unprecedented levels [6] Bubble Burst - By 1992, the Japanese real estate market began to show signs of weakness, leading to a rapid decline in property prices as demand plummeted and unsold properties accumulated [8] - The bursting of the real estate bubble resulted in significant financial distress for many investors and homeowners, with many facing negative equity as property values fell below their mortgage amounts [9][11] - The economic impact was severe, with related industries such as construction, finance, and retail suffering greatly, leading to increased bankruptcies and rising unemployment [11][13] Societal Impact - The economic downturn led to widespread despair, with many families unable to cope with financial pressures, resulting in a tragic increase in suicide rates during this period [13][14] - The crisis prompted a societal reflection on economic practices and values, shifting perceptions of wealth and success, particularly regarding real estate as a symbol of status [16] - Interestingly, families that had previously been unable to afford housing found new opportunities as property prices fell, leading to a shift in the housing market dynamics [16]

Core Viewpoint - The negotiations between Japan and the U.S. are facing challenges due to the weakened political position of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe following the recent Senate election losses, which may lead to a tougher stance from the Trump administration [1][4]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Japan's Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy, Akizawa, is in Washington for the 8th round of ministerial talks, but the U.S. is showing a lack of urgency to reach an agreement [1][3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that the priority is to achieve a "high-quality agreement" rather than rushing to finalize a deal [3]. - The Trump administration's assessment of Abe's weakened position may influence their negotiation strategy, potentially leading to a more hardline approach [4]. Group 2: Japan's Position and Strategy - Japan is under pressure to make concessions if it seeks to expedite negotiations, with Abe advocating for investment over tariffs as a means to negotiate [5]. - The U.S. demands market openness and a reduction in trade deficits, which contrasts with Japan's focus on tariff adjustments and investment commitments [5]. - Japan's willingness to lower tariffs on agricultural products and accept more U.S. agricultural imports could be key to persuading the Trump administration [5]. Group 3: External Influences - The outcomes of negotiations with other countries, such as India, may impact Japan's negotiations, as India has temporarily withdrawn its negotiation team [5]. - If the U.S. does not achieve significant results before the August 1 deadline, Trump may unexpectedly accept Japan's previous proposals to declare a victory [6].

Core Insights - New Zealand reported a trade surplus of 142 million NZD in June, while the 12-month trade deficit reached 4.366 billion NZD [1] - Exports in June totaled 6.63 billion NZD, while imports were 6.49 billion NZD [1]

美日之间的关税谈判为何会停滞不前？面对美国的咄咄逼人，石破茂又作出了怎样的回应呢？ 距离"对等关税"的最后日期7月9日只剩不到一周的时间，但是与美国达成关税协议的国家依然寥寥无几。比如日本，虽然竭尽全力希望能够在7月9日之前能 够和美国达成协议，但是由于双方在各自的核心利益上均不肯让步，导致双方的7轮谈判全部无果而终。 近期，日方的谈判代表赤泽亮正在两个多内第7次飞抵美国，准备与美国就关税问题进行谈判。但是这次赤泽亮正这次访美，别说与特朗普面谈，就连美国 财长贝森特的面他也没有见到，为了能和贝森特见上一面，赤泽亮正一再延长了在美国停留的时间，但是却依然未能如愿。 那么一直以来关系还不错的美日同盟，为何会在关税问题上相持不下呢？其实答案就藏在特朗普的表态中。据相关数据显示，在2024年，日本对美国出口了 约137万辆汽车，总价值超过了6万亿日元（约合414亿美元），占到了日本对美出口总额的30%左右。而在2024年，美国对日本的贸易逆差大约是694亿美 元，因此特朗普想当然地认为，只要把日本的汽车挡在美国之外，就能从很大程度上解决美日逆差的问题。 所以在"对等关税"之前，美国就对日本的汽车行业加征了25%的关税 ...

中国和欧盟在经贸领域有着密切的合作，实际上中国和欧盟之前有签署投资协定，但是欧洲议会却搁置了相关的协议。中国和欧盟在经济上有很大的互补， 欧盟许多企业在中国有投资，从而可以在中国市场获得巨大的利益，如今中国企业也已经在欧盟国家投资，尤其是在新能源汽车领域，中国已经领先欧盟， 为此中国企业在欧盟的投资，已经可以带动欧盟相关产业的发展。随着中国的崛起，欧盟已经越来越需要中国的支持，但是在美国的作梗之下，欧盟还有不 同的声音。 在美国坚持对欧盟加征30%关税的时候，冯德莱恩访问中国，无疑是给了美国一个警告，实际上欧盟产品在中国也是拥有一定的优势，如果欧盟企业在中国 扩大投资，会给欧盟带来更多的利益，包括通过技术合作，显然对于欧盟经济的发展可以提供支持。中国的崛起，已经带动了东南亚国家的发展，显然欧盟 也看得到中国的带动作用，欧盟原本对美国还是有很大的幻想，但是美国给予欧盟30%的关税，着实让欧盟感到了痛苦，为此欧盟是会有调整的。 名义上美国还是世界上最大的经济体，不过如果从实际购买力来看，美国已经不是最大的经济体，美国的优势在于使用美元，美元是国际贸易的主要支付货 币，为此美国可以通过美元购买廉价的商品，但是也是因 ...

美国贸易代表办公室数据显示，2024年美国与欧盟货物贸易总额约9759亿美元，高于与任何其他单 一经济体的货物贸易额。2024年美国对欧盟货物贸易逆差为2356亿美元，较前一年增加12.9%。（记 者：邓仙来） "不，不，那是硬启动日期。也就是说，8月1日新关税措施就将生效。"卢特尼克进一步解释说，美 方关税起征日并非贸易谈判的截止日，"没有什么能阻止其他国家在8月1日后（继续）与我们对话，但 从8月1日起这些关税还是得征"。 近日，美国总统特朗普先后致信多国领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。7月12日， 特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起对欧盟输美商品征收30%的关税，称欧盟的关税和非关税贸易壁垒导致美对 欧出现巨额贸易逆差。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩13日对媒体表示，欧盟决定推迟原定于布鲁塞尔时间14日零时实施的对美 反制措施，以期同美方达成贸易协议，但如果未能达成协议，"我们将继续准备（实施）反制措施，我 们完全做好准备"。 新华社北京7月21日电 美国商务部长卢特尼克当地时间20日说，美方有信心与欧盟达成贸易协议， 但8月1日作为美方拟向欧盟输美产品征收30%关税的起始日期是"硬性"的，此后双方仍可 ...

随着中美两国高层进行多轮贸易谈判，特朗普的对华态度开始有了明显的变化，不再像之前那种一谈到对华问题就是各种激进的言论，反而开始有些"软化 对华语调"。 特朗普之前时不时的就把"美国对华巨额贸易逆差及其造成的失业问题"挂在嘴边，并以此来向我国发难，但是现在呢？几乎已经没怎么提了。这是为什么？ 主要还是特朗普现在已经将精力放在了寻求与我国达成新的贸易协议上，所以才不再关注所谓的"贸易失衡"问题。 日前，特朗普在白宫签署"全面遏制芬太尼贩运法案"时，一改往日在芬太尼问题上对中国的无端指责，反而对中国表示赞赏，称中国一直在芬太尼问题上帮 助美国。这番表态与他今年2月对中国加征"芬太尼关税"时的态度形成鲜明对比，不少人猜测特朗普要取消对中国加征的20%的额外关税。 此后中美爆发了激烈的关税战。在瑞士的日内瓦会谈后中美关税战得到缓解，美中互相取消了大部分关税，但中方此前强调，针对反制美方以芬太尼为借口 加征关税的措施仍然有效。 特朗普 日内瓦会谈之后，中方严肃认真执行了协议。美方应实事求是看待取得的进展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措。 特朗普表示，美中关系十分重要。美方乐见中国经济保持强劲增长。美中合作可以做成很多好事。美方 ...

日本政府周四公布的数据显示，今年上半年，日本陷入了2.2万亿日元的贸易逆差。这主要是因为美国 总统特朗普的关税政策对日本出口造成了冲击。 上个月，日本的出口额同比下降0.5%，此前5月份已下降1.7%。其中，日本对美国的出口在6月份下降 了11%，汽车出口更是暴跌26.7%。此前，美国已于今年4月对汽车进口加征了25%的关税。 与此同时，日本对中国的出口也下降了近5%。对墨西哥的出口下降了近20%，墨西哥是日本汽车制造 商在北美的重要汽车组装中心。特朗普已将上调进口关税的实施日期推迟至8月1日，以便为谈判争取时 间，但到目前为止，双方尚未达成任何协议。 上个月，日本出口总额接近9.2万亿日元，这是连续第二个月出现下滑。随着进口小幅增长0.2%，当月 贸易顺差为1530亿日元，而5月份则出现了6376亿日元的贸易逆差。 今年上半年，日本出口总额达到53.4万亿日元，增长3.6%；进口总额为55.6万亿日元，增长1.3%。 日本和美国一直在进行贸易谈判，日本官员强调日本是美国的重要盟友。海关数据显示，2024年日本近 五分之一的出口流向美国，因此达成一项贸易协议对日本经济至关重要。 特朗普政府一直关注大米，这个领 ...