印度与阿联酋的《全面经济伙伴关系协定》于2022年5月签署并生效，3年来取得了较为显著的成效。根 据印度官方公布的数据，2024至2025财年，印度与阿联酋双边贸易额已突破1000亿美元，同比增长 19.6％，阿联酋成为印度第三大贸易伙伴。双边非石油贸易增长尤为迅猛，根据阿联酋官方公布数据， 2024年双边非石油贸易额超过654亿美元，同比增长20.5％，2025年上半年更是达到376亿美元，同比增 长33.9％，印度目前是阿联酋最大的非石油产品出口目的地。与此同时，截至2025年7月，阿联酋对印 度直接投资累计达230亿美元，其中CEPA生效3年来新增投资超过104亿美元，阿联酋已经成为印度第七 大外资来源国。作为促进贸易便利化的重要举措，印度与阿联酋两国本地货币结算机制和相关倡议也在 稳步推进，印度数字支付系统UPI已经在阿联酋成功落地。 （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 印度总理莫迪近日出访中东，与阿曼签署《全面经济伙伴关系协定》（CEPA），阿曼也成为继阿联酋 之后，与印度签署CEPA的第二个中东地区国家。印度商业和工业部长戈亚尔表示，协定将提升印度和 阿曼两国出口产品价格竞争力，助力阿曼成为印度企 ...

Core Insights - India's trade balance has reached a significant turning point, with a record merchandise trade deficit of $41.68 billion in October, compared to $26.22 billion in the same month last year [1] - Merchandise exports fell by 11.8% to $34.38 billion, marking the lowest level in 11 months, while imports surged by 16.66% to a historic high of $76.06 billion [1] - The surge in gold imports, which increased by 200% to $14.7 billion, was driven by consumer demand during the festive season, particularly the Diwali festival [2] Trade Performance - Exports to the United States decreased by 8.6% to $6.3 billion, with declines also noted in exports to the UAE (-10.2%), Netherlands (-22.75%), and the UK (-27.16%) [1] - Non-oil and non-gemstone jewelry exports fell by 10.15% to $28.14 billion, with significant declines in engineering goods (-16.71%), pharmaceuticals (-5.15%), organic and inorganic chemicals (-21.02%), and garments (-12.88%) [1] - Gem and jewelry exports dropped nearly 31% in October, with cut and polished diamond exports down by nearly 27% [2] Economic Impact - The gem and jewelry sector employs approximately 5 million people and contributes about 7% to India's GDP, indicating that the decline in exports could have broader economic implications [2] - ICRA Research forecasts a decrease in merchandise imports in the months following the festive season, but warns of a potential significant widening of the current account deficit to 2.4% to 2.5% of GDP in the third quarter of FY2025 [3] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have seen some softening of positions, but no agreement has been reached yet [3]

Core Insights - India's goods trade deficit reached a record high of $41.7 billion in October, driven by a surge in gold imports and the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [1][2] Trade Deficit and Imports - The trade deficit significantly exceeded Reuters poll estimates of $28.8 billion and surpassed the previous record of $37.8 billion set in November 2024 [2] - Gold imports in October amounted to $14.7 billion, marking an increase of nearly 200% compared to the same month last year, with consumers estimated to have spent $11 billion during the five-day festival period [2] Exports and Tariff Impact - Exports to the U.S. declined for the second consecutive month, falling 8.5% year-on-year in October to $6.3 billion due to the 50% tariffs implemented at the end of August [3] - Despite the decline, the U.S. remained the largest export destination for India, with shipments worth $52 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year [3] - Key exports such as gems and jewelry fell by 29.5% to $2.3 billion, while engineering goods decreased by 16.7% to $9.4 billion [4] Future Outlook - Merchandise imports are expected to decrease in November and December 2025 as gold imports decline post-festival season, alongside a potential increase in exports [5] - India's current account deficit is projected to widen to 2.4-2.5% of GDP in the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026, with a CAD to GDP ratio of around 1.2% for fiscal year 2026 if U.S. tariffs remain in place [6] Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have yet to yield a deal, although both sides are softening their positions, with hints from U.S. President Trump about potential tariff reductions [7] - India has increased oil and gas purchases from the U.S. to address the trade surplus and is expected to buy agricultural products as well [7]

Core Insights - India's trade deficit in October reached a record high of $41.68 billion, influenced by increased gold imports and a decline in exports to the U.S. [1] - The trade deficit in September was already elevated at $32.15 billion, marking a 13-month high [1] - Economists had initially projected the October trade deficit to be $28 billion, lower than the previous month's figure [1] Trade Data Summary - Exports to the U.S. fell nearly 9% year-on-year in October, decreasing from $6.91 billion to $6.31 billion, although there was a recovery compared to September [1] - Imports from the U.S. rose from $3.98 billion in September to $4.47 billion in October [1] - Gold imports in October surged to $14.7 billion, up from $9.6 billion in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trade relationship between the United States and India is showing signs of thawing as new rounds of bilateral trade agreement negotiations have been restarted, although India remains cautiously optimistic about the outcomes [2][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - On September 16, a new round of bilateral trade agreement negotiations was initiated in New Delhi, marking a positive signal in the previously strained relationship [4]. - The U.S. delegation, led by Brendan Lynch, aims to engage with Indian officials to restart trade discussions [4]. - The negotiations were originally scheduled for late August but were postponed due to the imposition of high tariffs on Indian goods by the U.S. [5]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The U.S. has imposed a total tariff rate of 50% on Indian imports, significantly affecting trade dynamics [5][10]. - In August, India's exports to the U.S. dropped from $8.01 billion in July to $6.86 billion, indicating the immediate impact of the tariffs [11]. - Overall, India's total exports fell to $35.1 billion in August, the lowest in nine months, with a trade deficit narrowing to $26.49 billion [12]. Group 3: Economic Projections - Analysts predict that the U.S. tariff policy could result in a loss of approximately $8 billion in exports for India, particularly affecting sectors like gems, jewelry, textiles, and chemicals [14]. - A think tank estimates that India's exports to the U.S. could decline by over 40% by 2026, potentially dropping to around $50 billion [13]. - The tariffs are expected to threaten hundreds of thousands of jobs in key export sectors, including textiles and jewelry [13].

Core Viewpoint - The cumulative tariff rate imposed by the US on Indian goods has reached 50%, which includes a 25% retaliatory tariff and a 25% punitive tariff, effective from August 27 [3][4]. Economic Impact - The GDP growth forecast for India in FY2026 has been revised down from 6.2% to 6.0% due to the impact of higher tariffs, assuming the punitive tariffs last only three months [3][6]. - If the tariffs remain at 50% for the entire FY2026, the GDP impact could be approximately 0.4 percentage points, or an annualized rate of 0.8 percentage points [6]. - The US is India's largest export destination, accounting for nearly 20% of total exports (approximately $86.5 billion), which represents about 2.2% of FY2025 GDP [6]. - Key export sectors affected include electronics, textiles, gems and jewelry, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, industrial machinery, and household goods [6]. Response Measures - The Indian government is expected to implement targeted fiscal and credit support, including an "export promotion plan" worth ₹250 billion (approximately 0.07% of GDP) to mitigate the impact of higher tariffs [7]. - Monetary and liquidity support is anticipated, with expectations of rate cuts in October and December due to moderate inflation and slowing growth [7]. - Reforms are being introduced, including changes to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and a new income tax bill aimed at simplifying tax laws [7]. - In the medium term, India is expected to focus on diversifying its export markets [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a 25% punitive tariff on India, primarily targeting oil purchases from Russia, leading to an overall tariff rate of 50% on Indian exports [1] - India has reduced its oil imports from Russia by 2% year-on-year, importing 380.5 million barrels from January to July, while increasing imports from the U.S. by 50% to 60.7 million barrels [1] - The increase in tariffs may disrupt India's key supply chains, particularly in the gem and jewelry sector, which exports $10 billion to the U.S., accounting for 30% of its total exports [2] Group 2 - Modi's government is facing pressure due to Trump's demands for India to open its dairy and genetically modified corn markets, which are critical to Indian agriculture [2] - The potential increase in import costs from Gulf countries could rise by $5 billion, risking domestic inflation [1] - Brazil is also affected by the tariffs and is in discussions with India on how to collectively respond to U.S. tariffs [2]

Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. has announced an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, raising the total tariff rate to 50%, making India one of the countries with the highest tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1] - Analysts predict that the Indian stock market will face adjustment pressure, particularly in sectors such as oil, pharmaceuticals, textiles, footwear, and jewelry, which are expected to be the most affected [1][4] Group 2: Market Reaction - The Indian benchmark SENSEX index opened lower but quickly rebounded, stabilizing with a decline of about 0.2%, while the Nifty 50 index also showed a similar pattern [3] - Market participants believe the initial muted response may be due to expectations that India has sufficient time for negotiations, with some analysts suggesting the tariff increase may be more symbolic than substantive [3][4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - If the trade relationship with the U.S. deteriorates, especially amid slowing economic growth, investors may adopt a cautious long-term outlook on the Indian stock market [4] - Foreign investors sold $2 billion worth of Indian stocks in July and an additional $900 million in August, indicating a trend of withdrawal from the Indian market [4] Group 4: Sector-Specific Impacts - Approximately 20% of India's export goods (accounting for 2% of GDP) are directed towards the U.S., with sectors like gems and jewelry, apparel, footwear, textiles, and chemicals being the most vulnerable [6] - The pharmaceutical sector, despite being perceived as resilient, has seen significant declines, with the NSE Nifty pharmaceutical index breaking key technical support levels [7]

Group 1 - The trade tensions between the US and India are escalating, with the US imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which is part of a broader strategy by President Trump to prioritize American interests [1][2] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries have stalled, particularly over agricultural products, which are a significant point of contention [2][3] - India's average tariff rate is significantly higher than that of the US, with an average of 17% compared to the US's 3.3%, and agricultural tariffs reaching as high as 39% [2] Group 2 - India's import of Russian oil has become a focal point of the trade dispute, with Trump accusing India of profiting from reselling this oil on the open market [1][4] - In response to the tariffs, Indian Prime Minister Modi has called for a promotion of domestic products, aligning with his "Make in India" initiative to bolster local manufacturing [5][6] - The potential impact of the tariffs could lead to a significant decrease in India's exports to the US, with estimates suggesting a drop of nearly 30%, affecting sectors like apparel and pharmaceuticals [6][7] Group 3 - The trade relationship between the US and India is crucial, with the US being India's largest export destination, accounting for 18% of India's total exports in 2024, up from 6% in 2006 [6] - The imposition of tariffs could result in a revenue loss for India ranging from $7 billion to $10 billion, particularly affecting the jewelry and pharmaceutical sectors [7] - Investors are reacting cautiously to the trade tensions, as evidenced by a slight decline in Indian stock indices following the announcement of the tariffs [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. has extended the "reciprocal tariffs" delay by 90 days, pushing the implementation date from July 9 to August 1, while announcing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries [1] - The EU is one of the economies most at risk from U.S. tariffs, with potential tariffs on EU goods possibly soaring to 50% if no agreement is reached by August 1 [3] - Japan's GDP could decline by 0.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2029 if subjected to a 25% tariff, with significant impacts on its aircraft parts and construction machinery industries [6][8] Group 2 - Canada has made significant concessions in trade negotiations with the U.S., including the cancellation of a digital services tax to reach a comprehensive trade arrangement [4][5] - Southeast Asian countries, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, expressed frustration over the U.S. tariff letters, feeling that their efforts to negotiate trade agreements were undermined [11][12] - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on India includes mixed effects, with certain sectors like pharmaceuticals possibly gaining leverage, while broader export categories may face challenges [10]