据报道，"我们与中国相处得很好。" 美国总统特朗普在华盛顿一场人工智能峰会上，突然抛出这句看 似轻描淡写的话。 前不久，他刚对菲律宾总统马科斯说过几乎一样的台词。要知道，就在几个月前，这位以"关税大棒"闻 名的总统还在威胁对中国商品加征关税。是什么让他的态度发生了180度大转弯？ 答案藏在最新公布的贸易数据里——2025年6月，中国从美国进口的原油、液化天然气（LNG）和煤 炭，几乎全部归零。 特朗普（资料图） 一、归零的数据：美国能源出口遭遇"断头台" 中国海关总署的数据显示，6月份，中国自美国进口的原油彻底归零——这是近三年来的第一次。要知 道，去年同期的进口额还有8亿美元。液化天然气（LNG）更惨，已经连续四个月没有一丁点对华出 口。煤炭？去年6月中国还买了9000万美元的美国煤，今年6月只剩下几百美元的订单，几乎可以忽略不 计。 为什么会出现这种断崖式下跌？关税，还是关税。 4月份中美关税战升级，双方互加"对等关税"，部分能源产品的税率一度飙。这么高的税率，进口商根 本无利可图，贸易自然就停了。 美国能源商这下傻眼了。中国是全球最大的能源买家之一，突然不买了，他们的库存和现金流立刻吃 紧。更糟的是，这 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. is increasingly dependent on China despite initiating a tariff war, as China's industrial output has surpassed that of the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has conducted two rounds of trade talks with China and has ceased its tariff war, seeking cooperation on rare earth regulations [3] - The U.S. initiated the tariff war primarily to increase fiscal revenue, but this has led to rising prices that are being passed onto American consumers [5] Group 2 - The trade scale between China and the U.S. is significant, with China enjoying a large trade surplus from the U.S. market [6] - The U.S. Republican government’s actions are seen as detrimental to the interests of ordinary American citizens, as recent budget bills have favored the wealthy while burdening the general populace [6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for citizens to contribute to repaying national debt highlights the government's strategy of shifting financial burdens onto the public [8]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan has achieved the best results among countries that maintain a trade surplus with the United States [1] Group 1 - Japan's trade surplus with the United States is highlighted as a significant achievement [1]

Group 1 - Thailand is nearing a crucial trade agreement with the U.S. to avoid punitive tariffs of up to 36% on its exports, which is vital for its export-driven economy [1][4] - The negotiations have progressed over 90%, with Thailand expected to submit final details to U.S. trade officials shortly, aiming for a new tariff rate around 20% [1][2] - The U.S. is Thailand's largest export market, accounting for 18% of its total shipments in 2024, and the recent negotiations have led to a 15% increase in exports in the first five months of this year [1][4] Group 2 - Thailand has expanded its list of U.S. goods to be subject to zero tariffs from over 60% to 90%, including significant purchases of U.S. agricultural products and investments in projects like the Alaska gas project [2][4] - The trade surplus with the U.S. reached $46 billion last year, which is a central issue in the ongoing trade friction [4] - The Thai government is making concessions to minimize the economic impact of punitive tariffs, especially amid rising domestic debt and weak consumer spending [4][5] Group 3 - The final stages of negotiations are focused on addressing remaining requests from the U.S., with expectations for a tariff rate comparable to those negotiated with Vietnam and Indonesia [3][4] - The Thai government is assessing its capacity to meet the U.S.'s expectations regarding policy formulation and issue handling [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a paradox where China's trade surplus is expanding while the Renminbi (RMB) is depreciating, raising questions about the underlying economic dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Surplus and Currency Dynamics - Since 2022, despite rapid industrial upgrades and increasing export competitiveness, China's trade surplus has reached new highs, yet the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has declined by over 15% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025 [3]. - According to Balassa's theory, faster productivity growth in a country's trade sector typically leads to currency appreciation, a trend observed in Japan, but this has not been the case for China [3]. Group 2: Demand Insufficiency and Market Failures - Zhang Bin attributes the continuous depreciation of the RMB since 2022 primarily to insufficient demand, which also explains the expanding trade surplus and significant net capital outflows [5]. - The insufficient demand has resulted in low inflation and weak asset price expectations, indicating a market failure characterized by price stickiness and coordination failures among market participants [5]. - Individual rational behaviors, such as reduced investment by businesses and decreased consumption by households, collectively contribute to a negative spiral of income and expenditure, exerting downward pressure on demand and asset prices, leading to depreciation of the nominal and actual effective RMB exchange rates [5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Currency Valuation - Experts, including Zhang Bin, believe the RMB is undervalued and recommend timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies to achieve a reasonable valuation of the currency [5]. - If overcoming the demand insufficiency in the short term proves challenging, maintaining a wide fluctuation range for the RMB against the USD while firmly defending the upper and lower limits of RMB exchange rate fluctuations is advised [5].

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula expressed concerns over the 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian products, indicating potential for a trade war if negotiations do not yield results [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - Lula stated that Brazilian Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, and Trade, Alckmin, is negotiating with the U.S. alongside the Brazilian Foreign Ministry [1] - The President criticized the rationale behind the tariffs, arguing that it is inappropriate to use judicial rulings to threaten any party involved [1] - Lula highlighted that the U.S. President Trump lacks understanding of the trade surplus situation, noting that Brazil has faced a trade deficit of $410 billion with the U.S. over the past 15 years [1]

Core Insights - South Korea's exports from July 1 to July 20 decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating a decline in trade activity [1] - Imports also fell by 4.3% during the same period, reflecting reduced demand for foreign goods [1] - The trade surplus for this period was recorded at $465 million, suggesting a positive balance despite the declines in both exports and imports [1] Export and Import Analysis - The year-on-year decline in exports suggests potential challenges in South Korea's key export markets or sectors [1] - The import decrease may indicate a slowdown in domestic consumption or production needs [1] - The trade surplus, while positive, may not fully offset concerns regarding the declining trends in both exports and imports [1]

Group 1 - South Korea's export value from July 1 to July 20 decreased by 2.2% year-on-year [1] - South Korea's import value during the same period decreased by 4.3% year-on-year [1] - The preliminary trade surplus for this period was recorded at 470 million USD [1]

Group 1 - Argentina's trade surplus for June was reported at $906 million, exceeding the expected $700 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's trade surplus in June reached $906 million, exceeding the expected $700 million [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Trade Performance - In June, Argentina's exports totaled $7.27 billion, while imports amounted to $6.37 billion [1]