Group 1: Report Summary - The report analyzes the settings of domestic and international stock-bond constant indices and their impacts on underlying assets and the asset management product ecosystem. Since 2024, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. has released a series of stock-bond constant indices, with 9 allocation strategies, 5 stock-bond ratio gradients, and a total of 39 stock-bond constant ratio indices [1][2][112]. - Stock indices in the stock-bond constant indices focus on 2 smart beta indices (dividend and cash flow) and the A500 index representing industry-balanced mid- and large-cap stocks. Bond indices correspond to a combination of medium- to high-grade credit and treasury and policy financial bond indices [1][2][112]. - From a 3-year perspective, stock-bond constant indices are in a low-drawdown, medium-elasticity range. The stock-bond ratio determines cost-effectiveness, the bond style determines the return bottom, and the equity index determines return elasticity. Historically, the 20:80 stock-bond constant index has a better risk-return ratio than many secondary bond funds [2][100][113]. Group 2: Background of Stock-Bond Constant Indices - In 1952, Harry M. Markowitz proposed the modern portfolio theory, providing a mathematical basis for asset allocation. Diversified asset allocation has become an important direction in wealth management, and multi-asset funds are key tools for implementing this strategy [15]. - The constant ratio strategy, especially the stock-bond constant ratio, is a common strategy in multi-asset index compilation. In the US market, the correlation between stocks and bonds varies with inflation and monetary policy. In the domestic market, stocks and bonds are mainly negatively correlated, and the correlation among stock indices has been decreasing [16][17][20]. Group 3: Basic Information and Risk-Return Characteristics of Stock-Bond Constant Indices 3.1 Basic Information of Stock-Bond Constant Series Indices - As of the end of November 2025, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. has released 100 multi-asset indices, covering strategies such as constant ratio, risk parity, volatility control, target date, and target risk [28]. - The newly released stock-bond constant series indices have 9 allocation strategies and 5 stock-bond ratio gradients, with a total of 39 indices. Stock indices focus on dividend and cash flow smart beta indices and the A500 index, while bond indices are a combination of medium- to high-grade credit and treasury and policy financial bond indices [32]. 3.2 Components and Industry Characteristics of Stock-Bond Constant Indices - The report focuses on the component stocks and sample adjustment of stock indices in stock-bond constant indices. For example, the CSI Dividend Index adjusts its samples once a year, and the CSI 800 Cash Flow Index adjusts quarterly [43][50]. - There are differences in the component stocks among the CSI Dividend Index, CSI 800 Cash Flow Index, and CSI A500 Index. The A500 Index emphasizes industry balance, while the Dividend Index is more concentrated in the financial and energy sectors [58]. 3.3 Return, Volatility, and Drawdown Performance of Stock-Bond Constant Indices - In the past 3 years, the CSI 800 Cash Flow Index has a higher annualized return, followed by dividend-related indices, and the A500 Index has the lowest return among the three. Among bond indices, medium- to high-grade credit bonds have a higher return-volatility ratio [61]. - In the past year, the performance of these indices has changed. The growth style represented by innovation has outperformed the dividend style, and the A500 Index has exceeded the CSI 800 Cash Flow and dividend-related indices in terms of return [74]. Group 4: Comparison between Stock-Bond Constant Indices and Active Fixed-Income Plus Products - Stock-bond constant indices have strong defensive capabilities. Based on the long-term weak negative correlation between stocks and bonds, the 10/90 and 20/80 stock-bond constant indices can reduce volatility and enhance portfolio defense [93]. - In the past three years, the overall return of stock-bond constant indices has been better than that of the WIND Secondary Bond Fund Equal-Weighted Index, and their volatility is lower. The 20:80 stock-bond constant index performs better than most secondary bond funds in the same maximum drawdown range [96][100]. - If stock-bond constant ETFs are launched, due to their low fees and high liquidity, some funds may switch from secondary bond funds to stock-bond constant ETFs, which may cause passive selling of secondary capital bonds and local structural frictions [106][108].

除此之外，ETF产品的持续扩容也对市场发展提供了土壤。截至12月26日，以基金成立日为准，今年新发行ETF共计352只，较去年发行的169只实现翻 倍，同时产品类型创新加速，覆盖领域从宽基指数向行业主题、策略型（如增强策略、低波红利）、跨境资产延伸，而债券型ETF与另类投资ETF的发 展，也进一步丰富了产品矩阵。 不可否认，ETF的黄金岁月已经来临。目前，国内ETF市场已从"缓步积累"转换到了"跨越式增长"的新进阶。机构普遍认为，ETF正逐步成为资产配置的 核心基础设施，行业竞争也将从产品数量比拼转向综合服务能力的较量。在不久的将来，ETF规模突破十万亿元或指日可待。 年内连破三个万亿关口 据新经济e线了解，今年可以说是ETF发展的全面突破之年。进入2025年，黄金、A股等各类型资产轮番表现，增量资金持续涌入ETF市场，通过ETF进行 大类资产配置，股票、债券、商品等各类型ETF规模不断增长，推动国内ETF总规模分别在4月、8月和12月连续实现了4万亿、5万亿和6万亿这三个万亿 级的历史跨越，这一发展态势是前所未有。 ETF市场再迎新里程碑。 Wind数据显示，截至12月26日，全市场ETF总规模达到6030 ...

Core Viewpoint - The eighth New Wealth Best Investment Advisor selection has concluded, highlighting the evolution of the investment advisory industry from product sales to asset management and long-term client relationships [1][75]. Group 1: Professional Development and Industry Trends - The investment advisory team is rapidly maturing, showcasing high research standards and a strong client service awareness, which is essential for the high-quality development of the wealth management industry [2]. - The transition from "product sellers" to "asset allocators and companions" is becoming increasingly evident, emphasizing the importance of professional skills, communication, and trust [10][44]. - The industry is moving from "scale expansion" to "deep service," with a focus on understanding clients and navigating market fluctuations [14][67]. Group 2: Client-Centric Approach - Advisors are encouraged to embrace a "buy-side perspective," focusing on long-term client interests and developing cross-cycle asset allocation capabilities [10][62]. - The importance of enhancing client experience and service quality is recognized as a core direction for the asset management industry [24][38]. - Trust and responsibility are highlighted as critical elements for advisors to effectively support clients in wealth growth and risk management [41][46]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future of the investment advisory industry lies in those who can adapt to market changes and maintain a commitment to client trust and professional integrity [14][75]. - The integration of technology and quantitative tools is expected to enhance the professionalism and replicability of advisory services [46]. - The industry is poised for significant growth, driven by the evolving wealth structure of residents and the deepening reforms in the capital market [75].

Group 1: CDS Prices and Market Trends - Oracle's 5-year CDS price reached 145.5 basis points, significantly higher than Apple's 25.7, Amazon's 35.9, Google's 39.9, and Microsoft's 35.9 basis points, but lower than the high-yield bond basket's 315.1 basis points[4] - Despite Oracle's CDS price increase, the North American high-yield bond basket's CDS price fell to 315.1 basis points, the lowest since September 26[6] - Investors expect the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts to be lower and delayed, with the SOFR futures curve's low point at 3.1%, unchanged from October but lower than December's 3.2%[10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 rose to 4.3%, up from 3.8% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since Q3 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[15] - The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index's equity risk premium (ERP) stands at 4.2%, below the 16-year average by one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[17] - China's 10-year government bond forward arbitrage return is at 35 basis points, 65 basis points higher than December 2016 levels[21] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - Investors maintain expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut rates further, with the Euribor futures curve's low point at 2.1%, higher than previous months[12] - The divergence in the copper-gold price ratio and offshore RMB exchange rate signals inconsistent trends, with the copper-gold ratio dropping to 2.7 and the offshore RMB rising to 7.0[27] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.8, above the past 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income[29]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's journey in macroeconomic research over the past decade, emphasizing the importance of adapting research methodologies to current market conditions and the evolving economic landscape [5][10]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The author predicts a weakening of the US dollar, driven by a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy towards a more accommodative stance, which is expected to exceed market expectations [7]. - The article discusses the rise of gold as a significant asset, highlighting the author's research on the changing dynamics of gold pricing and central bank purchases, which filled a gap in market research [7][8]. - The author notes that the traditional macroeconomic frameworks need to be revised to better reflect the realities of the new economic phase, particularly in light of the limitations of GDP as a growth measure [14]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The article anticipates a stable macroeconomic environment in the coming year, suggesting that while the economy may remain steady, the stock market may not necessarily mirror economic trends due to structural changes brought about by new economic factors [14][15]. - The author highlights the role of liquidity in driving stock prices, indicating that a favorable global liquidity environment, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, could support a bullish market trend [15]. - The article suggests that various asset classes, including stocks and bonds, may experience a phase of resonance in the upcoming year, driven by the recovery and expansion of balance sheets across economic sectors [15].

Group 1 - The journey to wealth begins with acquiring the first pot of gold, which is crucial for ordinary individuals to unlock the door to success [1] - Knowledge and skills are essential for transforming ideas into practical applications, particularly in entrepreneurship, where a solid foundation can lead to identifying market opportunities [3] - Individuals from less privileged backgrounds can still embark on their wealth journey by learning practical skills, which can lead to job opportunities and income generation [5] Group 2 - Building a strong network of relationships is vital for project success, as it provides resources, support, and opportunities for personal development [7] - Asset accumulation is a key step in upgrading wealth, with various forms of assets such as real estate, stocks, and intellectual property playing significant roles in financial growth [9] - Achieving the first pot of gold requires continuous effort in learning, entrepreneurship, relationship building, and asset management, leading to potential wealth creation [9]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation for investors, which involves distributing funds across various asset types based on risk tolerance, investment goals, and time horizon to achieve risk diversification and optimize returns [1] - The Zhejiang Investor Education Base promotes a "communication creates value" philosophy, focusing on interactive investor relations and financial information services [1] - The organization explores an "Internet + Investor Education" model, combining online and offline methods to make investor education services easily accessible [1]

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，高频数据显示Q4有效需求不足持续挤压企业盈利空间。人民币升值或暂时接近到位，此前年底结汇需求集中释放使人民 币汇率明显升值，但央行或开始有意控制汇率升值幅度，中间价破7仍需企业套保率及跨境人民币结算占比进一步提升，预计明年中 后期大概率时机成熟。 海外方面，日本央行议息会议后，近期植田和男称正稳步接近2%通胀目标，将继续加息。美国Q3经济增速超预期，其中过半为个人 消费支出项所贡献，抵押贷款利率的高位回落对地产的传导仍有时滞，但是能显著影响当期消费。 资产方面，A股权益市场配置行情延续，但短期波动或将加剧。过去两周处于海外市场交易清淡期，但静极思动，新年过后外部扰 动或将加大。目前美元兑日元仍高于155，一旦日本央行干预汇市或美联储降息预期降温，海外市场仍将对国内权益资产造成阶段扰 动。 国内方面， 1）高频数据显示2025年四季度以来有效需求不足正在持续挤压企业盈利空间，导致"以价换量"边际效应锐减。11月当月 工业企业利润增速仍在负区间运行，并且跌幅较上月再度扩大了7.6个百分点。2）人民币升值或暂时接近到位。临近年底结汇需求 集中释放推动人民币汇率明显升值 ...

□本报记者 王雪青 中金基金管理有限公司混合资产部负责人、基金经理于质冰回忆起团队刚组建时的场景，分外感慨。 今年8月，这支在公司内部"创业"的团队——中金基金混合资产部成立。部门从最早的两个人，到如今 四人并肩，在管产品达到9只，管理资金规模约38亿元，产品囊括不同风险收益特征，形成了"固收+"产 品矩阵雏形。 近日，于质冰接受了中国证券报记者的专访，讲述了他的投资理念、团队规划与市场观点。作为权益投 资出身、管理过社保基金的"固收+"业务负责人，于质冰曾经最多同时管理30-40个账户，对各种风格策 略和大类资产配置具有丰富经验。在低利率环境下，公司选中于质冰出任混合资产部负责人，管理"固 收+"团队，希望在稳健的基础上创造收益，力争在"固收+"发展快车道上"跑"出差异化与竞争力。 低利率环境下要做好"固收+" 打造综合研究框架 在于质冰看来，投资既是科学，也是艺术。科学体现在系统与纪律，艺术则蕴含在"天时、地利、人 和"的投研框架与决策权衡中。 "天时是周期，包括宏观经济周期、产业生命周期与政策导向。地利是公司在行业中的竞争地位与护城 河。人和的核心是价格，反映市场预期与估值水平。"于质冰用这三个字，构建 ...

Wind数据显示，截至12月28日，FOF今年以来的发行份额飙升至838.28亿份，创下历史第二高峰，FOF 产品总数量和规模也双双创下新高，与三年前的寒冬形成鲜明对比。各种暖风频吹：保险机构加大配 置，银行渠道主动推优，求稳资金正从理财涌入FOF。 这是市场情绪的短暂轮回，还是资产配置需求觉醒下的必然回归？当"大而全"的粗放模式被摒弃，精准 细分与工具化成为新竞赛规则，这场由市场、产品、需求三重逻辑驱动的热度，究竟能走多远？ 近日，中国证券报记者调研多家公募机构与一线业务负责人，解码FOF逆袭背后的推手，并探讨在"冰 火两重天"的当下，FOF未来将走向何方。 □本报记者 张凌之 FOF市场热度重燃 FOF又火了。 从"避之不及"到"真香定律"，人气一度跌入冰点的FOF，正悄然上演王者归来的戏码。 段。 Wind数据显示，截至12月28日，全市场今年以来共新成立87只FOF，发行份额为838.28亿份，这一发行 份额是自2017年9月首批FOF发行以来的第二高峰，仅次于2021年的1083.62亿份。与此同时，FOF产品 总数量和规模双双创下新高。截至12月28日，FOF总数量达到549只，总规模达2377. ...