随着居民财富管理需求升级与老龄化社会加速到来，FOF基金凭借专业配置、分散风险、适配养老等优 势，正迎来广阔发展空间。民生加银基金FOF团队秉持长期主义理念，从需求洞察到策略落地，构建起 覆盖全周期的资产配置生态，助力投资者穿越市场波动，实现财富稳健增值。 注：数据来源银河证券，截至2025.6.27。过去一年（52周）、过去两年（104周）同类产品为银河证券 养老目标风险FOF(权益资产0-30%)(A类)。本基金所获评价结果不构成基金业绩的承诺或保证。 民生加银康宁稳健养老目标一年持有期混合(FOF)成立时间为2019年4月26日。民生加银康宁稳健养老目 标一年持有期混合(FOF)A自2020年至2024年每个完整年度收益率及业绩比较基准收益率分别为： 14.23%/9.16%、0.79%/3.15%、-6.06%/-3.09%、-0.71%/0.98%、4.02%/10.73%，成立以来净值增长率及 业绩比较基准收益率分别为24.93%/28.69%。数据来源：产品定期报告，年度数据截至2024.12.31，成立 以来业绩截至2025.6.30。基金过往业绩不预示未来表现。 本基金历任基金经理：于善辉先 ...

Market Overview - In August, domestic stock market indices showed a comprehensive increase, with the Sci-Tech 50 index rising significantly by 28.00%, while the CSI 300 index had a smaller increase of 10.33%. Year-to-date, the Sci-Tech 50 has performed strongly with a rise of 35.63%, compared to the CSI 300's 14.28% [1][5]. - In terms of market style, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in August, and growth stocks outperformed value stocks. Year-to-date, the ChiNext index rose by 34.95%, while the CSI 500 index increased by 23.02% [1][5]. - The best-performing sectors in August were communication (+33.78%), electronics (+23.84%), and non-ferrous metals (+19.67%), while the worst-performing sectors were banking (-1.67%), coal (0.57%), and construction (0.77%) [1][5]. - The bond market saw the total wealth index of corporate bonds increase by 0.03%, while the total wealth index of government bonds decreased by 0.55%. Year-to-date, corporate bonds have outperformed government bonds with a rise of 1.50% compared to 0.10% for government bonds [1][5]. - In the commodity market, major domestic commodity indices showed mixed results, with the Nanhua Gold Index increasing by 1.93% and the Nanhua Energy Chemical Index decreasing by 3.53%. Year-to-date, the Nanhua Gold Index has risen by 25.85%, while the Nanhua Energy Chemical Index has fallen by 8.73% [1][5]. ETF Strategy Performance - The report highlights that ETFs have become a focal point for investors, with various strategies being employed for asset allocation. The selected ETF strategies cover style rotation, quantitative selection, global allocation, bond allocation, and major asset allocation, forming four main strategy categories and seven ETF combinations [2]. - As of August 31, 2025, the style rotation strategy has shown outstanding cumulative returns of 110.25%, surpassing its benchmark by 72.38%. The 80/20 rotation strategy has also performed well with a cumulative return of 53.04%, exceeding its benchmark by 14.86% [2]. - The valuation-selected ETF strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 27.82% year-to-date, outperforming its benchmark by 21.02%. The global allocation strategy has shown a cumulative return of 19.79% over the past three years, exceeding its benchmark by 9.86% [2]. - The dynamic duration strategy has yielded a cumulative return of 19.38% since inception, surpassing its benchmark by 3.99%. The asset rotation strategy has achieved a year-to-date return of 17.05%, exceeding its benchmark by 13.04% [2]. - The asset rotation strategy 2.0 has shown a cumulative return of 14.83% over the past three years, outperforming its benchmark by 10.82% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the safety and reliability of the National Development Bank (NDB) bond ETF as a cornerstone asset, supported by substantial government credit [1] - The NDB bond ETF is regarded as a "quasi-gold bond," trusted by institutional investors and providing a convenient channel for individual investors to access high-quality bonds [1] - The ETF offers five key advantages: stable income, excellent liquidity, low investment threshold, tax-exempt dividend income, and serves as a core asset allocation tool [1] Group 2 - As of September 18, 2025, the NDB bond ETF has shown a 1.53% increase over the past year, with a trading volume of 4.61 billion yuan and an active market turnover rate of 89.56% [2] - The ETF has a maximum drawdown of 0.12% over the past six months, which is the smallest among comparable funds, with a recovery period of 8 days [3] - The management fee for the NDB bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months and aligning with market expectations [1] - HSBC's Chief Investment Officer for Private Banking and Wealth Management in China emphasized the importance of diversified asset allocation across categories, industries, and regions to enhance portfolio resilience in a changing environment [1] - The resumption of the Fed's rate cut cycle may lower dollar cash rates and bond yields in the coming months, increasing the opportunity cost of holding cash assets [1] Group 2 - HSBC recommends positioning in high-quality bonds to prepare for the new round of Fed rate cuts, aiming to lock in current higher yields before further declines in dollar cash rates [1] - The slowdown in U.S. economic growth is expected to decrease the correlation between stocks and bonds, making bonds a crucial tool for diversifying portfolio risk [1] - HSBC maintains a positive outlook on gold as a hedge against global policy, economic growth, and geopolitical uncertainties, while also advocating for alternative assets like infrastructure and renewable energy [1] Group 3 - HSBC continues to favor a geographically diversified strategy in equities, maintaining a positive risk preference for global stocks, particularly in the U.S., Asia, and the UAE markets [1] - In Asia, apart from Chinese stocks, HSBC also sees potential in Singaporean stocks, reflecting an optimistic and diversified growth outlook for the region [2] - The weakening dollar and Fed rate cuts are expected to benefit Asian markets, with local central banks likely to follow suit in cutting rates to support economic growth and risk appetite [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the characteristics of the U.S. stock market, emphasizing its long-term investment potential despite short-term fluctuations [3][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described this rate cut as a "risk management" move, indicating that the Fed is not entering a prolonged rate-cutting cycle, which the market interpreted as a hawkish stance [6]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Characteristics - The U.S. stock market is characterized by high efficiency and low investment difficulty, meaning that information is quickly reflected in stock prices due to the active trading environment [8]. - The market is dominated by institutional investors who possess advanced research capabilities and technology, allowing for rapid information processing and trading [10]. - The diverse participant structure in the U.S. market, including hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds, leads to comprehensive information analysis and price discovery [11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors face challenges in outperforming indices due to the market's efficiency, making long-term holding of low-cost index funds a more rational strategy [12][13]. - The strong fundamentals of U.S. companies, coupled with significant stock buybacks, have driven the long-term bull market, with the S&P 500's price increase primarily attributed to earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [14][16]. - Major U.S. companies have demonstrated robust profitability and have engaged in substantial stock repurchase programs, enhancing earnings per share and supporting stock price appreciation [18][19]. Group 4: Complementarity with A-shares - The article highlights the low correlation between U.S. and A-share markets, suggesting that holding both can mitigate overall portfolio volatility during market downturns [22][26]. - Historical data indicates that during A-share bear markets, U.S. stocks have either remained stable or declined less, providing a buffer for investors [28]. - A balanced allocation between U.S. and A-shares allows investors to capture opportunities in both markets while managing risk effectively [32][34].

Core Insights - The insurance capital is increasingly favoring S funds due to their alignment with long-term investment strategies and the need for stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2] - The investment scale of S funds in China reached 33.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a significant increase of 95.9% compared to 17.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, indicating a growing market interest [1] Group 1: Reasons for Insurance Capital's Preference for S Funds - S funds match the long duration of insurance liabilities, effectively mitigating duration mismatch risks [2][3] - They provide stable, cross-cycle returns by holding non-liquid assets, which is appealing for insurance capital seeking sustainable long-term returns [2] - S funds enhance portfolio diversification and volatility resistance, serving as an alternative asset allocation path [2][3] Group 2: Characteristics of S Funds - S funds invest in funds with clear underlying assets, avoiding the "blind pool risk" associated with traditional private equity funds, thus enhancing safety [3] - The underlying project information is relatively complete, facilitating due diligence and compliance with regulatory requirements [3] - Many existing funds are in the exit phase, providing clear cash return schedules that align with insurance capital's liability needs [3] Group 3: Selection Criteria for S Funds - Insurance capital focuses on asset quality and GP (General Partner) capabilities when selecting S funds [4] - Evaluation criteria include management capabilities, exit success rates, and post-investment management efficiency [5] - Preference is given to projects with clear exit paths, such as IPOs or acquisitions, and those with established revenue and profit [4][5] Group 4: Challenges in S Fund Investment - Valuation difficulties arise due to the diverse nature of underlying assets and information asymmetry between buyers and sellers [6][7] - Conducting thorough due diligence is complicated by the opacity of some underlying projects and potential restrictions in sensitive industries [6] - The complexity of multi-layered structures and the subjective nature of valuations pose additional challenges [6][7] Group 5: Recommendations for Market Improvement - Establishing long-term assessment mechanisms is suggested to align with the nature of S funds as mid-to-long-term equity investment tools [7] - Maintaining policy continuity and developing a robust equity share trading market are recommended to enhance the S fund investment environment [7] Group 6: Future Trends for S Funds - An increase in structured transactions is anticipated, with debt-like structures seeking high certainty and equity-like structures targeting high growth potential [8] - The rise of active management strategies is expected, as buyers with pricing and project selection capabilities will take a more proactive approach [8] - M&A exits are projected to become a significant option, shifting from the traditional reliance on IPOs, necessitating GPs to have M&A experience and resources [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has resumed its rate-cutting cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, with expectations of further cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 1: Future Rate Cuts - Barclays' chief U.S. economist anticipates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December [2] - ICBC International expects a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, citing a shift in focus towards the labor market [2] - HSBC predicts potential rate cuts in December and March, with an increased risk of multiple cuts if labor market data worsens [3] Group 2: Economic Signals - The FOMC's economic projections indicate a lower rate path than previously expected, with three rate cuts anticipated this year [5] - The voting dynamics within the FOMC showed unexpected support for the majority opinion, despite prior dissenting views [5][6] - The Fed's statement reflects a hawkish tone, acknowledging rising inflation while recognizing increased risks in the labor market [6] Group 3: Global Financial Market Impact - Continued rate cuts by the Fed are expected to accelerate global asset repricing, favoring physical assets and precious metals [8] - HSBC emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation across regions and sectors to enhance portfolio resilience [8] - The decline in interest rates is projected to alleviate corporate financing pressures and support earnings expectations in the U.S. equity market [9] Group 4: Emerging Markets Impact - The Fed's easing policy is anticipated to provide more operational space for the People's Bank of China to support economic growth and stabilize the yuan [10] - HSBC maintains a positive outlook on emerging market equities, particularly in Asia, due to favorable conditions stemming from a weaker dollar [10] - The expectation of a weaker dollar may lead to accelerated capital flows into emerging markets, benefiting countries with manufacturing and resource exports [10][11] Group 5: Gold Market Outlook - Despite a negative short-term reaction in gold and silver markets post-Fed meeting, the long-term outlook remains positive due to expected lower U.S. rates and a weaker dollar [12] - HSBC continues to favor gold as a hedge against global policy and economic uncertainties, advocating for a broader asset allocation strategy [13] - The backdrop of declining interest rates and rising risk premiums is expected to provide support for gold prices [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the implications for global financial markets, emphasizing the potential for further rate cuts and the attractiveness of diversified asset allocation, particularly in gold and equities [2][4][11]. Group 1: Future Rate Cuts - Barclays' chief U.S. economist expects two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December [4]. - ICBC International anticipates a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, with a cautious approach to avoid excessive easing that could harm policy credibility [4]. - UBS forecasts a total of 75 basis points in cuts by Q1 2026, with a potential for 200-300 basis points if labor market weakness persists [4]. Group 2: Signals to Watch - The FOMC's economic projections indicate a lower rate path than previously expected, with three rate cuts of 25 basis points this year [8]. - The voting dynamics within the FOMC showed unexpected support for the majority opinion, indicating a cautious stance on aggressive rate cuts [8]. - Market expectations may shift towards a recovery trade following the Fed's economic outlook adjustments [12]. Group 3: Impact on Global Financial Markets - Continued rate cuts by the Fed are expected to accelerate global asset repricing, benefiting physical assets and precious metals [11]. - HSBC emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation across various sectors and regions to enhance portfolio resilience [11]. - Macroeconomic fundamentals are expected to support U.S. equities, with lower interest rates alleviating corporate financing pressures [12]. Group 4: Effects on Emerging Markets - The Fed's easing policy may provide more operational space for the People's Bank of China to support economic growth and stabilize the yuan [14]. - HSBC maintains a positive outlook on global equities, particularly in the U.S. and Asia, including Chinese and Singaporean stocks [14]. - Emerging market equities are viewed as having strong investment value due to favorable conditions such as a weaker dollar and easing monetary policies [14]. Group 5: Outlook for Gold Prices - The initial negative reaction in gold and silver markets post-Fed meeting is seen as a typical profit-taking scenario rather than a fundamental shift [16]. - HSBC continues to favor gold as a hedge against global uncertainties and advocates for a broader asset allocation strategy [18]. - Macroeconomic conditions, including declining interest rates and rising risk premiums, are expected to support gold prices in the long term [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market (港股), particularly in light of the anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which are expected to significantly impact global asset prices [3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The article highlights the recent surge in gold prices, which rose from $3,448 to approximately $3,650 per ounce, marking a historical high [1]. - The A-share market (大A) has also experienced a significant rally, with the index climbing from 3,500 to nearly 3,900 points, creating substantial wealth effects [3]. - The article predicts that the Hong Kong stock market (港股) is undervalued compared to the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index's average P/E ratio around 10 times, while the CSI 300 Index's P/E ratio is at 14 times [3]. Group 2: Currency and Capital Flow - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the RMB, which has appreciated from 7.24 to a low of 7.10 against the USD, indicating a robust currency position [4]. - This strength in the RMB is expected to attract international capital to RMB-denominated assets, particularly in the Hong Kong market, as it offers easier access for foreign investors compared to the A-share market [4]. Group 3: Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policies - The article notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve is predicted to cut interest rates three times this year, which could lead to a significant decline in the dollar index and create panic in dollar-denominated assets [5][9]. - Non-dollar assets, including commodities and capital markets in non-U.S. countries, are expected to benefit from this environment, with the Hong Kong market likely to see substantial price increases [6][9]. - The technical analysis suggests that if the Hang Seng Technology Index breaks through the 6,100 level, it could aim for the next resistance level of 11,000, indicating a strong upward potential [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The article advises investors to prepare for a significant reshuffling of asset prices following the anticipated interest rate cuts, suggesting that early positioning in favorable assets could yield substantial returns [10][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of selecting undervalued assets with strong growth potential, particularly in the context of the upcoming changes in monetary policy [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of setting realistic investment expectations and understanding the nature of fund investments, highlighting that long-term stable returns are more common than short-term high returns [4][6]. Group 1: Investment Expectations - Investors often have unrealistic expectations of achieving quick wealth through investments, which can lead to poor decision-making [4]. - Historical data shows that the annualized return of the S&P 500 index is approximately 8% from 2004 to 2024, while the annualized return of the CSI 300 index is about 7% during the same period [4]. - High investment expectations can lead to emotional distress and impulsive decisions, making it crucial for investors to set appropriate return expectations [6]. Group 2: Investment Timing and Strategies - Accurately timing market entry is extremely difficult, and a more scientific approach is to use methods like dollar-cost averaging or systematic investment plans [7]. - Dollar-cost averaging allows investors to spread their investments over time, reducing the risk of investing at market peaks [7]. - It is recommended to diversify investments across different asset types to mitigate risks [7]. Group 3: Understanding Fund Performance - New investors often misinterpret high net asset values as high risk, but past performance does not necessarily predict future results [8][9]. - The article illustrates that regardless of the net asset value, the total asset value can be the same if the funds perform equally over time [9]. - Investors should focus on the fund's investment strategy, the manager's long-term capabilities, and the overall research strength of the fund company rather than just the net asset value [9]. Group 4: Fund Dividends - High dividend funds are often favored by investors, but dividends are a distribution of earnings that reduce the fund's net asset value [10]. - Investors can choose between cash dividends or reinvesting dividends to purchase more fund shares, which does not change the total asset value [10][11]. - The decision to take cash or reinvest dividends should align with the investor's outlook on the fund's future performance [12].