纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价26日上涨59.2美元，收于每盎司4562.0美 元，涨幅为1.31%。 受避险需求增加和看涨技术指标拉动，黄金、白银价格当日再创历史新高。其中2月黄金期货价格一度 达到每盎司4584.0美元，3月白银期货价格突破每盎司79美元。 COMEX白银主力合约大涨11.15%，这意味着在日线图上，其价格呈直线上升。有分析人士认为，从时 间角度来看，这种价格走势不可持续，表明短期或中期市场顶部即将到来。 分析人士说，白银相对强弱指数（RSI）目前的RSI读数为93.86，是自1980年1月以来的最高值，已严重 超买，当时RSI曾创下98.77的历史最高纪录。任何高于70.0的RSI读数都表明市场上涨过度，即将出现 回调修正。 本周纽约商品交易所黄金期货相对强弱指数也创下历史新高，达到95.94。黄金RSI历史第二高值出现在 1980年1月，当时达到94.69。 铂金价格也呈飙升态势。避险情绪推动铂金价格上涨，地缘政治紧张局势升级以及近期美元走软也起了 推波助澜的作用。美国封锁委内瑞拉油轮并加大对马杜罗政府的压力，加剧了地缘紧张局势，也提升了 铂金的避险吸引力 ...

【纠错】 【责任编辑:王萌萌】 新华社纽约12月26日电（记者徐静）受避险需求增加等因素拉动，国际黄金、白银价格26日再创新高。 其中，交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期货价格一度达到每盎司4581.30美元，3月白银期货价格突破每盎 司79美元，逼近80美元。 ...

摘要周五(12月26日)亚洲时段开盘，贵金属大涨，现货黄金涨逾25美元至4505美元/盎司附近，银价暴涨 刷新历史高位。地缘紧张与委内瑞拉油轮封锁推升避险需求，交易员押注2026年美进一步降息。2025年 金价累涨约70%，或创1979年来最佳年度表现。机构看好2026年金价续涨，驱动含央行购金、降息预 期、去美元化及地缘风险等。 周五(12月26日)亚洲时段开盘，贵金属大涨，现货黄金涨逾25美元至4505美元/盎司附近，银价暴涨刷新 历史高位。地缘紧张与委内瑞拉油轮封锁推升避险需求，交易员押注2026年美进一步降息。2025年金价 累涨约70%，或创1979年来最佳年度表现。机构看好2026年金价续涨，驱动含央行购金、降息预期、去 美元化及地缘风险等。 尽管美联储年内已降息三次，但名义中性利率由2.5%升至3.5%，引发"鹰派转向"担忧——市场恐宽松 周期过早结束，2026年甚至可能逆转路径。债市已现端倪：10年期美债收益率坚守4.2%高位，收益率 曲线"熊陡"显示市场预判未来物价压力复燃，这意味着房贷、信用卡利率的下行缓解或比预期更弱更 短，对黄金而言，高利率环境会削弱其零息资产的相对吸引力，短期构成压制 ...

一、自2025年12月30日(星期二)收盘清算时起，Au(t+d)、mAu(t+d)、Au(T+N1)、Au(T+N2)、 NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证金比例从16%调整为17%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从15%调 整为16%；Ag(t+d)合约的保证金比例从19%调整为20%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从18%调整为 19%；CAu99.99合约保证金每手85,000元调整至每手120,000元。 若12月30日出现单边市，按照《上海黄金交易所风险控制管理办法》相关规定调整的保证金和涨跌停板 水平高于上述标准时，则按较高的标准执行。 摘要周五(12月26日)金银双双攀升至纪录高位，现货黄金触及每盎司4530.60美元的纪录高点，现货白银 一度触及75.13美元的历史新高，上海黄金交易所发布元旦风险防控通知，根据交易所节假日休市安排 公告，交易所于2026年1月1日(星期四)休市，1月5日(星期一)起照常开市，2025年12月31日(星期三)晚上 不进行夜市交易。 周五(12月26日)金银双双攀升至纪录高位，现货黄金触及每盎司4530.60美元的纪录高点，现货白银一度 触及75.13美元的历史 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, with gold reaching approximately $4531 per ounce before retreating slightly [1][2][3] - Geopolitical factors, such as increased pressure on Venezuelan oil exports and military actions in Nigeria, are significant drivers of precious metal prices, as they heighten investor concerns about political and security risks [2] - The recent decline in U.S. dollar strength, influenced by market expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, has made precious metals more attractive as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases [2][3] Group 2 - The low liquidity environment following the Christmas holiday has amplified price volatility in the precious metals market, leading to increased sensitivity to changes in risk appetite [1][2] - Silver has not only reached historical highs but has also exhibited greater volatility than gold, supported by its industrial applications in electronics, clean energy, and photovoltaics [1] - Overall, the current dynamics in the precious metals market reflect a re-evaluation of risk assets, with ongoing adjustments expected based on shifts in risk sentiment and macroeconomic expectations [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 1016.30 CNY per gram on December 26, with a daily increase of 0.75% and a trading volume of 224,588 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1009.00 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 7.3 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 15.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 84.5% [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures suggests that the gold market is experiencing fluctuations around the 1000 CNY mark, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [2] - The report indicates that the main gold contract closed at 1008.76 USD per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.58%, and is fluctuating within the 1000-1010 USD range [2] - The medium to long-term outlook for gold prices is positive, with expectations for a strong upward trend, while short-term movements are expected to be strong and volatile [2]

据Mining.com网站报道，地缘政治动荡持续推动避险需求上升，国际金银价格迭创新高。 贵金属价格年底上涨主要是因为市场预计来年美联储可能有进一步的降息。地缘政治紧张，特别是在委 内瑞拉，美国扣押运油船，加大对委内瑞拉政府施压，增加了金银的避险吸引力。 "地缘政治摩擦再次成为人们关注的焦点"，激石集团（Pepperstone Group）策略师艾哈迈德·阿西里 （Ahmad Assiri）以油轮被扣押为例说。"这些事态发展虽然没有引发彻底的避险行为，但无疑增加了 对黄金作为避险工具的内在需求"。 随后金价在回落后重拾升势，主要银行分析师都预计这种趋势会延续到明年。比如，高盛预计基准情景 下金价达到4900美元/盎司，并有上涨的风险。 同期，银价涨幅已高达140%，最近上涨主要是因为投机性流入和供应混乱。 10月份以后，伦敦金库出现了大量流入，但世界上大部分可供白银仍在纽约。因为交易员正在等待美国 商务部对关键矿产是否威胁国家安全的调查结果，这可能决定美国是否对金属进口征收关税或实施贸易 限制。 阿西里认为，"银市场正在对各种宏观因素的变化做出反应，同时受到其自身供需形势的影响，这种反 应更加强烈。随着银价涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of gold price fluctuations and emphasizes understanding its four core attributes: commodity, monetary, financial, and hedging properties, to clarify the underlying logic of its price movements [3][4]. Group 1: Gold's Four Core Attributes - **Commodity Property**: Gold prices are primarily determined by supply and demand dynamics, with demand influenced by economic cycles and market expectations. The main contributors to gold demand are jewelry, investment, and central bank purchases, while industrial demand is relatively low [5]. - **Monetary Property**: Gold is considered "hard currency" due to its scarcity, durability, and universal acceptance, serving as an effective store of value. Its price is closely linked to the US dollar index, typically decreasing when the dollar strengthens and increasing when the dollar weakens [6][9]. - **Financial Property**: Gold's investment value is shaped by real interest rates, expected inflation rates, and market liquidity. Lower real interest rates increase gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset, especially during periods of low interest rates or rate cuts by central banks [14][15]. - **Hedging Property**: Gold performs well in risk scenarios where market pessimism rises, making it a preferred asset over riskier investments. Historical events show that gold prices tend to rise during crises, highlighting its unique characteristics as a safe-haven asset [17][18]. Group 2: Historical Review of Gold Price Movements - Historical analysis indicates that significant price movements in gold are closely related to Federal Reserve policies, inflation changes, and central bank behaviors. Major price increases are driven by structural trends like de-dollarization and central bank diversification, alongside cyclical factors such as inflation and risk aversion [21][22]. - Price declines are often triggered by tightening monetary policies, rapid inflation declines, or central bank sell-offs. For instance, the period from 1983 to 1985 saw a drop of over 40% due to US economic recovery and interest rate hikes [23][24]. - The article highlights that current global challenges, including debt expansion and economic slowdown, have accentuated gold's monetary and hedging properties, leading to recent price surges. Notably, Ray Dalio views gold as a hedge against unsustainable debt levels, suggesting a reasonable allocation of 10% to 15% in investment portfolios [25].

Core Viewpoint - The spotlight in the precious metals market has shifted from gold to silver as spot silver prices have surpassed $73 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, and industrial demand [1][3]. Group 1: Silver's Unique Characteristics - Silver exhibits a "dual volatility" characteristic due to its financial and industrial attributes, with current prices reflecting both geopolitical risk premiums and strong demand from the photovoltaic industry [3]. - The global demand for silver in photovoltaic applications has reached 15% of total silver demand, a figure expected to continue rising amid the renewable energy revolution [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, have amplified the safe-haven function of precious metals, leading to a significant increase in silver ETF holdings by institutional investors [4]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 2020 pandemic-induced surge in silver prices, highlighting the current market's concerns over monetary expansion and inflation [4]. Group 3: Gold-Silver Ratio Insights - The current gold-silver ratio stands at approximately 65:1, significantly below the historical average of 75:1, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5]. - A continuous decline in silver inventories, with registered silver stocks at their lowest since 2008, raises concerns about supply tightness, which could lead to significant price volatility [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The diversity of investment channels for silver, including physical silver, paper silver, silver futures, silver ETFs, and silver mining stocks, presents both opportunities and risks for individual investors [6]. - The high volatility of silver prices, typically 2-3 times that of gold, necessitates careful risk management, especially for leveraged instruments like futures [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the silver market will depend on the interplay of three key factors: the persistence of geopolitical risks, the sustained growth of the photovoltaic industry, and the timing of shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices showed a differentiation. Shanghai gold futures contracts fluctuated slightly at high levels, while Shanghai silver futures contracts rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, the risk of high - level volatility in silver increased, but in the quarterly level, the long logic of gold and silver remained smooth. Gold had a relatively high price safety margin as its historical volatility was at the end - of - year low [1]. - The core factors driving the upward movement of gold prices, such as geopolitical factors, the weakening of the US dollar, continuous central bank gold purchases, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts in the next year, remained unchanged. The expectation of loose liquidity was the core logic driving gold up in the quarterly level. The period from the nomination to the assumption of office of the new Fed chair was considered the most favorable time for trading liquidity expectations and Fed independence risks. Geopolitical tensions led to active safe - haven demand [6]. - In the short - term, silver prices might face increased volatility after a continuous sharp rise. In the long - term, the core drivers of silver price increases remained unchanged, and the upward elasticity of silver was expected to be further released in 2026. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still recur in the first quarter. The gold - silver ratio was expected to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, reaching 6.9985 at the highest, the first time since September 2024. The offshore RMB had appreciated by 4.6% against the US dollar this year, and the on - shore RMB was approaching the 7 mark, with an annual appreciation of 4% [2]. - On December 25, the Ukrainian Air Force launched a missile attack on a Russian refinery in Rostov Oblast, which was one of the largest oil product suppliers in southern Russia with a storage tank capacity of over 210,000 cubic meters [2]. - A US official said on December 24 that the White House had ordered the US military to focus on the "blockade" of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, preferring economic pressure over military action [2]. - On December 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the latest Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the core territorial issues remained unresolved [2]. - On December 25, Japanese Prime Minister Kaoi Sanae announced a 2026 fiscal year budget of 122.3 trillion yen (about 5.5 trillion RMB), a 6.3% increase from 2025, the highest in Japanese history. The government planned to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new bonds to support this large - scale expenditure [3]. - Guotou Silver LOF announced that the fund would be suspended from trading from the opening on December 26, 2025, to 10:30 and resume trading at 10:30. If the premium rate of the secondary market trading price did not decline effectively, the fund had the right to apply for temporary suspension or extended suspension to warn the market [3]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold: After hitting a record high, Shanghai gold futures adjusted slightly, possibly due to some traders taking profits before the New Year. The core factors driving gold prices up remained, and the expectation of loose liquidity was the main driver in the quarterly level. The period around the Fed chair nomination was favorable for related trading. Geopolitical tensions maintained active safe - haven demand [6]. - Silver: Shanghai silver futures rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, there was a risk of increased volatility, and investors needed to manage their positions. In the long - term, the core drivers of price increases remained unchanged, and in 2026, silver was expected to have greater upward elasticity and the gold - silver ratio might decline. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still occur in the first quarter [7]. 3.3 Outlook - In the short - term, the price range of London gold was expected to be between 4200 and 4550 US dollars per ounce, and that of London silver between 60 and 75 US dollars per ounce [8]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [49]. - The precious metals index was 3927.63 on December 25, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.77%, a 5 - day increase of 6.01%, a one - month increase of 16.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 77.53% [51].