纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价12日上涨7.1美元，收于每盎司3680.7美 元，涨幅为0.19%。 受避险需求拉动，黄金、白银价格当天走高，白银价格创下近14年新高。技术面利好也激发了买盘兴 趣。 市场对美国经济走势的担忧日益增长，推动黄金价格本周再度刷新历史新高。 市场分析人士认为，金价上涨表明世界对特朗普政府经济政策的不安情绪日益加剧。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨53.1美分，收于每盎司42.680美元，涨幅为1.26%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 ...

以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊黄金的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者： 晨星Morningstar 屈辰晨 来源：雪球 最近几年 ， 无论是从商场里的首饰店还是新闻里 ， 大家多少都能感受到黄金的热度 。 事实也确实如此 。 自2022年11月触及疫情后的低点以来 ， 国际金价就一路高歌猛进 。 就在9月3日 ， COMEX黄金期货在连涨七日后 ， 突 破3600美元/盎司的历史关口 。 这轮黄金 " 牛市 " 到底缘何而起 ， 还能走多远 ？ 现在还能不能上车 ？ 当下配置黄金又要注意些什么 ？ 01 黄金暴涨的两大原因 近几年黄金价格能一路飙升 ， 主要是受两大关键因素共同推动 。 一方面是各国央行的 " 去美元化 " 。 自第二次世界大战结束后 ， 美元一直在全球货币储备和贸易结算中占据重要位置 ， 各国央行高度依赖美元作为储备货币 ， 不少国家的货币汇 率也会直接与美元挂钩 。 然而现在情况变了 ， 在地缘政治风险上升 、 美国财政赤字高企等背景下 ， 全球央行 " ...

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.5 billion in August, marking the third consecutive month of inflows and a year-to-date total of approximately $47 billion, the second highest on record, only behind the peak in 2020 [1] - North America and Europe were the dominant regions for ETF inflows, with North America seeing inflows of about $4.1 billion in August, also marking the third consecutive month of net inflows, and a significant acceleration in inflow momentum [5][1] - European funds recorded inflows of approximately $1.9 billion in August, maintaining a four-month streak of inflows, with the UK market leading in fund inflows, while Switzerland and Germany also experienced notable growth [8][1] Group 2 - The total assets under management (AUM) increased significantly, reaching a new record high at the end of the month, with total holdings growing by 53 tons, the highest level since July 2022, but still 6% lower than the record of 3,929 tons set in November 2020 [3] - In contrast, Asia experienced outflows of approximately $1 million in August, with demand shifting from positive to negative, primarily due to rising risk appetite among investors, as evidenced by the over 10% increase in the CSI 300 index in August [9][10] - The Indian market, however, saw net inflows for the fourth consecutive month, benefiting from a resurgence in safe-haven demand, while other regions experienced mild outflows, with Australia showing slight inflows that did not offset outflows in the South African market [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - high - level shock; Coal and coke - shock; Rolled steel and screw steel - weak; Glass - shock; Soda ash - shock [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - shock; CSI 300 - upward; CSI 500 - upward; CSI 1000 - upward; 2 - year treasury bond - shock; 5 - year treasury bond - shock; 10 - year treasury bond - rebound; Gold - high - level shock; Silver - high - level shock [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs - range shock; Pulp - weak consolidation; Offset paper - bearish; Edible oils - wide - range shock; Oilseeds and meals - shock; Live pigs - shock and slightly stronger; Rubber - shock; PX - wait - and - see; PTA - shock; MEG - wait - and - see; PR - wait - and - see; PF - shock and consolidation [6][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple industries including black, financial, light industries, etc. It provides investment ratings and detailed analyses of the supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors for each product in these industries, guiding investors to make decisions based on the current market situation and future trends [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The Guinean government's requirements boost market sentiment. The daily average pig iron output has recovered to 240,000 tons. Global iron ore shipments have decreased significantly, mainly due to the sharp decline in Brazilian shipments. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term fundamentals have limited contradictions. Attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2] - **Coal and coke**: The purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills has been lowered. The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation of steel and coal mines and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, while demand has recovered slightly. The short - term sentiment in the black sector has cooled, and coal and coke show a low - level shock trend [2] - **Rolled steel and screw steel**: The fundamentals are weak. The steel industry's stable - growth policy does not restrict steel production, so supply remains high. The demand for building materials has declined, and the total demand is hard to reverse seasonally, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Profits have declined, and the 2601 contract of screw steel is running weakly below the 60 - day line [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may cause short - term fluctuations in the market. The cost of production lines will increase. The spot in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key for the 01 contract lies in the path of cold repair. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] - **Soda ash**: The short - term market has stood above the 60 - day line support, and future attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. There was capital inflow in communication equipment and electronic components sectors and outflow in catering, tourism, and pharmaceutical sectors. The element market reform pilot will be carried out, and US CPI data has been released, which affects market sentiment. It is recommended to control risk preference and hold long positions in stock indices [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Its currency, financial, and commodity attributes all support the price, and the market still has a certain demand for hedging. Although the logic of the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate policy and hedging sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a high - level shock [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased slightly, showing a peak - season but not prosperous situation. The arrival volume is expected to increase this week, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory has been decreasing, and the cost support has weakened. The delivery willingness of the 09 contract has increased. Logs are expected to show a range shock [6] - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has increased, but the profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure. The demand improvement is yet to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to show a weak consolidation [6] - **Offset Paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, but September is the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. It should be treated bearishly [6] - **Edible Oils**: The expected increase in the production of US soybeans and Malaysian palm oil has increased the supply pressure. The export tax of Indonesian palm oil has been adjusted, and the import of domestic rapeseed has shrunk. The demand for double - festival stocking is weak. Edible oils are expected to show a wide - range shock [6] - **Oilseeds and Meals**: The market expects a good harvest of US soybeans, and the export has not improved substantially. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal has been accumulating. Oilseeds and meals are expected to show a shock trend [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and the slaughter rate has also increased. With the recovery of the slaughter rhythm, the supply of large pigs has increased, and the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is expected to widen slightly [7] - **Rubber**: The supply in the rubber - producing areas is affected by weather conditions, and the raw material price is high. The demand of tire enterprises has declined slightly, and the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [10] - **PX**: There are concerns about weak US demand and global supply surplus. The supply and demand of PX have both increased, but the short - term supply - demand has weakened, and the price follows the oil price [10] - **PTA**: The cost support is average, the supply has increased, and the demand of downstream polyester factories has rebounded. The supply - demand has improved, and the price follows the cost in the short term [10] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the future arrival volume is not high. The supply pressure has increased, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supports the price [10] - **PR**: Affected by the decline in international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and the demand has also declined. PR is expected to run weakly with the raw materials [10] - **PF**: The cost support is weak, but the orders in the downstream yarn market have improved slightly, and the inventory of short - fiber factories is low. PF is expected to show a shock and consolidation trend [10]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has surged significantly since the beginning of the year, breaking through the $3600 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date increase of 40% [1][3][9]. Market Performance - On September 9, the spot gold price reached a record high of $3674.78 per ounce, leading to a strong rally in domestic gold-related stocks, which collectively surged over 5.15% [3][5]. - The COMEX gold futures price also reported a similar year-to-date increase of nearly 40%, closing at $3715.2 per ounce [3]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over the independence of the Fed impacting the US dollar, and heightened risk aversion due to fiscal and political pressures [5][6]. - The downward revision of US non-farm employment data has reinforced expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Fed, further supporting gold prices [6]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, which provides long-term support for gold prices. The share of dollar assets held by central banks has decreased from 72% in 2000 to an expected 57% by 2025 [8]. - As of August, China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 74.02 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for ten months [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue, with potential targets set at $3800 per ounce in the medium term [9][10]. - Various financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a baseline of $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, and Morgan Stanley setting a target of $3800 per ounce by Q4 2025 [10].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with recent fluctuations leading to a drop of over $40 from daily highs, indicating a "roller coaster" trend in the market [1]. Price Movements - As of September 10, the spot gold price fell to $3625.62 per ounce, while COMEX gold dropped to $3659.6 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.61% [1][3]. - On September 9, spot gold prices surged, reaching a historical high of over $3660 per ounce, with COMEX gold briefly exceeding $3700 per ounce [4]. Market Influences - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts, which have weakened the US dollar, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases [7]. - The US labor market's weakness, as indicated by disappointing non-farm payroll data and a slight increase in unemployment rates, has shifted market focus towards potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [8]. Investment Trends - Domestic gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with several products achieving historical highs in market performance. Notably, three gold ETFs reported over 70% net value growth in the past year [9]. - The total scale of gold ETFs in the market has approached 160 billion yuan, with the largest ETF reaching 59.606 billion yuan [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to rise in the short term, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy. Long-term projections indicate a potential increase in gold price levels due to ongoing central bank purchases [10]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could reach $4000 per ounce by 2026, with extreme scenarios suggesting prices could approach $5000 per ounce if a small percentage of private US debt holdings shift to gold [10].

封面新闻记者 白兰 刚刚过去的一周，黄金无疑是资本市场最亮眼的焦点，现货黄金屡创新高，带动A股黄金股大涨，消费端的黄金价格也水涨船高。9月6日盘中，现货黄金 更是一度大涨1.5%，史上首次站上3600美元/盎司整数大关。 截至收盘，现货黄金报3586.81美元，涨1.16%，本周累计涨幅创下6月中旬以来最大；COMEX黄金期货涨0.92%，报3639.8美元/盎司，同样再创新高。而 今年以来，现货黄金已累计上涨约976美元，涨幅高达37%。 在业内看来，利率预期和避险买盘共同作用，推动了本轮金价的持续上扬。美国劳工部数据显示，8月非农新增就业仅2.2万人，远低于市场预期的7万 人，失业率升至4.3%，为2021年以来最高。分析人士指出，劳动力市场作为经济的晴雨表，其疲软态势强化了市场对美联储降息的预期，进而支撑黄金 价格。 天风证券固收首席分析师谭逸鸣认为，本轮黄金冲上3600美元/盎司高位，其背后有四大推动因素：一是8月以来，美国货币政策独立性的担忧显著升温； 二是美联储降息预期升温，利率下行；三是地缘和经济前景的不确定性，推升市场避险需求；四是近两年黄金上涨的底层支撑，即美元美债的信心动摇， 全球央行持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. July PCE data met market expectations, showing moderate inflation without signs of runaway prices, which bolstered confidence in the Fed's potential rate cuts in September. This has led to a rise in gold and silver prices [3][12]. - The report emphasizes that geopolitical uncertainties and global tariff policies continue to support the long-term investment value of gold, despite short-term fluctuations [3][12]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that the combination of traditional consumption peaks and Fed rate cut expectations is likely to push copper prices higher, while aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to supply constraints and strong demand from the new energy sector [4][13][17]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, with specific stocks recommended for investment including Zhongjin, Zijin, and Chaijin in A-shares, and Lingbao and China Gold International in H-shares [3][12]. - Silver prices are also projected to increase, with recommended stocks including Shengda Resources and Hunan Silver [3][12]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and are expected to rise in the medium to long term due to increased investment and consumption following Fed rate cuts [4][13]. - Aluminum prices are anticipated to remain stable due to supply constraints and strong demand from the new energy sector, with recommended stocks including Yunnan Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [4][17]. Other Metals - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise due to strong demand from steel mills, while tungsten prices are also projected to increase due to tight supply and low social inventory [4][19][22]. - The report suggests monitoring stocks such as Jiajin International and Xiamen Tungsten for tungsten investments, and Jinmoly and Guocheng for molybdenum [4][19][22]. Market Review - The report notes a 2.12% increase in the non-ferrous index, with West Gold and Tiantong shares showing significant gains of 49.7% and 27.37% respectively [5][28]. - The report also highlights that the copper and aluminum sectors are currently undervalued, suggesting potential for future growth [30].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.48% to 45400.86 points, the Nasdaq down 0.03% to 21700.39 points, and the S&P 500 down 0.32% to 6481.50 points, despite a mixed performance throughout the week [1] - European stocks also closed lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.47%, the FTSE 100 down 0.05%, the CAC 40 down 0.31%, the DAX 30 down 0.73%, and the FTSE MIB down 0.91% [1] Employment Data - The U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below economists' expectations of 75,000, raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown [4] - The unemployment rate rose to its highest level since 2021, indicating a possible deterioration in the labor market [4] - Manufacturing employment decreased for the fourth consecutive month, with a reduction of 12,000 jobs, marking the longest decline since 2020 [5][6] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged, breaking the $3600 per ounce mark, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts following weak employment data [3] - The price of light crude oil fell by $1.61 to $61.87 per barrel, a decrease of 2.54%, while Brent crude oil dropped by $1.49 to $65.50 per barrel, down 2.22% [2] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.59% to 97.765, with the euro trading at 1.1719 dollars and the pound at 1.3509 dollars, both higher than the previous trading day [2] Corporate News - President Trump criticized the European Union for imposing a $3.5 billion fine on Google, threatening to initiate a 301 investigation if such actions continue [8] - Qualcomm's CEO stated that Intel's current manufacturing technology does not meet the standards required for mobile processor suppliers, indicating a potential shift in partnerships if Intel improves its technology [8]

Core Viewpoint - The latest U.S. non-farm payroll data is likely to influence the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in the upcoming meeting, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, which have surpassed $3,600 per ounce [1] Economic Data - In August, the U.S. added 22,000 jobs, falling short of economists' expectations of 75,000 [1] - Gold prices have increased over 37% this year, following a 27% rise in 2024, driven by a weaker dollar, central bank gold purchases, and a more accommodative monetary policy environment [1] Market Sentiment - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical risks have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Analysts suggest that the weak employment trend may lead to multiple interest rate cuts, bolstering a bullish outlook for gold in the short to medium term [1] Price Projections - Despite the current bullish sentiment, some analysts believe that gold prices may still be far from reaching $4,000 unless there is a significant market dislocation [1]