Core Viewpoint - The performance of upstream mining companies has improved significantly in the first half of 2025, with net profits showing notable growth, attributed mainly to the increase in gold sales prices compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - Gold prices have remained high, fluctuating between $3100 and $3450, benefiting upstream mining companies and leading to an increase in exploration budgets and M&A activities [1] - The positive sentiment towards gold investments has led to the introduction of customized products, such as a unique gold keycap keyboard by JD.com [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Shandong Gold (600547) expects a net profit of 25.5 billion to 30.5 billion yuan, an increase of 84.3% to 120.5% year-on-year, driven by optimized production and rising gold prices [2] - Zhongjin Gold (600489) anticipates a net profit of 26.14 billion to 28.75 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 50% to 65%, due to effective production organization and cost reduction [2] - Western Gold (601069) projects a net profit of 1.3 billion to 1.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 96.35% to 141.66%, attributed to higher gold sales prices and increased sales volume [2] - Chifeng Gold (600988) expects a net profit of 10.8 billion to 11.3 billion yuan, a rise of 52.01% to 59.04%, due to a 41.76% increase in gold sales prices [3] - Shanjin International (000975) forecasts a net profit of 15.4 billion to 16.4 billion yuan, up 43.24% to 52.55%, benefiting from gold price increases and operational efficiency [3] - Hunan Gold (002155) anticipates a net profit of approximately 6.13 billion to 7.01 billion yuan, with a growth of 40% to 60%, driven by rising sales prices of gold and antimony products [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 11, 2025 - Research Team: Macro and Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Fed's potential rate cut and Trump's new policies support the precious metals market, but there are also uncertainties such as Fed officials' stances and geopolitical situations. Gold's long - and mid - term bull markets are supported by various factors, but its volatility has increased. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a long - term view and medium - low positions, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's nomination of a new Fed governor raises the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September to 86.6%, which supports the precious metals' upward movement. However, some Fed officials believe that a September rate cut is not certain, and the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict under US pressure causes London gold to face resistance around $3400/ounce. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view and use medium - low positions for trading [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change % | Open Interest | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 786.70 | 790.19 | 785.20 | 789.42 | 0.35% | 441,940 | 3990 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9,275 | 9,334 | 9,258 | 9,295 | 0.22% | 784,183 | - 10841 | | Gold T + D | 782.02 | 784.45 | 778.80 | 783.50 | 0.19% | 213,736 | 4684 | | Silver T + D | 9,224 | 9,287 | 9,210 | 9,249 | 0.27% | 3,528,966 | 24404 | [5] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have reduced gold's hedging and allocation demand, Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks, along with the deterioration of the US job market, have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and in July, the silver price fluctuated greatly. The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the mid - term bull market is supported by Trump's policies and the expectation of a Fed rate cut. However, the high price and P/E ratio of gold have increased its volatility. It is expected that London gold will continue to move within the range in the short term. Long - term investors are advised to participate with medium - low positions, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 2. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and the US have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit in the coming days, and Zelensky has held talks with European leaders on the peace process [17]. - Trump has nominated Milan as a temporary Fed governor and is still looking for candidates for a long - term Fed seat. Fed Governor Waller is the favorite to become the next Fed chairman [17]. - The US and China may extend the tariff truce by 90 days. Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods and is considering tariffs on China [17]. - The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but four of the nine policymakers oppose it, indicating that the continuous rate cuts may be near the end [17]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes that it is too early to promise a rate cut as key data has not been released and inflation is expected to rise in the next few months [18].

Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing a stark contrast between high investment demand and low consumer interest, with domestic gold prices remaining high while retail sales decline significantly [1][19][21] - China Gold Group, once a market leader, is facing severe challenges including plummeting revenues and profits, alongside negative publicity from various scandals [1][4][6][23] - The traditional business model of China Gold is failing to adapt to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger generations who prioritize design and cultural value over weight and price [4][13][22] Group 1: Market Performance - International spot gold prices recently peaked at $3399.27 per ounce before retreating, while domestic gold prices remain at 781 yuan per gram [1] - Despite high gold prices, 13 out of 15 listed jewelry companies in China reported declining net profits, with many established brands seeing revenue drops exceeding 15% [1][19] - China Gold's first-quarter 2025 financial report indicated a nearly 40% year-on-year decline in revenue and over 60% drop in net profit [1][6] Group 2: Company Challenges - China Gold has faced multiple crises, including franchisee bankruptcies, executive scandals, and safety incidents, leading to a tarnished brand image [3][4][7][10] - The company's revenue model, which relied heavily on low-cost gold and high-weight products, has become ineffective as consumer preferences shift towards design and brand prestige [4][13] - The franchise model has resulted in a lack of oversight and quality control, with numerous complaints about product quality and service issues [12][22] Group 3: Industry Trends - The gold jewelry market is experiencing a shift, with a 5.96% decline in consumption and a 26.85% drop in gold jewelry sales year-on-year [21] - Younger consumers are increasingly drawn to alternative products and experiences, leading to a decline in interest in traditional gold jewelry [21][22] - Competitors like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are innovating with culturally rich products, while China Gold struggles to introduce significant new offerings [13][15][22] Group 4: Future Outlook - The gold industry is at a crossroads, where companies must either innovate or face obsolescence, with a focus on brand value and consumer engagement becoming critical [23] - China Gold is attempting to pivot by increasing self-operated stores and launching culturally themed products, but the success of these initiatives remains uncertain [14][15][16] - The ongoing rise in gold prices presents both challenges and opportunities for traditional gold companies, necessitating a reevaluation of their business strategies [18][23]

消息面上，8月7日，中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至7月末，我国黄金储备规模7396万盎司，较6月 末增加6万盎司，为连续第9个月增持黄金。此外，周四晚间公布数据显示8月初美国初次申请失业金人 数超出市场预期，短线避险需求升温推动金价走高。值得关注的是，有消息称，美联储理事沃勒被特朗 普团队视作美联储主席的优先人选之一，而沃勒的降息意愿可能是其在特朗普眼中的加分项。 中信期货认为，随着非农数据的暴雷和美股的反转，美国经济短期韧性的交易短期或告一段落，市场重 回美国基本面走弱+降息周期重启的逻辑定价，黄金市场情绪将转向积极。此外，该行提示，美联储换 届节奏的加快，可能带来明年利率路径预期的改变和美联储独立性的忧虑，有望带来价格弹性的放大。 黄金中长期牛市趋势不变，关税路径下的美国基本面延续放缓及降息周期的重启带来中期驱动，美元信 用收缩构筑长期牛市基石。 黄金股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，集海资源(02489)涨4.96%，报1.48港元；潼关黄金(00340)涨4.1%，报 2.03港元；山东黄金（600547）(01787)涨2.9%，报29.78港元；招金矿业(01818)涨2.83%，报22.56港 元；紫 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a shift in the global monetary system, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][10][11]. Group 1: Historical Context and Performance - From 1971 to 1980, the price of gold surged from $35 to $850 per ounce, equivalent to $3,493 today, maintaining its purchasing power over time [1]. - The annualized return on gold from 1971 to 2023 is approximately 8%, with the past 20 years at 10.2% and the past 10 years at 13.6%, while 2024 has seen a remarkable increase of 28.2% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates has changed since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, with gold prices rising despite increasing real interest rates [2]. - The decline in trust towards the US dollar and the traditional bond market is prompting investors to seek alternative safe-haven assets, including gold [3][10]. Group 3: Institutional and Retail Investment Trends - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the US's AAA sovereign credit rating, which is influencing investor behavior towards gold as a safer investment [3]. - The "gold+" investment strategy is gaining traction, with many multi-asset portfolios allocating 5% to 10% of their assets to gold, and some reaching as high as 30% [6][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of the global capital system are expected to sustain the demand for gold, as it is viewed as a hedge against uncertainty [10][11]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with China's gold reserves reported at 73.96 million ounces, marking a continuous increase [10].

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌上海报道 过去很多年，实际利率一直是驱动金价的关键因素，金价与美元实际利率呈负相关：实际利率上升时， 黄金的吸引力会下降。 但自2022年俄乌冲突升级以来，这种负相关性已被其他因素所抵消。尽管近年来实际利率显著攀升，金 价却仍大幅上涨，这轮涨势主要源于投资者对冲多元化风险的需求以及各国央行的购金行为。 需要注意的是，只有美元是被各国信赖的货币，才能由美元实际利率来定价黄金。而这一前提在俄乌冲 突、贸易战等冲击下越来越难成立。迈向多极化世界，美元信任基础发生变化，全球货币体系迎来长期 重构进程，个人和官方对黄金的青睐成为黄金价格上涨的推手。 美债通常被认为是一种避险资产，但其地位也正在受到削弱，海外"债主"对美国资产的信心下降带来深 远影响。俄乌冲突发生后，俄罗斯海外资产被扣押，众多国家对持有美国国债变得更加谨慎。随着美国 所谓的"对等关税"向全球开火，美债的传统避险地位被进一步冲击。 1971年到1980年，1盎司黄金的价格从35美元狂飙至850美元，后者相当于今天的3493美元。若加入对通 胀的考虑，1980年至今黄金购买力维持不变。今年金价一度突破3500美元/盎司，再度跨过前锋， ...

2025年进入下半年黄金市场屡次成为全球金融市场焦点,年初以来国际金价累计上涨约27%-28%,一度突 破每盎司3,400美元的历史高点,无论是央行、投资机构、还是普通投资者,均在关注这场黄金牛市能否持 续,然而在涨幅背后,全球黄金需求结构正在悄然生变:一边是资金疯狂涌入ETF和投资渠道,另一边则是传 统实物消费明显降温,这一现象,折射出全球经济与金融环境的深刻变化,也为后续金价走势增添了更多不 确定性。 价格走势分歧:机构预测南辕北辙 金价未来何去何从?机构观点高度分化,花旗集团近期将未来3个月金价预期上调至每盎司3,500美元,认为 美联储降息与美元疲软将继续推高金价;而另一份报告则指出,随着需求增长放缓,2026年金价可能回落至 3,000美元下方。造成预测分歧的关键,在于不同机构对全球经济与政策环境的判断差异,一旦全球经济陷 入深度衰退或通胀反弹,黄金可能继续走高;反之,若美国经济软着陆、实际利率维持高位,则金价或面临 调整压力。 宏观因素叠加:财政与地缘风险仍是主线 投资需求领跑:ETF流入创纪录 根据世界黄金协会(WGC)发布的最新数据,2025年上半年全球黄金ETF(交易型开放式基金)持仓大幅增 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market risk - preference recovery suppresses gold prices, but gold's long - term bullish trend remains unchanged, with tariff - induced slowdown in the US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle providing medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit building the long - term bullish foundation [1][6] - The trading of short - term resilience of the US economy may end, and the market will return to the logic of weakening US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, with positive sentiment in the gold market [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US President Trump said the US will impose about 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips [2] - Trump may meet with Russian President Putin next week, and the US plans to implement secondary sanctions on Friday to pressure Russia to end the Ukraine war [2] - Some Fed policymakers are increasingly worried about the cooling of the US job market and economic slowdown, though they are still uncertain about inflation [2] 3.2 Price Logic - Asian stocks rose on Wednesday. Despite weak US economic data, the recovery of market risk - preference suppressed the safe - haven demand for gold. However, trade uncertainties and interest - rate cut expectations provide support [3] - Investors still bet that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, with an expected cumulative cut of over 50 basis points this year [3] - Trump's tariff announcements on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have intensified global trade tensions, which may limit the decline of gold prices [3] - The negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been exhausted, and the emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, becoming a slow - variable [3] 3.3 Outlook - The weekly focus for London gold spot is [3300, 3500], and for London silver spot is [36, 40] [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold has been in a long-term bull market, and this trend is not expected to change [1][2]. - Historical analysis shows that gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, such as rising from over $600 to nearly $1,900 during the 2008 financial crisis, followed by a drop to around $1,050 [3]. - Currently, gold has been in a high-level consolidation phase for four months after reaching the $3,500 mark, raising questions about its potential to break through this level [5][8]. Group 2 - The analysis indicates that if gold does not break through its current high this month, there is a possibility of a significant pullback in the ongoing bull market [8]. - The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts could influence gold prices, as historically, gold has not necessarily declined during periods of rising interest rates [10]. - There are concerns that a potential stock market crash could impact gold prices, with recent movements suggesting a possible downward trend in the near future [11].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, with recent price movements indicating strong investor interest and demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - On August 1, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $3,399.80 per ounce, marking a 1.53% increase and reaching a one-week high [3]. - The London spot gold price surged to $3,362.09 on August 2, with a daily increase of 2.25%, the largest single-day gain in six months [3]. - As of August 5, spot gold reached $3,380 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.19% [6]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for gold is supported by three main pillars: central banks, ETFs, and retail investors, creating a balanced demand structure [5]. - In Q2, global gold ETFs saw an inflow of 170.5 tons, compared to an outflow of 7.1 tons in the same period last year, contributing to a total demand of 397.1 tons in the first half of the year, the highest since 2020 [5]. - Young consumers, particularly those from the '90s and '00s generations, are increasingly driving gold jewelry purchases, favoring lighter, more design-oriented products [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally have continued to increase their gold reserves, with a net addition of over 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year, and China's central bank quietly added 44 tons to reach 2,279.6 tons, ranking sixth globally [4][8]. - In Q2 2025, central banks collectively added 166 tons of gold, maintaining a high level of gold purchases despite a slowdown in the pace [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices remains uncertain, influenced by multiple factors including potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and global economic conditions [7]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank policies favoring gold accumulation [7][9]. - Historical data indicates that in scenarios of dollar depreciation, high inflation, and geopolitical conflicts, gold can yield annual returns of 15%-20% [9].