But I keep hearing the sword recently, and that's for stagflation. And that's what we're digging into on today's stocks in translation. First, let's get our terms straight.Staglation here means three warning lights flashing at once. Weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Stagnation plus inflation.And some folks draw a line between capital S, the 1970s kind of stagflation, and the lowercase S when only parts show up. And since the pandemic, we've really only seen the lowercase kind. ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" remains unchanged, with signals of policy adjustments being released, emphasizing quality and stability in quantity, while economic downward pressure has increased in the short term. The "anti-involution" trend may become a major factor influencing economic performance in the second half of the year, with short-term economic pressures existing but long-term benefits for high-quality development [2][6][49]. Supply Side - In August 2025, China's industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slowing down by 0.5 percentage points from July, with a cumulative growth of 6.2%, reflecting the impact of summer heat on supply chain disruptions and continued low real estate investment [3][9]. - The manufacturing and high-tech industries showed more stability, indicating resilience in China's industrial transition towards high quality, although global demand uncertainty and extreme weather pose greater constraints on future growth [3][9]. Demand Side - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a phase adjustment in consumption growth due to policy changes [4][13]. - Fixed asset investment from January to August 2025 grew by 0.5% year-on-year, down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a phase adjustment in investment growth due to policy changes [4][15]. - Exports totaled $321.81 billion in August 2025, up 4.4% year-on-year, but down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with structural changes in exports continuing [4][16]. Price Dynamics - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%, with the decline in PPI narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in industrial product prices [7][23][28]. Monetary and Financial Aspects - In August 2025, the new social financing scale was 25,693 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.3% year-on-year, reflecting seasonal adjustments in credit and off-balance-sheet financing [8][31]. - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 6% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in corporate demand for current deposits and improved economic activity [8][44]. - The broad money supply (M2) remained stable at an 8.8% year-on-year growth rate, reflecting steady monetary supply expansion [8][46]. Future Outlook - The industrial output growth rate for 2025 is expected to stabilize around 6%, slightly down from 6.4% in the first half of the year, with policy support preventing significant declines [49].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry in China, particularly the performance and regulatory environment affecting major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs Group [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Profitability in 2025**: The overall profitability of the pig farming industry in the first half of 2025 is reported to be strong, with Muyuan Foods achieving a net profit of 10 billion yuan, significantly outperforming its peers. In contrast, companies like Tangrenshen and Jinxinnong reported losses [1][3]. - **Impact of Pig Prices on CPI**: Pig prices have a significant impact on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Although the weight of pig prices in CPI has decreased from 2.3% in 2021 to 1.3% in 2022, it remains the highest among single commodities. In August 2025, pig prices fell by 16.1%, affecting the national CPI by approximately 0.24 percentage points [1][4]. - **Regulatory Measures**: Since May 2025, the government has implemented strict measures to control pig production capacity, including reducing the number of breeding sows by 1 million across the top 25 pig farming companies and provinces. The overall output is expected to decrease by 10% year-on-year [1][5]. - **Price Projections**: If the regulatory measures are effectively implemented, a 1% reduction in supply could lead to a 5%-7% increase in pig prices. By 2026, the national output is projected to decrease by about 5%, potentially resulting in a price increase of 25%-35%. The average price for 2026 is expected to be between 16-17 yuan per kilogram, with an average profit of 300-500 yuan per pig [1][5]. Additional Important Content - **Market Reactions**: Pig farming enterprises are responding positively to the regulatory policies. Large companies plan to significantly reduce the number of purchased piglets, while some free-range companies intend to cut their growth plans for the next year by as much as half [1][6]. - **Current Market Conditions**: The piglet market has seen significant price drops, with some regions reporting prices below cost. For instance, in Henan, Anhui, and Shandong, weaned piglets weighing 6-7 kg are selling for around 200 yuan, while the cost is approximately 300-350 yuan, indicating that breeding companies are facing losses [2][6]. - **Cautious Outlook**: If the average price of piglets remains low at around 300 yuan, breeding companies will be near the breakeven point, leading to a cautious outlook on future pig prices [2][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and rising risk appetite. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.23, down 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1146, up 0.001 (+0.01%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, with no change (-0.27%); DR007 was 1.48, down 0.01 (-0.90%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, up 0.01 (+0.63%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.63%) [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures related to the closing price trends, price change rates, capital precipitation trends, position ratios, net position ratios of the top 20, long - short position ratios of the top 20, the spread between government - owned enterprise bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures contracts [13][16][18][22]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows figures on the Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [28][36]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures contracts and the term spreads of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][37][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][49][52]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][74]. 4. Market Analysis 4.1 Macroeconomic Aspects - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The previous bonds issued before this date will remain VAT - exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and increase effective investment [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. 4.2 Capital Aspects - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed, indicating increased capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - to - long - term corporate financing demand. Deposits increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion power and the economy being in a weak recovery stage [2]. - Central Bank: On September 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.462%, 1.567%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4.3 Market Aspects - Closing Prices: On September 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.63 yuan, 107.72 yuan, and 114.32 yuan respectively, with price change rates of - 0.05%, - 0.13%, - 0.21%, and - 0.67% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.007 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, 0.018 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively [2]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

每经AI快讯，9月23日，新加坡8月份CPI同比增长0.5%，预估0.6%。 ...

The CPI fails to capture the cost of living crisis for many Americans, argues a former US comptroller of the currency https://t.co/wNp0A7iF0Z ...

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating a recovery in economic growth[10] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.71, significantly above historical averages, suggesting a notable rebound in domestic economic momentum[10] - Key sectors such as consumption, investment, and real estate showed improvement this week, with all three areas performing well[10] Price Trends - Food prices decreased this week, while non-food prices remained stable; September CPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.3%[12] - The forecast for September PPI indicates a month-on-month decline of about -0.1%, with a year-on-year increase expected to reach -2.4% due to a low base effect[12] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is considered high; predictions suggest a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of September 26, 2025[10] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of September 26 is 2.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,193.04[19]

Economic Overview - The economy is in a critical phase of bottoming out and recovery, with some indicators showing marginal improvement, but still facing multiple challenges [1] - Consumer internal momentum is weak, with household credit affected and housing prices expected to face significant downward pressure in Q4 [1] - Key factors for financial data improvement include corporate profitability and fiscal stimulus [1] CPI Analysis - August CPI year-on-year growth decreased to -0.4%, down from 0%, with a month-on-month change remaining flat [4] - Pork prices fell by 0.5% month-on-month, while egg prices increased by 1.5%, below the seasonal average [4] - Future CPI trends will depend on pork price stability, overall food price stability, supply-demand challenges, and weak consumer internal momentum [4] PPI Insights - August PPI year-on-year growth improved to -2.9% from -3.6%, marking the highest level since May [7] - The month-on-month PPI remained flat, ending an eight-month decline, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in some sectors [7][8] - Expectations for PPI in October suggest a narrowing decline to -2.6%, with potential recovery in Q4 [8] PMI Developments - August manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating slight recovery in both supply and demand sides [11] - New orders and export orders showed minor increases, but overall demand recovery remains weak [11] - Production activities are expanding, with positive business expectations continuing [11] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% [15] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with signs of improvement in new home sales [15] - Manufacturing investment is constrained by tariff disruptions and internal competition policies [15] Credit and Financial Data - New credit in August was 590 billion yuan, a significant increase from a negative value in the previous month [18] - Corporate loans showed divergence, with short-term loans increasing significantly [18] - Overall financial data reflects a pattern of government debt supply reduction and insufficient credit demand [18] M2 Growth - M2 growth remained steady at 8.8% year-on-year, with a slight decrease in the M2-M1 spread [21] - Government debt financing has been a key factor in maintaining M2 and social financing growth [21] - Future M2 growth may face challenges due to reduced government debt financing and insufficient loan demand [21]

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

加拿大8月CPI环比下降0.1%，前值0.3%。 ...