专题：美国11月核心CPI意外放缓至2021年来最低水平 通胀降温的真实幅度到底有多大？ 美国劳工部周四发布的 11 月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据显示，当月通胀率意外同比回落至 2.7%。但 受政府停摆影响，10 月的物价数据未能完成收集，因此劳工部的这份报告中缺少了环比数据，这让数 十类商品近期的价格波动情况成了未解之谜。 报告发布后，经济学家们对其解读持谨慎态度。 海军联邦信贷联盟首席经济学家希瑟・朗在一封电子邮件中表示，周四发布的这份报告 "对于数据控而 言，就好比《皇帝的新衣》这个故事照进了现实"。 "这份数据实在难以采信。10 月完全没有开展数据收集工作，11 月的收集工作也存在局限。" 朗指 出，"通胀意外降温的一个关键原因是住房租金成本大幅回落，但这与私营机构的数据并不相符，在合 理性上根本站不住脚。" 事实上，住房成本正是报告发布后引发争议的首个类目。住房类支出在消费者价格指数中的占比约为三 分之一，劳工部称，9 月至 11 月期间住房成本上涨了 0.2%，而整体物价指数同比上涨 3%。 哈佛大学经济学家杰森・福尔曼在社交平台 X 上发文称："美国劳工统计局（BLS）在住房成本的计算 方式上 ...

英国央行认为，与上次会议相比，通胀持续的风险有所减弱，而需求疲软带来的中期风险依然存在。货币政策旨在确保中期CPI通胀在2%内可持续稳 定，因此需要在实现通胀目标时平衡风险。 对于未来，货币政策进一步宽松的程度将取决于通胀前景的演变。自2024年8月以来，银行利率下调了150个基点，政策的限制性有所下降。根据现有 证据，银行利率很可能继续以渐进的下降轨迹走下去。 12月18日，英国央行宣布下调基准利率（"银行利率"）25个基点。 这是英国央行年内第四次降息，也是自2024年8月降息周期开启以来第六次降息。基准利率从去年最高5.25%降至当前的3.75%。对于明年，多位经济 学家预测，英国央行仍有较大降息空间。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）同样强调，当前通胀水平已经从三年前超过10%下降到3.2%。他表示，银行利率未来可能会进一步下 降，但这取决于工资增长和服务业价格等变量是否持续缓解。他强调，货币政策目标是为了确保通胀率回落到2%的目标。 英国央行基准利率走势（2003年至今） 为什么降息？ 根据英国央行发布的声明，该国通胀指标——消费物价指数（CPI）自上次会议以来已下降至3.2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in Japan's monetary policy under the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as it moves towards interest rate hikes in response to the depreciation of the yen and rising inflation, contrasting with the previous era of aggressive monetary easing known as "Abenomics" initiated in 2012 [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - "Abenomics" began in 2012 when Japan faced record yen appreciation and persistent deflation, with the yen valued at approximately 80 yen per dollar [4]. - Currently, the yen's value has dropped to nearly half of its 2012 level, leading to increased inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising around 3%, which is 1.5 times the BOJ's target of 2% [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Shift - The BOJ's decision to raise interest rates is seen as a necessary response to the current economic conditions, where yen depreciation and inflation require different measures compared to the past [4]. - The article emphasizes that continuing with the previous monetary easing policies would exacerbate yen depreciation and inflation, potentially leading to economic downturns [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Independence - The independence of central banks is highlighted as crucial for maintaining price stability, which sometimes conflicts with political interests [5]. - The BOJ has maintained its stance despite changing economic conditions, indicating a need for the Japanese government to implement effective policies alongside the BOJ's actions [5].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 美国 11 月 CPI 点评 通胀回落，指引失真 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 12 月 18 日，美国劳工统计局公布 11 月 CPI 通胀数据：同比来看，整体 CPI 录得 2.7%，较 9 月 下行 0.3 个百分点，核心 CPI 录得 2.6%，较 9 月回落 0.4 个百分点。环比数据因联邦政府停摆导致价格采 集受限，相关读数未能正常披露。 评论： 图1：11 月 CPI 通胀数据总览 | 行业类别 | | 11月CPI分项 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has experienced significant volatility, breaking through resistance levels and then quickly retracing, indicating a need for short-term adjustments while maintaining an overall bullish trend. Market Performance - Gold surged by $70 after breaking through the 4350 resistance area but quickly fell back, testing the 4300 support level [1][4][9] - The market is currently observing a range between 4300 and 4307, with potential for further upward movement towards 4353 and 4380 [5][6][7][8] Economic Factors - The recent decisions by the European and UK central banks, including a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, have signaled a tightening monetary policy, contributing to gold's recent pullback [11] - Unexpectedly low inflation data from the US, particularly a drop in the November CPI, has opened up policy space for the Federal Reserve, leading to a depreciation of the dollar and supporting gold prices [11] Investment Strategy - The current market conditions suggest a focus on buying opportunities around the 4300-4307 range and potential short positions at 4353 and 4380 [9] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of entry and exit points for gold investments, with a recommendation to follow experienced traders for better accuracy and risk management [12] Broader Market Trends - Industrial metals, including silver, copper, and aluminum, are gaining popularity, indicating a potential shift in capital allocation [13] - The depreciation of the dollar and the decline of Bitcoin suggest a strengthening position for gold amidst tightening monetary conditions [15]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on December 18 is unlikely to materially change the Federal Reserve's near-term policy outlook [1] - The firm emphasizes that the December inflation data, to be released before the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, will hold greater significance for policymakers assessing ongoing price pressures [1] - Recent core CPI performance below expectations is attributed to technical and timing-related factors rather than a comprehensive easing of underlying inflation [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns against overinterpreting the recent weakness in CPI, noting that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has not clarified how it will address identified data distortions, which increases the likelihood of a reversal in some of the recent drag factors in the coming months [2] - The firm expects the weakness in housing components to partially rebound in future data releases, while commodity inflation may see a slight acceleration in December [2] - Goldman Sachs believes the Federal Reserve will remain patient, relying on a broader array of data rather than a single CPI reading when making policy decisions into early 2026 [2]

市场焦点还包括即将公布的美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数及加拿大零售销售数据，可能为银价提供新的方向指引。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银再次在向上倾斜的100小时简单移动平均线(SMA)附近找到相当的支撑，保持买方的控制。它在64.75美元提供 动态支撑，保持在这一上升均线之上将保留看涨基调。移动平均线趋同/背离(MACD)直方图已转为正值并在扩展，表 明MACD线已在零水平附近穿越信号线。动能改善，持续推入正区域将增强上行偏向。 相对强弱指数(RSI)位于56，处于中性至看涨状态，低于超买水平，支持进一步上涨的空间，如果买方保持控制。然 而，日线RSI显示出超伸展状态，这使得在进行任何进一步升值操作之前，等待一些短期盘整或适度回调是明智的。这 反过来表明，白银可能在66.50-66.55美元区域面临一些中间障碍。 今日周五(12月19日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于65.92一线下方，今日开盘于65.44美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报65.66美元/盎司，上涨0.33%，最高触及66.01美元/盎司，最低下探64.46美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 周四公布的最 ...

| 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 12 月 18 日，美国劳工统计局公布 11 月 CPI 通胀数据：同比来看，整体 CPI 录得 2.7%，较 9 月 下行 0.3 个百分点，核心 CPI 录得 2.6%，较 9 月回落 0.4 个百分点。环比数据因联邦政府停摆导致价格采 集受限，相关读数未能正常披露。 评论： 图1：11 月 CPI 通胀数据总览 | 行业类别 | | 11月CPI分项同比 | | | | 11月CPI分项环比 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

周五，尽管日本全国CPI上升且市场对日本央行加息的预期升温，但日元仍小幅走低。 近期日本国债收益率大幅上升——日本公共债务占GDP的比重约为250%，居世界首位——加剧了人们对日本财政状况恶化的担忧，尤其是在首相高市早苗 推出大规模支出计划之后。这可能会限制日元的任何反弹。 美国方面，劳工统计局周四公布的数据显示，11月份消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于预期的3.1%。此外，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核 心CPI也低于预期，上月上涨2.6%。 CA Markets分析这些数据表明，通胀压力可能正在降温，足以让美联储进一步放松货币政策。事实上，交易员预计美联储将在2026年降息63个基点。美国总 统特朗普表示，下一任美联储主席将是一位支持大幅降息的人。 这与日本央行鹰派的预期形成鲜明对比，应该会支撑低收益的日元。然而，最初的市场反应是短暂的，这使得美元维持在周四触及的周高点附近，并支撑了 美元/日元汇率。 在风险情绪回暖之际，日元多头正在等待更多关于日本央行未来政策走向的线索。 美元无视美国CPI数据走软的影响，但美联储鸽派预期可能会限制其上行空间。 周五亚洲时段，日元遭遇新的抛售压力，并跌至 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets rose, following the overnight gains in US stocks, with the Nikkei 225 index up over 1% and the MSCI Asia-Pacific index increasing by 0.6% [1] - US inflation data cooling has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to a 0.8% rise in the S&P 500 index and a 1.5% increase in the Nasdaq 100 index [1][2] - Major contributors to the Asia-Pacific market included technology giants like SoftBank Group and Tencent Holdings [2] Group 2: US Inflation Data - The US consumer price index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the 3.1% predicted by economists, marking the lowest growth rate since early 2021 [2] - This data has boosted investor confidence and supported US Treasury bonds amid rising expectations for a Fed rate cut [2] - Concerns were raised regarding the reliability of the inflation data due to a temporary government shutdown affecting data collection [2] Group 3: Japanese Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, while signaling potential further tightening if economic conditions allow [1][3][4] - Following the announcement, the Japanese yen weakened against the dollar, and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2%, the highest since 2006 [1][7] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market faced pressure, with gold prices dropping by 0.1% to below $4,330 due to the stronger dollar and lower inflation expectations reducing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [1][10] - Silver prices increased by 0.4%, nearing $66, while platinum rose by 0.5% to around $1,925, and palladium fell by 1.1% [10][14] - Oil prices continued to decline amid global oversupply expectations, with Brent crude and WTI both down by 0.3% [1][10]