来源：人大CMF 王晋斌 中国人民大学经济学院原常务副书记、国家发展与战略研究院研究员、中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）主要成员 本文字数：1851字 阅读时间：5分钟 在当前各种冲突叠加，外部环境复杂多变的背景下，对美元金融汇率稳定的好处是：有助于稳定跨境资本流动，并进一步稳定人民币汇率预期。对一篮子 货币贸易汇率较大幅度贬值的好处是：有利于出口。 美元指数大幅度下行，在相当程度上已经脱离了传统的利率平价关系。换言之，在利率平价关系等式一侧添加了风险溢价因子，风险溢价主要是对美国激 进关税政策等的补偿。与年初相比，十年期美国国债收益率从年初的4.57%下行至4月22日的4.41%，仅下行16个BP，而欧元区、日本以及英国十年期国债 上行基本在20个BP以下，美元指数竟然下行了近9%，美元出现了美国激进政策叙事导致的阶段性贬值"超调"迹象。 与去年底和今年初相比，十年期中国国债收益率在4月22日基本还处在1.65%左右。中美十年期国债收益率之差变化不大，如果纯粹从利差来看，人民币 汇率不发生较大变化也属于正常。从今年以来人民币汇率中间价和收盘价之差来看，人民币略有贬值压力，主要还是受到了关税摩擦等因素带来的预期影 ...

金十数据4月24日讯，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.94%，在汇市尾市收于99.844。截 至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1322美元，低于前一交易日的1.1426美元；1英镑兑换1.3265美元，低于 前一交易日的1.3336美元。1美元兑换143.45日元，高于前一交易日的141.50日元；1美元兑换0.8297瑞士 法郎，高于前一交易日的0.8189瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3887加元，高于前一交易日的1.3815加元；1美 元兑换9.7032瑞典克朗，高于前一交易日的9.5556瑞典克朗。 美元指数23日上涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that fuel oil futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract reaching 3035.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.57% increase [1] Group 2 - As of April 22, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures at 11,250 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; fuel oil futures warehouse receipts stood at 46,170 tons, also unchanged [2] - The Chinese government has allowed the blending of high and low sulfur fuel oil using bonded logistics methods [2] - With a decrease in drone attacks, Russia's crude oil processing has increased, leading to a rise in fuel oil exports to Asia in April, while India has issued tenders for fuel oil sales, indicating a sufficient supply side [2] Group 3 - According to Ruida Futures, the market sentiment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance, with concerns over new tariff policies easing and the dollar index recovering; however, international oil prices have rebounded due to increased sanctions on Iran [3] - The downstream sector is experiencing a risk-averse mentality, putting pressure on refinery shipments, resulting in a bearish trading atmosphere in the fuel oil market [3] - Technical analysis suggests that the main contract for FU should focus on resistance around 3050 and support near 2900, indicating a short-term oscillating strong trend; for LU, resistance is around 3550 and support near 3380, also showing a short-term strong oscillating trend [3] Group 4 - South China Futures notes that in April, reduced exports from Russia and Iran have kept supply tight; however, there is a slight recovery in import demand from China and India, while the U.S. has seen a decline [3] - The overall import demand is weakening on a month-on-month basis, and due to tax deduction issues for high-sulfur fuel oil imports in China, a reduction in imports is expected to be a major trend [3] - High inventory levels in Singapore and Malaysia are easing the tight supply situation in the Singapore market, although short-term delivery products remain limited, keeping the short-term crack spread firm [3]

美元指数DXY盘初大幅走高，现报99.43，日内涨0.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing significant depreciation, reaching its lowest level since early April 2022, primarily due to the impact of the US government's tariff policies and the resulting economic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Impact - The US dollar index has dropped over 5.5% in April and nearly 10% year-to-date, indicating a strong downward trend [2]. - Tariff policies are projected to impact US GDP by approximately 3 percentage points, contributing to economic instability [5]. - The US economy is entering a "stagflation trap," with rising inflation expectations and declining consumer confidence due to tariff-induced uncertainties [4]. Market Reactions - Recent financial market trends show a "sell everything" mentality, with a liquidity shock indicating a growing concern over the dollar's status as a safe asset [7]. - There is a notable shift of funds from US assets to safer alternatives like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold, accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" [8][9]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is being undermined, with increasing pressure from the government to lower interest rates, which could further weaken the dollar [10][12]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the economic impacts of tariff increases may exceed expectations, complicating monetary policy decisions [11]. Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Despite a recent drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), tariffs are expected to be a key factor influencing future inflation trends, with concerns about persistent high inflation [6]. - Market sentiment is deteriorating, with households and businesses reporting increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects, largely attributed to trade policy concerns [12].

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline of the US dollar index, dropping below 98 for the first time in three years, is primarily driven by investor concerns over US trade policy uncertainty and expectations of a weakening economy [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell approximately 10% year-to-date, with a notable drop below the 99 mark and reaching a low of 98.12 [1]. - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed an unexpected decline, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1]. Trade Policy Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policies are impacting economic outlook, contributing to fears of a recession and diminishing confidence in the dollar [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty could lead to a further decline in the dollar index, potentially reaching 95 if conditions do not improve [5]. Market Reactions - Non-US currencies have shown strength against the dollar, with the Japanese yen surpassing 141 and the euro breaking the 1.15 mark [4]. - The market is reacting to political risks associated with the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly following Trump's threats to dismiss Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2]. Future Considerations - The potential implementation of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to devalue the dollar and restructure US debt, poses risks to the stability of US financial markets [6][7]. - Analysts express skepticism about the feasibility of the agreement, citing challenges in international cooperation and the potential negative impact on US Treasury stability [7][8].

当地时间4月21日，美股三大指数全线下跌，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均跌逾2%。大型科技股全线下跌，特斯拉跌逾5%，英伟达跌 逾4%，美股"七巨头"市值合计蒸发4046亿美元（合人民币2.95万亿元）。中概股逆势上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.20%。 美元指数下跌0.88%，非美货币全线上涨。现货黄金价格盘中站上3430美元/盎司，创历史新高。 美股下跌 当地时间4月21日，美股三大指数低开低走，盘中均一度跌逾3%。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌2.48%，跌逾970点；纳斯达克指数下跌2.55%，跌逾 410点；标普500指数下跌2.36%，跌逾120点。 大型科技股全线下跌， Wind美国科技七巨头指数大跌3.06%。特斯拉下跌5.75%，市值蒸发446亿美元；英伟达下跌4.51%，市值蒸发1118亿美元。美 股"七巨头"市值合计蒸发4046亿美元（合人民币2.95万亿元）。 花旗集团股票策略师称，下调对美国股市评级，关税政策损害经济增长和企业盈利，资金撤离美国股市寻求多元化投资的趋势增强。美国银行和贝莱德等 机构也已对美股前景转为看淡。 美元指数盘中跌破98 4月21日，美元指数显 ...

Group 1 - The core driver for the recent increase in gold prices is the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, influenced by President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and hints at potential replacement [3] - Market sentiment remains cautious due to high global economic uncertainty, despite some progress in trade negotiations, leading to sustained inflows of safe-haven funds into gold [3] - The technical analysis indicates a strong upward trend in gold prices, with significant support from moving averages, particularly the 5-day moving average [4][6] Group 2 - Gold has shown a strong performance since April 9, with multiple consecutive days of gains, indicating a robust bullish trend [4] - Recent adjustments in gold prices are viewed as normal technical corrections, not altering the overall upward trajectory [4] - Key resistance levels to watch for gold prices are around 3457/3460, with a potential target of 3500 if these levels are surpassed [4][6] Group 3 - Upcoming economic events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook report, which may impact market dynamics [7]

新华财经纽约4月21日电（记者刘亚南）由于市场对美联储的独立性感到担忧，21日美元兑除加元以外 的一揽子货币走低，美元指数在隔夜市场重挫，当日维持弱势盘整，尾盘时美元指数大幅下跌。 拉扎卡扎达说，特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔拒绝降息公开表达不满，也加剧了市场担忧。鲍威尔强调采 取更加审慎、观望的货币政策立场，而欧洲央行则连续第七次降息。即便如此，欧元兑美元汇率已突破 1.15关口。美元指数则跌破98大关。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1521美元，高于前一交易日的1.1449美元；1英镑兑换1.3378美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3316美元。 1美元兑换140.60日元，低于前一交易日的141.57日元；1美元兑换0.8073瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8125瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3839加元，高于前一交易日的1.3827加元；1美元兑换9.5337瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.5599瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国投行Evercore ISI副董事长兼全球政策和央行策略的负责人克里希纳·古哈（Krishna Guha）表示，可 以看到清楚的信号，市场不喜欢总统试图让美联储主席去职的想法 ...

美元指数21日大幅下跌 金十数据4月22日讯，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌1.10%，在汇市尾市收于98.278。截 至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1521美元，高于前一交易日的1.1449美元；1英镑兑换1.3378美元，高于 前一交易日的1.3316美元。1美元兑换140.60日元，低于前一交易日的141.57日元；1美元兑换0.8073瑞士 法郎，低于前一交易日的0.8125瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3839加元，高于前一交易日的1.3827加元；1美 元兑换9.5337瑞典克朗，低于前一交易日的9.5599瑞典克朗。 ...