刘陈杰系望正资本全球宏观对冲基金董事长，中国首席经济学家论坛成员 2025年作为 "十四五" 收官之年，我国 GDP 规模预计迈向 140 万亿元台阶，为后续发展奠定坚实基础。 而 2026 至 2030 年的 "十五五" 时期，恰是衔接 "十四五" 成果与 2035年现代化目标的关键五年，其合 意 GDP 增长速度的界定关乎战略落地实效。未来一个阶段，我国面临人口结构深刻变化，外部发展环 境明显改变和新一轮人工智能发展浪潮大踏步发展的复杂新环境。同时，以往拉动经济增长的房地产相 关产业和地方债务推动型增长模式式微。那么，探寻未来一个阶段的合意增长速度，安排好供给侧和需 求侧两方面的协调，关乎供给侧结构性改革的实质推进和国家下个阶段的经济社会发展。本文主要从人 口红利、资本存量和全要素增长率等方面入手，基于新古典增长方程，对中国经济在下一阶段(2026 年-2030年)时期的合理增速目标进行了测算。结合我国实际和新一轮科技革命的时代背景，本文综合考 虑了：（1)人工智能技术进步对经济增速的影响；（2)部分时期应对有效需求不足情况下，政策 的"量"和"度"等，探寻下一阶段我国经济的合意总量增长速度。我们深知，未 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of combining market mechanisms with government planning to enhance resource allocation and address market failures, showcasing the advantages of the socialist system [1] - The five-year plan serves three main functions: it constrains public resource allocation, guides social resource distribution, and stabilizes social expectations, providing clear policy signals for market entities [1] - The AES100 engine, a significant project under the "14th Five-Year Plan," represents China's first independently developed civil turbine engine meeting international airworthiness standards, highlighting advancements in the aerospace sector [3] Group 2 - The planning system allows China to balance short-term market rationality with long-term strategic foresight, facilitating the establishment of a comprehensive industrial system since the early years of the new China [3][4] - The integration of micro and macro perspectives through market mechanisms and planning is crucial for developing a favorable industrial ecosystem, as seen in industries like photovoltaics, drones, 5G, and new energy vehicles [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" addresses the issue of insufficient effective demand by emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand as a strategic foundation, indicating a proactive approach to economic growth [5]

央广网北京10月23日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，国际社会高度 关注中国共产党二十届四中全会，认为这一重要会议将进一步促进中国高质量发展，为世界注入更多稳 定性和正能量，为其他国家探索发展道路提供新借鉴，为人类发展进步作出新贡献。 联合国环境规划署执行主任安德森高度赞赏中国生态文明建设取得的成就，期待"十五五"规划使中 国在全球生态环境治理中继续发挥引领者作用。 安德森：我很关注中国正在制定的"十五五"规划，尤其是涉及循环经济和绿色发展的内容。习主席 提出的"绿水青山就是金山银山"理念，不仅饱含诗意，而且意义重大。将生态保护视作创造财富的途 径，已经得到了国际社会的广泛认同。"十五五"规划无疑将让中国开启又一个令人振奋的新篇章。 美国中美研究中心高级研究员古普塔：中国共产党和中国政府与时俱进，作出发展规划，西方和美 国的许多经济学者都认可这种规划的必要性和价值。中国在规划中不断调整策略，走向更具指导性和灵 活性的模式，我认为中国的规划堪称一门艺术。 世界经济论坛中东北非负责人凯鲁兹认为，中国以科技创新推动高质量发展，为全球经济发展注入 新动能。 凯鲁兹：中国已通过高质量发展在众多领 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Accommodation Industry" by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments, aimed at enhancing the quality of the accommodation sector and supporting service consumption growth [1][2]. Group 2 - The background for the issuance of the "Guiding Opinions" includes the emphasis from the Central Committee and the State Council on promoting service consumption, recognizing the accommodation industry as a vital part of the tertiary sector and a key area for service consumption [2]. - The accommodation industry faces challenges such as insufficient brand development, homogeneous competition, and low levels of green development, necessitating coordinated efforts to support high-quality growth [2]. Group 3 - The overall approach of the "Guiding Opinions" is to align with Xi Jinping's thought, implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress, and promote high-quality development in the accommodation sector through supply-side structural reforms and enhancing service quality [3]. - The "Guiding Opinions" include six major policy measures with a total of 17 specific actions aimed at fostering brand development, enhancing service quality, promoting green development, optimizing the business environment, strengthening support elements, and solidifying the foundation for work [4]. Group 4 - Key features of the "Guiding Opinions" include a problem-oriented approach to systematically improve development quality, focusing on supply-side structural reforms to address industry shortcomings and expand quality accommodation services [5]. - The "Guiding Opinions" emphasize optimizing the environment to stimulate industry growth, proposing measures to enhance market order, regulatory practices, and transparency, thereby fostering a fair and innovative competitive landscape [5]. - Safety is highlighted as a prerequisite for high-quality development, with measures proposed to strengthen personal information protection, security management, and food safety responsibilities, ensuring a safe accommodation environment for consumers [5]. Group 5 - The Ministry of Commerce plans to collaborate with relevant departments to guide local implementation of the policies, promote beneficial local practices, and further the high-quality development of the accommodation industry to meet consumer demands for quality lodging services [6].

Core Viewpoint - Despite global economic uncertainties, China's economy has shown a robust upward trend, achieving significant milestones in GDP growth [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - China's total economic output has consistently surpassed 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan, with a five-year economic increment equivalent to creating a third-largest economy in the world [1] - In September, China's total import and export value reached 4.04 trillion yuan, marking an 8% year-on-year increase, the highest monthly growth rate this year [3] - The country's foreign trade has remained stable and resilient, with a record high of 20 trillion yuan in import and export scale in the first half of the year [3] Group 2: Policy and Leadership - The leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is deemed essential for addressing risks and challenges, ensuring social stability, and providing a "stability anchor" for long-term economic development [2][5] - The CPC has effectively broken down overall development goals into specific targets and processes, ensuring strategic continuity and policy stability through the implementation of five-year plans [4] Group 3: Strategic Planning - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and high-level opening up, marking a shift from reliance on investment and exports to a new growth model driven by domestic demand and innovation [8] - The integration of strategic planning with macroeconomic policies enhances resource allocation efficiency and stabilizes market expectations [6] Group 4: Market and Government Interaction - The effective market and proactive government approach is crucial for resource allocation and risk management, aiming to build a high-level socialist market economy [10] - The government plays a vital role in creating favorable conditions for enterprises, particularly in areas like public research and support for small and medium-sized enterprises [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - By 2035, China aims to achieve basic socialist modernization and reach a per capita GDP level comparable to that of developed countries, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" being a critical period for this transition [12]

110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元……"十四五"期间，我国坚持稳中求进工作总基调，经济总量连续跨越新关口。2025年，中国经济总量预计约140万亿 元。习近平总书记曾多次指出，中国经济具有"基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大"的特点，强调要坚持以推动高质量发展为主题，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长，为我们持续做好经济工作指明方向。 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年。我们要继续锚定奋斗目标，坚定信心、砥砺前行，努力把各方面积极因素转化为发展实 绩，书写经济高质量发展新篇章。 2022年10月16日,习近平在中国共产党第二十次全国 代表大会上的报告 2021-2024年,内需对我国经济增长平均贡献率 达86.8%;其中,最终消费支出平均贡献率为 59.9%，比"十三五"时期提高11.1个百分点。投 资对优化供给结构的关键性作用持续发挥, 2021 -2024年高技术产业投资年均增长13.5%,明显 快于整体投资增速。 要完善国家创新体系,激发各类创新主体 活力,瞄准世界科技前沿,在加强基础研 究、提高原始创新能力上持续用力,在突破 关键核心技术、前沿技术上抓紧攻关。 -20 ...

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's GDP has successively crossed the thresholds of 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan, with an expected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025 [1][3] - The focus is on promoting high-quality development, emphasizing effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [1][6] Economic Growth - By 2024, China's GDP is projected to exceed 134 trillion yuan, representing a 23.9% increase from 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [3] - The economic increment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan [3] Domestic Demand and Investment - From 2021 to 2024, domestic demand is projected to contribute an average of 86.8% to economic growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing 59.9%, an increase of 11.1 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [7] - High-tech industry investment is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 13.5% from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [7] Innovation and R&D - By 2024, total R&D expenditure is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan, maintaining China's position as the second-largest in the world [11] - By 2025, China aims to rank 10th in the global innovation index, improving by four positions since 2020, and leading in the number of top 100 innovation clusters globally [11] Market Development - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and enhancing international competitiveness [14] - By 2024, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP is expected to decrease to 14.1%, with market-based electricity transactions accounting for 63% of total electricity consumption [16] International Trade - China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions, with the proportion of trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries rising from 29.1% in 2020 to 50.3% in 2024 [20] - The China-Europe Railway Express has reached 26 countries and over 200 cities in Europe, with a cumulative operation exceeding 110,000 trains [20] Manufacturing Sector - From 2021 to 2024, the actual growth rate of manufacturing value-added is expected to average 5.4%, maintaining a global share close to 30% and ranking first in the world for 15 consecutive years [26] - The proportion of equipment manufacturing in total industrial value-added is projected to increase from 33.7% in 2020 to 34.6% in 2024 [26]

进入新时代，中国经济航船闯激流险滩、战艰难险阻，向着一个又一个胜利笃定前行。 "党中央集中统一领导是做好经济工作的根本保证，在关键时刻、重要节点，党中央及时研判形势、作 出决策部署，确保我国经济航船乘风破浪、行稳致远。" 关键时刻必有关键抉择。 彼时，中国经济增速从两位数滑落至8%以下，与此同时发展粗放、环境污染问题逐步显现，"速度焦 虑""转型迷茫"互相交织。中国经济将向何处去？未来发展之路怎么走？一时间众说纷纭。 "我国发展仍处于重要战略机遇期，我们要增强信心，从当前我国经济发展的阶段性特征出发，适应新 常态，保持战略上的平常心态。" 那次河南之行，习近平总书记首次公开提出"新常态"概念，深刻指明我国当前和今后一个时期经济发展 的大逻辑。 "速度再快一点，非不能也，而不为也""不能简单以生产总值增长率论英雄""经济发展动力正从传统增 长点转向新的增长点"…… 习近平总书记的一系列重要论述，直指长期存在的片面政绩观，指引行至关键阶段的中国经济校准航 向，牢牢掌握新时代发展的历史主动。 新时代以来的这些年极不寻常、极不平凡，改革发展稳定任务之艰巨世所罕见、史所罕见。一路风雨兼 程，一路劈波斩浪，我们的信心更强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of key decisions made by the Chinese leadership, particularly under Xi Jinping's economic thought, in navigating the complexities of the modern economy and ensuring sustainable growth. Group 1: Economic Strategy and Development - The Chinese economy has faced unprecedented challenges, yet it continues to progress towards modernization, driven by Xi Jinping's economic thought [1][5][8] - The concept of "new normal" was introduced to guide economic development amidst slowing growth and environmental concerns, emphasizing a shift from traditional growth drivers to new ones [3][4] - The focus on supply-side structural reforms and the establishment of a dual circulation economic model highlights the strategic shift towards domestic demand and innovation [5][9] Group 2: Policy Responses and Economic Stability - In response to economic pressures, the Chinese government has implemented a series of macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and measures to stabilize the real estate and stock markets [7][17] - The government's proactive approach during critical times has been recognized as a significant milestone in macroeconomic management, ensuring the achievement of annual economic goals [7][8] - The introduction of new policy financial tools aims to enhance support for the real economy and stimulate effective investment [17][21] Group 3: Innovation and Modernization - Emphasis on technological and industrial innovation is seen as essential for developing new productive forces and achieving high-quality growth [19][20] - The commitment to green development and addressing climate change reflects a strategic focus on sustainable economic practices [11][22] - The ongoing reforms in various sectors, including the establishment of free trade zones and market access improvements, are designed to enhance China's economic openness and competitiveness [21][22]

Core Insights - The insurance industry is transitioning from "selling insurance" to "managing health," driven by both internal demands for breakthroughs and external environmental challenges [1][2] - Major insurance companies are exploring diversified health management strategies, integrating technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain into their services [1][2] Group 1: Challenges in Transformation - Medical resource integration is a significant challenge due to the complexity and personalization of medical services, leading to difficulties in quality control and standardization [1][2] - The sustainability of business models is questioned as health management typically requires substantial upfront investment with delayed returns, making it difficult to transition from a "cost center" to a "profit engine" [2][3] - Compliance with data application regulations poses a challenge, as the collection and use of sensitive health data must adhere to strict legal frameworks, complicating the ability to leverage data effectively [2][4] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should focus on enhancing professional capabilities and building high-quality service systems to address resource integration challenges, including establishing specialized medical management teams and monitoring service quality [3][4] - Innovation in business models is essential, with a need to broaden revenue sources and quantify the value of health management services to demonstrate their commercial viability [3][4] - Strengthening technology empowerment and compliance governance is crucial for effective data utilization, requiring the establishment of robust data management systems and partnerships with various stakeholders [4]