2025年7月，创业板指呈现显著上涨态势，月度累计涨幅达8.14%，延续了6月的上涨趋势，形成连续两个月的强势表现，在市场普涨的行情下领先其它市场 大盘指数；资金面方面，7月市场交投活跃度显著提升，月末A股日均成交额超2万亿元，较6月环比增长显著。在价量齐升的背景下市场风格明显偏向成 长。在具体行业层面，整个7月医药生物、通信等板块涨幅靠前，均为创业板权重领域，行业的表现与创业板指的强势形成呼应。那么站在八月初展望未 来，创业板指是否还有配置机会？ 图：6月底以来市场情绪积极利好成长风格 数据来源：Wind，截至2025/7/31 我们先梳理海内外的宏观环境。国内宏观经济方面，7月制造业PMI在荣枯线下方继续回落，PPI数据仍然承压，但"反内卷"政策对原材料、产成品价格起到 明显提振作用。政治局会议信号显示，下半年经济政策重心转向调结构，结构性货币政策工具将重点支持科技创新、消费等领域，与创业板的行业构成高度 契合，后续随供需格局改善，指数盈利边际上或改善明显。海外方面，美联储货币政策走向成为关键变量。FOMC未于7月降息，叠加非农数据显著下修点 燃市场降息预期。对华关税或维持原先走势，但考虑美国经济景气程度 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the investment landscape, focusing on the current macroeconomic environment and various growth styles, particularly in the context of the A-share market and emerging technologies such as AI and robotics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Global Kondratieff Cycle**: The current macro backdrop is characterized by the tail end of a global Kondratieff cycle, similar to the 1930s and 1970s, where both safe assets and growth styles can generate returns [1][2][7] 2. **Investment Themes**: The potential for growth styles to evolve into main investment themes is under scrutiny, with a focus on indicators that could signal this transition [2][4] 3. **Market Rotation**: The current industry rotation intensity is close to levels seen in the past 10 to 12 years, indicating a potential for rapid thematic trading [2][9] 4. **Investment Strategy**: Different themes have varying investment characteristics, with some being verifiable and others not. The latter are more susceptible to market fluctuations [3][12][17] 5. **Necessary Conditions for Theme Validation**: Four necessary conditions for a theme to evolve into a main line include early positioning by public funds, active financing in the primary market, increased capital expenditures (CAPEX) by companies, and confirmation of profit cycles through industry research [4][22][24] 6. **Short-term Trading Opportunities**: Current short-term trading opportunities include humanoid robots, domestic patents, and AI applications, which are positioned favorably for potential rebounds [5][30] 7. **Mid-term Investment Focus**: The military and defense sector is highlighted as a verifiable theme, especially with upcoming events like the military parade on September 3, which could serve as a catalyst for price movements [5][27] 8. **Emerging Technologies**: Other sectors such as solid-state batteries, new consumption trends, and innovative pharmaceuticals are also discussed as potential main lines, although their current CAPEX and performance metrics require further observation [6][28][30] 9. **Historical Context**: The historical performance of safe assets and growth styles during previous Kondratieff cycle bottoms suggests a similar pattern may emerge, where both can coexist profitably [7][9] 10. **Market Sentiment and Liquidity**: The impact of liquidity on theme performance is emphasized, with tighter liquidity likely leading to adjustments in theme valuations [15][16][24] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Sector-Specific Dynamics**: The discussion includes specific sectors like low-altitude economy and deep-sea economy, which are driven by policy and may have different market behaviors [12][26] 2. **Investment Timing**: The importance of timing in relation to market cycles and liquidity conditions is highlighted, suggesting that investors should be cautious and strategic in their approach [15][21] 3. **Data Monitoring**: Continuous monitoring of market data and trends is essential for identifying which themes are gaining traction and which are losing momentum [25][30] 4. **Engagement with Analysts**: The call encourages further engagement with the research team for deeper insights and data access, indicating a collaborative approach to investment strategy [31]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the beginning of 2023, the growth style has shown structural opportunities despite weak overall beta, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% in the Yangtze Growth Index[5] - The performance of growth stocks remains the core of trading, as evidenced by the outperformance of fundamental growth indices over high volatility or high beta indices, except for 2025Q2[2][5] Group 2: Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, focusing on quality individual stocks is preferred over thematic investments, especially with the upcoming 2025 mid-term reports[2][21] - The internal structure of the ChiNext growth stocks is heavily weighted towards TMT sectors, with the top three industries accounting for nearly 70% and the electronics sector exceeding 50%[26] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The Yangtze ChiNext Growth Index has shown a year-to-date return of 51.49% as of July 31, 2025, outperforming other indices in the same period[22] - The performance of growth stocks is characterized by high volatility, necessitating precise selection during recovery phases to enhance returns[6][22] Group 4: Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes that historical data does not guarantee future performance, highlighting the potential for policy and liquidity risks to impact growth stock performance[10][32] - The difficulty in capturing thematic investment opportunities is noted, as high volatility and high beta styles have not consistently yielded strong returns in recent years[21][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report recommends maintaining a high allocation to equity assets in August, with small-cap and growth styles expected to be dominant. It also suggests focusing on relatively stable "Fixed Income +" funds and short-duration bond funds [3][69]. Summary by Directory 7 - Month Review Stock Market - A - shares and U.S. stocks rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.33%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 5.06%, the Dow Jones Index rose 1.83%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 3.63%. Positive signals drove A - shares up, and the U.S. economy's resilience led to U.S. stock gains [9][11]. Bond Market - U.S. Treasury and Chinese government bond yields increased. The 1 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.09%, the 10 - year to 4.40%; the 1 - year Chinese government bond yield rose to 1.38%, and the 10 - year to 1.73% [9]. Commodity Market - Commodity prices increased. The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.67%, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 6.22%, and COMEX gold rose 0.71%. Crude oil prices also slightly increased [9]. Foreign Exchange Market - The U.S. dollar index rose to 97.67, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated slightly, remaining around 7.17 [9]. Fund Market - The fund market performed well in July, but the issuance scale decreased. As of July 25, the total fund issuance scale was 81.9 billion yuan, a 33% decrease from the previous month. Equity - type funds accounted for 38% of the issuance, with a 30% decline in scale compared to the previous month. Ordinary stock - type funds performed outstandingly. In addition, on - exchange funds had a net inflow, while equity - type ETFs and LOFs had net outflows [29][34]. - Active equity funds increased their positions in the prosperity, dividend, and quality styles, with median positions of 33%, 24%, and 30% respectively, up 12%, 10%, and 9% from the end of the previous month, and reduced their positions in the value - potential style, with the median position dropping 13% to 2% [35]. 8 - Month Outlook Asset Allocation Logic - The stock - bond rotation model indicates that the private - sector financing growth rate continued to rise in June, with growth and inflation factors increasing, suggesting significant fundamental improvement and continued bullishness on equity assets. The A - share market sentiment index shows that sentiment indicators are oscillating at a high level, and overall market sentiment remains optimistic [3][69]. Market Style - The growth - value style rotation model recommends the growth style, as market factors and U.S. Treasury yields are favorable for growth, although style momentum favors value [59]. - The small - and large - cap style rotation model suggests the small - cap style, as the current monetary environment and short - and long - term style momentum still recommend small - cap stocks [64]. Fund Allocation Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a high allocation to equity assets, focus on small - cap and growth styles, pay attention to relatively stable "Fixed Income +" funds, and short - duration bond funds. Specific funds recommended include Dongwu Mobile Internet (001323.OF, medium - high risk), Anxin Advantage Growth (001287.OF, medium - high risk), Huaxia Innovation Frontier (002980.OF, medium - high risk), Bank of China Steady Income (380009.OF, medium risk), and Penghua Stable Income Short - Term Bond (007515.OF) [3][69].

Market Overview - The market sentiment remains strong, focusing on "rotation and supplementary gains," with growth expected to follow the cyclical trends. Market transactions have further increased, and the sentiment is still heated, making it easier for indices to rise while the downside risk is limited [2][4] - The market rotation characteristics have continued, shifting from a "barbell contraction" to an "expansion," although chasing gains remains challenging. It is recommended to reduce operations and select relatively low-position thematic directions for layout and holding, waiting for opportunities for "rotation and supplementary gains" [2][4] Stock Market Factors - In the past week, the small-cap growth style outperformed, while the volatility of large and small-cap styles remained at a near one-year low. The volatility of value and growth styles has increased [6] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices remained at a near one-year low, with the speed of industry rotation oscillating upward and the proportion of rising constituent stocks increasing. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries has slightly decreased [6] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of the precious metals sector remains at a near one-year high, while the trend strength of the black sector has rapidly increased. The basis momentum of the precious metals sector is rising, while other sectors show oscillating downward trends [15] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility levels of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 have shown an upward trend, with the skew of call options maintaining previous levels while the skew of put options has significantly decreased. The market is generally optimistic due to policy-driven and sentiment-driven factors [21] Convertible Bond Market Factors - In the convertible bond market, the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan remains resilient, continuing to rise slightly, with less than 10 basis points difference from the peak in May. The proportion of low premium rate convertible bonds has shown signs of weakening, especially those below 5%, while the trading volume in the convertible bond market has increased alongside the heat in the equity market [26]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 1.5% this week, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.0%[3] - Large-cap value stocks (Russell 1000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 1.6%, compared to small-cap value (1.4%), large-cap growth (1.2%), and small-cap growth (0.5%)[3] Sector Performance - 21 sectors experienced gains, with durable goods and apparel leading at +5.3%, followed by telecommunications (+5.2%) and pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences (+5.2%)[3] - The automotive and auto parts sector saw a decline of -3.4%, while food, beverage, and tobacco fell by -1.0%[3] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$2.2 billion this week, down from +$45.5 billion last week[4] - The pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and life sciences sector saw the highest inflow at +$1.5 billion, while the automotive sector had the largest outflow at -$2.5 billion[4] Earnings Forecast - The 12-month forward EPS estimate for S&P 500 components was revised up by 0.5% this week, following a 0.6% increase last week[5] - 22 sectors had upward revisions, with media and entertainment leading at +1.9% and real estate at +1.4%[5] Economic Risks - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policy, and Federal Reserve monetary policy[5]

Market Performance - On July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.50%[2] - The total market turnover was 1,844.402 billion CNY, a decrease of 19.873 billion CNY from the previous trading day[2] - A total of 4,463 stocks rose while 916 stocks fell[2] Market Style and Sector Performance - Growth stocks outperformed other styles, with the ranking being: Growth > Cyclical > Consumer > Stable > Financial[18] - The Consumer Services sector led with a rise of 3.84%, followed by Nonferrous Metals at 2.79% and Comprehensive Finance at 2.69%[18] - The Banking sector declined by 1.38%, while Communication and Oil & Petrochemicals fell by 0.10% and 0.08%, respectively[18] Capital Flow - On July 24, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 6.548 billion CNY, with large orders seeing a net inflow of 15.607 billion CNY and small orders continuing to see net inflows of 13.412 billion CNY[22] - The majority of ETFs, including the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, saw a decrease in turnover compared to the previous trading day[27] Global Market Performance - Major Asian indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.51% and the Nikkei 225 up by 1.59%[31] - European indices generally rose, with the DAX Index increasing by 0.83% and the CAC40 Index by 1.37%[31] - In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.14%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.78% and 0.61%, respectively[31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the performance and strategies of active equity funds in Q2 2025, highlighting the market's recovery and the shifting focus of fund managers towards various sectors such as consumption, pharmaceuticals, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and high-end manufacturing [10][23][41]. Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the A-share market experienced a fluctuating upward trend, with significant sector rotation and style switching. The National Index 2000 and ChiNext 50 recorded positive returns of 4.41% and 3.19%, respectively, while the median return of active equity funds was 1.90%, outperforming major indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500 [10][12][14]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of active equity funds was 3.29 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 3.33 trillion yuan in the previous quarter. The net outflow of funds in Q1 2025 was 113.407 billion yuan, with 74.34% of funds experiencing a decline of more than 1% [15][19]. - The average stock position of active equity funds was 87.23%, with 39.57% of funds adjusting their positions by 0 to 5% [19][21]. Group 3 - The top five industries with increased allocations were telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, banking, and defense industry, while the top five industries with reduced allocations included food and beverage, automotive, retail, electric equipment and new energy, and machinery [23][24]. - The report indicates a significant shift in fund managers' focus towards sectors with growth potential, particularly in AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing, while also noting the challenges faced by traditional sectors [41][62]. Group 4 - Fund managers expressed optimism about the resilience of the Chinese economy and the potential for recovery, with a focus on undervalued assets in traditional sectors and growth opportunities in emerging industries [41][49][62]. - The report highlights the increasing interest in innovative pharmaceuticals, with a notable rise in the number of clinical trials and international collaborations, reflecting a trend towards globalization in the pharmaceutical industry [62][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - From July 14 to July 19, 2025, the convertible bond market continued its gentle recovery, with steadily rising trading activity. The focus of capital allocation shifted towards mid - cap individual bonds with fundamental support and elasticity expectations. The equity market continued its structural differentiation, with the growth style relatively dominant. The science - and - technology innovation sector performed prominently, and there was also capital inflow in the cyclical manufacturing direction. The valuation structure of convertible bonds stretched overall, and the impetus for valuation repair of medium - and high - parity bonds increased. Since 2025, the proportion of convertible bonds held by insurance funds has been continuously rising compared to 2024, reflecting the enhanced preference of stable long - term funds for assets that combine increased returns and high safety margins. It is recommended to balance the layout of high - quality medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with coupon advantages and credit support while paying attention to high - prosperity directions [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Insurance Funds' Allocation in the Convertible Bond Market - As of June 2025, the proportion of convertible bonds held by insurance funds had steadily increased to 8.1%. Although the absolute face value of holdings decreased slightly due to market shrinkage, it showed an enhanced preference for convertible bond assets with safety margins and stable returns. It is recommended to focus on varieties with low valuations, high coupons, and good credit qualifications as an important supplement to the bottom - position defensive allocation [9]. - From the overall perspective of the two markets, the proportion of convertible bonds held by insurance funds in the market showed a marginal upward trend. Although the face value of convertible bonds held by insurance institutions decreased from 64.58 billion yuan in June 2024 to 57.64 billion yuan in June 2025, mainly due to the simultaneous decline in the overall scale of the convertible bond market, the proportion increased from 7.8% to 8.1%, indicating an enhanced relative allocation willingness [16]. - In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the proportion of insurance funds increased significantly, while in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it was relatively stable. In June 2025, in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the proportion of insurance funds increased by 1.2 percentage points year - on - year to 6.7%. In the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the proportion of insurance funds decreased by 0.2 percentage points year - on - year to 9.1%, possibly due to the conversion or maturity of some bank convertible bonds [18][21]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review 3.2.1 Equity Theme Weekly Review - During the week from July 14 to July 19, 2025, the trading themes in the equity market were active. The rare - earth index led the market with a 17.5% cross - week increase, and the first - board index followed with a 15.3% increase. The pharmaceutical technology theme performed well, and the new - energy sector recovered slightly. The digital economy sector showed structural differentiation. Some trading - related indexes showed significant increases, but there were risks of short - term volatility amplification [26]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Weekly Review - During the week, the convertible bond market continued to rise, with the increase moderately converging. The trading activity reached a new stage high, and the market style shifted towards small - cap bonds. The valuation structure showed that the low - parity range was repaired, and the high - parity range was compressed. The implied volatility rose, and the market sentiment stabilized and recovered. At the industry level, the home appliance, computer, and communication sectors led the increase. It is recommended to focus on medium - priced bonds with safety margins and catalytic expectations and seize the rotation and repair window [29]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Stock Indexes Strengthened, with High - Prosperity Sectors as the Main Theme of the Week - The main A - share stock indexes continued to strengthen. The ChiNext Index led the rise with a 3.2% cross - week increase. The science - and - technology innovation small - and - medium - cap stocks performed prominently. However, the main funds continued to flow out, and the outflow pressure increased. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 1.5 trillion yuan, the same as last week [30]. - The A - share market continued its structural differentiation. The communication sector led the rise with a 7.5% increase, while the bank sector led the decline with a 3.4% decrease. The trading volume of leading sectors expanded with the increase in prices. The market funds continued to concentrate on high - prosperity sectors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the high - prosperity sector market [34]. - The market sector congestion showed a differentiated pattern, with funds concentrating on high - elasticity sectors. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of increased volatility in sectors with continuously high congestion [40]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Market Followed and Strengthened, with Small - Cap Convertible Bonds Performing Well - The convertible bond market continued to rise, with small - cap convertible bonds leading the increase. The valuation stretched in each parity range, and the implied volatility continued to rise. The median price of convertible bonds oscillated upward, indicating high market trading sentiment [44][50][53]. - The performance of convertible bonds in each sector was generally strong, with funds becoming more concentrated. The home appliance, computer, and communication sectors led the increase, and the pharmaceutical, basic chemical, and power equipment sectors ranked among the top in terms of trading volume [56]. - Individual convertible bonds generally strengthened. The top - rising convertible bonds were mostly driven by the underlying stocks, while the top - falling ones were dragged down by the underlying stocks [62][63]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking and Clause Game - During the week from July 14 to July 19, 2025, two convertible bonds were listed, and seven listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans. The current total scale of projects in the exchange - acceptance stage and later was 64.96 billion yuan [68][69][71]. - Regarding the downward - revision of convertible bonds, eight convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward - revision, four announced no downward - revision, and one proposed downward - revision [75][78]. - Regarding the early redemption of convertible bonds, five convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption, three announced no early redemption, and five announced early redemption [83].