欧洲央行会议纪要：四月降息或被视为提前实施六月的货币政策调整。 ...

近期，两位美联储官员的言论引发了市场的广泛关注。旧金山联储主席戴利强调，在经济面临高度不确定 性的情况下，美联储在调整政策之前可以保持耐心并评估即将发布的数据。克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克也指 出，官员们在未来几个月仍需要掌握"大量"信息。这些言论似乎表明，美联储在当前复杂的经济形势下， 可能会进入一个相对谨慎的"观望期"，在做出进一步的货币政策调整之前，更加注重对经济数据的深入分 析和评估。 美联储官员呼吁保持耐心并评估更多数据，反映了其在当前经济不确定性下的谨慎态度。ETO外汇认为这 种态度有助于避免政策调整的盲目性，但也需要在必要时及时做出调整，以应对经济形势的变化。未来一 段时间，美联储的政策走向将取决于经济数据的表现以及全球经济形势的发展。市场将密切关注美联储的 每一个动作，以寻找未来经济走向的线索。 从美国国内经济情况来看，虽然美国经济在某些方面表现出一定的韧性，但仍然存在一些潜在的风险。例 如，通货膨胀率的波动、就业市场的不稳定以及金融市场的情绪变化等，都可能对经济增长产生影响。美 联储需要更多的时间和数据来评估这些因素对经济的综合影响，从而做出更加精准的政策调整。 此外，美联储的货币政策调整还需要考 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper futures main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Globally, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, while domestic copper mine port inventories are increasing, and domestic smelters' production is stable. The supply is slightly increasing due to sufficient domestic raw material supply and favorable copper prices. However, downstream consumption has limited room for improvement as copper prices are high, copper product processing plants have fewer new orders and lower operating rates, and buyers are cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may see a slight increase in supply, a slowdown in demand, and a small accumulation of industry inventory. The options market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 77,920 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,507 dollars/ton, down 26.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 153,061 lots, down 10,259 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 8,104 lots, up 1,294 lots. The LME copper inventory is 168,825 tons, down 1,925 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 108,142 tons, up 27,437 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 31,754 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,085 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,165 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 110 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 93 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 165 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 14.01 dollars/ton, up 10.85 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 292.44 million tons per month, up 53.13 million tons. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.05 dollars/kiloton, up 0.06 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,800 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,500 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are 700 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons per month, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956.22 billion yuan per month, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 27,729.57 billion yuan per month, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.97%, down 1.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.99%, down 0.19%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.99%, down 0.0117%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.85, down 0.046 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities maintained a certain level of activity, but "trading at lower prices" was the mainstream. The average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with the month - on - month decline widening to 0.69% and a year - on - year decline of 7.23%. The second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.36% month - on - month. Shanghai issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting consumer goods replacement, supporting automobile and home appliance consumption, and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing. In the first quarter, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles globally reached 4.02 million, a year - on - year increase of 39%, accounting for 18.4% of global automobile sales. Two Fed officials emphasized patience in adjusting policies. The ECB warned of a potential "fundamental institutional change" due to Trump's tariff policies. China supported 33 least - developed African countries in using the zero - tariff policy, and the import volume from these countries reached 21.42 billion dollars from December 1 last year to March this year, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2].

| | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,210.00 | +20.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 3,216.00 | -30.00↓ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 55.00 | +5.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -9.00 | +2.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 203,373.00 | +3149.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 373,044.00 | +16037.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 66,175.00 | -2025.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 251,154.00 | -19011.00↓ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 瓦楞纸日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 第二部分 行情研判 瓦楞及箱板纸市场主流持稳，部分上调。中国 AA 级 120g 瓦楞纸市场日均价为 2540 元/ 吨，环比上一工作日上涨 0.22%；中国箱板纸市场均价 3524.4 元/吨，环比上涨 0.15%。 市场情绪：市场多数持稳，个别上行。规模纸厂报价上行，带动局部地区价格上调，目 前下游订单暂时未见明显改善，部分下游拿货节奏有所放缓，纸厂库存压力较前期有所减轻， 开工多是正常。 山东市场：废黄板纸市场价格上涨。全国均价为 1452 元/吨，上涨 7 元/吨。打包站回 收量一般，出货意向稳定，局部废黄板纸供应偏少。纸厂采购意向偏强，龙头纸企采购价格 有所上涨，部分纸厂跟涨，整体呈现南涨北稳趋势。（卓创） $$\mathbf{1}\;\;/\;\;\mathbf{4}$$ 研究员：朱四祥 F03127108 投资咨询证号： Z0020124 联系方式： : zhusixiang_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业证号： 瓦楞纸日报 第一部分 数据分析 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 【逻辑分析】 近期纸企集 ...

斯里兰卡央行：将隔夜政策利率下调25个基点至7.75%。 ...

日本央行审议委员野口旭：我们的基本货币政策立场应谨慎推进政策调整，同时密切关注经济状况及其 潜在风险。 ...

各位上午好今天是5月21号欢迎来到摩根士丹利每周三的这个周期论件的在线直播我是张蕾Rachel基础藏链行的分析师今天的话呢我们讨论几个主题一个呢请我们的汽车行业的分析师Shirley Wang会聊一下他们最近在汽车产业链的调研回来的反馈然后接着呢我们工业板块的首席钟盛会聊一下他们对工业板块最新的一些观点 然后我们金融行业的首席虚然也会聊一下最近他们在沿海城市调研了一下出口的影响以及金融行业的一些最近的一些观点 然后最后的话我们新能源行业的EVA会聊一下他们最近对行业的一些观点的更新开始之前我需要读一个DISCLAIMER请注意本次会议已经面向摩根史丹利的机构客户以及财务顾问本会议不对媒体开放如果您来自媒体的话敬请退出会议另外提示一下大家在整个会议的过程中您可以随时在屏幕上发送您的问题不需要等到最后这样我们可以节约一些Q&A等待的时间 好的那我也不多说了我先把时间交给Shirley谢谢Rachel我是汽车组的Shirley那我们上周调研了一些汽车零部件公司包括像桑花、拓普、旭声、敏时、军升、艾克迪、威迈斯等等那可能跟大家来分享一下就这次调研的几个take away第一个就大家关心比较多的是这个关税的影响 那汽车 ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC商品策略研究 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该 是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖 边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 中美发布日内瓦联合声明以来，商品市场整体呈现反弹态势，多品种价格回升至4月初水 平。本轮行情的驱动有需求端预期回暖的因素，同时部分品种供给收缩驱动反弹，如 PX-PTA、苯乙烯、氧化铝等。 短期市场可能逐步消化90天暂缓关税窗口期内出现的需求端主导的强现实，而在后续的 商品交易中，宏观上仍依赖于贸易政策变化、美国货币政策调整，以及国内的政策实 效。而微观层面，需要注意交付周期较短商品的需求集中释放带来的变化，以及供应端 收缩品种的"利润-复产"决策的调整。 而对于"订单-采购原料-生产-交付"这一流程来说，部分工序复杂的商品难以实现快速交 付，美国对此类商品的需求未必会在关税缓征期内明显增长。对于交付周期较短的如 ...

Core Insights - Japan is considering reviewing its tax exemption policy for small parcels, aiming to strengthen scrutiny on cross-border e-commerce tax channels, joining a global trend [1][3] - The Japanese government is discussing potential changes to the current exemption for imported goods valued under 10,000 yen (approximately 500 RMB), which may include a 10% consumption tax on small imports from platforms like Shein and Temu [3] Group 1 - The Japanese Cabinet Office has discussed the implications of the small parcel exemption policy, focusing on fair competition and the risk of illegal drugs and counterfeit goods entering Japan [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to modify the tax system next year, with detailed new tax policies expected by 2026 [3] - In 2022, Japan imported approximately 169.66 million small parcels valued at 425.8 billion yen, marking a fivefold increase over the past five years, with Shein and Temu being significant contributors [3] Group 2 - Other countries, including the United States and several European nations, are also considering adjustments to their small parcel tax exemption policies [4] - The U.S. has recently ended its tax exemption for small parcels valued under $800 from China, leading to price increases for products from Shein and Temu [4] - The European Union has proposed to eliminate the exemption for parcels under 150 euros by 2027-2028, while the UK and France are also reviewing their respective small parcel tax rules [4]