Core Viewpoint - The US dollar shows strength against the Japanese yen, with a notable increase of 0.92% to 144.02 yen, indicating a bullish trend in the currency market [1] Currency Movements - The euro appreciates by 0.28% against the yen, while the British pound rises by 0.73% against the yen, reflecting a general strengthening of these currencies against the yen [1] - The euro declines by 0.62% against the US dollar, and the British pound decreases by 0.19% against the dollar, suggesting a mixed performance in the euro and pound against the dollar [1] - The US dollar gains 0.82% against the Swiss franc, indicating a strong performance in the dollar against this currency [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar falls by 0.50% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar decreases by 0.61% against the dollar, showing weakness in these commodity-linked currencies [1] - The US dollar shows a slight increase of 0.05% against the Canadian dollar, indicating stability in this currency pair [1] Scandinavian and Other Currencies - The Swedish krona declines by 1.06% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreases by 0.81% against the dollar, reflecting a bearish trend for these currencies [1] - The Danish krone falls by 0.60% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty decreases by 1.14% against the dollar, indicating a broader trend of depreciation among these currencies [1]

星展银行：贸易法庭否决特朗普关税后，汇率可能会出现更多波动 金十数据5月29日讯，星展集团的分析师Philip Wee在评论中表示，在美国联邦贸易法院周三驳回总统特 朗普的全球关税政策之后，外汇市场可能会出现更多波动。这位资深外汇策略师表示："这项裁决是否 会改变游戏规则还有待观察，因为最高法院的保守派多数受到特朗普任命的影响。"白宫可以对这一裁 决提出上诉，并在诉讼进行期间寻求紧急中止。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a recovery in revenue and gross margin to average levels in Q1, benefiting from a balanced supply-demand structure in the LED downstream market and reduced price competition, but maintains a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to uncertainties in international situations and unclear tariff policies [1][2] Group 1: Q1 Performance - In Q1, the company's revenue and gross margin returned to average levels, primarily due to a balanced supply-demand structure in the LED downstream market, which effectively reduced price competition [1] - The product mix has been continuously optimized, with capital expenditures and expenses showing a downward trend [1] - The proportion of non-visible light and automotive products in the product mix increased, accounting for 15% and 14% of revenue, respectively, while the share of lower-margin backlighting and lighting products decreased [1] Group 2: Outlook for Q2 and Beyond - The company expects Q1 revenue to remain flat compared to the same period last year, influenced by tariff impacts and one-time revenue from the previous year [2] - Due to the unpredictable impact of tariffs, increased uncertainties in international situations, and exchange rate fluctuations, the company has adopted a more conservative view on its previously anticipated single-digit growth for the year [2] - The planned factory establishment in Thailand is currently on hold due to unclear tariff policies, but the company hopes to realize the initial vision in the future [2] Group 3: Future Product Growth - For 2025, non-visible light and visible light segments are expected to grow above the average growth rate, while the lighting and backlighting segments are projected to remain flat [2] - The flat growth in the backlighting segment is attributed to the strategic disposal of certain products to other investment companies last year [2] - The company is aware of demands from clients in Europe and the U.S. for supply chains to have "non-mainland China production capacity" and will continue to monitor changes in international trade situations to meet customer needs and market challenges [2]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has appreciated against the Japanese yen, with an increase of 1%, currently trading at 144.32 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate movement indicates a strengthening of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market [1]

Group 1 - The New Taiwan Dollar has strengthened against the US Dollar, surpassing the 30 mark, reaching its highest level since May 5 [1] - The Philippine Peso has risen to its highest level against the US Dollar since August 2023, increasing by 0.1% to 55.20 [1] - The US Dollar Index continues its downward trend, decreasing by approximately 0.2% to 98.91 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the re-evaluation of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The US dollar index has experienced a decline due to a downgrade in the US sovereign rating by Moody's, with all three major rating agencies rating US debt below AAA [1] - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1%, while short-term rates remain stable, indicating rising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The derivatives market is seeing a record high of bearish sentiment towards US assets [1] Trade and Capital Flows - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased activity in corporate foreign exchange transactions [1] - The merchandise trade surplus has narrowed, with a net inflow of $64.9 billion in cross-border capital, indicating resilient exports but facing uncertainties [1] - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds is improving, as evidenced by a rebound in the custody volume of RMB bonds [1] Economic Indicators - Retail sales and industrial value-added output in April showed year-on-year growth, while the May LPR cut signals support for the RMB [1] - The preliminary May PMI in the US exceeded expectations, but the downgrade by Moody's has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Currency Outlook - The dollar is expected to maintain a weak position against the RMB in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The euro may be in a favorable position due to the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets amid US tariff policies [1] - The Japanese yen has shown resilience despite weak fundamentals, influenced by the downgrade of the dollar rating [1] Strategic Considerations - The focus is on the potential for a widening interest rate differential between the US and China due to fiscal risks and policy uncertainties [1] - Attention is also directed towards the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations, which could impact the euro's position [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the reassessment of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the anticipated increase in federal debt due to large-scale tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies [1] Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1% due to rising fiscal risks [1] - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased corporate foreign exchange transactions indicating heightened trading activity [1] - The US PMI preliminary reading for May exceeded expectations, although Moody's downgrade has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Group 2: China Economic Indicators - China's cross-border capital inflow remains strong, with a stable goods trade surplus [1] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - The volume of foreign capital in Chinese bond custody has rebounded, indicating improved foreign investment sentiment [1] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for April was reported at 2.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The preliminary composite PMI for May was recorded at 49.5, with the services PMI at 48.9, indicating a contraction in the services sector [1] - The European Commission has revised down its growth forecasts for the next two years [1] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's manufacturing sector remains in contraction, with the May PMI data showing a slight recovery but still below the neutral line [1] - The services and composite PMIs in Japan have declined [1] - Japan's April exports grew by 2% year-on-year, while the CPI for April was reported at 3.6% year-on-year [1] Group 5: Currency Outlook - The US dollar is expected to maintain a weak position in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The Japanese yen shows short-term momentum [1] - The decline in US credit is unexpectedly strengthening the euro, with attention on the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations [1]

日本最高外汇事务官员三村淳：美日两国都认为汇率的突然波动是不可取的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The results of the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction have influenced market movements, with gold prices maintaining a 0.7% increase and the U.S. dollar showing a decline against the yen and Swiss franc [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold prices stabilized around $3,315, reflecting a 0.7% increase following the auction results [1] - The U.S. dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate experienced a decline of approximately 0.7%, reaching 143.57 yen, with a low of 143.29 yen recorded [1] - The U.S. dollar to Swiss franc exchange rate saw a reduced decline of 0.48%, trading at 0.8242, with a previous low of 0.8230 and a day low of 0.8210 [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to decline, currently at 145.2130, down 0.28%, influenced by a weaker dollar index due to poor economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside rising expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - A recent survey indicates that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates until September to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, with slightly over half anticipating at least a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year [1][2] - The survey, conducted from May 7 to 13 among 62 economists, reflects the Bank of Japan policymakers' view that while U.S. tariffs have disrupted markets, they have not completely derailed efforts to gradually tighten monetary policy [1] Group 2 - 95% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged at the June policy meeting, with 67% predicting the benchmark rate will remain at 0.5% until September, an increase from about 36% in the previous month [2] - The implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate rose from a low of 9.5% to 11.3%, indicating increased demand for downside protection against the dollar, particularly beyond the three-month period following the U.S.-China tariff pause [2] - Technical analysis suggests that if the USD/JPY breaks below the psychological level of 145.00, it could lead to a decline towards the 144.55 area, with further support at approximately 144.30, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level [3]