对于欧洲而言，马雷克·贝尔卡认为，欧洲面临着几方面的长期挑战。主要是由于生产力低下以及GDP 增长疲弱，这一点在欧洲显而易见。欧洲已经进入老龄社会，中国也进入老龄社会，但欧洲老龄社会进 程已持续很长一段时间，与任何其他世界的地区进行对比，欧洲增长会比较慢。眼前欧洲最大的挑战是 不平衡、不稳定。我们已进入不稳定的世界，欧洲目前在不稳定的国际经济之下会显得更加脆弱。如果 中美打"关税战"，欧洲既不是赢家也不是输家，会变成两国相交的直接战场，对欧洲来讲没有任何好 处。欧洲一直希望可以进入和平合作的时代，但现在正面临着变革。 "我们在全球范围内看到非常危险的关税游戏正在进行中。"马雷克·贝尔卡提到，"短期来看，美国关税 的错误实施带来了几方面结果。首先是其不确定性，不仅是对于全球经济，而且对于美国经济带来了直 接的不确定性。" 马雷克·贝尔卡还提到，使美元走弱是美国的单边政策。同时，作为全球储备货币，美国在某种程度 上，又不希望美元走弱。当前可以看到资本开始流出美国美元市场，即美元已经走弱了，美元作为全球 货币以及全球储备货币位置也会逐步地走弱。美国新政府做法的危机在于其国内非常深入和深刻的社会 问题。作为科技和经济 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar has declined alongside US Treasury yields due to weak economic data, reinforcing market expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The majority of fluctuations in the forex market this week were driven by the USD/KRW exchange rate, with the dollar trading at 1394.70 KRW after a significant drop over two days [1] - Market speculation suggests that President Trump may favor a weaker dollar to pressure other governments during trade negotiations, which could benefit Asian exporters [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that policymakers need to reconsider the roles of employment and inflation in the current monetary policy framework, suggesting that inflation risks may raise the threshold for rate cuts [4] - Despite expectations for three rate cuts this year, if inflation rises, the number of cuts may be reduced [4] - The euro rose by 0.1% to 1.1197 USD, while the pound stabilized at 1.3309 USD, with the dollar index down 0.1% to 100.70, but still on track for a slight weekly gain of 0.3% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar, coupled with rising market volatility, is becoming a significant concern for investors, prompting a need for increased hedging against dollar depreciation risks [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness - Investors may need to enhance their hedging strategies against the risks associated with a weakening dollar due to the high concentration of global portfolios in US companies [1] - Historically, investors were reluctant to hedge against dollar depreciation risks, as the dollar typically strengthened during periods of increased market volatility due to safe-haven inflows [1] Group 2: Market Volatility - Recent trends show that despite rising market volatility, the dollar has continued to weaken, creating an unusual negative correlation between the dollar and volatility [1] - The increase in volatility has raised the costs of hedging, complicating the investment landscape for market participants [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite pressure from Trump for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current strategy, with a forecast of three rate cuts in the next 12 months, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75% [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to slow down by 2026, with inflation expected to stabilize after a one-time spike, leading to a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's stance towards easing [1] - The attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets is diminishing, prompting a shift towards global diversification, with the euro expected to benefit from favorable European policies and Germany's growth potential starting in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate forecast has been raised from 1.0750 to 1.1500, while the dollar to yen forecast has been lowered from 150.00 to 140.00, reflecting the overall weakening of the dollar [1] - In the current uncertain market environment, a neutral stance on risk assets is maintained, with a preference for sectors with long-term structural advantages, including select European and emerging market bonds, as well as mispriced industrial stocks [1] - Emerging market banking sectors are noted for their strong risk resilience, with local economic prospects supporting loan quality and liquidity despite potential profitability impacts from interest rate cuts [1] Group 3 - Gold continues to rise as a safe-haven asset due to deteriorating economic relations and increasing geopolitical risks, with the potential for further monetary easing in China if U.S.-China relations do not improve [2] - The increase in global M2 money supply growth surpassing nominal GDP growth is identified as a key driver for the sustained rise in gold prices [2]

高盛上调美国通胀预期 金十数据5月8日讯，高盛经济学家预计美国核心PCE通胀到2025年底增长3.8%（此前预测为3.5%）， 2026年底2.7%（此前预测2.3%）。与这些预测相比，最新公布的核心PCE数据仅为2.6%。高盛表示， 美元因关税消息而走弱，这种走弱放大了关税对价格的直接影响，而非抵消这种影响。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade and financial markets, leading to a significant appreciation of Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar and a shift in investment strategies away from dollar assets [1][3]. - Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar and New Taiwan dollar, have seen substantial gains, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening multiple times to maintain its currency peg, and the New Taiwan dollar experiencing a notable rise of over 10% against the dollar in just two trading days [2][3]. - There is a growing trend of foreign investors reducing their exposure to U.S. assets, with a reported decline of over 10% in the U.S. dollar index this year, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the dollar [3][4]. Group 2 - The article discusses the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, as U.S. tariff policies create uncertainty and diminish the dollar's safe-haven status, prompting capital outflows from the dollar [4]. - Notable investors, including Warren Buffett, have expressed concerns about the future value of the dollar, warning of potential risks associated with U.S. fiscal policies that could lead to a depreciation of currency assets [4].

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 李明会 北京报道 "金价又涨了，五一期间入手'三金'多好！"五一假期的节后第一天，"金价再爆发"又上热搜，正在备婚的钱女士对 《华夏时报》记者直言后悔到拍大腿，"还以为五一过后金价能便宜些，没想到又涨了。" 今年以来，金价高位狂飙，牵动多方神经。像钱女士一样，不少备婚新人都在纠结要不要在此时购买"三金"或"五 金"，生怕买在高位当了"冤大头"。不过，一位新人劝告记者，"要买赶紧买，不然可能越来越贵，我就是从（克 价）七百多拖到一千才买的。" 5月6日，国际金价延续此前一日上涨态势，盘中一度触及3386美元/盎司，截至记者发稿前，现货黄金站上3379美 元/盎司，日内涨1.36%，COMEX黄金期货亦持续上涨，一度突破3390美元/盎司，日内涨幅逼近2%。 受此影响，5月6日，国内多家品牌金店足金饰品价格再度涨破1000元/克，有品牌金饰单克金价甚至一夜反弹超30 元。 金价再爆发 此前4月22日，现货黄金一度涨超3500美元/盎司，刷新历史新高。此后现货黄金连续多日回调，但近日再度卷土 重来。 不过，5月5日，现货黄金大幅拉升，一举突破3300美元/ ...

新华财经北京5月6日电在周一（5月5日）大幅拉涨约100美元之后，周二（5月6日）国际金价继续惯性 冲高。截至发稿时，伦敦现货黄金一度突破3380美元／盎司关口，纽约COMEX黄金期货最活跃合约期 价更是一度摸高至3395美元／盎司。以下是部分机构观点： 铜冠金源期货表示，目前来看，黄金依然受到避险需求增强的支撑。密切关注本周即将公布的美联储货 币政策决议。特朗普重申不会提前解除鲍威尔的主席职务，并再次呼吁美联储应降息以刺激经济增长。 尽管市场普遍预期美联储在本次会议上将维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，但关税摩擦给美国经济前 景带来的不确定性加大，美联储的未来利率路径面临重新评估的压力。密切关注美联储经济展望与美联 储主席鲍威尔的讲话内容，以判断未来货币政策方向。 金瑞期货表示，当前市场风险偏好恢复，但是关税对经济的潜在负面影响并未解除，市场对关税缓解的 乐观预期停留在情绪层面，黄金的避险多头逻辑依然存在，叠加各国央行存在持续买入需求，因而底部 支撑较强。若后续美国经济出现实质性走弱信号，或关税政策进一步恶化，甚至关于关税的谈判细节不 及预期，均可能引发避险情绪反复，为贵金属价格提供新的上行动力。综 ...

Core Viewpoint - Buffett expressed concerns about U.S. fiscal issues, noting that they are not unique to the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Buffett stated that Berkshire Hathaway will not take actions to improve quarterly or annual financial reports at the expense of holding worthless currency assets [1] - He emphasized the low cost of borrowing in yen, indicating a different situation in Japan compared to the U.S. [1]

Core Insights - The domestic gold market in China has shown significant growth in transaction volume and value in Q1 2025, driven by various factors across production, consumption, market activity, and policy changes Production Insights - Gold production in China has steadily increased, with companies optimizing resource utilization and accelerating overseas expansion. Major gold mining projects are advancing, and large gold groups are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions. In Q1 2025, overseas gold production reached 18.485 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14% [1] Consumption Insights - There is a structural divergence in gold consumption, with investment demand surging while jewelry consumption remains weak due to high gold prices. Traditional gold and lightweight gold jewelry are in high demand, particularly among younger consumers. Investment in gold bars and coins has significantly increased due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic instability [2] Market Activity Insights - The gold market in China has experienced heightened trading activity, with substantial increases in both transaction volume and value. In Q1 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 16,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, and a transaction value of 10.7 trillion yuan, up 42.85%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a trading volume of 55,400 tons, a 91.17% increase, and a transaction value of 30.52 trillion yuan, up 143.69%. Additionally, domestic gold ETF holdings grew by 23.47 tons, a staggering year-on-year increase of 327.73% [3] Policy Insights - The Chinese government has reinforced the asset allocation properties of gold, with recent policies allowing insurance funds to invest in gold. This has led to the first insurance fund gold investment transaction under the new framework, injecting new vitality into the gold market [4] Investment Logic Insights - The surge in gold ETF holdings is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets, expectations of loose monetary policy, rising inflation expectations, a weakening dollar, and heightened investment interest. Factors such as international trade tensions and geopolitical risks have amplified the need for safe-haven investments [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]