经合组织发布的报告预计，今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2%和2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。报告 指出，三方面因素共同支撑全球需求。一是扩张性宏观政策，二是市场对新技术的积极预期，三是人工 智能带动贸易和投资增长。但报告同时发出警告，认为全球经济风险正在累积。具体包括：贸易保护主 义升级可能严重损害全球供应链和产出，人工智能领域资产高估（值）可能突然回调，各国财政脆弱性 可能阻碍经济增长。 报告还提及美国经济面临的风险，如需求承压、通胀顽固、就业市场疲软及巨额赤字。数据显示， 美国涉及加征关税的进口商品总值较非征税进口商品明显下降，说明关税正抑制美国国内需求，预计贸 易量将继续承压。由于就业市场降温、关税抬高消费价格，美国家庭消费增长将继续放缓，通胀可能更 加持久，从而减少降息空间。报告预测，美国经济增速将由2024年的2.8%降至今年的2.0%，明年进一 步放缓至1.7%。 央视网消息：经济合作与发展组织2日发布最新经济展望报告。报告指出，今年全球经济韧性超出 预期，但仍面临贸易壁垒、人工智能泡沫和财政脆弱性等风险。 报告还认为，美国关税对全球经济的影响正逐步显现，并传导至支出、企业成本以及消费价格。经 合组 ...

当前全球贸易身处保护主义的漩涡，如何捍卫多边主义、与不确定性共存，成为论坛的一大讨论方向。 第73届联合国大会主席、厄瓜多尔前外长玛丽亚.费尔南达.埃斯皮诺萨(María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés) 在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时，强调了开展国际贸易的重要性，"一些国家声称国家利益至上，但 现实表明，国家之间的相互依存程度日益加深。每个国家都需要其他国家来满足自身的需求。这需要合 作，需要互动。" 而在贸易保护主义抬头的背景下，埃斯皮诺萨仍坚信世界贸易组织、世界银行等多边机构对世界经济运 行的必要性，"但是我们需要对国际金融体系进行深刻改革，让发展中国家在全球经济格局的塑造中拥 有更大的发言权和影响力。" 埃斯皮诺萨于2018年至2019年间担任联合国大会主席，是历史上第四位女性联大主席，也是第一位来自 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的联大主席。埃斯皮诺萨曾两度担任厄瓜多尔外交部长，并出任国防部长。2008 年，她成为首位担任厄瓜多尔常驻联合国纽约总部代表的女性。 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者赖镇桃广州报道 12月1日至3日，由澳中友好交流协会、中国人民对外友好协会、广东省人民政府和世界领袖联 ...

Group 1 - The OECD's latest economic outlook report forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, consistent with previous predictions made in September 2023 [1] - The report highlights that while global economic resilience has exceeded expectations this year, risks such as trade barriers, AI bubble, and fiscal vulnerabilities remain [1] - The report anticipates that U.S. economic growth will decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, further slowing to 1.7% in 2026, influenced by tariffs, slowing private consumption, and federal government shutdowns [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the expansionary macroeconomic policies, positive market expectations for new technologies, and growth in trade and investment driven by AI are supporting global demand [1] - It warns that potential risks to the global economy are accumulating, including the escalation of trade protectionism, overvaluation of assets based on optimistic AI development expectations, and fiscal vulnerabilities hindering economic growth [1] - The report emphasizes that the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global economy is becoming more evident, affecting spending choices, corporate costs, and consumer prices, with these effects being particularly pronounced in the U.S. [1] Group 3 - The report identifies risks facing the U.S. economy, such as demand pressure, persistent inflation, a weak labor market, and significant deficits [2] - It shows that the total value of imported goods subject to tariffs has significantly decreased compared to non-tariffed imports, indicating that tariffs are suppressing overall U.S. demand, with trade volumes expected to remain under pressure [2] - The report stresses the need for countries to work towards easing trade tensions, reducing policy uncertainty, curbing inflation, addressing financial risks, and advancing reforms to enhance productivity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The new wave of compliance challenges in cross-border e-commerce is driven by geopolitical tensions, with significant regulatory actions from the US and EU targeting Chinese products, marking the end of an era characterized by rapid growth based on price advantages and platform benefits [1] Group 1: Regulatory Environment - The US Congress has issued a "final ultimatum" to Amazon, requiring full disclosure of product origin information by November 28, including the percentage of US-made components and seller entity attributes [2] - The EU has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese robotic lawnmowers, citing systemic cost and price distortions in production, with a one-year investigation period [3] - Germany has announced a 23% VAT on all e-commerce packages from China, effective November 24, eliminating previous tax exemptions, with nearly 70% of international small packages entering Europe originating from China [3] Group 2: Underlying Causes - The tightening of regulations is influenced by rising trade protectionism, with countries focusing on domestic manufacturing and supply chain security post-pandemic [5] - The competition for supply chain dominance is intensifying, as Chinese cross-border e-commerce shifts from low-cost distribution to brand and localization strategies [5] - Data security concerns are emerging as new trade barriers, with US lawmakers emphasizing the need to identify whether sellers are US entities, reflecting deeper worries about data flow [5] Group 3: Impact on Chinese Sellers - The introduction of a 23% VAT in Germany significantly erodes profit margins for low-margin sellers, with an example showing a nearly 5 Euro tax increase on a 20 Euro product [7] - The potential for high anti-dumping duties from the EU could undermine the competitiveness of Chinese high-tech products, particularly robotic lawnmowers, which saw an 80.6% increase in exports to the EU in the first nine months of the year [7] - Compliance complexity is increasing, as Amazon's origin labeling requirements necessitate sellers to overhaul their supply chain data management systems, posing significant challenges for small and medium-sized sellers [7] Group 4: Strategic Solutions - A fundamental strategic shift is required for Chinese cross-border e-commerce, focusing on building brand value rather than competing solely on price [10] - Developing compliance capabilities should be viewed as a core competitive advantage, with the establishment of specialized compliance teams to monitor legal changes in target markets [10] - Diversifying market presence is crucial to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on a single market, with opportunities in emerging markets and localized operations through overseas warehouses [10] - Embracing technological changes to reshape marketing strategies is essential, as AI-driven tools like Amazon's shopping assistant can significantly enhance conversion rates [10] - Building supply chain resilience through diversified production locations and partnerships with local firms can help balance cost and compliance needs [10] Group 5: Industry Evolution - The cross-border e-commerce sector is transitioning from a focus on quick profits to a more mature, detail-oriented approach, with compliance becoming a competitive edge [11] - Sellers who adapt quickly to the new regulatory environment may find opportunities for transformation, positioning themselves as leaders by prioritizing compliance and brand development [11]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD's latest economic outlook report forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% for this year and 2.9% for next year, consistent with predictions made in September [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - Expansionary macroeconomic policies, positive market expectations for new technologies, and growth in trade and investment driven by artificial intelligence are supporting global demand [1] Group 2: Potential Risks - The report warns of accumulating potential risks to the global economy, including the escalation of trade protectionism that could severely damage global supply chains and output [1] - Overvaluation of assets based on optimistic expectations surrounding artificial intelligence development may lead to sudden corrections [1] - Fiscal vulnerabilities in various countries could hinder economic growth [1]

报告认为，美国关税对全球经济的影响正在进一步显现，并传导至支出选择、企业成本以及消费价格。 美国经济面临的这些影响尤为明显。 报告提及美国经济面临的风险，如需求承压、通胀顽固、就业市场疲软及巨额赤字。报告显示，美国涉 及加征关税的进口商品总值较非征税进口商品明显下降，说明关税正抑制美国整体需求，预计贸易量将 继续承压。考虑到就业市场降温及关税抬高消费价格，预计美国家庭消费增长将继续放缓，通胀可能更 加持久，从而减少降息空间。 经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)2日发布最新经济展望报告，预计今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2%和 2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。报告指出，今年全球经济韧性超出预期，但仍面临贸易壁垒、人工智能泡 沫和财政脆弱性等风险。 报告还认为，美国当前财政政策路径不可持续，减少巨额赤字是当务之急。此外，美国标普500股票指 数周期调整市盈率接近历史高位，股市大幅调整风险较高。 报告预计，受到加征关税、私人消费放缓及联邦政府"停摆"影响，美国经济增速将由2024年的2.8%降至 2025年的2.0%，并在2026年进一步放缓至1.7%；2025年和2026年，欧元区经济预计将增长1.3%和 1.2%。 ...

新华社巴黎12月2日电（记者崔可欣）经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）2日发布最新经济展望报 告，预计今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2%和2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。报告指出，今年全球经济韧 性超出预期，但仍面临贸易壁垒、人工智能泡沫和财政脆弱性等风险。 报告预计，受到加征关税、私人消费放缓及联邦政府"停摆"影响，美国经济增速将由2024年的2.8% 降至2025年的2.0%，并在2026年进一步放缓至1.7%；2025年和2026年，欧元区经济预计将增长1.3%和 1.2%。 报告认为，扩张性的宏观政策导向、市场对新技术的积极预期，以及人工智能相关领域带动的贸易 和投资增长，共同支撑了全球需求。报告同时警告，全球经济的潜在风险正在累积：贸易保护主义升级 可能严重损害全球供应链和产出，基于人工智能发展乐观预期的资产高估值可能突然回调，各国财政脆 弱性可能阻碍经济增长。 报告认为，美国关税对全球经济的影响正在进一步显现，并传导至支出选择、企业成本以及消费价 格。美国经济面临的这些影响尤为明显。 报告还认为，美国当前财政政策路径不可持续，减少巨额赤字是当务之急。此外，美国标普500股 票指数周期调整市盈率接近历史高 ...

经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）2日发布最新经济展望报告，预计今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2% 和2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。 （文章来源：新华网） 报告同时警告，全球经济的潜在风险正在累积：贸易保护主义升级可能严重损害全球供应链和产出，基 于人工智能发展乐观预期的资产高估值可能突然回调，各国财政脆弱性可能阻碍经济增长。 报告认为，扩张性的宏观政策导向、市场对新技术的积极预期，以及人工智能相关领域带动的贸易和投 资增长，共同支撑了全球需求。 ...

2025年2月，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，要求国务卿鲁比奥在180天内对美国向所有国际组织提供的资金支持进行审查。这一命令主要针对世界贸易组织 （WTO），因为特朗普认为该组织的规则对美国的贸易政策不利。3月4日，在日内瓦举行的WTO预算会议上，美国代表明确表示，直到审查结束，美国将 暂停支付2024和2025年度的会费。WTO的年度预算大约为2.3亿瑞士法郎，而美国的贡献占11%，约为2630万美元。如果美国停止支付这笔费用，WTO的日 常运作将面临困境，其他成员国开始抱怨资金缺口可能会影响到贸易谈判的进展。 美国这样的做法并非首次。特朗普在第一任期内从2017年开始，拒绝任命WTO上诉机构的新法官，导致到2019年底，该机构只剩下一个法官，完全陷入瘫 痪。数百起贸易纠纷因此无法得到处理，包括多个国家对美国关税政策的投诉。如今，特朗普重新掌权，他继续施压，要求WTO改革其争端解决机制和会 费结构。民主党议员批评称，这种做法可能会削弱美国的国际影响力，其他国家，特别是中国和俄罗斯，可能会趁机占便宜。 WTO总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊维拉与美国贸易代表办公室多次沟通，但始终未能取得实质性进展。美国明确表示，只有在 ...

2025年11月26日，在布鲁塞尔欧盟总部举行的闭门会议刚刚结束，一则突如其来的消息立即在全球范围内引发热议。欧盟27国联合向美国递交了一份备忘 录，表示愿意在经贸领域全面配合美方，甚至不惜主动切断与中国的相关合作，以此换取美国在钢铝关税问题上的让步。然而，这份充满"示好"意味的声明 还未完全冷却，特朗普团队却突然向中国释放友好信号，宣布重启部分中美贸易合作谈判，并准备简化中国商品进入美国的流程。这样的突然反转，让欧盟 27国瞬间陷入尴尬，被全球视作"用力过猛却被晾在一边"的典型例子。 事情之所以会发展成这样，源头在于美国不断加码的钢铝关税压力。美国方面近期 透露，将进一步扩大钢铝关税的征收范围，这无疑直接击中了欧洲制造业的要害。因为钢铁和铝材是欧洲汽车、机械制造、航空航天等主要产业最关键的基 础材料，美国的关税政策已经对欧洲相关企业造成巨大冲击。为了促使美方做出让步，欧盟27国可谓是竭尽全力。自今年年初以来，欧盟对美国的投资增长 了超过1500亿欧元，而美国在欧洲液化天然气进口市场中的份额也从45%飙升到60%。即便如此，欧盟仍担心不够，干脆把"中国牌"作为最终筹码，在谈判 中不断强调所谓"共同竞争对手"， ...