Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Caixin China Services PMI rose to 51.1, and Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 in May. Futures Prices: On June 5, equity index futures rose, while CGB futures had mixed performance. Most commodities declined, with energy & chemical futures leading the declines. Commentary: Coking Coal, Aluminum, Aluminium Oxide 中国期货每日简报 China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F30231 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the deteriorating relationship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, highlighting Musk's recent softening stance after a public dispute [1][3][4] - Musk's initial support for Trump has shifted dramatically within a year, indicating underlying tensions that may have been present from the beginning of their relationship [5][18] - The conflict escalated due to Trump's tariff policies and a significant tax and spending bill known as the "Big and Beautiful" act, which Musk publicly criticized [7][9][12] Group 2 - Musk's criticism of Trump's economic policies reflects a broader divide between the "tech right" and the MAGA movement, particularly regarding regulatory approaches and trade policies [21][23] - The article suggests that the relationship between Musk and Trump serves as a barometer for the power dynamics between traditional political figures and emerging tech elites in the U.S. [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the threat of increased tariffs by the U.S. on the EU is creating unprecedented uncertainty for industrial companies, particularly affecting order deliveries and investment decisions [1][3][4] - The machinery and industrial equipment sector accounts for approximately 20% of Italy's total exports to the U.S., making it the highest contributing industry [4] - The company, Sacmi Group, emphasizes that relocating production to the U.S. is impractical due to high investment costs and challenges related to labor costs and supply chain maturity [4][6] Group 2 - The unilateral trade protectionist policies of the U.S., especially the imposition of high tariffs, are disrupting global supply chains and forcing companies to adjust their sales strategies [7][9] - As a response to U.S. tariffs, the company has had to increase product prices for American customers, which ultimately harms those customers [7][9] - The complexity of the manufacturing process for highly customized products makes it unfeasible to produce entirely within one country to avoid tariffs [6]

智通财经APP获悉，在通胀率八个月来首次跌破2%关口，且美国关税政策持续冲击经济之际，欧洲央 行于当地时间6月5日宣布下调存款利率25个基点至2%，符合市场普遍预期。这是该行自2024年7月以来 第八次启动降息，进一步释放宽松货币政策信号。 欧洲央行在声明中指出："当前通胀率已接近管理委员会设定的2%中期目标水平。"尽管5月通胀率降至 1.9%的低位，但政策制定者仍保持谨慎态度。声明特别提及，特朗普政府实施的贸易保护主义政策正 对欧洲企业投资和出口造成短期压力，尽管各国政府增加的国防及基建投资或将在中长期为经济增长提 供支撑。 市场反应印证了政策调整的影响：德国十年期国债收益率应声下跌约5个基点至2.48%，显示避险情绪 升温;欧元兑美元汇率在短暂冲高后回落至1.1418，基本持平于降息前水平。货币市场小幅增加对今年 进一步降息幅度的押注，预计总计降息 33 个基点，相当于再次下调 25 个基点且有三分之一概率再下 调。 经济数据显示，欧元区经济放缓趋势愈发明显。本周数据显示 5 月份通胀率降至 1.9%，为 8 个月来首 次跌破 2%，也是 2021 年以来第二次，经济放缓主因服务业价格涨幅放缓，而此前这一 ...

Core Insights - Costco is adjusting its supply chain strategy by increasing local sourcing of its Kirkland private label products to mitigate the impact of high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][2] - The company's net sales reached $62 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth, despite facing operational pressures from recent tariff policies [2] Group 1: Supply Chain Adjustments - Costco is shifting the procurement of many products from high-tariff countries to local or regional markets to reduce costs and alleviate tariff impacts [2] - The company has proactively stocked seasonal items in advance and increased local production to ensure sufficient inventory while minimizing tariff-related pressures [4] Group 2: Industry Response - Canadian retailers, including Metro and Loblaw, are also prioritizing local sourcing to navigate the uncertainties brought by trade tensions and to support local suppliers [5] - Walmart Canada has not publicly commented on whether it is adopting similar strategies in response to tariff impacts [5]

实际上，欧盟在贸易政策上的摇摆不定，深受意识形态的影响。与中国的合作虽然能够带来可观的经济利益，但由于意识形态的分歧，欧盟更倾向于 与美国结盟。这似乎形成了一种矛盾的局面——明知道中国是一个可靠的经济伙伴，却因意识形态无法彻底放下成见。毕竟，中国从未对欧盟采取类 似美国那样的经济胁迫策略。 然而，市场并不只是意识形态的战场，经济利益才是真正的核心。随着美国的关税政策持续收紧，欧盟面对的不只是来自美国的压力，同时也可能会 面临与中国的市场竞争加剧。以中国近年来对全球医疗器械市场的强势扩张为例，欧盟若继续在制裁与经济合作间摇摆，将可能错失发展机遇。 在其他国家方面，情况也相似。比如，日本在与美国的贸易谈判中表现出坚定立场，要求完全取消对美进口商品的关税，其政府的态度非常明确：绝 不妥协。这使得美国在与这些国家的谈判中遭遇空前挑战。实际上，自特朗普发起关税战以来，许多国家的反击措施开始逐渐显露出成效，特别是中 国在这场博弈中所展现出的抗压能力，不仅鼓舞了各国，也让特朗普政府面临前所未有的压力。 自4月2日起宣布的"对等关税"政策，表面上是为了在贸易中寻求公平，但实际上却导致了各国的抵抗和反制。尤其是日本与欧盟等国， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term and continuous purchasing behavior of global central banks towards gold reflects a restructuring of the global monetary system due to changes in trust foundations [2] - The recent performance of the gold ETF fund shows a net inflow of funds totaling 1.25 billion yuan over the past four days, indicating strong investor interest [2] - The gold ETF fund has achieved a 95.39% increase in net value over the past five years, ranking it among the top funds in its category [3] Group 2 - The gold ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, which are competitive within the industry [3] - The fund's performance metrics include a maximum monthly return of 10.62% and a historical holding period profitability probability of 100% over three years [3] - Leverage funds are actively investing in the gold ETF, with the latest margin buying amounting to 27.57 million yuan and a margin balance of 3.736 billion yuan [2]

新华财经北京6月5日电美国白宫宣布从4日起将进口自除英国外所有贸易伙伴的钢铝产品关税从目前的 25%上调至50%。 根据美国国际贸易委员会数据，美国在2024年进口价值1473亿美元的钢铝产品。美国进口钢铁的主要来 源地包括加拿大、墨西哥、巴西等，进口铝的主要来源地是加拿大等。 多国行业人士和学者认为，此举将推高美国从汽车到罐装食品等一系列商品价格，对美国企业和消费者 造成冲击，并加剧全球经贸环境不确定性，为世界经济增长前景蒙上阴影。 加拿大："非法且不合理" 加拿大总理办公室3日晚发表声明说，美方加倍征收钢铝关税"非法且不合理"。加拿大新政府正与美方 进行谈判，争取取消这些关税和其他关税。 加拿大钢铝业界强烈反对美方行为。加拿大钢铁生产商协会表示，提高关税将"对整个供应链造成大规 模破坏和负面影响"。 加拿大劳工大会主席贝娅·布鲁斯克表示，美国政府的这一计划是对加拿大工人的又一次直接攻击，其 鲁莽的举动将对加拿大经济造成冲击。布鲁斯克说："特朗普这一决定将使我们完全远离美国市场，给 加拿大的钢铁和铝产业带来毁灭性危机，并威胁到成千上万加拿大工人的工作。"布鲁斯克呼吁加拿大 政府立即采取行动保护工人，包括实施 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% to protect domestic industries and address national security threats, effective from June 4 [1][3][4] - Canada and Mexico are expected to be the most affected by the tariff increase, with Canada being the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the U.S. [5][6] - The OECD has downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2023 to 1.6% due to the impact of the tariffs and retaliatory measures from trade partners [1][4] Group 2 - The U.S. steel import volume decreased by 17% from March to April 2023, and further declines are anticipated following the new tariffs [4] - The Canadian government has expressed strong opposition to the tariffs, labeling them as illegal and unfair, and plans to support affected workers and businesses [5][6] - The broader impact of the tariffs is expected to increase production costs for U.S. manufacturers that rely on steel and aluminum, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers [7]

首先，贸易保护主义和政策不确定性加剧，美国自2025年初大幅提高对中国产品的关税，平均有效关税 从2024年的2%升至15.4%，为1938年以来最高水平。据经合组织测算，此次美国加征关税及各国反制措 施涉及商品贸易额占全球GDP约2%，超过2018年美对中方首次贸易战时期的影响范围。报告预测，增 长放缓较为显著的包括美国、加拿大和墨西哥等经济体。2025年和2026年，美国经济预计将增长1.6% 和1.5%，较今年3月份预测值分别下调0.6个和0.1个百分点；欧元区经济预计将增长1.0%和1.2%，与3月 份预测值相同。根据"政策不确定性指数"，近期不确定性急剧上升，尤其是在未来贸易政策走向方面， 企业和消费者信心因此下降。金融环境收紧与市场波动持续造成影响，虽然金融市场已部分稳定，但整 体金融条件比2024年底更为紧张，且金融系统对冲击更为敏感，可能触发连锁反应，如非银金融机构被 迫出售资产。另外，公司债务成本特别是低评级债券的利差仍然高企，表明市场对风险资产保持高度警 惕。 其次，投资和消费动力不足弱化复苏动能。商业投资疲弱，由于不确定性上升、融资成本提高以及结构 性问题，如市场集中度上升，企业投资意愿 ...