Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周二铁矿夜盘收涨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、力拓（Rio Tinto）发布四季度产销报告：四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石产量为 8970 | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 偏多 | 万吨，环比增加 6.66%，同比增加 3.70%。四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石发运量为 9130 | | | | | 万吨，环比增加 8.30%，同比增加 6.53%。 | | | | | 3、 1 月 12 日-1 月 18 日，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二螺纹热卷夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、财政部有关负责人介绍，2026 年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要 | | | | | 水平，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black (coking coal and coke) sector is "oscillating weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The double - coking (coking coal and coke) market is expected to be in a short - term weak trend. The market accelerated its decline yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1124.0, a 4.3% decline compared to the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1673.5, a 2.76% decline compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, the main coking coal contract closed at 1113.0, a 0.98% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the main coke contract closed at 1671.0, a 0.15% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and take promoting price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy, and regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued a notice on measures to support urban renewal, proposing a transitional policy for using existing land and real estate resources to develop supported industries without changing the land - use subject and planning conditions within a certain period [1] - As of the time of the report, the explosion accident at Baotou Steel's plate factory in Inner Mongolia has caused 9 deaths, and the status of 1 missing person is being further confirmed [1] - On January 20, the online auction price of coking coal in the Changzhi Qinyuan market increased. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1598 yuan/ton, with a transaction volume of 30,000 tons, a 19 - yuan increase compared to January 13 [1] Market Logic - The double - coking market accelerated its decline yesterday. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] Trading Strategy - The double - coking market accelerated its decline before the close of the day session yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. Coking coal is expected to show a short - term weak trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China aims to continuously promote a reasonable recovery of prices through a combination of policies, emphasizing the importance of price stability for both economic operation and residents' livelihoods [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Economic Policy - The NDRC plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, making the promotion of reasonable price recovery a key consideration in monetary policy [1]. - There is an observed upward trend in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating signs of economic recovery [1]. Structural Policy - The NDRC will implement special actions to boost consumption and develop plans to increase income for urban and rural residents [2]. - Policies will be optimized to promote large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of old consumer goods, alongside advancing major national strategies and key area safety capabilities [2]. - Efforts will be made to address "involution" competition and establish a unified national market construction regulation to enhance market efficiency [2]. Reform Policy - The NDRC aims to further clarify price relationships to promote efficient resource allocation and ensure stable supply [2]. - Continuous efforts will be made to stabilize prices and supply of essential goods, ensuring sufficient quantity and stable prices to support basic livelihoods [2].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to promote price recovery and stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies - The NDRC plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on price recovery as a key consideration [1]. - A new strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 will be developed, aiming to strengthen the domestic circulation and adapt to the upgrading of demand structure [2]. - The NDRC is studying the establishment of a national-level merger fund to enhance government investment and fund layout planning [3]. Group 2: Market Regulation - The NDRC will further regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and strengthen price supervision in key industries to create a healthy market order [4]. - There will be a focus on promoting a transition from "price competition" to "value competition" and improving market access and fair competition mechanisms [5]. Group 3: Economic Development Goals - By 2025, the NDRC aims to complete major economic and social development goals, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and achieving breakthroughs in new productivity development [6]. - The urbanization rate is expected to reach 67.89% by the end of the year, an increase of 0.89 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Group 4: Employment and Social Welfare - The NDRC is committed to enhancing social welfare and employment, with an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.2% for the year [7]. - Measures will be taken to optimize holiday arrangements and implement childcare subsidies to improve the quality of life for citizens [7]. Group 5: Technological and Industrial Development - The NDRC is planning to advance a series of significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [8][9]. - By 2025, the digital economy's added value is expected to reach 49 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 35% of GDP [9]. Group 6: Consumer and Investment Policies - The NDRC is developing actions to stabilize jobs and expand capacity, aiming to enhance residents' consumption capabilities [10]. - A comprehensive approach will be taken to address supply-demand imbalances and promote domestic circulation [11]. Group 7: Investment and Project Management - In 2025, approximately 8,400 projects will be supported by long-term special government bonds, driving total investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [12]. - The NDRC will lower investment thresholds for project applications and increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises [13][16]. Group 8: Environmental and Energy Policies - The NDRC aims to accelerate energy transition and increase the share of non-fossil energy consumption, promoting clean energy generation to meet new electricity demand [17]. - Efforts will be made to develop green and low-carbon industries while promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations in key sectors [18]. Group 9: Market Construction and Regulation - The NDRC is working on establishing regulations for a unified national market and will address issues that hinder market construction [19][20]. - Measures will be taken to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumer sector and foster new growth points in consumption [21]. Group 10: Private Investment and Participation - The NDRC will implement measures to promote private investment and improve mechanisms for private enterprises' participation in major projects [22].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to promote price recovery, highlighting the importance of integrating existing and new policies to foster economic growth and price recovery [1] Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have both shown signs of recovery [1] - Future policies will focus on implementing more aggressive fiscal measures and maintaining a moderately loose monetary stance [1] - The integration of stock and incremental policies is crucial for enhancing efficiency and promoting a positive interaction between economic growth and price recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to promote price recovery, highlighting the importance of integrating stock and incremental policies to foster a positive interaction between economic growth and price recovery [1] Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have both shown signs of recovery [1] - Future policies will focus on implementing more aggressive fiscal measures and maintaining a moderately loose monetary stance [1] - The promotion of price recovery will be a key consideration in monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices as a key objective of macroeconomic regulation, with a focus on implementing policies that support economic growth and price recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to facilitate price recovery [1] - Structural adjustments will be made to address "involution" competition and establish a unified national market construction regulation [1] - The government plans to enhance the market mechanism for survival of the fittest, ensuring efficient resource allocation and stable supply [1] Group 2: Future Directions - The government will focus on dual supply and demand efforts to create a positive interaction between economic growth and price recovery [1] - There will be a concerted effort to streamline the exit of inefficient production capacities and improve price relationships [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of treasury bond futures fluctuated, with the T2603 contract down 0.02% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term treasury bond yields at home and abroad also showed mixed trends. The price of treasury bond futures stabilized due to factors such as the central bank's implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the cooling of the equity market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 102.400, 102.428, 105.785, 105.815, 108.040, 107.980, 110.92, and 111.03 respectively. The price changes were 0.004, - 0.002, - 0.020, - 0.025, - 0.025, - 0.030, - 0.240, and - 0.260 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.02%, - 0.02%, - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.22%, and - 0.23%. The open interest was 69553, 7201, 141773, 21429, 234657, 20086, 141983, and 33744 respectively, with changes of - 600, 241, 1075, 111, - 2327, 768, 2030, and 991 respectively. The trading volumes were 23651, 730, 43774, 3593, 52248, 4918, 78148, and 9319 respectively [2]. - **IRR and Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 were 1.3180, 1.4670, 1.3752, 1.5288, 1.5790, 1.5810, 1.39, and 1.54 respectively. The changes were - 0.7bp, - 0.3bp, 0.18bp, 1.51bp, 24.8bp, 4.4bp, - 1bp, and 1bp respectively [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y treasury bonds were 1.29%, 1.29%, 1.40%, 1.61%, 1.72%, 1.84%, 2.34%, and 2.38% respectively. The changes were - 0.55bp, 3.05bp, - 0.01bp, 0.29bp, 0.34bp, - 0.23bp, 0bp, and 7.2bp respectively. The 10 - 2Y, 10 - 5Y, 5 - 2Y, and 30 - 10Y yield spreads were 43.53bp, 31.72bp, 11.81bp, and 53.24bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of US 2Y, US 5Y, US 10Y, US 30Y, German 2Y, German 10Y, Japanese 2Y, and Japanese 10Y treasury bonds were 3.59%, 3.82%, 4.24%, 4.83%, 2.080%, 2.900%, 1.230%, and 2.266% respectively. The changes were 3.0bp, 5.0bp, 7.0bp, 4.0bp, - 2.0bp, 1.0bp, 2.5bp, and 8.4bp respectively [2]. 3.4 Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 19, the central bank conducted 1583 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 861 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 722 billion yuan [3]. - **Economic Data**: In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan. The added value of industries above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4% and accounted for 57.7% of GDP, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment decreasing by 17.2% [3]. - **Housing Price Data**: In December 2025, in the secondary housing market, the prices of 70 large and medium - sized cities all declined month - on - month, with the decline in first - tier cities narrowing. In the new housing market, the decline in first - tier cities also narrowed, and Shanghai was the only first - tier city with both month - on - month and year - on - year price increases [3]. - **Policy Direction**: The central bank stated that in 2026, it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, and there was still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [3]. - **International Economic Outlook**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting highlighted the importance of high-quality development in China's economy, emphasizing the need for innovative strategies and policies to sustain growth amidst external pressures [17][19]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Projections - China's GDP reached 140,187.9 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.0% increase from the previous year [17]. - The economy has shown resilience and vitality, with significant growth milestones achieved during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, crossing the thresholds of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, 130 trillion, and 140 trillion yuan [17]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The government aims to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on a combination of policy measures to enhance quality and effectiveness [20]. - There is a strong emphasis on innovation-driven growth and deepening reform and opening-up, with a strategic focus on expanding domestic demand to boost internal growth dynamics [21]. Group 3: Social Development and Welfare - The meeting underscored the necessity of integrating social welfare improvements with economic growth, aiming to enhance consumer spending and invest in both material and human resources [21].