Fixed Income - The central economic work conference indicates a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting that the current environment remains conducive to rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [2][10] - The net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 is expected to slightly increase to around 14.5 trillion yuan, maintaining a stable issuance without significantly increasing supply pressure [10][12] - Social financing growth is projected to decline to approximately 7.3% in 2026, with a total increment of around 34 trillion yuan [10][12] - The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected, with a potential policy interest rate cut of about 20 basis points anticipated [12][18] Pharmaceutical Industry - The collagen market shows significant potential, with animal-derived products having distinct advantages; Baijin Medical has three types of animal collagen products, with the first type recently approved [4][23] - The domestic market for animal-derived collagen in functional skincare and medical dressings is projected to reach 243 billion yuan by 2027 [23] - Baijin Medical is expected to submit 12 product registrations this year, with ongoing product launches anticipated, driving long-term growth [4][23] New Consumption - The CPI in November increased by 0.7%, primarily driven by rising food prices, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [28][29] - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, reported a revenue of 1.052 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 98.3% [29][30] - The company has a strong offline presence with 554 stores, over 95% of which are located in shopping malls, positioning it as a leader among domestic and international high-end skincare brands [29][30] Metal New Materials - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points has led to an increase in copper prices, with expectations of a supply-demand shift towards a shortage in the future [32][33] - The lithium market is experiencing strong demand, with lithium prices entering an upward cycle due to ongoing inventory depletion [35] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply situation, with recent changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo impacting the market [36] North Exchange - The recent adjustments to the North Exchange 50 and specialized indices are expected to enhance the quality and scale of listed companies, with a focus on performance and strong growth potential [39][40] - The market is showing signs of stabilization, with an emphasis on identifying undervalued assets and companies in strong growth sectors such as commercial aerospace and AI [40]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The financial system will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [1][3] - The central bank emphasizes the need for integrated effects of stock and incremental policies to stabilize economic growth and maintain a stable financial market [3] - The financial regulatory authority aims to support the stabilization of the real estate market and construct a new development model for real estate [4] Group 2: Economic Forecast and Policy Implementation - The central economic committee anticipates that China's economic indicators will perform better than expected in 2025, with the total economic output projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [2] - In 2026, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances to promote steady economic growth [2] - The finance ministry plans to maintain necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while enhancing the precision and effectiveness of policies [6] Group 3: Financial Risk Management - There is a strong focus on preventing and resolving financial risks in key areas, including local small financial institutions and real estate companies [1][4] - The financial regulatory authority is committed to enhancing regulatory effectiveness and preventing new financial risks while managing existing ones [4][5] - The central bank will continue to prioritize financial stability and risk prevention in its operations [3] Group 4: Consumer Financing and Market Development - Recent initiatives aim to enhance consumer financing services, particularly for durable goods and digital products, to stimulate consumption [7] - Financial institutions are encouraged to collaborate with key merchants to improve payment services and meet consumer demand [7] - The focus is on developing a more integrated approach to domestic and foreign trade financing to support businesses [7] Group 5: Stock Market and IPO Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved an IPO registration for a company, indicating ongoing market activity [12] - Upcoming new stock issuances are scheduled, reflecting continued interest in capital markets [12] - A significant amount of restricted shares will be unlocked this week, totaling approximately 129.42 billion yuan in market value [14]

01 何立峰：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策 加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持 全国金融系统工作会议12月12日在京召开。中共中央政治局委员、中央金融委员会办公室主任何立峰出席会议并讲话。他强调，金融系统要深入学习贯彻中央 经济工作会议精神，准确把握经济工作面临的形势和主要目标任务，坚定做好金融工作的信心和决心，坚持防风险、强监管、促高质量发展工作主线，有力有 序有效做好2026年金融重点工作。要继续着力做好防范化解地方中小金融机构风险、房地产企业涉金融风险、地方政府融资平台金融债务风险工作，严控增 量、妥处存量、严防"爆雷"，严厉打击非法金融活动。要进一步巩固和强化金融监管，完善重点领域监管制度体系并严格落实，持续强化金融机构合规意识和 风险意识，不断提升监管能力，严肃开展金融风险追责问责。要全力以赴推动高质量发展，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中 小微企业等重点领域的金融支持，稳步有序推进金融改革开放，做好预期管理。 02 中央财办韩文秀：明年将根据形势变化出台增量政策 12月13日，中国国际经济交流中心举办了2025—2026中国经济年会。中央财经委员会办 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 14 日 11 月金融数据点评 适度宽松的货币政策将在 2026 年延续 11 月新增社融高于万得一致预期，新增信贷、M2 增速和 M1 增速低于预期， 社融同比基本符合预期；实体经济融资需求依然偏弱，但财政支出可能已经 开始加力。 相关研究报告 《GDP 的顶梁柱》20251212 《 2025 年中央经济工作会议学习体会》 20251212 《分歧"变小"、压力变大》20251211 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿元，较去年同期多增 1597 亿元，较 10 月多增 1.67 万亿元，高于万得一致预期的 2.02 万亿元。11 月社融存量同比增长 8.5%， 较 10 月增速持平，基本持平于万 ...

围绕风险化解方面，韩文秀表示，今年以来风险化解取得了积极进展。地方政府隐性债务有序置换，保 交房任务全面完成。地方重要金融机构改革化险成效明显，清理拖欠企业账款扎实推进，守住了不发生 系统性风险的底线。 韩文秀谈到，本次中央经济工作会议总结了近年来的工作实践，提出了做好新形势下经济工作的规律性 认识，概括为"五个必须"：必须充分挖掘经济潜能、必须坚持政策支持与改革创新并行、必须做到既放 得活又管得好、必须坚持投资于物与人紧密结合、必须苦练内功应对外部挑战。 2025年12月13日，由中国国际经济交流中心主办的"2025—2026中国经济年会"在北京召开。本届年会主 题为"贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，以高质量发展为'十五五'开好局"。中央财办分管日常工作的副 主任、中央农办主任韩文秀，国家发展和改革委员会副秘书长肖渭明，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长 王一鸣，国际货币基金组织原副总裁朱民等嘉宾就中央经济工作会议精神做了全面深入解读。此次年会 由中国国际经济交流中心副理事长胡晓炼主持。 韩文秀 继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 韩文秀表示，一年来，我国经济顶压前行，向新向优发展，展现出了强大的韧性和活力 ...

children 图片说明:财信证券首席经济学家袁闯，执业资格编号：S0530520010002 三是实施适度宽松的货币政策。会议提出要实施"适度宽松的货币政策"，货币政策宽松取向不变，2026年降准降息仍值得期待，但力度及节奏还需观察。会 议提出，"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机 制"。当前，我国物价仍然处于低位、GDP平减指数持续为负，被动抬升了我国实际利率水平，抑制了居民及企业的中长期信贷需求。预计2026年货币政策 仍将继续发力，推动实际利率继续下降，进一步疏通"宽货币"向"宽信用"的传导过程；同时配合"反内卷"和扩内需的政策，推动经济稳定增长的同时，促进 物价合理回升。近期，央行行长潘功胜在人民日报撰文《构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系》，强调"要把握好货币政策的力 度、时机和节奏，更加注重做好跨周期和逆周期调节"，"重点需要处理好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部与外部等三方面关系"。在多重目标考量下， 2026年货币政策的适度宽松力度或不会超过2025年，但综合政策效能将进一步强化 ...

记者丨唐婧 编辑丨周炎炎 12月12日，中国人民银行公布《2025年11月金融统计数据报告》，政府债券快发多发对贷款 的替代效应继续显现。 具体来看，2025年11月末社会融资规模存量为440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%。其中，对实体 经济发放的人民币贷款余额为267.42万亿元，同比增长6.3%；企业债券余额为34.08万亿元， 同比增长5.6%；政府债券余额为94.24万亿元，同比增长18.8%。 从结构看， 11月末对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额占同期社会融资规模存量的60.8%，同比 低1.3个百分点；企业债券余额占比7.7%，同比低0.3个百分点；政府债券余额占比21.4%，同 比高1.8个百分点。 从增量看， 2025年前十一个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿 元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加14.93万亿元，同比少增1.28万亿元；企业债券 净融资2.24万亿元，同比多3125亿元；政府债券净融资13.15万亿元，同比多3.61万亿元。 业内专家表示，今年以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度，对提振内需、稳定经济发挥了积极 作用，也为金融总量合理增长提供了 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core Viewpoints - Since Q3 2025, there has been a prevalent bearish sentiment in the bond market, with long - term bonds significantly adjusted and the term spread of ultra - long bonds notably widened. The current central economic work conference indicates that the current situation is still in a cycle of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 may slightly expand, with the deficit rate likely to remain around 4%. Under debt resolution, the financing demand of urban investment and credit demand may continue to be weak [2]. - The importance of social financing growth rate may decline, and the future may gradually淡化 the total social financing target and shift more towards interest rate regulation. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be around 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. - Currently, the conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be met. It is recommended to patiently wait for the policy interest rate cut, and it is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter [2]. - It is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Bond Market Situation - As of December 11, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 22BP compared to January 2, the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 38BP, and the yield of 5 - year commercial bank secondary capital bonds (AAA -) increased by 44BP. The "30Y - 10Y" treasury bond term spread reached 39BP on December 11, close to the upper limit of the [10,43]BP range since early 2023 [2]. Government Bond Financing - The central economic work conference's statement implies that the deficit rate in 2026 may remain around 4%, and the net issuance scale of government bonds may remain relatively stable. It is expected that the net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 will be about 14.5 trillion yuan, a slight increase year - on - year [2]. Social Financing - The central economic work conference did not mention the matching of social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level targets as in 2024. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be about 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. Policy Interest Rate - The conditions for a policy interest rate cut may be met. The Fed cut interest rates by 75BP in the second half of the year, the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion has been significantly alleviated, the RMB exchange rate has changed from depreciation to a slight appreciation, the cost rate of banks' interest - bearing liabilities has declined steadily, and the economy is under downward pressure [2]. Bond Market Outlook - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter. In the long - term, the yield of 30Y treasury bonds is expected to fall below 2% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]

12月13日，2025-2026中国经济年会召开，主题为"贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，以高质量发展 为'十五五'开好局"。中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀，国家发展改革委副秘书 长肖渭明，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣发表演讲。 韩文秀：明年还将根据形势变化 出台实施增量政策 韩文秀表示，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进，提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调节，切实提升宏 观经济治理效能。去年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，先后出台实施了一系列政策措施，明年还将根据 形势变化出台实施增量政策。要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。市场经 济很大程度上是预期经济，要健全预期管理机制，做好经济宣传和舆论引导，及时回应市场关切，有效 提振社会信心。 具体而言，韩文秀表示，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出 总量。既着眼当前，用好用足政策空间，也为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续。现在一些地方 财政困难，要建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。要优化支出结构，强 化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need to address overdue corporate payments and prevent future occurrences, while promoting a unified national market and fair competition [1] - The government aims to optimize the implementation of the "two new" policies, granting local authorities more autonomy [1][2] - The focus is on enhancing consumer spending through initiatives like the "old-for-new" policy and increasing the supply of quality goods and services [2] Group 2 - The government plans to synchronize income growth with economic growth, maintaining stability in employment and prices [3] - There is a commitment to expand both exports and imports, fostering sustainable foreign trade development [4] - A proactive fiscal policy will be maintained, ensuring necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while supporting domestic demand [5] Group 3 - The government has made progress in risk mitigation in key areas, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [7] - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, with major economic indicators performing better than expected [7][8] - The government emphasizes the importance of innovation and technology in driving industrial upgrades and creating new growth points [2][8] Group 4 - The government outlines five essential principles for economic work under new circumstances, focusing on maximizing economic potential, combining policy support with reform, and ensuring effective management [6][8] - There is a strong emphasis on investing in both physical and human capital to enhance overall development and well-being [8] - The government aims to strengthen its own economy to better respond to external challenges and enhance its competitive position globally [8]