Economic Overview - The U.S. is experiencing an unprecedented economic storm characterized by uncontrolled inflation and rising living costs, while the job market shows signs of weakness with record unemployment rates and initial jobless claims [1][3][5] Inflation and Employment Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) annualized growth rate reached 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July, marking the highest level since January [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, with the broader U6 unemployment rate climbing to 8.1%. Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000 in the first week of September, the highest level in 2023 and since October 2021 [3][9] Factors Driving Inflation - Food and energy prices are significant contributors to inflation, with food prices increasing by 0.6% in August, the largest monthly increase in nearly three years, and gasoline prices rebounding by 1.9% [7] - Housing costs and everyday consumer goods are the primary drivers of sustained inflation, exacerbated by policy factors such as immigration reforms and high tariffs implemented during the Trump administration [9][10] Wage Growth and Consumer Sentiment - Despite nominal wage increases, real wage growth adjusted for inflation was only 0.7% in August, the lowest in over a year, leading to consumer dissatisfaction as they feel the pinch of rising prices [9][10] - Consumers are more concerned about job security and rising grocery prices than macroeconomic indicators, indicating a disconnect between economic policy and everyday realities [13] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation, needing to balance rising inflation with a weakening job market, leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts to stabilize market confidence [11][20] - Global monetary policy divergence adds to economic uncertainty, with different central banks taking varied approaches to interest rates [15] Market Reactions - Global markets are closely monitoring U.S. economic signals, with stock markets generally rising due to expectations of economic stimulus, while safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury yields reflect increased risk aversion [16][18] - Emerging market stocks outperformed developed markets, indicating a shift in investor sentiment amid economic concerns [16] Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that inflation may continue to escalate in the coming months, indicating that the apparent stability of the U.S. economy does not translate to relief for consumers facing financial pressures [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Argentine President Milei emphasized the commitment to fiscal balance in his address regarding the 2026 budget, stating that achieving this goal is crucial for economic growth after decades of stagnation, while failure to do so could lead to uncontrollable inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Policy - President Milei reiterated that fiscal balance is a non-negotiable goal, which he believes will lead to unimaginable growth for the Argentine economy [1] - The 2026 budget allocates 4.8 trillion pesos to public universities, with pension and public healthcare expenditures increasing by 5% and 17% respectively, both exceeding the inflation rate [1] Group 2: Political Context - The ruling coalition "La Libertad Avanza" faced a setback in the Buenos Aires provincial assembly elections, contributing to a decline in Milei's government approval ratings [1] - Allegations of bribery involving key government officials have added to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming midterm elections in October [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - On the day of Milei's address, Argentina's country risk index surpassed 1200 points, indicating ongoing financial market volatility [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making environment has been complicated by personnel changes, particularly the court ruling allowing Governor Cook to remain in her position despite President Trump's attempt to dismiss her [1][2] - Cook, the first African American woman on the Federal Reserve Board, was previously a supporter of maintaining the current interest rates and resisting pressure to lower them [1] - The appointment of Milan, a new Fed governor nominated by Trump, has been confirmed by the Senate, allowing him to participate in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [2] Group 2 - Milan has a strong academic background and has previously criticized the Fed's monetary policies, indicating potential debates within the FOMC regarding interest rate decisions [2] - Market sentiment suggests that investors are anticipating a rate cut from the Fed, with discussions around the magnitude of the cut, which could lead to debates among committee members [2] - Concerns have been raised by economists about the potential for the Fed to lower interest rates below what is necessary for economic fundamentals, which could exacerbate inflation and increase long-term borrowing costs [3]

美国东部时间9月15日，位于华盛顿的联邦上诉法院驳回了司法部的紧急申请，维持了下级法院暂时阻止总统特朗普撤换美联储理事库克的禁令。这意味着 库克将参加本周的议息会议。 库克是美联储首位非裔女性理事，任期原本应到2038年。在上一次议息会议上，她是支持美联储观望、拒绝因特朗普施压而降息的理事之一。 特朗普于8月底指控库克先后将在密歇根州和佐治亚州的两处房产都申报为主要居所，涉嫌欺诈，并宣布将她解职。 5天前，华盛顿法官科布作出初步裁定，特朗普方面没有证明库克作为美联储理事的行为和工作表现存在渎职或欺诈，且其行为损害了美联储理事会和美国 公共利益。在相关诉讼案审理期间，库克将继续任原职。特朗普团队随后要求上诉法院暂停该禁令。 就在美联储召开货币政策会议前夕，两项人事安排宣告确定，这为其利率决策环境增添了不确定性因素。 同样在9月15日，在复核库克的财产记录之后，密歇根州安娜堡房产税管理局称未发现其存在违规行为的证据。这一直截了当的澄清，很可能成为库克方面 有力反驳特朗普解雇理由的关键。 与此同时，特朗普提名的美联储新理事人选米兰已迅速在参议院通过最终投票表决，暂时填补因另一名理事库格勒辞职产生的空缺，任期至明年1 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the realization of Jack Ma's prediction about housing prices, which he stated would decline, contrasting with the prevailing belief that prices would only rise [6][10] - The real estate market has shifted from a speculative "wealth myth" to a more rational phase characterized by deleveraging and reduced demand, leading to increased inventory and stagnant prices [8][10] - Key factors affecting the housing market include declining birth rates, an aging population, and changing societal attitudes towards homeownership, which are all contributing to a decrease in demand for housing [12][14][18] Group 2 - The article highlights the challenges faced by individuals holding cash savings, including low bank interest rates and rising living costs, which erode purchasing power due to inflation [22][24] - It discusses the emergence of new consumer traps where capital exploits consumer behavior through targeted marketing and easy payment options, leading to irrational spending and potential debt [24][26] - The narrative emphasizes the importance of investing in personal skills and capabilities as a means of financial security, rather than relying solely on traditional assets like real estate [30][31][33]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a strong consensus among traders [1] - The upcoming summary of economic projections will provide guidance on the Fed's interest rate outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2026 and 2027, with a debate on whether there will be one or two additional cuts [2] - The previous forecast indicated two cuts with an unemployment rate projected at 4.5% by year-end, suggesting a stable unemployment outlook despite rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, with payroll employment growth averaging only 30,000 per month over the last three months, raising concerns about potential further deterioration [5][6] - The market anticipates a decline in rates not only this year but also in 2026 and 2027, with federal funds futures indicating a drop to around 3% by the end of next year [7] - There is a belief that the current financial conditions are already very accommodative, and the economy is not in a severe downturn, which may temper the extent of future rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The market perceives the reasons for cutting rates as compelling, with inflation impacts from tariffs being smaller than expected and labor market weakness being significant [11] - There is uncertainty regarding how far the Fed will go with rate cuts in the medium to long term, with some market participants potentially being overly optimistic [12] - The influence of the Trump administration on the Fed's independence could lead to lower rates but also higher inflation [13] Group 4 - The upcoming meeting is expected to have a consensus on the direction of rates, with minimal dissent anticipated regarding the decision to cut rates [16][17] - The presence of diverse views within the Federal Reserve is seen as beneficial for robust debate on monetary policy frameworks [18] - The dynamics of the meeting involve discussions on the economy and monetary policy, with all members reviewing the same information, leading to generally small disagreements [20][22]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potentially chaotic meeting, with uncertainty surrounding the number of voting officials due to ongoing court rulings and Senate votes [1][2] - The Fed is expected to vote on interest rate cuts, with futures markets pricing in three cuts for the year, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4] - The outcome of the meeting may depend on the approval of CEA Chair Steven Myron and the potential for dissenting opinions regarding the extent of rate cuts [5][10] Group 2 - Market reactions to the Fed's decisions are anticipated to be influenced by the guidance provided during the meeting and the overall sentiment regarding inflation concerns [7][8] - There is speculation about how individual votes may impact the average outlook of the Fed, with particular attention to any extreme forecasts that could shift market expectations [9][10]

Economic Outlook - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment with slowing economic growth for the year [1] - The anticipated population growth due to immigration is expected to be significantly lower, impacting labor supply [2][4] - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down economic growth [3][6] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor demand is decreasing as the economy weakens, while labor supply is also falling dramatically, leading to a complex jobs market [4][6] - The population numbers are projected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next decade, with a million fewer this year alone [4][5] Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are contributing to higher inflation and are expected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, with $3.3 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] - The CBO follows the administration's policies closely, adjusting forecasts based on current laws and tariffs [9][18] Inflation and Economic Assumptions - Inflation has come in higher than CBO's expectations, attributed to the impact of tariffs, despite a weakening economy [20][21] - The CBO updates its forecasts a few times a year, with the latest adjustments reflecting higher inflation than previously anticipated [20][22]

新华财经上海9月15日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，9月12日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线下跌，CFETS人民币汇率指数报96.6，按周跌 0.17；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报102.39，按周跌0.31；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报91.12，按周跌0.21。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 96.60 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 102.39 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 91.12 | 图片来源：中国外汇交易中心截图 上周（9月8日至12日）美元指数在低位维持窄幅波动，连续第二周录得收跌，全周累计跌0.12%，收于97.62。非美货币上周表现不一：日元跟随美元走势， 上周先涨后跌，最终小幅收跌0.17%；欧元上周继续维持在年内高位震荡，最终小幅收涨0.15%；英镑小幅收涨0.35%。 "展望未来，人民币汇率大概率延续稳健走势。"工银国际首席经济学家程实认为，一方面，我国经济结构转型持续深化，消费升级、科技创新和绿色转型不 断孕育新的增长动能，为国际收支与资本市场提供了坚实支撑；另一方面，在政策协同发 ...

美国通货膨胀数据与预期大致吻合，与之前就业数据的意外形成对照，市场聚焦在美联储9月降息力度 上，不过对大码降息预期有所收敛，两年期国债收益率回升。上周股市在流动性推动下继续向好，港 股、日股和韩股表现突出。美元指数小幅浮动，金价一度突破每盎司3700美元，创历史新高，能源和大 宗商品也表现良好。 市场已经定价了100%的概率，美联储将在本周会议上作出降息一码的决定，争论在于会不会有大码 （甚至超大码）降息。从目前联邦基金利率4.25%~4.5%水平下调并非政策宽松，而是从偏紧走向中 性。过去由于通货膨胀，政策利率被加到偏收缩水平，如今由于就业市场出现问题，利率回归中性区间 合情合理，关键是时机和力度。 本周的焦点在美联储议息，预计降息一码但不完全排除大码降息的可能。 笔者认为美国劳工市场的确在明显下滑，但是失业情况的扩散不严重，公司大多秉持"少雇少炒"的原 则，工资仍在上涨，消费情绪也不算太差。同时，关税政策和移民政策带来的最终冲击尚未显现，货币 政策的调整也只能边走边看。米兰空降美联储（如果参议院完成听证）可以令鸽派声音强一点，但改不 了本届按数据决策的基调。 笔者预期今年最后三次议息会议，每次降息一码，明 ...