2025.06. 15 本文字数：2318，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 2015年6月12日上证指数创下历史次高的5178.19点。回望5178点以来，行业指数价格超越2015年 年中最高点的行业寥寥无几，沪指在不同阶段由不同行业催化出结构性行情，核心波动范围为2700 点-3600点。 近十年间，A股经历了估值回归、产业结构升级，指数虽未重返高点，但一批真正具备成长性的企业 穿越牛熊。 第一财经记者梳理统计发现，以申万一级行业31项指数为基准（2015年6月12日至2025年6月13日 收盘，后复权计算），表现最突出的三大行业是食品饮料、家用电器、银行，其余28个行业指数还 没超过5178点时的点位。 行业与个股的分化是过去十年的主旋律，并不是每只食品饮料、家电或银行股都能跑赢指数或平均水 准，激励的竞争与行业格局改写过程中，龙头股才能收获超额收益，其盈利能力（ROE）和增长质 量（现金流）是核心估值的标尺。 十年间，通信、电子、生物医药、机械设备等一级行业的170余只细分龙头股，实现累计涨幅超 300%。领涨市场的行业与个股，其背后是宏观经济转型与产业结构升级，记者进一步统计，近十年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant structural differentiation over the past decade, with banking stocks outperforming expectations and leading the market recovery since the peak in 2015 [1][8]. Industry Performance - Over the past ten years, the A-share market has seen valuation corrections and industrial upgrades, with the index not returning to its peak but a number of genuinely growth-oriented companies have thrived [2]. - The top three performing sectors since June 12, 2015, are food and beverage, home appliances, and banking, while most other sectors have not surpassed their 2015 highs [2]. - The food and beverage sector has shown resilience due to its essential consumption nature, with leading companies significantly outperforming major indices [3][5]. Stock Performance - The top 20 stocks in the food and beverage sector have shown remarkable growth, with Salted Fish (盐津铺子) leading with a 1,430.52% increase, followed by Shanxi Fenjiu (山西汾酒) and Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) with increases of over 600% and 629.72% respectively [4][5]. - In the home appliance sector, Midea Group (美的集团) has led with a 292.31% increase since 2015, while over 60% of home appliance stocks have seen declines over the same period [6]. - The banking sector has seen a significant rise, with the banking index reaching a historical high of 7,237.72 points, up 11.66% year-to-date and 61.4% since last year [9][10]. Market Trends - The banking sector has shown less differentiation compared to other sectors, with 39 out of 42 banking stocks rising this year [9]. - The preference for high dividend yields has driven the banking sector's performance, with the index recovering losses from previous years [9][12]. - Despite the strong performance of banking stocks, the allocation of funds to this sector has been relatively low, with a significant shift towards emerging industries since 2010 [10].

本周上证指数跌 0.25%，沪深 300 跌 0.25%，恒生指数涨 0.42%。小盘股涨幅较 大，本周全 A 日均交易额 13716 亿，环比上周有所上升。在此，我们强调：6 月大 盘指数依然是在 407 黄金坑兑现后转入"震荡市"，临近震荡区间上沿就有回落压 力。中期来看，对于后续市场的三类预判：类比 2020 年（核心是由意外事件导致 中美欧政策步入同频共振政策周期，结构是以大盘成长为代表的核心资产占优）， 类比 2024 年（存在明确二次探底形成双底，结构是高股息为核心的杠铃策略）， 类比 2019 年（核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上呈现消费+科 技"跷跷板"双轮动）。目前看"年初 AI 新科技 DeepSeek1.0"+"5 月军工科技 Deepseek2.0 时刻"+"创新药 Deepseek3.0 时刻"使得市场逐渐意识到"新胜于旧" 的定价思路，那么 A 股真有点像 2019 年了。 近期发生的一系列重大事件对于市场的影响值得探讨，总体而言虽然外部环境波谲 云诡，但对于 A 股资产定价并未造成明确"二次探底"风险。事实上，需明确：国内 5 月经济数据虽然显示内需孱弱，但在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector offers attractive income opportunities, with MPLX being a standout option for income investors due to its high yield and strong financial foundation [1][10]. Financial Performance - MPLX currently yields over 7%, significantly higher than the average energy stock yield of around 3% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.3% [1][10]. - The company generated nearly $1.5 billion in distributable cash flow in the first quarter, covering its distribution by 1.5 times [4]. - MPLX produced about $500 million in excess free cash flow during the same period, allowing it to cover organic capital spending comfortably [5]. Growth Potential - MPLX's adjusted EBITDA rose by 7% in the first quarter, while distributable cash flow increased by 8.5% [6]. - The company has achieved a nearly 7% compound annual growth rate in earnings and cash flow since 2021 [6]. - MPLX has increased its distribution at a 10.7% compound annual rate since 2021, including a 12.5% increase last year [7]. Future Investments - MPLX has several new investments planned, including the Traverse Pipeline, which is expected to enter commercial service in 2027, and multiple other projects with in-service dates through 2029 [8]. - The company anticipates mid-teen returns on these projects, supporting mid-single digit adjusted EBITDA growth [9]. - MPLX is actively using its strong balance sheet for acquisitions, including a $715 million purchase of the remaining 55% of the BANGL pipeline [9].

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 6 月 20 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 3 位读者获赠本期推 荐新书！ 01 《钱商：投资、决策与财富增长的9大思维》 [美]伊利亚·斯特雷布拉耶夫 [美]亚历克斯·邓 著 中信出版集团 出版 内容简介 一个人要想赚到钱，关键在于形成对投资和财富的正确认知，持续提升自己的钱 商。 作为世界上最成功的财富创造群体之一，风险投资人在资本市场上经历了无数次 探索与试错，逐步形成了一套高回报的思维模式。作为这个群体的一员，本书作 者通过多年的教学与研究将这些投资智慧系统化，帮助上千名学生在财富管理上 取得了实质性进展。基于这一成果，作者总结出风投式思维的九大核心原则，并 将之呈现在本书中。 本书清晰地展现了如何在复杂多变的市场环境中识别机会、规避风险并坚定追求 高回报。书中的九条风投式思维囊括了投资组合发现机会、风险管理、慧眼识人 和长期价值等方方面面每一条原则不仅着眼于财富增值，更帮助读者在面对不确 定性时具备冷静思考的智慧。 无论是刚入门的投资新手，还是期望提升财商的职业人士，这本书都将帮你掌握 金钱运转的核心法则，实现个人跃迁。 作者简介 伊利亚·斯特雷布拉耶夫 斯坦福大学商 ...

自2022年3月24日成立至2025年3月31日，中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起的份额净值增长率为36.85%， 业绩比较基准增长率为7.02%，跑赢业绩比较基准29.83%。相比红利贝塔所提供的收益，这只基金的超额 收益显然更应该被看到。 这几年，红利风格凭借长期稳健的表现，拥有了越来越多的粉丝。 但一只优秀的红利主题基金，收益来源显然不只是贝塔；只有当红利主题叠加显著超额能力的Buff，才会 创造近2年位列前1%（19/2987）的优秀业绩（排名数据来源：海通证券，具体分类为混合型-主动混合开 放型-强股混合型，近2年排名数据为19/2987，数据截至2025.3.31）。 在计算超额收益时，很多人会用中证红利指数作为参考；但如果要求更高，不妨以中证红利全收益指为参 考。当然，对持有人来说，体验更好的超额收益，是在没有显著放大波动的情况下获得的。 中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起 自成立以来业绩及同期指数表现 | 简称 | 中泰红利优选一年 | 中证红利指数 | | 中证红利全收益 中证红利低波 中证红利质量 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持有混合发 ...

商务部介绍中美经贸磋商机制首次会议； 包括沪深300、上证50、上证180等指数样本股将调整，今日（6月13日）收市后生效； 美国商务部宣布自6月23日起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机冰箱在列； 印度坠机事故造成至少265人遇难，机上242人中有241人已确认遇难，1人生还。波音股价大 跌近5%； 蚂蚁集团两家子公司官宣入局稳定币。 重要的消息有哪些 1．商务部新闻发言人何亚东在6月12日举行的商务部例行新闻发布会上说，当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸 团队在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，双方就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸 会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。他说，下一步，双方将进一步发挥 好中美经贸磋商机制作用，继续保持沟通对话，不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作，共同推动中美经贸关系 行稳致远。 重要消息 2．6月12日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。有记者就中美经贸磋商机制会议提问。林剑表示，我要强调 本次会议是在两国元首的战略指引下举行，双方就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成 果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance has acquired a 5.09% stake in Hangzhou Bank, becoming its fourth-largest shareholder, reflecting a trend of insurance companies increasing investments in high-dividend bank stocks in 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Xinhua Insurance purchased 330 million shares of Hangzhou Bank from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia at a price of 13.095 yuan per share, totaling approximately 4.317 billion yuan [2]. - The transaction was initiated in January 2025 and completed with the approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration [2][3]. - Following the acquisition, Xinhua Insurance holds a total of 363 million shares in Hangzhou Bank, solidifying its position as a significant stakeholder [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - In 2025, insurance companies have made 15 equity acquisitions, with a notable focus on bank stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards high-dividend assets [4][5]. - The preference for bank stocks is attributed to declining long-term interest rates and the need for asset reallocation, as insurance companies seek stable dividend returns [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory initiatives have encouraged insurance funds to invest in the capital market, aiming to enhance the stability and proportion of insurance capital in A-shares [7][8]. - The government has introduced policies to facilitate long-term investments by insurance companies, including lowering risk factors for stock investments and promoting a "long money, long investment" strategy [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has shown strong performance this year, with related thematic funds experiencing significant net value increases, suggesting medium to long-term investment value in the BSE sector [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The BSE 50 Index has risen by 37.25% year-to-date, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [1] - Nearly 40 BSE-themed funds have seen an average net value increase of approximately 33.53% this year, with some funds like CITIC Securities BSE Selected Mixed Fund A and Huaxia BSE Innovative SMEs Selected Fund A achieving net value increases of over 70% [1][2] - 24 BSE funds have recorded net value increases exceeding 30% this year, indicating a broad-based positive performance across various funds [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on companies with growth potential and strong R&D investments, particularly those in hot sectors and those benefiting from capacity expansion [3] - There is an emphasis on companies that are diversifying and expanding their industrial chains, as well as state-owned enterprises with stable operations and strong growth capabilities [3] - Investment strategies include targeting long-cycle performance stability and unique production capabilities, high dividend and steady growth domestic demand stocks, and thematic sectors such as AI and low-altitude economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in A-shares is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant inflows into bank ETFs, indicating robust investor confidence and potential for continued growth [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3400 points, while the banking sector continues to rise, with the top bank ETF (512800) achieving a five-day consecutive increase and approaching a historical high [1][3]. - The China Securities Bank Index has seen a cumulative increase of 9.6% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 by 8.17 and 10.86 percentage points, respectively [4][5]. - Since the low point in October 2022, the China Securities Bank Index has surged over 54%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has only increased by 16% [4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Performance - The bank ETF (512800) has recorded a net inflow of 5.06 billion yuan over the past five days, reflecting strong investor interest [5][7]. - As of June 11, the bank ETF's total size reached 8.861 billion yuan, making it the largest and most liquid among the ten A-share bank ETFs [7]. Group 3: Dividend and Valuation - The bank ETF's underlying index has a dividend yield of 5.6%, which is significantly higher than the yield on 10-year government bonds, indicating strong income potential for investors [7]. - The banking sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with a static price-to-book (PB) ratio of only 0.67, suggesting a substantial margin of safety for investors [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutional investors, including insurance and public funds, are expected to continue their long-term allocations to bank stocks, supporting their absolute value in the coming quarters [8]. - The banking sector is anticipated to attract new incremental capital from insurance funds, driven by regulatory encouragement for long-term investments [8].