Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.15% to 64.48 cents per pound, while CF601 rose 0.52% to 13,605 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,553 lots to 579,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,490 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The market focus is on the macro - level. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is fluctuating. U.S. cotton prices declined as the U.S. dollar index weakened. Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating around 13,600 yuan per ton. The adjustment of Sino - U.S. tariffs will take effect on November 10, boosting market sentiment. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure but also has support. This year's new cotton has a bumper harvest, resulting in significant supply - side pressure. The support comes from consumption, cost, and expectations. There is no strong new driver on both supply and demand sides, and the supply - demand contradiction within the year is not prominent. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate at the current price in the short term, waiting for new drivers [1]. - **Sugar**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making group is 5,620 - 5,700 yuan per ton, with some prices up 20 yuan per ton. Yunnan sugar - making group's old sugar is priced at 5,530 - 5,580 yuan per ton, and new sugar at 5,490 - 5,690 yuan per ton. The raw sugar price hit a five - year low last night and then rebounded slightly. With the expected bumper harvests in India, Thailand, and China, the short - term sugar price rebound is weak. Guangxi sugar mills are actively reducing inventory to prepare for the new crushing season. There is no significant new driver in the market, and the price center is slowly moving down. The support at 5,400 yuan per ton needs further verification. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,215 yuan, up 5 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,618 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan, and the national spot price is 14,820 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 50 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main contract basis is 242 yuan, down 7 yuan. The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,690 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On November 6, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,769, an increase of 17 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,512. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions on November 6 were: 14,618 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,852 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,869 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,950 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. On November 6, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.6, unchanged; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 51.9, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 30.4, unchanged [3]. - **Sugar**: On November 6, the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,690 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,422, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,586 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of sugar [7][14]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [19][20][21]. 5. Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [24].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in the US dollar index above 100 is driven by a combination of factors, including a cooling expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, political uncertainties in Europe and Japan, and tightening liquidity conditions. However, analysts believe that this upward trend may not be sustainable in the long term, with a potential return to a downward trajectory for the dollar index [1][9]. Group 1: Factors Driving Dollar Strength - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since early August, reaching a high of 100.36, a 4.3% increase from the mid-September low of 96.2 [1]. - Analysts attribute the dollar's strength to three main factors: a reduction in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, political instability in Europe and Japan, and tightening liquidity conditions [1][6][7]. - The Federal Reserve's recent statements, particularly from Chairman Jerome Powell, have tempered expectations for further rate cuts, with a significant drop in the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December to 67%, down approximately 15 percentage points from a month ago [5][9]. Group 2: Political Uncertainties Impacting Non-USD Currencies - Political instability in France, the UK, and Japan has contributed to the weakening of non-USD currencies, enhancing the relative strength of the dollar [6]. - In France, the recent political turmoil led to a downgrade of the country's sovereign rating outlook to "negative" by Moody's [6]. - The UK faces economic challenges, as indicated by the Prime Minister's announcement of tax increases, which negatively impacted the British pound [6]. Group 3: Liquidity Conditions and Market Sentiment - The ongoing US government shutdown has led to a tightening of liquidity, with bank reserves dropping to their lowest levels since 2025, and the overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) rising to 4.22% [7][8]. - Despite the tightening, analysts do not foresee a liquidity crisis similar to that of 2008, attributing current pressures to technical factors rather than systemic issues [8]. - The Federal Reserve has been actively managing liquidity through various tools, indicating that while there are pressures, the overall dollar liquidity remains manageable [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook for the Dollar Index - Analysts generally agree that the recent rise in the dollar index is likely to be temporary, with expectations of a return to a downward trend as the US government shutdown ends and potentially weak economic data emerges [9][10]. - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate around the 100 mark in the fourth quarter, influenced by various economic and political factors, leading to a potentially volatile outlook [10].

11月7日金价速报，国内品牌金店的首饰金价还在涨，整体涨幅在7元/克，对比昨日涨幅略有扩大。今日周大福的首饰金价 上涨9元/克，报1268元/克，与潮宏基、周大生并列最高价金店；上海中国黄金上涨8元/克，报价1188元/克，还是最低价金 店。今日金价高低价差微微缩小，报80元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年11月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1263 | 元/克 | 7 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1266 | 元/克 | 9 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1268 | 元/克 | 9 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1261 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1266 | 元/克 | 9 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1263 | 元/克 | 7 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1268 | 元/克 | 9 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1266 | 元/克 | ...

·宝城期货：金价高位回撤约10% 可持续关注4000美元关口多空博弈 ·宝城期货表示，金价冲高回落，纽约金再度跌落至每盎司4000美元下方。短期美元指数和金价共同下 跌，美股也呈现下跌态势，这可能是短期流动性短缺所致。10月美联储议息会议后，市场降息预期下 降，导致美元指数持续走强。短期美元指数在100关口冲高回落，这或给予金价一度支撑。此外，金价 高位回撤约10%，可持续关注每盎司4000美元关口多空博弈。 ·正信期货表示，芝加哥联储主席表示缺乏关键经济数据的情况下，不愿意继续降息周期，近期美联储 内部鹰派声音有所增强，对贵金属价格形成压制。美国私人数据提供商显示美国10月非农就业人数减少 9100人，招聘率和离职率同步下降，显示劳动力市场动能放缓；另一项数据表明，美国雇主在10月份宣 布裁员超过15万人，创7个月以来的最高水平，市场再次加大对12月降息押注，CME FedWatch利率工具 显示12月降息概率为70.6%。美国政府停摆继续，数据真空及美联储内部分歧令市场对12月降息预期反 复，COMEX黄金期货与COMEX白银期货日内价格波动较大。全球黄金ETF连续第五个月实现资金流 入，显示黄金投资动能 ...

周五亚洲交易时段，黄金保持坚挺，现交投于3990至4000美元区间。随着美国政府停摆进入第六周，市 场对经济放缓的忧虑升温。Challenger数据显示，10月裁员人数超过15万人，创二十年来新高，强化了 市场对美联储12月降息的押注。分析人士指出，降息预期降低了黄金的持有成本，吸引力因此增强。 Zaner Metals策略师Peter Grant表示："财政和政治不确定性升温，使避险买盘重新成为市场主导力 量。"交易员将密切关注北京时间今晚公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以判断美国消费端动能是否 进一步减弱。 当前市场依旧由避险与流动性主导，若密歇根大学消费者信心数据不及预期，市场对美联储12月降息的 预期或将进一步增强，从而支撑黄金维持高位震荡。总体来看，短线仍可保持逢低布局思路，但需关注 美联储官员讲话可能引发的短期波动。 整体而言，避险情绪支撑黄金在高位运行，短线支撑关注3990美元，关键压力位仍在4000美元关口。美 元在通胀风险与降息预期的拉扯中反弹受限，原油则在供需与地缘因素交织下震荡整理。未来，市场焦 点将转向密歇根大学消费者信心数据及美联储官员威廉姆斯、杰斐逊与米兰的讲话，以寻找政策基调的 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices remain strong, trading between $3990 and $4000, driven by concerns over economic slowdown due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and rising political uncertainty [1] - The Challenger report indicates that October layoffs exceeded 150,000, marking the highest monthly figure in nearly two decades, which has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] - Analysts suggest that the prospect of rate cuts reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its attractiveness as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - WTI crude oil prices slightly increased to around $59.60 per barrel, supported by a weaker dollar, although rising inventories continue to exert pressure on the market [1] - U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows an increase of 5.202 million barrels in crude oil inventories last week, raising concerns about weak demand [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela and disruptions in Russian Black Sea fuel exports, partially offset negative supply impacts, leading analysts to believe oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]

1. 根据美国就业咨询公司"挑战者企业"周四公布，由于企业采纳人工智能并削减成本的影响开始浮现，美国雇主10月裁减超过15万个职务，创20 年来同期最大降幅。美国政府关门创史上最长纪录、导致官方数据缺席之际，民间机构的经济数据格外受投资者重视。 2. 挑战者报告的发布也令市场震荡。该报告显示，10月份企业裁员超过15万人，创下20多年来单月最大降幅。这一消息引发了市场对美联储12月 会议降息预期的重新评估。 3. 美联储官员们的立场也摇摆不定，其中克利夫兰联储主席哈马克坚持其鹰派言论。与此同时，美联储理事巴尔的态度则略显中立，呼应了纽约 联储主席威廉姆斯的一些观点，后者表示中性利率将在1%左右。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： ●FPG最新市场脱水消息： | | 黄金 (XAUUSD) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏空 日内方向 | | | | | 4010 阻力 | | 4024 | 4045 | | 3990 支撑 | | 3982 | 3972 | | 动能 | 动力强（实时 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights that the acceleration of AI integration, weak consumer spending, and rising costs are driving companies to cut expenditures and adjust workforce structures, leading to significant layoffs in the U.S. job market [1][4][5] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs of 153,000 employees, a staggering increase of 183% month-over-month, marking the highest monthly total since 2003 and a 175% increase compared to the same month last year [1][3] - Year-to-date, approximately 1.1 million layoffs have been announced, representing a 65% increase from the previous year, making it the largest year for layoffs since the pandemic began [1][3] Group 2 - The technology sector is identified as the hardest hit, with 33,300 layoffs in October, nearly six times the number in September, primarily due to the impact of AI integration and automation [3][4] - The report indicates that the five industries with the highest cumulative layoffs this year are government, technology, warehousing, retail, and services, collectively accounting for over 70% of total layoffs [3] - The report suggests that the difficulty for laid-off workers to find new jobs is increasing, with longer job search cycles and reduced job supply, indicating a weakening momentum in employment growth [3][5] Group 3 - The current wave of layoffs is closely linked to the accelerated application of AI technology, which is reshaping workforce demand, particularly in the technology and media sectors [4][5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, with a 62% probability of a 25 basis point cut, as ongoing weak employment data may prompt a more accommodative monetary policy [5] - Analysts believe that the combination of AI penetration, cooling consumer demand, and fiscal uncertainties is leading companies to adopt defensive measures, which may delay economic recovery [5]

Macro News - The U.S. ADP employment numbers for October showed an increase of 42,000, the largest growth since July 2025, exceeding expectations of 28,000 [1] - The total employment numbers for September were revised to a decrease of 29,000 from a previous estimate of a decrease of 32,000 [1] - The ISM services PMI for October rebounded above expectations, reaching an eight-month high, while the prices paid index hit a three-year high [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December is 37.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 62.5% [1] Market Performance - On Wednesday, precious metal prices saw a slight rebound but remained in a narrow trading range, forming a reversal pattern from Tuesday [2] - COMEX gold for December delivery closed at $3,990.4 per ounce, up 0.75%, while silver closed at $47.86 per ounce, up 1.2% [2] - SHFE gold for December delivery closed at 912.26 yuan per gram, down 0.77%, and silver at 11,276 yuan per kilogram, down 0.73% [2] Investment Outlook - In the medium to long term, central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand due to monetary easing prospects and phase-specific hedging trades are expected to support higher precious metal prices [2] - However, in the short term, a period of adjustment is anticipated, with November likely lacking strong driving forces [2] - Key resistance levels for London gold are between 4,050-4,100, with support at 3,900 and strong support in the 3,800-3,850 range; for silver, resistance is at 49.5-50, with support at 47.5 and strong support at 45.5 [2]

基本面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得小实体阳线收盘继续盘踞短期回吐后偏低区间运行，显示短期市场仍具卖压，金价或仍面临3920--4030区间多空争夺，交易者留意 后市突破选择。1--4小时级别，金价自4380高位回吐后热度消退，自触及3886一线后迎来持续盘整态势并延续至本周盘中，隔夜价格自3930--3990区间未能 美国10月ADP小非农大超预期，新增就业4.2万个，高于市场预估的2.8万个；10月ISM非制造业PMI更是飙升至52.4，创下今年2月以来最高水平。新订单指 数强劲，服务业活动全面开花。数据一出，市场瞬间"鹰"声四起，美联储12月降息概率从上周的95%暴跌至62%，周三一度只有58%！美元指数盘中冲高 100.36，创5月29日以来新高；10年期美债收益率暴涨1.86%，收盘4.16%，创10月7日以来最高。好于预期的ADP数据可能并不意味着劳动力市场发生了实质 性变化，因为一些行业，例如专业商业服务业，已经连续第三个月裁员，但确实有助于缓解人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。 美国政府停摆已经进入第36天，刷新1879年以来最长纪录！13000名空管、50000名TSA安检员无薪上岗，航空公司已经炸锅 ...