Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a "first dip, then rise" pattern next week, presenting a favorable opportunity for positioning before the year-end market [3][13]. Market Analysis - After a high on Monday, the market entered a phase of fluctuation and adjustment, indicating significant investor divergence. The recent developments, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the economic work conference, aligned with expectations, providing more certainty and potentially lowering risk assessments. The upcoming "super central bank week" and Japan's interest rate trends may introduce uncertainties that could temporarily suppress risk evaluations [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has seen a consensus expectation for technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of extreme risk styles is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to emerge in mid-cap blue-chip stocks, which are anticipated to rise again after a four-year lull [5][15]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been dormant for years, is approaching a turning point. Stocks in this sector, such as mid-sized liquor, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care, are expected to rebound due to price corrections and supply constraints [6][16]. 2. The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic minor metals (like antimony and rare earths), as well as industrial metals (copper and aluminum) that are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, alongside traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber [6][16]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: - **Aerospace and Satellites**: The sector is gaining strength, with expectations for continued event-driven catalysts, particularly in reusable rockets and accelerated industry IPOs [7][17]. - **Nuclear Fusion**: After a prolonged adjustment, the nuclear fusion sector is beginning to rebound, with anticipated industrial catalysts and a shift from theoretical research to engineering practice, suggesting significant future investment demand [7][17]. - **Consumer Sector**: Recent government initiatives to boost consumption indicate that policies aimed at improving domestic demand may become a central theme in 2026, particularly in service consumption [7][17]. - **Semiconductors**: Anticipated expansions in domestic wafer fabrication and the capitalization of leading domestic storage chip manufacturers present opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials [8][18]. - **Upstream Price Increases**: The report notes a continuing trend of price increases in the short term, with structural growth in demand and supply constraints providing upward price elasticity for related commodities, particularly in non-ferrous metals, new energy upstream, and chemicals [8][17].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a defensive investment strategy, suggesting to wait for better timing to enter the market as adjustments increase [6] - The mechanical industry is projected to achieve stable growth in 2025, reflecting the enhancement of China's manufacturing capabilities, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks that show potential for both stable growth and technological advancement [6] - The "ice and snow economy" is evolving from a niche seasonal activity into a vibrant trillion-yuan industry, with significant regional developments and policy support [6] Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a rebound that faces resistance, with participants adopting a more conservative mindset as trading willingness decreases [6] - It is advised to focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks in sectors with improving marginal demand, particularly in advanced manufacturing and electronics [6] - Relevant ETFs include the CSI Cash Flow ETF and various sector-specific ETFs [6] Industry Strategy - The mechanical industry is expected to maintain steady demand growth into 2026, with an increasing importance of technological empowerment [6] - Key areas for investment include lithium battery equipment, industrial mother machines, oil and gas equipment, and engineering machinery [6] - Recommended stocks include CIMC Vehicles and Hangcha Group, with associated ETFs for further investment options [6] Thematic Strategy - The ice and snow economy is characterized by a shift from northern regional activities to a nationwide resonance, with southern regions developing large indoor ski facilities [6] - There is a growing trend of integrating local cultural elements into winter sports, supported by government policies aimed at promoting the ice and snow economy [6] - Relevant ETFs for this sector include tourism ETFs [6]

展望2026年，机械中盘蓝筹公司孕育投资机会 受国内政策支持推动、以及海外份额提升影响，该行认为机械行业总需求平稳增长。与此同时，科技发 展是十五五的重要目标，因此该行认为科技赋能的重要性提升。综合来看，该行认为兼具稳定增长板块 和科技成长潜力的细分行业内的中盘蓝筹公司具有更好的投资机会。从主业增长和新成长潜力等视角 看，该行认为八大细分领域将涌现投资机会，包括锂电设备、工业母机、油气装备、叉车装备、欧美出 海机械、工程机械、煤炭机械、轻工装备等，看好该细分领域中盘蓝筹公司的投资机会。 2025年机械板块稳定增长，反映机械制造实力提升 风险提示 2025年来，在国家的支持下，我国机械装备行业实现持续发展，机械行业实现了稳定的增长，根据统计 局，金属制品、机械和设备修理业营业收入在25年持续增长;根据中国机械联，机械工业景气指数在 2025年处于较高水平。该行认为机械板块的稳定增长反映了我国机械装备制造实力的提升。 智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，展望2026年，机械行业总需求平稳增长，且科技赋能的重要 性继续提升，则中盘蓝筹公司更为受益。该行看好机械板块的中盘蓝筹公司投资机会，该行认为锂电设 备、工业 ...

从内销来看，目前我国挖机的结构在改善，小挖的占比仍高，反映机器人替人的需求，大挖的占比提 升，反映大型项目和矿山需求提升，而中挖的比例则保持较低水平，也反映了地产建筑的结构性拖累。 从出口看，我国挖机主要销往新兴国家，而新兴国家的城市化建设仍在持续，该行认为国内主机厂通过 深耕海外市场提升竞争力，份额也在持续提升。综合来看，该行认为11 月增速回升的背后反映了经济 的结构性改善。 智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，看到挖掘机11月增速回升，而其中内销改善反映了经济的结 构性改善，出口改善反映了行业的竞争力上升。该行认为市场对行业结构性改善的预期将上升，也将带 来风险评价的下降，利好中盘蓝筹公司的投资机会。部分相关标的：恒立液压(601100.SH，未评级)、 柳工(000528.SZ，未评级)、中联重科(000157.SZ，买入)、徐工机械(000425.SZ，未评级)。 东方证券主要观点如下： 挖掘机11月销量增速回升 根据工程机械协会，2025 年1-11 月，共销售挖掘机21.22 万台，同比增长16.7%，其中，国内销量10.82 万台，同比增长18.6%，出口销量10.40 万台，同比增长14 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates an upward trend in the market with improved win rates, despite limited upward space, maintaining a mid-term oscillating pattern [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and clear industry positions, which are expected to attract incremental capital during the market's upward oscillation [4][9] - The brokerage sector is poised for growth due to favorable policy changes and internal transformations, leading to a clearer growth path for brokerage firms [5][9] - The military industry is highlighted for its dual demand from domestic and international markets, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as new equipment construction plans are set to be clarified [6][9] Market Strategy - The report notes a slight recovery in market sentiment following favorable policies for domestic insurance companies and a shift in the U.S. national security strategy, leading to a rebound in non-bank financials, metals, communications, and AI sectors [9] - It suggests that the "slow bull" market will continue, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks being the backbone of the market's upward movement [4][9] Industry Strategy - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a positive regulatory environment that encourages the differentiation of firms, promoting high-quality development and improved profitability [5][9] - The military sector is projected to see growth driven by new production capabilities and the expansion of military trade markets, particularly in unmanned systems and advanced equipment [6][9]

Core Insights - The report indicates an upward trend in the market with improved win rates, despite limited upward space, maintaining a mid-term oscillating pattern [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and clear industry positions, which are expected to attract incremental capital during the market's upward oscillation [4][9] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from favorable policies and internal transformations, leading to a clearer growth path for performance [5][9] - The military industry is highlighted for its dual demand dynamics, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as new equipment construction plans are clarified [6][9] Market Strategy - The market has shown a slight recovery in risk appetite due to favorable domestic insurance investment policies and a shift in U.S. national security strategy, leading to a rebound in non-bank financials, metals, communications, and AI sectors [9] - The report suggests that the current market environment favors structural opportunities within advanced manufacturing, non-bank finance, technology, and cyclical sectors [9] Sector Strategy - The brokerage sector is undergoing a transformation driven by regulatory support for quality firms, which is expected to enhance leverage and profitability [5][9] - The report outlines a differentiated development pattern in the brokerage industry, focusing on strengthening leading firms while allowing smaller institutions to specialize [9] Thematic Strategy - The military sector is poised for growth with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing new production capabilities in unmanned systems and deep-sea technology [6][9] - The report identifies potential growth areas in military trade and civil applications, particularly as domestic power systems advance [6][9]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a strengthened expectation for a market style shift towards mid-cap blue chips, with investment opportunities identified in the consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors of mid-cap blue chips [3][13]. Market Analysis - The market continues its rebound, with recent news regarding adjustments to insurance companies' stock investment risk factors and comments from Chairman Wu Qing reinforcing the trend of index fluctuations. This combination of lower risk assessments, a slight increase in risk-free rates, and a convergence of risk preferences towards the middle suggests ongoing investment opportunities in companies with moderate risk profiles [4][14]. - The risk assessment is expected to decline as Chairman Wu's remarks paint a more stable and predictable long-term development outlook, alleviating investor concerns about the long-term prospects of the Chinese capital market. Additionally, the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies reduces the capital occupation cost for investing in A-shares, encouraging greater equity asset allocation [4][14]. - There is a potential slight increase in risk-free rates as insurance companies may shift more funds from fixed-income assets to stocks, which could support the risk-free rate due to improved expectations for the capital market's efficiency in serving the real economy and new productive forces [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has consistently anticipated a trend towards technology and dividends. The report suggests that the current market style of extreme risk is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to be found in stocks with moderate risk characteristics. The mid-cap blue chip market, which has been dormant for four years, is expected to rise again [6][16]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-cap blue chips across three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been underperforming for years, is approaching a turning point. Many consumer stocks are undervalued, and supply constraints may lead to price increases. Focus areas include mid-sized liquor companies, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care [7][17]. 2. The cyclical sector is experiencing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic metals (such as antimony and rare earths), industrial metals (copper and aluminum), and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are seeing improved supply-demand dynamics [7][17]. 3. The manufacturing sector is shifting from "dream narratives" to "reality verification." Investment in this sector should focus on validating orders and revenues rather than speculative stories. Key areas include communications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery, which are expected to show consistent performance [7][17]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: 1. Aerospace satellites: There is market divergence regarding the progress of the satellite industry next year, with expectations for continuous event catalysts related to reusable rockets, which could significantly boost industry development. The pace of industry IPOs is expected to accelerate, with opportunities in satellite constellation networking, satellite bidding, commercial rockets, and terminal applications [8][18]. 2. Upstream price increases: Supply constraints and structural demand growth are expected to provide price elasticity for related products, particularly in the upstream of the new energy industry, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [8][20]. 3. Semiconductor expansion and domestic substitution: Domestic wafer fabs are anticipated to expand next year, and the capitalization processes of domestic memory chip leaders are progressing. Attention should be given to domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials for domestic substitution [8][20]. 4. Artificial intelligence: Recent market divergences have been digested, and expectations for industry development are likely to continue rising, with a focus on robotics and computing power [8][20].

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recording a trading volume of 1.55 trillion, a decrease of 121 billion compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.01% [1]. Sector Performance - Sectors such as robotics and commercial aerospace saw significant gains, while sectors like Hainan, tourism, and food experienced declines [1]. Analyst Insights - Dongwu Securities indicated that the market may exhibit a balanced trend with a focus on large-cap stocks this month, while small-cap growth stocks may show weakness [2]. - Huachuang Securities noted that the rotation strength among industries has increased, with the technology sector expanding into dividend and "anti-involution" assets. The rotation strength has risen to the 52nd percentile since 2021, and both policy and industrial cycles are accelerating this trend [3]. - CICC highlighted the robust growth of global commercial aerospace, which is driving demand for rocket launches. The number of global space launches is expected to increase from 112 in 2020 to 263 in 2024, with domestic reusable rockets anticipated to mature [4]. Investment Focus - Dongwu Securities suggested focusing on sectors with improved marginal performance, including cyclical goods benefiting from global supply reshaping, consumer goods influenced by policy stimulus and structural upgrades, and advanced manufacturing that can validate expectations through performance [2]. - Huachuang Securities emphasized that cyclical assets with high weight in dividend assets are likely to benefit from the narrowing inflation level, which has improved from -3.6% to -2.1% year-on-year as of October [3].

Market Outlook - December is expected to start strong, with a market trend of initial gains followed by potential declines in a volatile environment[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index's 5-day moving average has formed a death cross with the 30-day moving average, indicating short-term resistance[6] Investment Strategy - Focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the consumer sector, which is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn[6] - Key sectors to watch include AI-driven new materials and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics[6] Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected consumer recovery, unclear demand scenarios, and uncertainties surrounding the sustainability of trade-in subsidy policies[5] ETF Recommendations - Suggested ETFs include cash flow ETFs and sector-specific ETFs for consumer goods, beverages, and home appliances, which are expected to perform well in the current market[6]

Market Strategy - The recent market rebound aligns with previous predictions of a "layout window emerging," but the market has not shown a simultaneous increase in volume and price, indicating that the rebound does not change the overall oscillating pattern [6] - The current tension in Sino-Japanese relations is a major factor restraining risk appetite, suggesting a cautious approach to technology growth sectors, which are more sensitive to risk preferences [6] - The real estate market has been in a downward trend since the policy release last September, with recent price increases in the sector driven by changes in policy expectations and capital inflows, but further confirmation of policy effectiveness is needed to sustain this momentum [6] Sector Strategy - In the technology sector, a cautious approach is recommended due to the difficulty in further upward adjustments in expectations amid declining risk appetite [6] - The cyclical consumer manufacturing sector, characterized by medium risk, is expected to gain market consensus as conditions evolve [6] - The real estate sector requires significant fiscal policy measures, such as mortgage interest subsidies, to boost market confidence and reverse negative expectations [6] Defense Industry - Recent U.S. arms sales to Japan, totaling approximately $82 million, may accelerate China's equipment development in response to increasing uncertainties in the Asia-Pacific region [6] - The geopolitical climate, influenced by Japan's military expansion and U.S. support, is likely to drive growth in China's defense capabilities [6]