Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors such as macro - economic data, trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics across different commodities and financial markets. Investors should pay attention to these factors and make investment decisions accordingly [1][19][34] - For most commodities, the market presents a complex situation with both supportive and restrictive factors, and specific investment strategies vary by commodity [3][8][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices rebounded with Brent 08 contract up 6.45%. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and improved macro - risk sentiment support oil prices after the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase fades [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under a situation of weak supply and demand [20] - **Asphalt**: Supply growth lacks momentum, demand is seasonally increasing, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a strengthening BU crack spread [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Domestic refinery prices are weak, but supply pressure has decreased. The market is expected to remain in low - level oscillations [22] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Gold prices fell on Friday due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, suppressing Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold is supported at $3000 and a buy - on - dip strategy is considered [2] - **Silver**: After breaking through resistance, silver has more upside potential [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices retreated, and inventory decreased. The Fed may keep rates unchanged, and the market focuses on US tariff negotiations. Short - term traders should consider stop - losses above 79,500 [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. De - stocking slowed, and the market is cautious about the transition from strong reality to weak expectations. Short - selling on price increases is recommended [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices declined, and the long - term oversupply situation remains. Short - selling on price increases is advisable, but avoid chasing short positions after the futures discount widens [5] - **Zinc**: Supply is expected to increase while demand weakens. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is maintained [6] - **Lead**: Lead prices are in a narrow range at the bottom. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices oscillated downward. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [8] - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded significantly. Supply may be tighter than expected, and inventory decreased. Consider reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts near 265,000 [9] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices oscillated. Inventory changes show positive market sentiment. The price decline slows, and a light - position participation in the oscillatory rebound is suggested [10] - **Polysilicon**: The market center of gravity moved downward. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices opened higher and then retraced. Supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The market oscillated. Supply is strong and has room for growth, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate with limited rebound space [14] - **Coke**: Prices rebounded significantly. Supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices rebounded. Supply is still abundant, and the price rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Inventory decreased, but the fundamental improvement is limited. A light - position long - entry to test the rebound sustainability is recommended [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Demand is fair, and supply is decreasing. Observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Chemicals - **Urea**: Futures prices fell sharply last week. Agricultural demand is limited, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. Short - term support at integer levels should be monitored [23] - **Methanol**: Coal prices are low, and methanol supply is expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the impact of shipping restrictions in Jiangsu should be noted [24] - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and the market sentiment is weak. Enterprises are reducing prices to sell [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Polyethylene supply is supported by maintenance, but demand is in the off - season. Polypropylene demand is weak, and supply pressure is increasing [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and supply is high [27] - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated weakly. Supply increased while downstream demand decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices oscillated downward. Supply increased, and demand may weaken [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand is weak, and bottle - chip may face inventory pressure. Industry production cuts may occur [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Dalian soybean meal increased in volume last week. US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant. Attention should be paid to weather changes from June to August [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Domestic soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Weather will be a key factor for soybean prices. Overall, soybean and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations and North American weather. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, the price center may move up [36] - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybean prices rebounded slightly. Weather will be the main factor affecting prices in the medium - term [37] - **Corn**: Corn futures prices increased with reduced positions. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Pig**: Pig prices decreased over the weekend. Supply is increasing, and short - term prices may continue to fall. Medium - term supply pressure may be reduced by policy [39] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to decline further. Near - month futures should be short - sold, and far - month futures do not have the conditions for a reversal [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progress is slow, and domestic cotton demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [41] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated. International supply is expected to be negative, and domestic sugar sales are good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices oscillated. Market focus is on new - season production estimates. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [43] - **Timber**: Timber prices are weak. Supply may be limited, but demand is in the off - season. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices oscillated weakly. Inventory is relatively high, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and long - entry opportunities on significant price drops should be noted [45] Others - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price of the Europe line is rising strongly, but the US line may peak. The market should pay attention to trade negotiations, and short - selling should be cautious [19] - **Stock Index**: A - share market is lackluster, and the market is influenced by US non - farm payrolls data and trade negotiations. The market may recover if there are substantial trade progress [46] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures prices increased. The market is relatively stable, and long - entry opportunities after price drops can be considered [47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and other products is weak, with pessimistic market expectations and insufficient rebound momentum. The market rhythm is still volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal continue to decline, and there is a need to observe the sustainability of further negative feedback. The price of coking coal still has a downward driving force [4][5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have reached new lows for the year, and their prices remain weak [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is weak, with the rebar surface demand slightly increasing, production decreasing, and inventory continuing to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have both increased significantly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The demand shows certain resilience in the off-season, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The iron water production has continued to decline but remains at a relatively high level, and the negative feedback expectation continues to ferment. The market expectation is still pessimistic, and the rebound momentum of the market is insufficient [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The global shipment is fluctuating normally, and the domestic arrival volume is currently weak but is expected to rebound in the future. The port inventory has continued to decline. The terminal demand has entered the off-season, and the iron water production has gradually declined from its high level. It is expected that the short-term production reduction space for iron water is relatively limited, and steel mills have no motivation to actively replenish inventory. The iron ore supply and demand face certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. Coke - The coke price continues to decline. The iron water production has continued to fall, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The daily coke production remains at a relatively high level for the year, and the overall inventory has slightly increased. The coke price support may decline due to the downward shift in costs caused by the reduction in coking coal prices [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price continues to decline. The production of coking coal mines remains at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production. The number of shut-down mines has decreased by 1 to 17. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has continued to decline. The terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly, while the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory pressure at the production end has continued to accumulate rapidly. The trading of imported Mongolian coal has continued to weaken. The coking coal price still has a downward driving force [5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price has reached a new low for the year. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a relatively small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has remained basically flat, and the demand has remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased. The price remains weak [8]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price has reached a new low for the year. Due to the previous continuous production reduction, the inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals have slightly improved. The manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port has slightly decreased, but the long-term inventory accumulation trend has not changed. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the ferromanganese supply has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate, and the market expectation has changed. The price remains weak [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 26, the main contract of rebar futures fell below 3000 yuan/ton, hitting a new low since September 12, 2024, due to multiple factors including supply - demand, cost, and macro - economic environment. In the future, with lackluster off - season consumption, EAF steel mills may cut production, and the steel market is in a low - valuation area, presenting short - term long opportunities from oversold rebounds [3]. - Today, the A - share market rose and then fell. The three major indices (Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index) closed in the red, while the CSI 1000 closed strongly in the green. The capital flow shrank by 14.56 billion compared to last Friday, and the index continued to show a weak high - level oscillating pattern [6][7]. - Gold's internal and external markets broke through a small platform upwards, with the low on May 15 confirmed as the end of this wave of adjustment. It is expected to rise to the high on May 9. There is resistance near a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for adjustments to buy on dips instead of chasing the rise [10][11]. - In May, due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, iron ore faces large supply - surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high valuation. Technically, it hit a new low today, and a bearish oscillating view is taken [15]. - For glass, demand growth depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Currently, daily melting is at a low level, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Technically, it showed narrow - range fluctuations today, and a bearish oscillating view is taken [17][18]. - For PTA, the PX plant operating rate remains low, and major manufacturers like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong plan to conduct maintenance in May, leading to tight spot circulation. Meanwhile, the downstream polyester industry has poor demand, suppressing the PTA futures price. Technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Rebar futures price decline is due to complex supply (blast furnace production cuts but EAF restarts) and weak demand (slowdown in manufacturing investment, low real - estate sales). Cost pressure comes from falling coking coal prices and increased iron ore shipments. In the future, off - season consumption is poor, and EAF steel mills may cut production [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The A - share market was volatile today. The capital flow shrank by 14.56 billion compared to last Friday, and the index maintained a weak high - level oscillating pattern [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold broke through a small platform upwards, with the low on May 15 as the end of the adjustment. It is expected to rise to the high on May 9. Wait for dips to buy instead of chasing the rise [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - In May, iron ore has supply - surplus pressure due to reduced exports and increased shipments, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. Technically, it hit a new low, with a bearish oscillating view [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Glass demand growth depends on real - estate policies. Currently, daily melting is low, sales have improved slightly, but inventories are high, and downstream restocking motivation is weak. Technically, it showed narrow - range fluctuations, with a bearish oscillating view [17][18]. Technical Analysis - PTA - PX plant operating rate is low, and major manufacturers plan maintenance in May, causing tight spot circulation. Downstream polyester demand is poor, suppressing PTA prices. Technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are expected to rise in the short term [1][5] - Black building materials: Rebar is expected to fluctuate, iron ore is expected to be weak in oscillation, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended to wait and see, nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, tin is recommended for trading within a range, and gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][11][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to fluctuate, and soda ash is recommended to hold short call options [1][19][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen in oscillation, and PTA is expected to be weak in oscillation [1][29][30] - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are recommended to be short on rallies, corn is recommended to go long on dips, soybean meal is expected to decline in oscillation, and oils are expected to fluctuate [1][31][38] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex and volatile, with factors such as trade policies, economic data, and geopolitical issues affecting the market [5][7][11] - Different industries and varieties have different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to specific circumstances [1][5][7] - Attention should be paid to policy changes, inventory levels, and seasonal factors, and risk control should be strengthened [7][19][20] Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: The U.S. trade policy and domestic policies affect the market, and it is recommended to defend during the holiday [5] - Treasury bonds: Pay attention to the official PMI data in April, and the current interest rate trading needs to pay more attention to the safety margin [5] Black building materials - Rebar: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production restriction policies [7] - Iron ore: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the 720 pressure level [8] - Coking coal and coke: The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the changes in blast furnace hot metal production and steel mill raw material inventory digestion rhythm [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The price is expected to be strong in oscillation, and it is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [11] - Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,200 - 20,000 [13] - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to run in the range of 122,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton [15] - Tin: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range, with the reference range of 250,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 06 contract [16] - Gold and silver: The price is expected to be in an adjustment state, and it is recommended to wait for the price to fully correct before building positions, with the reference range of 760 - 802 for the SHFE gold 06 contract and 7,800 - 8,600 for the SHFE silver 06 contract [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations and the intensity of domestic stimulus policies [19] - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 05 contract and the inventory removal situation [20] - Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply situation after the start of tapping [21][22] - Urea: It is recommended to operate within a range, and the 09 contract is expected to run in the range of 1,730 - 1,850 [24] - Methanol: It is recommended to operate within a range, and the 09 contract is expected to run in the range of 2,200 - 2,350 [26] - Plastic: The price is expected to be low in oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, the subsequent impact of the Iranian port, and the tariff game [28] - Soda ash: It is recommended to hold short call options, and the price is expected to be weak in oscillation [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton: The Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see in the near term [29] - Apples: The price is expected to strengthen in oscillation, but attention should be paid to macro risks [29][30] - PTA: The price is expected to be weak in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the 4,200 support level [30] Agricultural and livestock products - Pigs: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies [31][32] - Eggs: It is recommended to be short on rallies, and the 06 contract is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [33][34] - Corn: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the 2,400 pressure level and the 2,280 - 2,300 support level for the 07 contract [34][36] - Soybean meal: It is recommended to be short on rallies in the short term and long on dips in the long term, and attention should be paid to the 2,900 support level [36][37] - Oils: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, and attention should be paid to the 7,800 - 8,000, 8,300 - 8,400, and 9,600 pressure levels [38][43]