1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is no driving force, and the market shows a weak and volatile pattern. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about environmental protection speculation in winter. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside space for industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to buy long - term contracts during peak seasons at low prices. The price trend of industrial silicon is also closely related to the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, production cuts on the supply side due to environmental protection constraints or rising costs, and the expected production cuts on the demand side due to weak terminal sales. The industry has expectations for eliminating backward production capacity, but due to the large number of private enterprises and scattered layout in the industrial silicon industry, there is a lack of confidence in effective capacity clearance through industry self - regulation. - Electricity costs account for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect electricity costs and then industrial silicon prices. In December, the operating rate of industrial silicon producers is expected to decline. Downstream, the polysilicon industry is reducing production, the silicone monomer plants have maintenance plans, and only the aluminum alloy industry maintains a stable operating rate [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Logic - Near - term trading logic (before the end of 2025): Environmental protection disturbances, and expected production cuts on both the supply and demand sides. - Long - term trading logic (after early 2026): The progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, and continuous attention to demand [4]. 3.1.3 Industrial Operation Suggestions - Sales management: For enterprises planning to produce industrial silicon in the future and worried about price drops during sales, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 20%. - Procurement management: For enterprises planning to produce polysilicon, silicone, or aluminum alloy in the future, if the finished product price is not correlated, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with a recommended hedging ratio of 30% and use a combined options strategy (sell put options and buy call options) with a ratio of 10%. If the finished product price is correlated, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a ratio of 20%. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high industrial silicon inventory and worried about inventory depreciation due to price drops, they can short futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (sell call options and buy put options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively [5]. 3.2 Important Information and Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On December 8, Jianghan New Materials announced that a 60,000 - ton/year trichlorosilane plant was put into trial operation in October this year, 10,000 tons of silane production capacity is planned to be put into trial operation in December, and another 10,000 tons each will be put into trial operation in mid - and late - next year. In 2027, optical fiber - grade silicon tetrachloride and electronic - grade tetraethyl orthosilicate plants will be gradually built. - On December 8, GCL Technology announced that its subsidiaries and other parties signed a partnership agreement to establish a limited partnership, which plans to acquire a 42.469% stake in Inner Mongolia Xinyuan Silicon Materials Technology Co., Ltd. from Hongyuan Green Energy and Tibet Ruihua for a total consideration of RMB 2.01 billion [6]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch No events to watch were mentioned in the report [7]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract on Friday was 8,412 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66%. The trading volume was 619,800 lots, a week - on - week increase of 113.65%, and the open interest was 460,100 lots, an increase of 19,000 lots week - on - week. The monthly spread between SI2601 and SI2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,619 lots, an increase of 1,331 lots week - on - week. - The industrial silicon weighted futures price quickly fell below the 5 - day moving average this week. The disk showed the characteristic of "short - position increase and price decline". The current price quickly fell below the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bandwidth showed signs of widening. It is necessary to focus on the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton, and from Thursday to Friday, there was a characteristic of "short - position exit and price stabilization" [10][11]. 3.3.2 Option Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been strengthening in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually expanding. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has also been strengthening. The PCR of option open interest has been rising, indicating an increasing bearish sentiment in the market [13]. 3.3.3 Term Structure Analysis - The term structure of industrial silicon futures shows a back structure, which is relatively stable. The basis of the main industrial silicon contract is at a relatively high level [17][19]. 3.3.4 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have shown different degrees of decline. The prices of industrial silicon powder have also decreased. The price of trichlorosilane and polysilicon N - type price index remained unchanged, the price of silicone DMC was stable, and the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased slightly [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit - Since hitting the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous recovery channel. The profit of the polysilicon industry is currently stable, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit of the silicone industry is recovering [23]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and operating rates of industrial silicon from different data sources showed different trends. The weekly production of some data sources increased, while others decreased. The operating rates also showed mixed trends [30]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and warehouses showed different changes [47][48][50]. 3.5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The total inventory of polysilicon increased slightly, with different changes in the inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [51][52][54]. 3.5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys decreased slightly, and the inventory of primary aluminum alloy decreased, while the inventory of secondary aluminum alloy decreased significantly [58][59]. 3.5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC decreased, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.12% [64]. 3.5.5 Terminal - The report shows the data trends of China's commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity [67].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on optimizing production capacity and expanding both domestic and international markets for high-end malt products [2] Production Capacity Optimization - The company plans to increase high-end malt production capacity, having completed two initial fundraising projects and is implementing a new 50,000 tons/year specialty malt production line to meet market demand [2] - Future capacity structure optimization and layout improvements will be arranged according to strategic development needs [2] Market Development - The company aims to consolidate its domestic market while actively exploring overseas markets, achieving a year-on-year increase in malt sales [2] - There will be a focus on expanding overseas sales opportunities to achieve a balance between domestic and international business [2] Production Operations - The company employs a coordinated production and sales model, aligning production schedules with customer demand to ensure smooth operations [2] - This model allows the company to effectively cover major regions across the country, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing logistics costs [2] Product and Service Enhancement - The company is increasing collaboration with customers and research institutions to boost the sales proportion of customized products, better meeting customer needs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global titanium dioxide industry is facing significant challenges due to a supply-demand imbalance, with production rates declining and prices remaining weak, leading to severe impacts on profitability for Western producers [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Over the past four years, the titanium dioxide industry has experienced a substantial decline in operating rates, with a forecasted drop below 70% due to an increase in production capacity outpacing demand growth [1][2]. - In 2021, the industry was still healthy, with a global demand of 7.6 million tons, a net increase of 740,000 tons from 2017, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% [1]. - However, from 2021 to 2024, demand growth slowed significantly to an average of 0.8% per year, with only a net increase of 180,000 tons, while production capacity increased by 790,000 tons, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Major Western producers have seen a drastic reduction in profitability over the past four years, with Conoco's operating profit margin dropping from 9% in 2021 to 6% in 2024, and further declining to 2% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - Similarly, Teno's operating profit margin fell from 16% to 7%, with only 1% in the first three quarters of 2025, while Chemours' titanium technology division's adjusted EBITDA margin halved from 24% to 12% [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical uncertainties have further complicated the industry's challenges, with customers reducing inventory due to these uncertainties, impacting sales and pricing structures [2]. - Conoco reported that while domestic market sales in Europe and the U.S. offset export declines, prices faced significant pressure, with a cumulative decline of 6% in the first three quarters of 2025 despite a 2% increase at the beginning of the year [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In response to the industry challenges, global titanium dioxide producers are focusing on capacity optimization and trade policy adjustments to restore supply-demand balance [3]. - Conoco has indicated that a large-scale capacity reduction process has begun, with several factories in China and Europe shutting down, and the implementation of anti-dumping taxes expected to support price recovery in 2026 [3]. - Teno's CEO noted potential demand recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025, signaling a positive outlook despite the current market conditions [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market showed a weakening trend this week. In the short - term, there is no driving force, presenting a weakening and oscillating pattern, but winter environmental protection speculation should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside space of industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to arrange long - term contracts during the peak season at low prices [1][2]. - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, the reduction of production on the supply side due to environmental protection constraints or rising costs, and the expected reduction of production on the demand side due to weak terminal shipments [1]. - The price of industrial silicon is closely related to the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving logic for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures focuses on the progress of eliminating backward production capacity, supply - side production cuts, and demand - side production reduction expectations [1]. - The optimization of production capacity in the industrial silicon industry faces resistance because it is mainly composed of private enterprises with a large number of scattered enterprises, leading to low confidence in effective production capacity clearance through industry self - discipline [1]. - Power cost accounts for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect power cost and then the price of industrial silicon. In December, there are expectations of a decline in the operating rate of industrial silicon production enterprises on the supply side, and the polysilicon industry is likely to cut production, while downstream organic silicon monomer plants have maintenance plans, with only the aluminum alloy industry maintaining a stable operating rate [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Wide - range oscillation and bottom - building [4]. - Price range: Oscillation range is 8400 - 9500; low - level range is 7000 - 8400 [5]. - Basis strategy: Wait and see [5]. 1.3 Industrial Operation Recommendations - For sales management, enterprises with plans to produce industrial silicon in the future can sell corresponding futures contracts or use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 20% to prevent price drops and profit reduction [5]. - For procurement management, enterprises with plans to produce polysilicon/organic silicon/aluminum alloy can buy corresponding futures contracts or use combination option strategies according to different situations, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 30% to prevent cost increases [5]. - For inventory management, enterprises with high industrial silicon inventories can short the main futures contract or use a combination option strategy (sell call options + buy put options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively to prevent inventory depreciation [5]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On December 2nd, Hesheng Silicon Industry announced the partial share pledge of its controlling shareholder [6]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - No relevant content provided Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the Friday closing price of the industrial silicon futures weighted index contract was 8823 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%; the trading volume was 290,100 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9.38%; the open interest was 441,100 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 59,600 lots. The month - spread of SI2601 - SI2605 was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts was 7288 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 692 lots [12]. - The industrial silicon weighted futures price gradually fell below the 60 - day moving average this week. Combining the MACD indicator signals and open interest data changes, the disk showed the characteristic of "short - position increasing and price falling" [12]. - The current industrial silicon futures price has gradually moved from the middle track to the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bandwidth has shown a certain expansion. The first support level of 8700 yuan/ton and the second support level of 8400 yuan/ton should be focused on [12]. 3.2 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been slowly weakening in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually narrowing [14]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options of industrial silicon has been oscillating and weakening in the past week [14]. - The PCR of industrial silicon option open interest has been decreasing recently, indicating that the proportion of put option open interest relative to call option open interest has decreased, and the market's bullish sentiment is gradually rising [14]. 3.3 Silicon Industry Chain Spot Data - The prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit 4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous repair channel. The profit in the southwest region has declined rapidly due to the dry season [25]. - The polysilicon industry, the core downstream demand area of industrial silicon, has stable profits, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, and the profit level of the organic silicon industry is declining [25]. Chapter 5: Fundamentals 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and operating rate data of industrial silicon from different sources (Baichuan, Steel Union, SMM) are provided, showing different trends of production and operating rate changes [32]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and forms are presented, including national, regional, and port inventories [47][48][49]. 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production data of domestic polysilicon from different sources (SMM, Baichuan) are provided, with different trends of production changes. The weekly inventory data of domestic polysilicon in different parts (total inventory, production enterprise inventory, silicon wafer enterprise inventory, etc.) are also given [51][52][54]. 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly operating rate and inventory data of primary and secondary aluminum alloys are provided, showing different trends of operating rate and inventory changes [58][59]. 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production data of organic silicon DMC are provided, showing a slight decrease in weekly production but an increase in monthly production [63]. 5.5 Terminal - The data of terminal products such as Chinese commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity are presented [66].

Core Insights - Japan's ethylene production facility utilization rate was reported at 76.2% in October, remaining below 70% for two consecutive months and below 90% for 39 months, indicating ongoing economic challenges in the sector [1] - Ethylene production in October reached 452,300 tons, a 9% year-on-year increase, attributed to the resumption of all plants after last year's maintenance [1] - The Japanese government plans to reduce the number of ethylene production facilities from 12 to 8 by around 2030 to address the low utilization rates [1] Industry Trends - The Japan Petrochemical Industry Association noted that despite structural reforms in production facilities, results have been minimal [1] - Major companies like Mitsui Chemicals, Idemitsu Kosan, and Sumitomo Chemical have announced plans to consolidate their domestic general resin businesses [1] - The association's president predicts that while a V-shaped economic recovery is unlikely in 2026, the ethylene utilization rate could reach around 80% [1] Operational Challenges - The need for stable supply in key industries like automotive is emphasized, as aging production facilities require investment to ensure reliability [1] - The president of Innospec highlighted that improving utilization rates through facility integration could enhance profitability, but stable operation of the adjusted facilities is becoming increasingly important [1] - The Japanese government has expressed its commitment to support corporate R&D and domestic investment policies to address these challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - JinkoSolar has received a prepayment of 200 million yuan for fire insurance, which is expected to positively impact its financial performance in 2025, despite ongoing challenges in profitability due to market conditions in the photovoltaic industry [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Impact - JinkoSolar's subsidiary, Shanxi Jinko Energy No. 2 Manufacturing Co., has received a total of 220 million yuan in prepayments related to a fire incident that occurred in April 2024, which damaged some equipment and assets [1]. - The insurance compensation is expected to improve cash flow and financial performance, with the final impact to be determined by audit results [1]. - The company reported a net loss of approximately 3.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting the financial pressures faced in the photovoltaic sector [1]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - JinkoSolar has officially launched the mass production of its Tiger Neo 3.0 solar module, achieving an efficiency of over 24.8% and a power output of up to 670W, with a bifacial rate of up to 90% [2]. - The company has secured contracts totaling 15GW during a recent global signing event, aligning with its strategy to optimize production capacity and enhance product competitiveness [2]. - JinkoSolar aims to focus on high-efficiency, high-power products, with a market shift expected towards products exceeding 650W, which are anticipated to have a stronger competitive edge [2]. Group 3: Energy Storage Business - JinkoSolar views its energy storage business as a crucial growth avenue, currently having a production capacity of 17GWh for storage systems and 5GWh for battery cells, with plans to exceed 30GWh by the end of 2026 [2][3]. - The company has set a target to double its energy storage system shipments to 6GWh in 2025, with over 80% expected to come from overseas markets, particularly in high-margin regions like Europe and North America [2][3]. - Despite not yet achieving profitability in its energy storage segment, JinkoSolar anticipates significant improvements in profitability as overseas orders are fulfilled and revenue is recognized in the fourth quarter and next year [3].

Group 1: Financial Impact and Insurance Compensation - Jinko Solar's subsidiary, Shanxi Jinko Energy, received an advance insurance payment of 200 million yuan related to a fire incident, totaling 220 million yuan received to date [1] - The fire incident in April 2024 caused damage to equipment and assets, and the company has accounted for the corresponding losses in its 2024 annual report [1] - The advance payment is expected to positively impact the company's performance in 2025, subject to audit results, amidst ongoing financial pressure with a net loss of approximately 3.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - Jinko Solar's Tiger Neo 3.0 module has officially entered mass production, achieving an efficiency of over 24.8% and a power output of up to 670W, with a bifacial rate of up to 90% [2] - The company secured contracts totaling 15GW during a global signing event, aligning with its strategy to optimize production capacity and upgrade efficiency [2] - The company aims to enhance competitiveness through technological iteration and capacity optimization in a highly competitive market [1][2] Group 3: Energy Storage Business Outlook - Jinko Solar views its energy storage business as a crucial second growth curve, currently having a capacity of 17GWh for storage systems and 5GWh for battery cells, with plans to exceed 30GWh by the end of 2026 [2][3] - The company targets a shipment goal of 6GWh for energy storage systems in 2025, with over 80% expected to come from overseas markets, particularly high-margin regions like Europe and the U.S. [2][3] - Despite not being profitable in the first three quarters, the company anticipates significant improvement in profitability due to large-scale overseas order deliveries in the fourth quarter and next year [3]

Core Insights - The company, Hars, is optimistic about the domestic cup and kettle market, noting that the current CR4 is below 20%, indicating significant brand landscape benefits [3] - Hars has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a specific issuance of A-shares in 2023, planning to proceed based on market conditions [3] Group 1: Brand Strategy and Market Positioning - The collaboration with Tencent is a core brand strategy aimed at enhancing content co-creation, upgrading membership services, and driving business growth [2] - The company emphasizes the transformation from "traffic cooperation" to "value co-creation" to strengthen brand influence among Generation Z [2] Group 2: Operational Performance and Supply Chain - The company reported strong performance during this year's Double Eleven shopping festival, with continuous optimization of operational capabilities [3] - The Thai production base is in a ramp-up phase, but the company is confident in cost optimization due to local supply chain development and automation [3] Group 3: Growth Opportunities and Global Expansion - The OEM business is seeing steady growth in market share from leading clients, with non-U.S. markets (Europe, Japan, Middle East) emerging as new growth points [3] - The company aims to leverage scale and certification barriers to capture a larger share in the global supply chain restructuring [3] Group 4: Governance and Shareholder Returns - The company has established a modern corporate governance structure with clear responsibilities and stable core management [3] - A share buyback plan will be implemented based on market conditions, with specific progress to be announced monthly [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company expresses confidence in achieving significant year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by the upcoming peak season in the chemical fiber industry and the gradual production ramp-up at the new Zhuhai facility [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The Zhuhai production base is progressing steadily, which is expected to enhance the company's financial strength post-IPO in August 2025 [1] - The company's operational results will be influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, downstream demand, and raw material prices [1] - The company aims to optimize production capacity and product structure, focusing on differentiated and high-value-added areas to steadily improve its overall competitiveness [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Product Lines - The company is assessing the alignment of new production capacity release with market demand [1] - Specific product lines that will drive growth have not been detailed, but the focus remains on high-value segments [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, highlighting the potential for profit recovery and capacity optimization as key investment themes [4][5]. Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a significant recovery in profitability, with the SW Steel index rising by 24.00% in Q1-Q3 2025 and 14.19% from October 2025 to date, outperforming major indices [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated production restrictions to promote industry consolidation and the transition towards high-value, low-carbon, and intelligent production methods [2][3]. - Manufacturing and direct export demand remain resilient, supporting steel consumption despite a weak construction sector [2]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the steel sector's net profit saw a year-on-year increase of 747.63%, with a gross margin recovery to 7.59% and a net margin of 2.19% [17][21]. - The performance of the steel sector has been strong, with the SW Steel index ranking 4th among all sectors since October 2025 [1][11]. Supply-Side Policies - The introduction of differentiated production restrictions aims to eliminate inefficient capacity and enhance industry concentration [2][3]. - New policies are expected to drive the optimization of production capacity, with a focus on high-end, green, and intelligent manufacturing [3][51]. Demand-Side Dynamics - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machinery and commercial vehicles, continues to show strength, while direct exports have increased significantly, supporting steel demand [2][3]. - The construction sector remains weak, but early indicators suggest a stabilization in demand for construction steel [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading steel companies that are well-positioned to benefit from policy support and capacity optimization, such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4]. - For special steel, companies benefiting from downstream demand in automotive and energy sectors are recommended, including Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials [3]. - In the raw materials sector, companies with clear growth in non-ferrous resources, such as Dazhong Mining and Hebei Steel Resources, are highlighted [3].