Economic Recovery - The World Bank has raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from its April prediction, reflecting enhanced internal market dynamics and policy support [1][14]. Consumer Market - During the recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, key retail and catering enterprises in China reported a year-on-year sales increase of 10.5% in the first four days, indicating a vibrant consumer market [3][6]. - In Zhuzhou, Hunan, the number of customers in the Tianze Huayi clothing market increased by 30% year-on-year, with a 28% rise in purchase orders compared to the previous month [6]. Tourism and Travel - On October 1, the national railway sent a record 18 million passengers, showcasing a strong recovery in travel demand [8]. - In Kashgar, Xinjiang, the local tourism revenue reached 287 million yuan, with 396,200 visitors in the first two days of the holiday [8]. Policy Impact - The implementation of "old-for-new" policies has stimulated consumer spending, with Yunnan province reporting 205 million yuan in direct consumption driven by these initiatives [10]. - In Guangxi, the "old-for-new" program has led to sales exceeding 1 billion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of policy incentives [10]. Market Dynamics - New consumption scenarios and business models have emerged, with events like the Panda Consumption Festival in Sichuan and the "First Launch" consumption season in Changsha attracting significant consumer interest [11]. - The local life service sector saw a 150% year-on-year increase in order volume during the holiday period, indicating a robust recovery in offline consumption [11]. External Recognition - The World Bank's report highlights that the East Asia and Pacific region continues to perform better than most other parts of the world, affirming the positive momentum of China's economic recovery [14][16]. - Financial expert Wen Tianna noted that the fundamental recovery of the mainland economy and continued policy support will stabilize market confidence and enhance demand recovery [16].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic new energy vehicle market experienced significant growth in September, with most brands achieving both year-on-year and month-on-month increases in delivery volumes [1][2][3] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period is traditionally a peak season for the automotive market, supported by government policies for vehicle scrappage and trade-in incentives [1][5] - The implementation of more targeted and precise scrappage policies is expected to positively impact market expectations [1][5] Group 2: Company Performance - Leap Motor achieved a record delivery of 66,657 vehicles in September, a 97% year-on-year increase, with a total of 395,500 vehicles delivered in the first nine months of the year [2] - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 52,916 vehicles in September, becoming the second-largest seller, with strong performance from models like the AITO Wenjie [2] - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 41,581 vehicles in September, a 95% increase year-on-year, with plans to expand into the range-extended electric vehicle market [3] - NIO delivered 34,749 vehicles in September, a 64% year-on-year increase, with cumulative sales reaching 201,200 vehicles in the first nine months [3] - Ideal Auto reported a September delivery of 33,951 vehicles, a 36.8% year-on-year decline, but showed signs of recovery month-on-month [3] - Xiaomi Auto's delivery exceeded 40,000 vehicles in September, marking a historical high, with a backlog of orders indicating strong demand [4] Group 3: Policy Impact - As of September 10, 8.3 million applications for the vehicle trade-in program were submitted, indicating strong consumer interest [5] - The adjustment of trade-in policies reflects a shift from broad subsidies to more targeted support for specific groups, enhancing the efficiency of subsidy funds [5][6] - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in September is expected to reach approximately 2.15 million units, with a 6.5% month-on-month increase and a 2.0% year-on-year increase [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic home appliance market shows resilience in growth during the first half of 2025, supported by the "trade-in" policy, with the TV industry retail volume and value both increasing slightly compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the retail volume of the domestic TV industry reached 15.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the retail value was 62.5 billion yuan, showing a positive trend [1] - A total of 10 listed companies in the black home appliance sector reported a combined revenue of 102.15 billion yuan, representing a 6.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Sichuan Changhong led the revenue rankings with 56.71 billion yuan, approximately 2.08 times that of the second-ranked Hisense Visual, while the top company in other black home appliance categories, Skyworth Electronics, reported only 4.095 billion yuan [1] - The operating costs of black home appliance companies generally increased, with about two-thirds of the companies experiencing a cost growth rate higher than their revenue growth [1] Group 3: Cost and Efficiency - The operating cost as a percentage of revenue for black home appliance companies remained between 80% and 90%, with 70% of companies experiencing a decline in gross margin year-on-year [1] - *ST Gauss had an operating cost ratio as high as 96.5%, with a slight decrease in sales gross margin to 3.5% [1] - Companies like Chenyi Intelligent and Hisense Visual saw comprehensive growth in sales, management, and R&D expenses, while others like *ST Gauss and Jiulian Technology reduced both sales and R&D expenses [1] Group 4: Profitability - Hisense Visual achieved the highest net profit attributable to shareholders at approximately 1.056 billion yuan, nearly 400 million yuan higher than the second-ranked Zhao Chi Shares [1] - *ST Gauss and Jiulian Technology reported losses, marking three consecutive years of mid-year net losses [1] - Tongzhou Electronics led in sales net profit margin at 37.4%, nearly doubling compared to the same period in 2024, while *ST Gauss ranked last with a margin of -31.4% [1] Group 5: Cash Flow and Inventory - Zhao Chi Shares reported positive operating cash flow, while *ST Gauss, Tongzhou Electronics, Skyworth Digital, and others experienced net cash outflows from operating activities [1] - Approximately 60% of companies saw a year-on-year decrease in operating cash flow net amount [1] - *ST Gauss had accounts receivable turnover days exceeding 300, while Hisense Visual and Extreme Technology maintained turnover days below 30, indicating faster cash recovery [1] - Extreme Technology reported inventory turnover days of 172, significantly higher than the average of 75 days for comparable companies, attributed to preemptive stocking for promotional events [1]

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：木予 2025年1-6月，在"以旧换新"政策的助力下，国内家电市场整体量额齐升，展现增长韧性。奥维云统计数据显示，报告期内油烟机、燃气灶零售额同比分别 增长11.8%、10.1%，热水器（包括燃气热水器和电热水器）零售额仅同比增长0.8%。受精装修新开盘项目大幅减少影响，工程渠道厨卫产品销售延续下行 趋势，集成灶零售额与2024年同期相比下降27.6%，空气源热泵内销规模同比减少22.3%。 截至8月31日，A股9家厨卫电器（按申万二级行业分类）上市公司均已披露2025年半年报。据财报披露的数据统计，9家公司上半年实现总营收150.63亿元， 较2024年同期下降7.9%；归母净利润（含亏损）总和为13.57亿元，而2024年同期为17.90亿元。 | 公司名称 | समस्त्रे | 营业收入 (亿元) | 同比 (%) | 归母净利润（亿 | 同比 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | P | | | 老板电器 | 厨房电器 | 46.08 | -2.6% | 7.12 | -6.3% | | 万和 ...

Core Insights - The domestic home appliance market in China showed resilience in growth during the first half of 2025, driven by the "trade-in" policy, with an increase in both volume and revenue [1] - The small home appliance sector experienced significant internal differentiation, with kitchen appliances seeing a retail volume decline of 1.2% but a revenue increase of 9.3% [1][2] - The cleaning appliance segment saw substantial growth, with sales of robotic vacuums, floor washers, and vacuum cleaners increasing by 41.1%, 30.3%, and 10.6% respectively [1] - Personal care appliances had a mixed performance, with electric shavers and toothbrushes seeing revenue growth of 10.5% and 0.5%, while hair dryers experienced a 10.5% decline [1] Revenue and Profitability - A total of 22 listed white goods companies in A-shares reported a combined revenue of 60.909 billion yuan, a 12.1% increase from the same period in 2024, while net profit attributable to shareholders totaled 4.792 billion yuan, down from 5.103 billion yuan in 2024 [1][2] - Among kitchen appliance companies, total revenue reached 29.391 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.930 billion yuan, marking increases of 3.4% and 6.7% respectively compared to 2024 [2] - The cleaning appliance segment generated 28.360 billion yuan in revenue, with a net profit of 2.525 billion yuan, reflecting a revenue increase of 27.7% but a profit decline of 12.0% [2] - Personal care appliance companies reported a total revenue of 3.158 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.337 billion yuan, showing declines of 14.3% and 21.4% respectively [2] Company Performance - Supor led the revenue rankings with 11.478 billion yuan, significantly higher than its competitors, while Stone Technology reported a remarkable revenue growth of 79.0% [3][5] - The lowest revenue was recorded by Beikang, with only 0.115 billion yuan, which is less than the top personal care appliance company, Feike Electric [5] - Cost control remains a challenge, with many companies experiencing a rise in operating costs that outpaced revenue growth, particularly Stone Technology, which saw a 114.8% increase in costs [5][6] Profit Margins and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for many small appliance companies remained between 50%-80%, with Dechang's margin dropping to 14.0% [6] - The highest gross profit margin was held by Beikang at 62.6%, while Stone Technology's margin fell significantly due to price competition [6][12] - Operating cash flow was positive for companies like Covos and Aishida, while others like Beikang and Stone Technology reported cash outflows [15] Efficiency and R&D Investment - Companies like Feike Electric and Aishida managed to reduce their sales, management, and R&D expenses, while others like Beikang and Stone Technology saw increases across all expense categories [9] - R&D expense ratios for small appliance companies generally ranged from 2.5% to 6.0%, with Beikang leading at 9.0% [10] Inventory and Receivables Management - Companies like Fuhua and Dechang reported accounts receivable turnover days exceeding 100 days, while others like Xiaoxiong Technology had a much quicker turnover of only 13 days [17] - Rainbow Group's inventory turnover days increased significantly to 338 days, indicating potential inventory management issues [17]

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货有色（镍、不锈钢）季报 镍 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 底部区间 沪镍或震荡上行 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 9 月 28 日 ⚫ 主要结论： 行情方面，沪镍主力合约 2511，2025 年 9 月 25 日收于 122990 元/吨，本季 度镍价整体呈区间震荡走势。 宏观层面，全球央行开启降息周期，加拿大、美国、日本、美国等央行相继 公布利率决议。9 月 18 日凌晨（北京时间）的美联储降息备受市场关注：美联储 宣布降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.00%–4.25%。这是自 2024 年 9 月开启本轮降息周期以来的第四次降息，也是 2025 年内的首次降息。美联 储决策者的预测显示，2025 年将再降息 50 个基点，2026 年和 2027 年将各降息 25 个基点。美联储 19 位官员中，有 1 位官员认为 2025 年不降息，有 6 位官员认 为应累计降息 25 个基点，即降息 1 次，有 2 位官员认为应累计降息 50 个基点， 即降息 2 次，有 9 位官员认为应累计降息 75 个基点，即降息 3 次。有 1 位 ...

这些年，只要问起当前的汽车产业的重点话题是什么，价格战一定是回避不了的话题，就在最近有媒体曝出汽车价格战全面熄火的消息，当前汽车产业不卷 价格了，到底该需要卷什么呢？ 一、汽车价格战熄火了？ 据中国新闻周刊的报道，由"最高降价9万元"开启的大规模汽车价格战，至今已经延续了近两年半时间，近期终于有了逐渐冷却下来的迹象。 乘联会8月发布的数据显示，根据车企官方宣布降价或新车价格实质性突破近两年最低指导价的规则统计，今年7月有17款车型降价，较去年同期的23款和 2023年同期的17款数量，当前市场保持相对稳定。 2020-2022年1—7月的车企降价车型仅有50款左右；2023年同期，数量猛增至113款；2024年1—7月，降价车型进一步提升至147款；今年1—7月，降价新车 数量为106款。 从同期降价车型数量对比来看，进入今年以来，价格战明显缓和，而且降价促销力度也大幅降低，尤其是4月之后，降价车型数量更是大幅减少。尽管还没 有完全回归到价格战开启前的水平，但似乎已经有了"熄火"态势。 乘联会分析认为，2025年乘用车行业促销与降价均回归理性，市场秩序明显改善。 2023年3月初，湖北省拉开了汽车疯狂价格战的 ...

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.co m 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 (8621)23297818× liujl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 09 月 27 日 海尔泰国春武里空调工业园正式投 产，海信泰国智能制造工业园开工 看好 ——《2025/9/22-2025/9/26》家电周报 资料来源：iFinD，申万宏源研究 重点公司方面，海信视像（12.7%）、海信家电（7.2%）、比依股份（3.6%）领涨， 光峰科技（-8.7%）、亿田智能（-6.9%）、荣泰健康（-5.2%）领跌。 -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 光峰科技 亿田智能 荣泰健康 老板电器 火星人 浙江美大 极米科技 华帝股份 苏泊尔 公牛集团 飞科电器 海尔智家 小熊电器 奥佳华 倍轻松 新宝股份 ...

新华财经北京9月26日电（王菁）债市周五（9月26日）小幅回暖，期债表现优于现券，国债期货主力合 约全线收涨，银行间现券收益率走势稍有分化，国债基本持稳、长端国开债延续偏弱；公开市场单日净 投放4115亿元，隔夜资金利率显著回落。 机构认为，临近季末资金投放力度尚可，流动性虽不至于特别紧张但心态无法完全放松，跨月资金需求 相对较旺。本周债市多数时间震荡回调，近期机构心态分歧在明显增加。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，9月26日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1658亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量1658亿元，中标量1658亿元。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展了6000亿元14天期逆回购操作。数据显示，当日3543亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放4115 亿元。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.20%报114.190，10年期主力合约涨0.13%报107.680，5年 期主力合约涨0.06%报105.540，2年期主力合约涨0.04%报102.342。 银行间主要利率债收益率走势小幅分化，长端国开债午后偏弱，国债表现持稳。截至发稿，30年期国 债" ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 09 月 25 日 招商证券 | 总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20250921） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观-罗丹】8 月经济数据解读 【策略-田登位】十一前后融资盘的规律和 A 股股价表现 【固收-朱蕾】继续防守策略，关注中短信用 【银行-文雪阳】银行债市存量浮盈 【资配-江雨航】招商系列大类资产配置指数解析与复盘 ❑ 【宏观-罗丹】8 月经济数据解读 推荐（维持） 相关报告 | 罗丹 | S1090524070004 | | --- | --- | | luodan7@cmschina.com.cn | | | 田登位 | S1090524080002 | | tiandengwei@cmschina.com.cn | | | 朱蕾 | S1090524100001 | | zhulei1@cmschina.com.cn | | | 文雪阳 | S1090524110001 | | wenxueyang@cmschina.com.cn | | | 江雨航 | S1090525070014 | jiangyuhang1@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的 ...