Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with the peak season of the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) continuing and the supply fluctuating at a high level without a significant increase, the price of lithium carbonate has obvious support at the bottom. Considering the hedging pressure and the resumption of production in Jiangxi's mining sector, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 83,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 81,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 are 84,920 yuan/ton (-0.35%), 86,500 yuan/ton (-0.21%), 86,580 yuan/ton (-0.21%), 86,280 yuan/ton (-0.32%), and 86,140 yuan/ton (-0.44%) respectively [1]. Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 984 dollars, and the prices of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) are 1,420 yuan, 2,245 yuan, 7,880 yuan, and 9,295 yuan respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan, 25 yuan, 20 yuan, and 20 yuan [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), and ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) are 36,605 yuan, 160,250 yuan, 141,150 yuan, and 141,650 yuan respectively, with daily increases of 245 yuan, 1,000 yuan, 400 yuan, and 1,500 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3,280 yuan/ton, with a change of 960 yuan; the price spreads between the near - month and the first - continuous, and the near - month and the second - continuous contracts are - 80 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 120 yuan and 140 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 123,953 tons, with a decrease of 3,405 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other sectors (weekly, tons) are 30,715 tons (-1,336 tons), 52,008 tons (-1,280 tons), and 41,230 tons (-790 tons) respectively. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) are 28,287 tons, with an increase of 188 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 82,955 yuan, and the profit is - 815 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 86,558 yuan, and the profit is - 6,476 yuan [3].

【导读】锂电池板块强势拉升，多股涨停 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看最新的市场情况及资讯。 11月13日开盘，A股三大指数小幅低开，随后震荡拉升。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 成交量 | 换手率 | 市智率 | 总市值 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保盛期电 | 120.00 | 20.00% | 975/ | 8.19% | -131 | 191亿 413.26% | | 通科新浪 | 67.70 | 17.37% | 1544万 | 18.15% | -83.1 | 151亿 417.58% | | 新审邦 | 64.04 | 17.01% | 3893万 | 7.21% | 48.4 | 479亿 73.28% | | 大宏锂电 | 34.50 | 16.95% | 813 万 | 11.92% | 357 | 35亿 131.35% | | 五矿新能 | 8.84 | 12.33% | 6570/5 | 3.41% | -48.0 | 171亿 66.17% | | 圆克股份 | 13.85 | 11.16% | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market opened slightly lower on November 13, followed by a rebound, with the lithium battery sector and related industries experiencing significant gains [1] - In the Hong Kong market, major indices showed a downward trend, with Tencent Music dropping over 12% and other companies like JD Group and Li Auto also declining [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium mining concept stocks surged, with Huasheng Lithium Battery hitting a 20% limit up, and several other stocks like Haike New Source and Xinzhou Bang also showing strong gains [4] - The price of lithium carbonate futures has increased by 20% from October 14 to November 10, driven by high production levels in the lithium iron phosphate industry [6] - The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has skyrocketed, with some market quotes reaching 150,000 yuan per ton, doubling since mid-October due to supply-demand mismatches [6] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals stocks experienced fluctuations, with companies like Shengtun Mining and Shengda Resources seeing notable increases [7] - International precious metal futures rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.07% and silver futures up 4.90% [9]

Group 1: Price Surge of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have surged to 150,000 CNY/ton, doubling since mid-October [2][4] - The rapid price increase has led to a seller's market, with many manufacturers halting external quotes and requiring cash payments from smaller clients [4][6] - The core reason for the price surge is a mismatch between supply and demand, with explosive growth in demand from the downstream market and a contraction in supply due to the exit of many small enterprises [2][5] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - From January to September, global electric vehicle battery installations reached 811.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, while global energy storage battery shipments grew by 90.7% [5] - Effective production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate has shrunk to around 300,000 tons, with the top three manufacturers accounting for over 70% of the market [5][11] - The expansion cycle for lithium hexafluorophosphate is long and subject to high technical and environmental standards, making it difficult to increase supply in the short term [5][11] Group 3: Price Transmission to Downstream - The price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate has begun to transmit downstream, affecting the electrolyte segment, where costs account for 40%-50% of the total [6][10] - Electrolyte manufacturers have started to raise prices, with recent increases ranging from 3,000 to 5,000 CNY/ton, although this has not fully covered the cost pressures yet [6][10] - Long-term supply agreements have been signed between several battery manufacturers and major electrolyte suppliers, indicating confidence in future market conditions [9][10] Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate until 2026, with prices likely to continue rising [10][11] - Industry leaders emphasize the need for cautious expansion to avoid oversupply, advocating for a controlled growth rate of around 30% [12] - Despite the current optimism, long-term sustainability of rapid price increases is questioned, with expectations for prices to stabilize within a reasonable range that supports profitability [13][14]

Group 1: Industry Performance Overview - In the first three quarters, 540 listed chemical companies in the basic chemical sector achieved total operating revenue of 23,132.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.69%; net profit reached 1,196.75 billion yuan, up 8.69%, indicating continuous improvement in overall performance and solid steps towards high-quality development [1] Group 2: Subsector Performance - The potassium fertilizer market has seen strong performance, with four potassium fertilizer companies achieving total operating revenue of 20.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.62%; net profit reached 9.445 billion yuan, up 57.60% [2] - The refrigerant industry benefited from a sustained high demand, with five refrigerant companies reporting total operating revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.51%; net profit reached 7.446 billion yuan, up 138.04% [2] - The pesticide industry showed broad revenue growth and significant profit improvement, with 42 pesticide companies achieving total operating revenue of 164.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%; net profit reached 7.334 billion yuan, up 111.66% [3] Group 3: Challenges and Supply-Demand Imbalance - Despite some sectors performing well, supply-demand mismatches remain a major challenge for high-quality development. The carbon black industry is experiencing price declines and high costs, leading to losses for most companies [4] - The tire industry faced a decline in net profit, with six tire companies reporting total operating revenue of 31.605 billion yuan, down 3.75%; net profit fell to 0.01 billion yuan, down 559% [4] - The titanium dioxide industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with nine companies reporting total operating revenue of 45.504 billion yuan, down 11.97%; net profit decreased to 2.515 billion yuan, down 45.67% [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Future performance in the basic chemical sector is expected to continue to diverge, with positive prospects for refrigerants and potassium fertilizers. The price of mainstream refrigerant R32 is projected to reach 60,200 yuan per ton in Q4, an increase of 18.97% from Q3 [5] - The potassium fertilizer market's supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, with high prices likely to persist [5] - Conversely, the titanium dioxide and nitrogen fertilizer industries may face challenges, with predictions of oversupply in the nitrogen fertilizer market by 2025 [5]

Core Insights - The basic chemical sector's performance has shown continuous improvement, with 540 listed companies achieving a total revenue of 23,132.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.69%, and a net profit of 1,196.75 billion yuan, up 8.69% [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The potassium fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer sectors have experienced significant profit growth due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with potassium fertilizer companies reporting a revenue increase of 60.62% and a net profit increase of 57.60% [2] - The refrigerant industry has maintained a strong performance, with five companies achieving a revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, up 19.51%, and a net profit of 7.446 billion yuan, up 138.04% [2] - The pesticide industry has shown broad revenue growth and significant profit improvement, with 42 companies reporting a revenue of 164.51 billion yuan, up 6.56%, and a net profit of 7.334 billion yuan, up 111.66% [3] Group 2: Challenges and Supply-Demand Imbalance - Despite some sectors performing well, the industry faces challenges due to supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the carbon black and tire sectors, where companies have reported significant losses [4] - The tire industry has seen a revenue increase of 10.03% but a net profit decline of 18.17%, indicating a disparity in profitability among companies [4] - The titanium dioxide sector is undergoing a deep adjustment, with revenues down 11.97% and net profits down 45.67% for nine companies [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future performance in the basic chemical sector is expected to remain differentiated, with positive prospects for refrigerants and potassium fertilizers, while challenges are anticipated for titanium dioxide and nitrogen fertilizer sectors [5] - The refrigerant market is projected to see price increases, with the main product R32 reaching a long-term contract price of 60,200 yuan per ton, an 18.97% increase from the previous quarter [5] - The nitrogen fertilizer industry faces oversupply issues, with production capacity expected to exceed demand by 2025, leading to potential downward pressure on prices [5]

Core Insights - The chromium salt market has experienced a significant price increase, with a monthly rise of approximately 24% since the fourth quarter of the year [2][4] - Major players like Zhenhua Co. have raised prices multiple times, with a cumulative increase of 14,000 yuan/ton, while Sichuan Yinhe Chemical Co. announced a price hike of 5,000 yuan/ton starting November 10 [2][4] - The price surge is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand, tightening upstream resources, strict environmental regulations, and rapidly growing downstream demand [2][5] Industry Overview - Chromium is primarily found in the form of chromite, with global resources concentrated in South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Zimbabwe. China accounts for about 45% of the world's chromium salt production [3] - As of November 11, the price of metallic chromium reached 83,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 38% [4] - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to worsen, with projections indicating a shortfall of over 70,000 tons for chromium and 300,000 tons for chromium salts by 2028, representing a gap of over 30% [5] Company Developments - Zhenhua Co. is actively participating in the bankruptcy restructuring of Xinjiang Shenhong Group and other companies, investing 200 million yuan to acquire 100% equity post-restructuring [6] - The restructuring aims to enhance Zhenhua's business channels and promote the integration and upgrade of the chromium salt industry towards higher quality and efficiency [6] - Zhenhua Co. is currently the largest producer of chromium chemicals and vitamin K3 globally, positioning itself to capitalize on industry opportunities [6]

新华财经北京11月11日电（吴郑思） 短期碳酸锂的强需求逻辑难被证伪，驱动上周强势拉涨的碳酸锂 10日跳空高开并继续大幅拉涨，单日涨超7%。11日碳酸锂继续惯性走高，盘中高点触及88000元/吨上 方，继续逼近90100元／吨的年度高点。近五个交易日碳酸锂累计最大涨幅超10000元。 碳酸锂下游乃至终端行业的数据，也印证了需求的强劲表现。作为动力需求的典型代表，新能源汽车的 产销数据被普遍作为具有代表性的指标。乘联分会的最新数据显示，10月全国新能源乘用车批发销量达 到162.1万辆，同比增长18.5%，环比增长8.5%；同期新能源乘用车生产达到165.7万辆，同比增长 19.8%，环比增长10.2%。 不仅新能源汽车维持强劲增长势头，储能需求旺盛带动相关企业订单大增，更是成为近期市场关注的焦 点。受益于国内政策的积极推动、全球性需求的爆发，储能成为锂电需求新的增长极，甚至被视为推动 碳酸锂行业"冬去春来"的重要力量。 据SMM统计，今年前三季度，中国动力电芯累计产量达861.04GWh，同比增长45.6%。同期储能电芯产 量为355.1GWh，同比增长57.5%。产量激增的背后也受到订单需求的有力支持，有头 ...

专题报告 2025-11-11 纯碱：供需错配与成本重塑 黑色研究员 报告要点： 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-233751212 langzj@wkqh.cn 当前，纯碱行业正经历供需格局的根本性转变。在供给端，过去几年的产能扩张大周期导致供 应量显著提升，而下游关键的玻璃行业却持续面临需求压力，房地产市场低迷与光伏玻璃增速 放缓共同加剧了供需失衡的局面，行业库存高企，价格承压。 陈逸（联系人） 黑色研究员 与此同时，成本支撑也在持续下移。一方面，主要原料原盐、液氨及煤炭价格均处于长期低位， 致使氨碱法等传统工艺的生产成本同比大幅下滑。另一方面，更具成本优势的天然碱新增产能 不断投放，其低廉的成本正系统性重塑行业成本曲线。 供需矛盾与成本坍塌共同作用，导致纯碱行业陷入"戴维斯双杀"困境，短期内价格预计仍将 维持弱势震荡。 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375135 cheny40@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 黑色建材研究 | 纯碱 供需失衡及成本下移共同推动纯碱下跌 纯碱是基础无机化工原料，被誉为"工业之母"。其主要生产工艺包括氨碱法、联碱法和天然碱法。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Electrolyte Industry Chain Update Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) market and its supply chain dynamics, particularly in the context of the battery manufacturing industry [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends - LiPF6 prices surged significantly in the second half of 2025, with an increase of 40%-50% from early October to the end of November, reaching approximately 130,000 yuan per ton [1][3]. - The price is expected to continue rising in the first half of 2026, potentially reaching 200,000 yuan per ton [1][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall market demand for LiPF6 is projected to be 350,000 tons in 2026, while effective production capacity is expected to reach 438,000 tons, indicating a potential supply gap in the first half of the year [4][6]. - Battery manufacturers are optimistic about production in 2026, with total capacity expected to grow by 30% to 2,900 GWh, leading to increased demand for LiPF6 [1][6]. Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels across the supply chain are critically low, with most companies maintaining only about a week’s worth of stock, which exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance [1][7]. - The rapid price increases have hindered companies from building up inventory, particularly affecting smaller electrolyte manufacturers [2][7]. Negotiation Challenges - Electrolyte manufacturers are struggling to pass on rising costs to downstream customers, leading to reduced order intake from smaller firms [2][30]. - Major companies like Tianqi Materials and Sinoma have stronger bargaining power, allowing them to negotiate better terms [2][30]. Cost Structures - Leading LiPF6 producers have production costs ranging from 51,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, while second-tier companies face higher costs around 58,000 yuan per ton [11]. - High-cost production capacity requires LiPF6 prices to remain above 80,000 yuan per ton to justify restarting operations, with a recovery period of 3-6 months [12]. Future Production Capacity - New production capacity is expected from major players, with Tianqi Materials adding 30,000-35,000 tons and other companies contributing to a total effective capacity of around 430,000 tons in 2026 [13]. Market Structure and Pricing Mechanisms - The market is characterized by a mix of long-term contracts and spot orders, with long-term agreements currently priced between 80,000 and 100,000 yuan [14]. - The pricing mechanism for LiPF6 involves negotiations based on market averages, with larger firms able to secure better pricing terms compared to smaller competitors [9][19]. VC and FEC Market Insights - The VC (Vinyl Carbonate) market is experiencing tight supply, with prices around 70,000 yuan, while FEC (Fluoroethylene Carbonate) prices remain stable due to sufficient supply [20][23]. - The VC industry is highly concentrated, with major players controlling significant market shares, which influences pricing and supply dynamics [15]. Additional Important Insights - The overall electrolyte market is under pressure due to rising raw material costs, with many smaller manufacturers unable to sustain operations without passing costs to customers [30][31]. - The anticipated supply-demand mismatch in the first half of 2026 could lead to further price increases for LiPF6, driven by strong demand from battery manufacturers [24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the lithium hexafluorophosphate market and its implications for the broader battery manufacturing industry.