晨报 煤焦 煤焦：需求阶段性承压 价格震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 26 日 逻辑：昨日，上海发布楼市"沪七条"进一步调减住房限购政策，刺 激地产相关板块情绪走强，煤焦钢期价悉数收涨。另据 Mysteel 消息，华 北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国重要会议期间临时自主减排通知，要求企 业在 3 月 4 日—3 月 11 日执行阶段性减排管控，高炉负荷按不低于 30% 比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况，制定专项 减排执行方案，按要求上报备案，减排消息 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力低开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短 期震荡，压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量昨日增 38.6 万手，持仓量较昨日增 32787 手；日内最高 1073，最低 1049，收盘 1064，（较 昨日结算价）涨 16 元/吨，涨幅 1.53%。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季）的博弈，高库存是盘面反弹的最大压力。中期来看，因商品 房销售暂未出现明显好转，玻璃需求预期仍然偏弱。节前部分产线冷修，产能收 缩，供需格局略有改善。而随着 3 月重要会议临近，关注市场对宏观预期以及北 方主产地环保的影响。但往上空间若想打开仍需房产企稳。短期而言，预计维持 震荡运行。关注后期房产政策以及主产地产线检修情况。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 纯碱：主力合约今日高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短期震 荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨线附近，支撑关注日 ...

据新浪财经，VLCC（极大型原油船）迎来春节期间最强运价表现：截至2月20日，克拉克森VLCC- TCE指数达14.6万美元/天，周环比+24%、月环比+42%；TD3C-TCE（中东-中国）、TD22（美湾-中 国）分别突破15.7、10.1万美元/天，创下有统计以来春节历史同期的最强表现。 三是合规贸易需求提升，欧盟对俄罗斯石油海上服务禁令提议、印度减少俄罗斯原油进口等，推动合规 原油贸易流重构，运输距离增加带动吨海里需求提升，克拉克森预计2026年VLCC合规贸易需求潜在增 幅可达6%。 展望后市，短期地缘风险与运力紧张格局仍将支撑运价高位运行；中期来看，克拉克森预计2026年 VLCC运力增速仅2.8%，显著低于合规需求增速，供需错配格局将持续，行业高景气度具备持续性。 落脚到A股市场，该事件主要聚焦于油运产业链的结构性机会，核心逻辑是运价暴涨带动相关企业盈利 预期大幅改善。VLCC运输龙头企业直接受益于运价高位运行，业绩弹性显著；油运产业链上下游，船 舶制造板块将受益于新船订单需求释放，港口航运板块间接受益于原油运输活跃度提升。（光大证券微 资讯） 一是地缘风险推升溢价，美伊地缘局势持续紧张，霍尔木 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力高开震荡，收十字星。120 分钟布林带走开口喇叭，短期震 荡偏弱，压力关注布林带中轨线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量较节前减 590 手，持仓量较节前增 79844 手；日内最高 1060，最低 1037，收盘 1050，（较上 一交易日结算价）跌 6 元/吨，跌幅 0.57%。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季）的博弈，高库存是盘面反弹的最大压力。中期来看，因商品 房销售暂未出现明显好转，玻璃需求预期仍然偏弱。目前市场也处于传统需求淡 季，整体市场交投情绪清淡。节前部分产线冷修，产能收缩，供需格局略有改善。 但往上空间若想打开需得房产企稳。短期预计维持震荡运行。关注后期房产政策 以及产线检修情况。 纯碱的核心矛盾是供强需弱导致的库存持续累积，行业供需错配格局未改善。 目前重碱需求一般，轻碱需求较好一定程度上对冲重碱需求的减量，但整体还是 过剩格局延续。目前行业持续亏损，下方面临较强成本支撑。同时随着节后资金 回流，节前主动减仓的资金重新进场，今日价 ...

当金银铜的价格在狂欢中屡创新高，资金已经开始寻找下一个洼地。 2月22日，长江证券发布了一份长达42页的深度策略报告，抛出了一个极其直白的问题：资源大时代，下一个战略品种在哪里？ 以往，大宗商品价格一涨，企业就会加码建厂扩产，最后产能过剩、价格崩盘。 但现在，时代变了。 长江证券指出，在当下的宏观环境中，"逆全球化地缘主义掣肘出海+双碳管控，催生第二类稀缺资源"。 第二，全球性。需求遍布全球，受益于全球降息和补库周期。 海外降息范式下，金融流动性逐步传导至实体经济修复，全球制造业需求企稳复苏，大宗轮动周期一般为"有色-化工原油"，后续品种空间 值得期待。 第三，最关键的一点，价格在低位，利润高弹性。 换句话说，哪怕现在利润再高，你想扩产也扩不了。 哪些行业正在变成这种"第二类稀缺资源"？报告点名了四个领域：电解铝、化工石化、航空、油运。 它们的共同特征非常明显： 第一，战略性。要么是中国拥有绝对定价权，要么是美国的高精尖垄断产业。 一类是中国具备"全产业链和成本优势"的制造业，并且"成功攫取上游海外原料和下游出口海外两端利润"，形成"供给定价权"的战略制造 （电解铝、化工&石化、油运等）；另一类是美国部分高精 ...

骏马追风，春鼓催程。回望2025年，资本市场打开了崭新的篇章。市场绝大部分指数都在年内实现了上 涨，投资者的热情与关注度不断上升。同时，代表经济转型方向的新消费、科技创新等行业在年内大放 异彩，给投资者带来了高昂的回报，这也坚定了投资者后续继续通过资本市场享受经济发展红利的信 心。 （文章来源：中国基金报） 展望2026年，我们认为今年从多个维度都值得期待。首先还是宏观经济层面，我们认为整个经济基础在 不断夯实，新的创新点在不断萌发。投资者可能要摈弃过去长期传统观察经济的方法论，投资拉动增速 的时代已逐渐落幕；后续整体增长依赖的是能效以及质量的提升，同时科技进步对于很多传统行业的重 塑与改善可能也需要投资者及时更新自己的信息库。 作为经济趋势的一个表象反映，资本市场在未来也将起到各位重要的作用。过去全社会核心资产主要是 以房地产为基础的基建项目，而投资拉动盈利的模式决定了资产价格的上涨更多依赖持续的融资，这就 导致现金流状况很差，从而使得边际投资回报率在后期难以维系；这也是过去资本市场长期以融资扩大 资产负债表规模为增长来源，投资者更喜欢在周期化的投资周期内做高抛低吸的交易。而当经济增长从 注重速度转向注重质 ...

1月底至2月初，美国、印度相继正式将焦煤列为"关键矿产资源"，引发了市场对全球炼焦煤资源价值的重估。 2月4日，一则关于"印尼将暂停煤炭出口"的消息引发市场广泛关注。上周五，印尼能源与矿产资源部证实，目 前的情况是尚未正式批准煤炭生产商2026年的工作计划与预算，而非立即停止出口。根据惯例，印尼政府通常 在每年3月底前完成上半年出口配额的审批，且年中还可能进行调整。因此，市场所担忧的"出口锐减"局面，目 前仍存在较大不确定性。 从供应端看，国内焦煤市场供应在节前维持相对高位，但受春节假期影响，已进入季节性减产阶段。随着假期 临近，煤矿陆续安排放假，减产范围正逐步扩大。截至2月6日，523家样本矿山炼焦煤开工率为86.67%，环比 回落2.46个百分点；原煤日均产量192.53万吨，环比下降万吨；精煤日均产量75.45万吨，环比减少1.62万吨。整 体来看，产地供应将持续收缩。 图为523家样本矿山精煤日均产量 进口方面，蒙古与澳大利亚的煤炭呈现结构性分化，整体供应压力仍存但结构有所调整。受盘面升水影响，蒙 煤进口量维持高位。供应持续宽松导致部分口岸库存累积。与蒙煤形成对比的是，澳大利亚优质炼焦煤资源仍 显紧俏 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of various ETFs, highlighting the resilience of the chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors amidst market fluctuations [5][19]. Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have percentile PE ratios of 98.89%, 91.35%, and 46.11% respectively, indicating a high valuation environment [1]. - The chemical ETF (516020) increased by 2.37%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) rose by 0.18%, showcasing sector resilience [17][19]. Sector Performance - The top three sectors with net inflows include: - Electric Power Equipment: 2.522 billion - Basic Chemicals: 2.065 billion - Machinery: 0.805 billion [2][11] - The sectors with the highest net outflows are: - Communication: -4.440 billion - Media: -4.133 billion - Computers: -3.133 billion [2][11]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs showed notable performance: - Chemical ETF: 2.37% increase, with a 6-month performance of 44.66% [14]. - Green Energy ETF: 1.51% increase, with a 6-month performance of 35.35% [14]. - New Materials ETF: 1.32% increase, with a 6-month performance of 38.61% [14]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF has been identified as part of a long-term investment strategy, with expectations of high profitability lasting 3-5 years due to supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic support [19]. Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Securities continues to favor investment opportunities in the chemical sector, recommending focus on leading companies and price recovery products [19]. - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to maintain high profitability driven by macroeconomic factors and industry upgrades [19].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to 4065 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.73%. Market focus was on the mining, oil, and fluorine chemical sectors [1]. High-Performing Stocks - The oil and gas sector saw significant activity, with Intercontinental Oil and Gas achieving 7 consecutive daily limits, and Kailong High-Tech recording 3 consecutive limits due to mergers and acquisitions. Mingdiao Co. and Hangdian Co. also performed well, with 5 limits over 6 days [2][3]. - Notable stocks included: - STRE: +45.04% to 2.71, 8 limits in 10 days [3] - Baichuan Co.: +9.97% to 11.14, 5 limits in 8 days [3] - Mingdiao Co.: +10.01% to 30.65, 5 limits in 6 days [3] - Hangdian Co.: +10.03% to 13.71, 5 limits in 6 days [3] - Kailong High-Tech: +20.01% to 34.30, 3 limits in 3 days [3] Trading Activity - The top net purchases on the daily leaderboard were by Enjie Co. (6.1 billion), Intercontinental Oil and Gas (3.8 billion), and Shanshan Co. (3.13 billion) [4]. - The top net sales were by Jushi Co. (2.15 billion), Zhejiang Wenyi (1.4 billion), and Shandong Haohua (1.01 billion) [5]. Industry Insights - The lithium battery industry is entering a "proactive replenishment" phase, with a significant recovery expected by 2026. This is driven by high demand from AI and energy storage, while supply is constrained due to reduced capital expenditures [10]. - Enjie Co. is focusing on solid-state battery materials, with production capabilities for high-purity lithium sulfide and solid electrolyte membranes already established. The company anticipates a net profit of 1.09 billion to 1.64 billion for 2025, driven by increased sales and stable prices [11]. Company Developments - Tianji Co. is maintaining full production and sales of lithium hexafluorophosphate, with a production capacity of 37,000 tons per year. The company is also collaborating with leading clients like CATL and BYD to ensure capacity utilization [17][18]. - Shenjian Co. achieved a daily limit with a trading volume of 44.46 billion, indicating strong market interest [19]. Summary of Key Stocks - Enjie Co. and Tianji Co. both reached daily limits, reflecting strong investor confidence and market activity. Enjie Co. had a net institutional purchase of 1.80 billion, while Tianji Co. saw a net purchase of 1544.56 million [12][19].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The supply rigidity of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum has become evident after the capital expenditure contraction and inventory destocking from 2022 to 2024, while three demand engines—AI computing infrastructure, global grid transformation, and new energy installations—are accelerating simultaneously [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is currently at a dual driving node of "supply-demand mismatch" and "monetary credit reconstruction," transitioning from "cost support" to "demand pull" [1] Group 2: Fund Structure and Features - The C share class of public funds has emerged as a significant tool for asset allocation, differing from traditional A shares by offering "no subscription fee + daily calculated sales service fee," optimizing cost efficiency for specific investment scenarios [1] - C shares have a linear relationship between holding costs and holding time, contrasting with the tiered decreasing model of A shares, making them particularly suitable for investors with high liquidity requirements or short-term market cycle judgments [2] Group 3: Cost Comparison and Flexibility - For example, with a purchase amount of 100,000 yuan, the A share incurs a subscription fee of 1.0%, resulting in a cost of 1,000 yuan regardless of whether held for 3 months or 3 years, while the C share's annual sales fee of 0.4% results in a cost of only 200 yuan for a six-month holding period [2] - C shares allow for quick entry and exit without redemption fee penalties after holding for 7 or 30 days, unlike many A shares that require a holding period of 2 years to waive redemption fees, making C shares advantageous in volatile markets [4] Group 4: Performance and Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector is known for its "king of cycles" status, characterized by significant price volatility and strong phase-based trends, aligning well with the C share's "low threshold, high liquidity, daily pricing" mechanism [5] - The ETF covering the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from a "super cycle," with a significant weight in copper (34.2%) and aluminum (14.6%), indicating a robust structure for capitalizing on industrial metal bull markets [7] - The C share of the ETF has shown a remarkable return rate of 171.24% over the past two years, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.73, indicating effective risk-return management [7]