压紧压实责任 注重细节管理 为人民群众营造安定祥和节日环境 胡昌升调研检查安全生产、保供稳价并走访慰问 12月30日，元旦假期来临之际，省委书记、省人大常委会主任胡昌升在兰州调研检查安全生产、民生商品保供稳价和节日消费等工 作，走访慰问全国先进工作者、老党员和基层一线工作人员，向全省人民致以节日祝福。新甘肃·甘肃日报记者 孟捷 新甘肃客户端兰州12月30日讯（新甘肃·甘肃日报记者 崔亚明）元旦假期来临之际，省委书记、省人大常委会主任胡昌升今天在兰州调 研检查安全生产、民生商品保供稳价和节日消费等工作，走访慰问全国先进工作者、老党员和基层一线工作人员，向全省人民致以节 日祝福。他强调，要深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，全面贯彻落实习近平总书记视察甘肃重要讲话重要指示精神，坚持以人 民为中心的发展思想，纵深推进主动创安主动创稳，以"时时放心不下"的责任感履职尽责，用心用情做好元旦期间惠民生、保供应、 促消费、护稳定等工作，确保全省人民度过欢乐平安祥和的节日。 责任编辑：杨晨雨 在兰州汽车新东站，胡昌升现场检查旅客进站安检、班线运力调度及车辆安全保障等情况，并与司乘人员、旅客和安检人员交流。他 强调，元旦假期人 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The domestic monoammonium phosphate market is transitioning from a cost-driven price increase to a high-level consolidation under strong policy guidance, influenced by policy regulation, cost support, and demand dynamics [1][5] - Policy measures include a combination of export control, supply stabilization, and raw material adjustment, aimed at stabilizing market fluctuations and preventing drastic price changes [1][5] - The export suspension policy effectively locks domestic resources, alleviating supply pressure before the spring plowing season, while mandatory operational rates ensure stable market circulation [1][5] Group 2: Cost Factors - There is still support from the cost side, but different raw material trends have shown divergence, with overall stability and slight easing [2][6] - Phosphate rock companies have ample orders, but regional supply constraints are prominent, particularly in Guizhou and Hubei, leading to tight overall supply and stable prices [7] - Sulfur prices remain high, with limited import volumes expected in January 2026, while domestic prices may see slight adjustments due to policy guidance [7] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand side exhibits a "short-term weakness + medium-term support" characteristic, with the focus of negotiations on procurement timing and price expectations [2][7] - As of December 19, the compound fertilizer industry's capacity utilization has dropped to 37.75%, the lowest in five years, with many companies having sufficient inventory for short-term production needs [8] - The observed demand weakness is not indicative of a complete demand shrinkage but rather a postponement based on policy and price expectations, suggesting potential recovery as the spring planting season approaches [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern, with policy price constraints and rigid cost support creating a balance [4][9] - Future market direction will depend on three core variables: raw material price trends, demand release timing, and the effectiveness of policy implementation [4][9] - Downstream compound fertilizer companies may continue to adopt a just-in-time purchasing model to avoid high inventory costs, while raw material price fluctuations could impact market sentiment [9]

Core Insights - The recent surge in sulfuric acid prices, with a cumulative increase of 63.9%, is primarily driven by rising sulfur raw material prices and supply constraints [1][2] - As of late December, sulfur prices have begun to decline, leading to price reductions in sulfuric acid in key production areas [1][2] Group 1: Price Dynamics - Sulfur prices have significantly increased, reaching a peak of over 4200 yuan in mid-December, marking a 130% rise since the beginning of the year [2] - The domestic sulfuric acid market has seen a price increase due to the rising costs of sulfur and sulfur iron ore, which have provided strong cost support [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Domestic sulfuric acid production has been affected by maintenance shutdowns, with approximately 21.38 million tons of annual processing capacity undergoing repairs [2] - Export orders for sulfuric acid have been robust, with exports increasing by 90.69% year-on-year, while imports have decreased by 23.21% [2] Group 3: Industry Response and Policy Measures - In response to rising sulfur prices, a meeting was held to stabilize sulfuric acid prices and prioritize domestic supply, leading to a reduction in export volumes [4][5] - The industry is shifting towards a collaborative approach to ensure supply stability, with encouragement for long-term purchase agreements between sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer producers [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the sulfuric acid market will experience a period of price stabilization and supply prioritization, with a potential return to more reasonable price levels [7] - Despite a slight decline in sulfur prices, the overall cost support from sulfur iron ore remains strong, limiting the downward price movement of sulfuric acid [7]

元旦临近，昆明市节日市场供应充足，价格总体平稳，消费氛围浓厚。市内各大农贸市场、超市内，果 蔬、粮油等各类商品琳琅满目。为保障市场，相关部门全力做好保供稳价工作，加强对重要民生商品市 场的监管，做好销售价格监测，保障民生物资充足供给、有序流通、价格稳定。图为12月27日昆明大观 篆新农贸市场内，市民有序选购商品。本报记者 杨峥 陈飞 摄 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：利好有限，基本面弱稳 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 23 日 2025 年 12 月 23 日，尿素仓单数量 10532 张，环比上个交易日-349 张，其 中，嘉施利平原（云图控股 UR）-100 张，眉山新都（云图控股 UR）-300 张，辽 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 宁化肥（爱普控股 UR）-215 张，辽宁化肥+21 张， 吉林宇源（中农控股 UR） +250 张，衡水棉麻-5 张。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货报价稳定，主要以前期订单发送为主。山东、河南及河北 尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1610-1700 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低 端，河北工厂报价偏高端。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开高走，日内上涨。现货报价稳定，主要以前期订 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日 尿素周报： 供应压力不减，内需支撑乏力 摘要： 上周受印标刺激反弹。现货市场来看，周内印标刺激市场情 绪，现货出现火爆现象，部分工厂出现停售，情绪退却后由于前期订单 充足，依旧挺价。周末以来，现货报价以稳为主，但新单成交不佳。基 本面来看，气头装置减产速度趋于放缓，供应未造成明显的缩量，宽松 压力没有缓解。农业需求处于淡季，复合肥冬储生产提供需求支撑，近 期相关单位召开保供稳价专题会议，释放未来原料供应及价格的预期， 经销商情绪偏谨慎，原料价格偏高，但保供稳价政策下，后续继续冲高 概率低，政策明确后预计后续供应生产节奏平稳运行，目前开工同比去 年偏低位，冬储继续推进，工厂对原料端需求有韧性，且目前以高氮复 合肥生产为主，对尿素支撑虽无向上驱动力，但维持刚性。本期尿素库 存继续去化但主要集中于冬储东北华北地区，其他地区如主产销区有累 库趋势，近期下游需求无明显增量，而气头装置检修速度放缓，预计去 库幅度收窄。上周移仓换月至 05 合约，尿素价格受印标刺激反弹，目 前暂无出口新政策的发布，且基本面环比转弱，尿素反弹预计动力不足。 现货市场动态 投资 ...

由于供应增速远超需求增速，今年以来，国内尿素期、现货价格震荡偏弱运行。进入四季度，尿素期货 主力合约一度创下五年新低，现货价格跌破部分企业生产成本线。 展望2026年，业内普遍认为，尿素市场产能过剩情况不容乐观，价格或延续承压运行，不过，在"反内 卷"等政策推动下，化工行业或将迎来周期拐点。同时，出口政策变动也将引发尿素价格阶段性波动。 供应远超需求 尿素市场延续弱势运行 2025年国内尿素市场整体价格重心较2024年下移，具体呈现倒"V"字走势，尿素主力连续合约在上半年 触及1931元／吨的高点后，下半年盘面承压回调，反复探底，最低触及1577元／吨的5年新低。 现货价格同样来到近几年的低位水平，全年波动幅度明显收窄。卓创资讯数据显示，今年尿素现货价格 年度波动幅度基本位于-2%至2%区间，年内价格高、低点均处于近五年的最低水平。截至12月18日，12 月国内尿素市场均价1712.58元／吨，同比下跌5.88%。 在受访业内人士看来，由于供应增速远超需求增速，低产销、高库存的状态长期维持，是尿素价格持续 走弱的主要原因。 据卓创资讯预计，2025年中国尿素产能将达到8080万吨，较2024年增加4.65%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association focuses on stabilizing supply and prices in the sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer industries to ensure stable fertilizer supply and pricing before the spring farming season, thereby reinforcing the agricultural input security for national food safety [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - Global sulfur resource supply is tight, leading to a significant price increase, with imported sulfur prices rising over 230% this year, reaching over 4100 yuan/ton at one point [1]. - As of December 11, the average domestic sulfur price hit a yearly high, with solid sulfur averaging 3936.88 yuan/ton (up 169.59% year-on-year) and liquid sulfur at 3992.75 yuan/ton (up 161.61% year-on-year) [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Measures - Export control measures require sulfuric acid exporters to prioritize domestic market needs and reduce export volumes, with any necessary exports priced no lower than domestic prices [2]. - Price control measures set December 11 prices as a baseline, prohibiting smelting acid producers from raising prices arbitrarily to ensure market stability [2]. - Sulfur companies are encouraged to establish an independent pricing system based on the domestic market to avoid significant fluctuations tied to international market prices [2]. Group 3: Industry Responsibilities - The sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer industries are urged to recognize the importance of food security and fertilizer supply, enhancing their sense of responsibility and prioritizing supply stabilization efforts [2]. - The China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association are tasked with industry self-regulation, monitoring, and implementing supply stabilization measures, including promoting long-term purchase agreements between upstream and downstream companies [2]. Group 4: Technological Development - To alleviate sulfur resource supply pressure, the meeting discussed promoting phosphogypsum-based sulfuric acid production technology and coordinating supportive policies [3]. - Approximately 90 million tons of phosphogypsum are produced annually in China, with 1 ton of phosphogypsum capable of producing 0.45 tons of sulfuric acid, which could significantly supplement domestic sulfur supply if scaled effectively [3]. - Leading companies like Guizhou Phosphate Group and Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. are advancing the application of phosphogypsum-based sulfuric acid technology, with some projects already operating stably for years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The sulfur price surge has prompted the phosphate fertilizer and sulfuric acid industries to collaborate on supply stabilization and price control in preparation for the upcoming spring farming season [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Response - On December 18, a special meeting was held by the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association to stabilize the fertilizer supply chain [2]. - The meeting called for sulfuric acid export companies to reduce export volumes and set export prices no lower than domestic prices [2]. - The meeting was guided by the National Development and Reform Commission and involved all sulfuric acid, sulfur, sulfur iron ore production companies, and phosphate fertilizer producers [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - As of December 11, the domestic prices for sulfuric acid ranged from 850 to 1000 CNY/ton in Central China, 820 to 880 CNY/ton in Southwest China, and 940 to 1010 CNY/ton in East China [2]. - Following the meeting, some sulfuric acid producers began to lower their prices, with Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co. reducing its price by 10 CNY/ton to 913 CNY/ton [3]. - The price of sulfur has recently exceeded 4000 CNY/ton, marking a historical high compared to a low of less than 1000 CNY/ton in the second half of last year [4]. Group 3: Cost Implications - The rising sulfur prices have significantly increased production costs for phosphate fertilizers, with estimates indicating that every 100 CNY/ton increase in sulfur price raises phosphate fertilizer production costs by approximately 45 CNY/ton [8]. - Leading phosphate fertilizer company Yuntianhua reported that the cost of producing one ton of phosphate fertilizer has risen by around 1000 CNY due to the increase in sulfur prices, leading to thin profits or even losses for some companies [8]. Group 4: Supply Chain Dynamics - China relies on imports for over 50% of its sulfur, making domestic prices closely tied to international market trends [7]. - The global supply of sulfur is tightening due to production cuts in major oil-producing regions and a shift of Russia from an exporter to a net importer of sulfur [10]. - The Chinese government is implementing policies to prioritize domestic supply of sulfuric acid to support the phosphate fertilizer industry, which is crucial for agricultural stability [14]. Group 5: Industry Initiatives - Several phosphate fertilizer companies, including Yuntianhua and Xiangyun Co., have initiated supply and price stabilization proposals since December 9 [16]. - The China Agricultural Production Materials Circulation Association and the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association have recommended maintaining high operating rates for phosphate fertilizer producers and have advised against exports until August 2026 [16]. - China accounts for 30% of global phosphate fertilizer production, maintaining its position as the largest producer [16].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association focuses on stabilizing supply and prices in the sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer industries to ensure stable fertilizer supply and pricing before the spring farming season, thereby reinforcing the agricultural input security foundation for national food security [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Price Control Measures - The global price of sulfur resources has significantly increased this year, leading to a surge in raw material costs for fertilizer production in China, which poses severe pressure on winter reserves and spring farming fertilizers [1]. - Export control measures require sulfuric acid exporting companies to prioritize domestic market demand, reduce export volumes, and ensure that export prices do not fall below domestic prices [1]. - Price control measures set December 11 as the baseline price, mandating smelting acid producers to avoid unilateral price increases to ensure market stability [1]. Group 2: Industry Responsibility and Cooperation - The sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer industries are urged to recognize the importance of food security and fertilizer supply, enhancing their sense of responsibility and prioritizing supply and price stabilization as key tasks [2]. - The China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association are tasked with fulfilling industry self-regulation responsibilities, strengthening industry monitoring, and fully implementing supply and price stabilization measures [2]. - The meeting encourages smelting acid and phosphate fertilizer producers to establish stable upstream and downstream purchasing relationships through long-term sales agreements [2]. Group 3: Technological Promotion and Policy Support - The meeting also mentioned the promotion of phosphogypsum acid production technology and the coordination with relevant departments to study supportive measures [3].