Core Viewpoint - The city’s Development and Reform Commission is actively monitoring essential goods prices and supply to ensure stability and availability during the upcoming Spring Festival, aiming to create a joyful and harmonious festive atmosphere [1][3]. Group 1: Market Monitoring - The Development and Reform Commission has initiated a special price monitoring campaign for essential goods, focusing on major supermarkets, wholesale markets, and community convenience stores [1][3]. - Since early February, the commission has conducted multiple inspections to assess the supply and price trends of key items such as grains, oils, meats, eggs, and vegetables [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - Recent monitoring indicates a favorable market condition with sufficient supply, diverse product offerings, and stable prices for essential goods ahead of the festival [5]. - Wholesale markets and supermarkets have increased their logistics and inventory efforts, resulting in a noticeable rise in daily supply volumes for vegetables and pork compared to previous weeks [5]. Group 3: Price Stability - Current monitoring results show that grain and cooking oil prices remain stable, while pork prices are steady, with certain cuts like lean pork and leg meat maintaining their prices [7]. - Egg prices have seen a slight increase due to holiday demand, which is considered a normal seasonal fluctuation, and vegetable prices are stable with no significant abnormal increases [7]. Group 4: Future Measures - The Development and Reform Commission plans to implement a daily monitoring mechanism for essential goods prices during the holiday, ensuring early detection and response to any emerging issues [7]. - The commission will also focus on monitoring the pricing of subsidized vegetables to ensure they remain below market averages while maintaining quality and supply [7].

（来源：中国经济导报） 转自：中国经济导报 周晓文，海南省澄迈县发展改革委价格调控与收费管理室主任、三级主任科员，也是一名有着二十余年 价格工作经验的"老兵"。自1998年参加工作以来，她始终扎根价格工作一线，在平凡的岗位上履职尽 责、实干笃行，推动澄迈县价格调控与收费管理工作取得显著成效，先后3次获得"全国价格监测工作先 进个人"荣誉称号，用坚守与担当诠释着基层价格工作者的初心与使命。 价格监测是价格调控的基础，更是保供稳价的"前哨"，周晓文始终坚持把重要民生商品价格监测工作做 深、做细、做实。为确保监测数据的准确与及时，她坚持腿勤、手勤、脑勤，深入农贸市场、商超、田 间地头一线采集和核实数据，做到实地采价、认真汇总、严格审核，并第一时间发布监测数据，让群众 及时掌握民生商品价格动态。在做好数据采集发布的同时，她更注重价格监测分析，紧盯蔬菜等重要民 生商品的生产和市场供应情况，及时分析价格变化走势及幅度，针对市场情况开展专项调查，撰写多篇 调研报告，精准研判市场价格走势，为政府宏观调控决策提供详实、可靠的依据，为澄迈县保供稳价工 作的推进注入了坚实的专业力量。 "菜篮子"连着民心，是民生保障的重中之重，周晓 ...

"总的看，各地重要民生商品生产向好、货源充足，保障春节期间市场量足价稳具备坚实基础。"国家发 展改革委有关负责人分析，"米袋子"沉甸甸，去年粮食生产再获丰收，连续两年稳定在1.4万亿斤以 上，全国36个大中城市成品粮油储备可满足15天以上消费；"菜篮子"满当当，去年猪牛羊禽肉产量首次 超过1亿吨，当前肉类、鸡蛋产能充足；蔬菜在田面积同比稳中有增，随着"南菜北运"规模和北方设施 蔬菜上市量增加，市场供应将进一步丰富。 抓好生产流通，保障"供应足"。加强冬季农业生产防灾减灾，做好蔬菜等作物田间管理，补种、增种速 生绿叶菜等品种，助力增加市场供应。组织农产品批发市场、连锁商超、线上平台等积极对接主产区， 做好产销衔接，提前增加备货量，及时铺货上架。落实好鲜活农产品运输"绿色通道"政策，提升查验和 通行效率，协调解决道路受阻等问题，保障物流畅通。 聚焦终端环节，促进"价格稳"。启动蔬菜等政府储备投放，加大消费需求旺盛品种投放力度，满足群众 节前采购需要。发挥平价销售机制作用，依托连锁商超、社区菜店等渠道开展平价惠民销售。强化市场 监督检查，引导商户守法合规经营，严厉打击价格欺诈、哄抬价格等违法违规行为。 帮扶困难群众 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of maintaining market price order during the New Year and Spring Festival to protect consumer rights and ensure a peaceful holiday for the public [1] Group 2 - Market regulatory departments at both the league and city levels are focusing on key consumer spending areas, conducting special inspections on price market order before the Spring Festival, and randomly checking large supermarkets, agricultural markets, and restaurants offering New Year's Eve dinner packages [3] - The inspections specifically target essential daily necessities such as meat, eggs, milk, rice, flour, oil, and vegetables, while also monitoring the clear pricing of restaurant dinner packages [3] - Overall, the market price order remains stable according to the inspection results [3] Group 3 - Moving forward, market regulatory departments will enhance price supervision during the holiday period, increase inspection frequency, and improve complaint channels to combat illegal activities such as price gouging and unclear pricing [4] - The aim is to ensure a sufficient supply of essential goods and stable prices, thereby safeguarding consumer spending during the holiday [4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable prices and supply of essential goods during the 2026 Spring Festival to ensure a prosperous and harmonious celebration for the public [1][2] Group 1: Market Monitoring and Supply - The Shandong Province's Sishui County Development and Reform Bureau conducted a comprehensive price inspection and market research at major supermarkets and community stores to assess the supply and pricing of essential goods [1] - The inspection focused on key consumer items such as grains, oils, meats, eggs, vegetables, dairy, and fruits, ensuring sufficient inventory and smooth logistics to meet festive demand [1] - Current market conditions indicate that essential goods are well-stocked, with stable prices and no abnormal fluctuations detected [1] Group 2: Regulatory Measures and Future Actions - The Sishui County Development and Reform Bureau plans to enhance price monitoring and increase the frequency of inspections during the festive period to protect consumer rights [2] - The bureau aims to expand the coverage of market inspections and reinforce the importance of legal compliance and fair pricing among vendors [2] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to ensure that the county's residents enjoy a well-supplied, stable-priced, and joyful New Year celebration [2]

2026年春节期间 全市启动平价销售家数一览表 | 县(市、区) | 平价商店数量 (家) | 平价商店名称 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中闽百汇涂门街店 | | | | 大润发开元盛世广场店 | | 聲城区 | 5 | 大润发温陵店 | | | | 福德龙购物广场 | | | | 万家旺购物广场江南店 | | | | 永辉超市(城东店) | | | | 永辉超市(浦西万达店) | | | | 中闽百汇(泉秀店) | | 丰泽区 | | 中闽好生活超市(润华店) | | | 8 | 泉州市丰泽区京泰隆食品有限公司(京泰隆生鲜超市) | | | | 泉州市丰泽区金聚明选超市(家乐华超市湖心店) | | | | 泉州市丰泽区春华秋实超市(家乐华超市汉唐店) | | | | 泉州市刺桐汇商业管理有限公司(家乐华超市泉秀店) | | 洛江区 | 4 | 洛江大润发 | | | | 万安友谊 | | | | 河市万利隆平价商店 | | | | 马甲来福隆 | | 台商投资区 | र्वे | 泉州市兴源购物商场有限公司 | | | | 泉州市好易多商业管理有限公司 | | | | 泉州台商投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - Bullish: Methanol, Urea [3][37] - Bearish: LPG, L, PP, PVC, MEG, Asphalt, Glass, Soda Ash [1][15][19] - Neutral: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, PTA [1][6][26] 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East lead to short - term volatile and slightly stronger prices. However, the supply - surplus pattern remains, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, there is still downward pressure on oil prices [1][8]. - **LPG**: The cost - end oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances in the short term, but the geopolitical premium is decreasing. The supply of liquefied gas is decreasing, and the chemical demand support is weakening. The inventory shows some positive factors [1]. - **L**: The basis weakens, and the market is in a bearish consolidation. Linear production is at a high level, and the supply is expected to continue to increase, with a bearish fundamental outlook [15][18]. - **PP**: The cost of propane and propylene fluctuates strongly. The supply - demand drive is insufficient before the festival. The current supply - demand is weak, and the PDH profit is low, providing cost support [19][22]. - **PVC**: The decline space of liquid caustic soda is limited. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is at a low level, providing bottom - cost support. Short - term export rush continues, but high inventory restricts the upward space, and the market is expected to fluctuate before the festival [23][25]. - **PTA**: The valuation is reasonable, and the processing fee has improved. The supply - side device maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The 1 - 2 month inventory is slightly accumulated, but the overall expectation is positive [26][27]. - **MEG**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load increases, and the overseas device maintenance plan increases. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in 1 - 2 months. The short - term demand is under pressure, but the fundamentals are expected to improve in 3 - 4 months [29][30]. - **Methanol**: The domestic device starts to increase, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The demand shows signs of improvement, and the cost has support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [32][34]. - **Urea**: The overall start - up load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short term. However, as the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, the support is expected to weaken. The price is restricted by "export quota system" and "price stabilization policy" [37][38]. - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave in the United States decreases, and the demand - side support gradually weakens, resulting in a weakening gas price trend [41][44]. - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price fluctuates disorderly. The asphalt valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty increases. Attention should be paid to the import situation of asphalt raw materials [46][50]. - **Glass**: The warehouse receipts increase, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. Supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [51][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The warehouse receipts continue to increase. The real - estate demand is weak, and the heavy - alkali demand support is insufficient. The supply is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [55][58]. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Crude Oil - **Price**: WTI主力 fell 0.62% to $63.96/barrel, Brent主力 fell 0.35% to $68.8/barrel, and SC主力 rose 1.39% to 472.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains the production policy, and the production in the Middle East and the United States shows different trends. Indian imports increase, and the US inventory shows different changes in different types of oil [9]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short term, it fluctuates and adjusts, and the SC price range is [465 - 485] [10]. LPG - **Price**: On February 10, the PG main contract closed at 4203 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11][12]. - **Fundamentals**: It is mainly affected by the cost - end oil price. The supply is stable, the downstream chemical demand weakens, and the inventory accumulates [13]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. The PG price range is [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Price**: L05 closed at 6775 yuan/ton, up 0.8% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The basis weakens, and the linear production is at a high level. The supply is expected to increase, and the fundamental outlook is bearish [18]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in operation before the festival and pay attention to the verification after the festival. The L price range is [6650 - 6850] [18]. PP - **Price**: PP05 closed at 6678 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of propane and propylene fluctuates strongly. The supply - demand is weak, and the PDH profit is low, providing cost support [22]. - **Strategy**: Light - position and cautious operation before the festival. Pay attention to the future demand verification. The PP price range is [6600 - 6800] [22]. PVC - **Price**: V05 closed at 4971 yuan/ton, down 0.4% [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The decline space of liquid caustic soda is limited. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is at a low level, and the high inventory restricts the upward space. The market is expected to fluctuate before the festival [25]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation. The V price range is [4850 - 5050] [25]. PTA - **Price**: TA05 closed at 5166 yuan/ton, at the 85.7% quantile level in the past three months [27]. - **Fundamentals**: The valuation is reasonable, the supply - side device maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The 1 - 2 month inventory is slightly accumulated [27]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental expectation is positive. Pay attention to buying on significant pullbacks. The TA05 price range is [5110 - 5220] [28]. MEG - **Price**: EG05 closed at 3959 yuan/ton [29]. - **Fundamentals**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load increases, and the overseas device maintenance plan increases. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in 1 - 2 months [30]. - **Strategy**: Layout long positions on dips in the near - term. The EG05 price range is [3680 - 3780] [31]. Methanol - **Price**: The main contract is at a high valuation level in the past three months [34]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic device starts to increase, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The demand shows signs of improvement, and the cost has support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions. The MA05 price range is [2219 - 2369] [36]. Urea - **Price**: The main contract closed at 1776 yuan/ton, at the 77.8% quantile level in the past year [39]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall start - up load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short term. However, as the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, the support is expected to weaken. The price is restricted by "export quota system" and "price stabilization policy" [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in chasing up. The UR05 price range is [1760 - 1790] [40]. LNG - **Price**: On February 9, the NG main contract closed at $3.140/million British thermal units, down 7.78% [43]. - **Fundamentals**: The impact of the cold wave in the United States decreases, and the demand - side support gradually weakens, resulting in a weakening gas price trend [44]. - **Strategy**: The demand supports the gas price in the consumption peak season, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. The NG price range is [2.900 - 3.400] [45]. Asphalt - **Price**: On February 10, the BU main contract closed at 3343 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price fluctuates disorderly. The asphalt valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty increases. Attention should be paid to the import situation of asphalt raw materials [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and prevent risks. The BU price range is [3300 - 3400] [50]. Glass - **Price**: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, down 0.7% [52]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts increase, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. Supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [54]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in chasing up before the cold - repair is further implemented. The FG price range is [1040 - 1090] [54]. Soda Ash - **Price**: SA05 closed at 1171 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts continue to increase. The real - estate demand is weak, and the heavy - alkali demand support is insufficient. The supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies before the maintenance is further intensified. The SA price range is [1150 - 1200] [58].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力05合约收盘价1788元/吨，涨幅0.68%。现货市场多数上扬 | 宽幅 震荡 | | | ，昨日山东、河南市场价格均为1790元/吨，日环比分别上涨10元/吨、30元/吨。基本面来 | | | | 看，尿素供应水平仍在持续恢复，昨日行业日产量21.56万吨，日环比增0.16万吨。需求表现 | | | | 继续分化，部分假期订单较足的企业报价坚挺，订单 缺的企业仍有降价收单可能。短期 | | | | 市场成交也仍有 量支撑，但随着物流运力及市场成交氛围逐渐下降，企业库存也将累积 | | | | 。节前尿素基本面变化不大，现货市场逐步趋稳。期货盘面情绪受到周末印度招标、国际 | | | | 市场价格上涨等因素提振，表现偏强。我国出口政策暂时未有放松迹象，国内外价差利润 | | | | 及印度招标暂时与我国货源无关。 外，保供稳价政策导向在 季效应更加明显，尿素期 | | | | 货价格难有趋势性上涨行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Short position continues [1] - **PP**: Short position continues [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Short position continues [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Wait for the outcome of the US-Iran negotiation. Oil prices are adjusting oscillatory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the supply surplus pattern remains unturned. There is still downward pressure on oil prices [1]. - The cost support for LPG weakens, and the chemical demand also weakens, leading to a downward trend [1]. - The upstream inventory of L drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed, and the post - holiday verification situation should be concerned [1]. - PP follows the cost in the short term. The supply - demand is weak, and the supply pressure is relieved. The cost has support, and the subsequent demand verification situation should be concerned [1]. - The weekly export order volume of PVC weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [1]. - The valuation of PX/PTA is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. The outlook is positive [2]. - The valuation of MEG is overall low. The supply increases, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [2]. - The social and port inventories of methanol are being depleted. The supply is slightly loose, the demand improves, and the cost has support [3]. - The comprehensive profit of urea is good. The supply is under pressure, the demand is temporarily supported, and the price is range - bound under the policy [3]. - The cold wave weakens while the export increases, and the natural gas price is in consolidation [6]. - The asphalt valuation is high, the supply - demand is loose, and the demand enters the off - season, so the price has room for compression [6]. - The glass market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The inventory accumulates slightly, and the supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory [6]. - The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices adjusted oscillatory. WTI rose 0.41%, Brent rose 0.74%, and domestic SC fell 0.36% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, waiting for the outcome of the US - Iran negotiation. The core driving factor is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the global crude oil inventory is accumulating rapidly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains the production policy. The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East rises. The US crude oil production increases, and the production of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield recovers. India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. As of the week ending January 30, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.45 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 0.684 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 5.552 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 0.214 million barrels [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, it is in oscillatory adjustment, and the fluctuation increases. Pay attention to the geopolitical progress in the Middle East. SC focuses on the range of [460 - 480] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 6, the PG main contract closed at 4,228 yuan/ton, up 0.74% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,450 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,475 (+29) yuan/ton, and 4,830 (-15) yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price mainly depends on the cost - end oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but is under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, the downstream chemical demand weakens, and the inventory accumulates [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. PG focuses on the range of [4150 - 4250] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of L01, L05 (main contract), and L09 increased by 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 192 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 52 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream inventory drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed. The cost - end oil and ethane prices fall, the linear production remains at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: L focuses on the range of [6700 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP01, PP05 (main contract), and PP09 increased by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it follows the cost. The off - season leads to inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The supply - demand is weak, the shutdown ratio is 20%, the supply pressure is relieved, and the cost has support. Pay attention to the subsequent demand verification [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PP focuses on the range of [6550 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of V01, V05 (main contract), and V09 decreased by 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Basic Logic**: The weekly export order volume weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit remains at a low level, and the bottom cost has support. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: V focuses on the range of [4850 - 5050] [27]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January - February, but the outlook is positive [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to the capital behavior. Buy on significant pullbacks for the 05 contract and control the position. TA05 focuses on the range of [5110 - 5220] [30]. MEG - **Market Review**: The prices of EG05, EG11, and EG01 changed. The main contract's basis was - 113 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 114 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic supply load increases, the overseas device maintenance increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - month contract on dips. EG05 focuses on the range of [3680 - 3780] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The import volume in January is 125.9wt. The demand stops falling, and the cost has weak support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, and the geopolitical conflict is still uncertain [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The import volume in January slightly exceeds expectations, the domestic start - up maintains a high level, and the port inventory is slightly depleted. The demand stops falling. Hold long positions. MA05 focuses on the range of [2219 - 2369] [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,776 yuan/ton, at the 77.8% quantile level in the past year. The Shandong small - particle basis is 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, the supply pressure is large, the demand is temporarily supported, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Under the "export quota system" and "supply - guarantee and price - stabilization" policy, the price has a ceiling and a floor [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply and demand are both strong, but the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focuses on the range of [1760 - 1790] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 5, the NG main contract closed at 3.516 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.68% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.630 (-0.690) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 12.602 (-0.415) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3,896 (-18) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold wave impact on the US natural gas price has gradually subsided. The domestic LNG retail profit increases. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand in Japan decreases. The US natural gas inventory decreases [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. NG focuses on the range of [2.979 - 3.522] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 6, the BU main contract closed at 3,386 yuan/ton, up 1.41% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,240 (-10) yuan/ton, 3,270 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the oil price is oscillatory and strong. The asphalt comprehensive profit decreases. The supply decreases in February, the demand increases in 2025, and the inventory rises [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply uncertainty increases. Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks. BU focuses on the range of [3300 - 3400] [51]. Glass - **Market Review**: The prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 decreased by 1.0%, 1.5%, and 1.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [53][54]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. The inventory accumulates slightly, the demand enters the off - season, and the daily melting volume drops. The supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before the cold - repair is further implemented [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1030 - 1080] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 decreased by 1.1%, 1.6%, and 1.6% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure due to the new production and maintenance. Short - sell on rallies before the maintenance further intensifies [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on the range of [1150 - 1200] [59].

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