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阳光电源:大单确收+抢出口,25Q1业绩超预期-20250428
HTSC· 2025-04-28 05:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 77.857 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.76%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.036 billion RMB, up 16.92% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous expectations due to strong profitability in the energy storage business [1][5]. - The company is a global leader in the solar and energy storage industry, with a significant increase in domestic and international orders since 2024, providing strong support for performance in 2025 [1][5]. - The company’s energy storage revenue reached 24.96 billion RMB in 2024, a 40.3% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.7%, driven by cost reductions in manufacturing and battery cells [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 27.911 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47%. The net profit for the same period was 3.437 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 19.036 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 51%, while the net profit reached 3.826 billion RMB, up 83% year-on-year [2]. Energy Storage Segment - The company’s energy storage shipments in 2024 reached 28 GWh, a significant increase of 167% year-on-year, with an estimated sales volume of 25 GWh, leading to a unit price of approximately 0.96 RMB per Wh, down 43% year-on-year due to battery cell price reductions [3]. - In Q1 2025, energy storage shipments surged to 12 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 470%, maintaining profitability levels similar to 2024, primarily due to confirmed revenue from the Saudi energy storage project and export activities to the U.S. [3]. Photovoltaic Inverter Segment - The company’s revenue from photovoltaic inverters in 2024 was 29.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with a gross margin of 30.9% [4]. - The sales volume of photovoltaic inverters reached 147 GW in 2024, a 13% increase year-on-year, with a unit price of approximately 0.20 RMB per W, down 7% year-on-year [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 12.025 billion RMB, 13.557 billion RMB, and 15.209 billion RMB respectively, with a target price of 92.80 RMB based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025 [5][9].
电力设备及新能源行业:光伏电池组件逆变器出口月报(25年3月)
Great Wall Securities· 2025-04-22 06:55
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The inverter growth trend is stabilizing, and there are signs of recovery in battery components. In March 2025, China's total export value of solar battery modules was $2.463 billion, down 23.5% year-on-year but up 47.8% month-on-month, corresponding to an export volume of 31.80 GW, which is an increase of 8.7% year-on-year and 46.3% month-on-month. The export of solar battery components to Europe reached 8.1 GW, the highest in recent months, while exports to markets outside Europe amounted to 23.7 GW, up 23.84% year-on-year [2] - In March 2025, the total export value of inverters was $633 million, up 5.68% year-on-year, with an export scale of 3.7324 million units, an increase of 12.83% year-on-year. The recovery of downstream demand in Europe and the restoration of channel inventory have contributed to this growth [2] Summary by Sections Export Data - In March 2025, the export volume of solar modules to various countries included: Netherlands 3.05 GW (-37.27% YoY, +28.85% MoM), Spain 0.84 GW (+10.22% YoY, +116.00% MoM), Germany 0.33 GW (-24.41% YoY, +50.29% MoM), and others [14] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the solar storage industry has experienced a decline in prosperity over the past year, but 2024 may represent a bottoming out for industry profits. The demand for grid parity and energy transition remains a fundamental driver for solar storage installations globally [4]